Franklin0529 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 On 1/28/2021 at 10:35 PM, RedSky said: A little more concerning and serious the GEFS are east Expand West of the 12z gefs Slowly making it's way to the euro an eps 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mshaffer526 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 On 1/28/2021 at 10:49 PM, Franklin0529 said: West of the 12z gefs Slowly making it's way to the euro an eps Expand Northern precipitation extent just got chopped considerably. Would like that trend reversed soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 On 1/28/2021 at 10:35 PM, RedSky said: A little more concerning and serious the GEFS are east Expand Fully expecting the Euro to cave to the GFS tonight. Classic Charlie Brown and Lucy football thing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Fwiw the GEFS clustering was farther W than 12z and more of a classic track for SE PA. Like someone said above, the overall precip got chopped on an already disjointed model family tho and that is cause for concern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 28, 2021 Author Share Posted January 28, 2021 The trend within 3 days this winter has been to weaken the confluence, resulting in a more north storm. Even if 0z models keep going south this is far from over. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 On 1/28/2021 at 11:08 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: Fully expecting the Euro to cave to the GFS tonight. Classic Charlie Brown and Lucy football thing. Expand Shouldn't have said that cuz 18z ECM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Howard Eskin says 6 inches in the city if we are lucky on WIP this evening. He said the main show will be Monday but it will likely only be a one day event. Also said any idiot can be a meteorologist and that he'd have his license in a year. Okay Howie... 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 On 1/29/2021 at 12:29 AM, RedSky said: Shouldn't have said that cuz 18z ECM Expand you got maps? I only am out to 54 on my site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 On 1/29/2021 at 12:30 AM, The Iceman said: Howard Eskin says 6 inches in the city if we are lucky on WIP this evening. He said the main show will be Monday but it will likely only be a one day event. Also said any idiot can be a meteorologist and that he'd have his license in a year. Okay Howie... Expand The new Eskin and DT radio show folks just imagine that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 On 1/29/2021 at 12:34 AM, The Iceman said: you got maps? I only am out to 54 on my site. Expand Don't have it but the MA crew like it's south and eastness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 On 1/29/2021 at 12:30 AM, The Iceman said: Howard Eskin says 6 inches in the city if we are lucky on WIP this evening. He said the main show will be Monday but it will likely only be a one day event. Also said any idiot can be a meteorologist and that he'd have his license in a year. Okay Howie... Expand I heard Howard as well. He did sound stupid overall but the 6" in the city may pan out, it's not a crazy solution. He's off on the duration though.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 On 1/29/2021 at 12:29 AM, RedSky said: Shouldn't have said that cuz 18z ECM Expand Inevitable. We've played this game before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 On 1/29/2021 at 12:36 AM, RedSky said: Don't have it but the MA crew like it's south and eastness Expand Sounds like a complete cave to GFS over there and an unmitigated disaster brewing. Only 3.5 more days to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 On 1/29/2021 at 12:43 AM, Ralph Wiggum said: Inevitable. We've played this game before Expand Every 6 hours it's Russian roulette what a hobby 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just saw the 18z...uh oh. Like all other guidance today the WAA thump for us is basically gone. Really close to missing the capture too but doesn't go out that far. We could do a double fail missing the WAA then missing the coastal Miller B so the Mid Atl gets crushed with WAA and recurve N to crush NYC and Bos with the coastal. If this is a prelude to 0z we are in deep shit. Eta: somebody take Brady behind the shed...quickly. And @Birds~69 needs to stop celebrating with shots immediately. Save that for during the event. The winter weather gods are fricken pissed! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 A UKMET coup is unheard of there's no way 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 On 1/28/2021 at 8:44 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: Watch this piece in future runs...if something screws this up that will be the piece. It is diving S and causes the confluence to not only tighten up but nudge S this run. Expand Aaand guess what feature the 18z euro is picking up on causing the confluence to press S? EE rule never fails. Ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 18z eps mean is plain fugly. Congrats S NJ....sorry N and W of i95 crew. No capture and off she goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 windshield wipers folks.....truth is in between.....quick reminder models are not forecasts....only guidance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 18z GFS mean - not far from my thoughts - not too shabby 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 On 1/29/2021 at 1:14 AM, ChescoWx said: windshield wipers folks.....truth is in between.....quick reminder models are not forecasts....only guidance. Expand I hope your are right, but all signs are starting to lean against a capture now across guidance...slower transfer, farther South, confluence pressing South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 On 1/29/2021 at 1:16 AM, ChescoWx said: 18z GFS mean - not far from my thoughts - not too shabby Expand 18z EPS mean: One of these is going to fail like never witnessed before. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 ^What time was that made/released? DTs Map.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 18z EPS mean - significant snows still there....just saying - blockbuster I have never believed that significant 6" plus certainly on the table for most on here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Confluence was never going to be a factor possibly better sampling from the low crashing inland 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 On 1/29/2021 at 1:18 AM, Ralph Wiggum said: 18z EPS mean: One of these is going to fail like never witnessed before. Expand Steve not sure what you are looking at but 5" to 9" between both of those mean runs....nothing bad about that at this time frame IMO 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Anybody have a clue we have an exiting arctic high how the heck did confluence become a factor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Ok....regroup time. The progressive NAVGEM is a complete capture coast hugger that slams us. So that has to be worth something. Eta: nevermind that was 12z. 18z is missing the capture and stays south. Confluence ftl...damn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 On 1/29/2021 at 1:27 AM, Ralph Wiggum said: Ok....regroup time. The progressive NAVGEM is a complete capture coast hugger that slams us. So that has to be worth something. Expand Shot and a beer? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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