LVblizzard Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Looks like this is becoming a serious threat with decent model agreement. Could be a long-duration storm too, tonight’s CMC shows nearly 2 days straight of precip from Sunday night to Tuesday afternoon. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 This week we had a PD1 look get squished by a polar vortex eddy now next Monday has a PD2 look. Let's try not to screw this one up. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Archambault event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 On 1/26/2021 at 4:46 AM, MJO812 said: Archambault event Expand Cripes don't jinx this anymore, it's already got an early storm thread for that 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Wow, this thread/threat started early. So much time for things to go wrong... 31F/Nothing falling from the sky 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Post is epic thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 0z ECM is the run I have dreams about. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Almost 36hrs from first flakes to last we take 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 That euro was insane. Best widespread look since 96 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Third wave always holds the best potential and couple that progression with an Archambault event and we may be talking legit KU in another couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 On 1/26/2021 at 6:58 AM, Ralph Wiggum said: That euro was insane. Best widespread look since 96 Expand A few years after that 2016. I got my digital dream run for 2021 I don't even need ground truth. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 On 1/26/2021 at 7:03 AM, RedSky said: A few years after that 2016. I got my digital dream run for 2021 I don't even need ground truth. Expand I feel like Ji tonight...a major accomplishment via digital snow. I think I finally get a sense for what the guy feels. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 starting a thread this early. Almost certainly a fail now, just wait for it. It'll probably be 48 hours out but just watch there will be something as we get closer and this will be a good storm for either north or south of us. I honestly don't care what any of the models show this far out. It's fantasy land. Gfs is a light rain storm... That'll be the outcome, lock it in. The euro loves to give blizzards in the day 7 range. It showed one for this Thursday in the same time frame. It'll be gone by day 4 just like the last 2 threats. 1 1 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 On 1/26/2021 at 10:16 AM, The Iceman said: starting a thread this early. Almost certainly a fail now, just wait for it. It'll probably be 48 hours out but just watch there will be something as we get closer and this will be a good storm for either north or south of us. I honestly don't care what any of the models show this far out. It's fantasy land. Gfs is a light rain storm... That'll be the outcome, lock it in. The euro loves to give blizzards in the day 7 range. It showed one for this Thursday in the same time frame. It'll be gone by day 4 just like the last 2 threats. Expand Third time is the charm. We might not be the bullseye when all is said and done but we are getting some snow out of this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 On 1/26/2021 at 10:16 AM, The Iceman said: starting a thread this early. Almost certainly a fail now, just wait for it. It'll probably be 48 hours out but just watch there will be something as we get closer and this will be a good storm for either north or south of us. I honestly don't care what any of the models show this far out. It's fantasy land. Gfs is a light rain storm... That'll be the outcome, lock it in. The euro loves to give blizzards in the day 7 range. It showed one for this Thursday in the same time frame. It'll be gone by day 4 just like the last 2 threats. Expand All but 1 member of the EPS is honking. That is more support for this at this range than I've seen since 2016. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 On 1/26/2021 at 12:46 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: All but 1 member of the EPS is honking. That is more support for this at this range than I've seen since 2016. Expand Eps mean had me at nearly 6 inches for today at one point in the same range. It's really fools errand to get invested in any threat outside 5 days this year. There has always been some feature that isn't picked up on in that range and it screws our chances. The theme this month has been shredded out and south when we get into the day 4-5 range. We ll see how it looks in 3 days... 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 We tracking another SNE snowstorm this week? Sign me up! Should be another I-90 special. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 On 1/26/2021 at 1:06 PM, The Iceman said: Eps mean had me at nearly 6 inches for today at one point in the same range. It's really fools errand to get invested in any threat outside 5 days this year. There has always been some feature that isn't picked up on in that range and it screws our chances. The theme this month has been shredded out and south when we get into the day 4-5 range. We ll see how it looks in 3 days... Expand But that was skewed severely. There were hints with this system that it would shear out. More likely we get something early next week than not. Just a question of how much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 On 1/26/2021 at 2:04 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: But that was skewed severely. There were hints with this system that it would shear out. More likely we get something early next week than not. Just a question of how much. Expand Gfs and it's ensembles are consistent with the snow to rain scenario. That's my guess on what will end up happening with the storm coming in from Ohio and the secondary hugging the coast. Still has the potential for a nice thump unless it shears out over us like today... Still way too early to know what that thump will look like but I agree at least we should see some snow... Edit: Para gfs with the same idea as the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 MA forum starting to crack due to the 12z GFS, quite entertaining to watch it unfold. Probably suicidal thoughts if the Euro caves... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 If the CMC is north like both GFS its trouble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 On 1/26/2021 at 4:33 PM, RedSky said: If the CMC is north like the GFS its trouble Expand Not north but a sheared out mess that comes together just in time for sne. little snow for all around here and the mid atlantic. Add it to the list of possibilities on how we fail with this one. Honestly the cmc is pretty believable based on the pattern this month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 ICON is almost to north if its the euro vs the gang we know how that ends 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Furrawn Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Please post weather the weather model runs you’re loving if it isn’t too much trouble though I might well be the only one who isn’t good at finding them on my own. I’ve been excited since I read Ralph’s posts here last night. The possibility is wonderful fun regardless of whether we get some snow or a ton from the storm. I’ve intended to learn for awhile now and am finally taking a Harvard (Free- using EdX) “Backyard Meteorology” online course. I learned about isobars yesterday:) I’m light-years behind all of you, but weather is one of my favorite things. I know weather (I was over the moon the first time I saw graupel), but I don’t know the science behind it.... or the science behind that:) I’m learning though:) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 At least the CMC has the ECM track although it's much weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Not the start to 12z I was looking for 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 On 1/26/2021 at 4:40 PM, Furrawn said: Please post weather the weather model runs you’re loving if it isn’t too much trouble though I might well be the only one who isn’t good at finding them on my own. I’ve been excited since I read Ralph’s posts here last night. The possibility is wonderful fun regardless of whether we get some snow or a ton from the storm. I’ve intended to learn for awhile now and am finally taking a Harvard (Free- using EdX) “Backyard Meteorology” online course. I learned about isobars yesterday:) I’m light-years behind all of you, but weather is one of my favorite things. I know weather (I was over the moon the first time I saw graupel), but I don’t know the science behind it.... or the science behind that:) I’m learning though:) Expand Welcome to the board! Here are the 2 free sites I use to model watch. I also have a subscription though for the euro and eps. Tropical tidbits: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2021012612&fh=162 Pivotal weather: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc&rh=2021012612&fh=6&r=conus&dpdt=&mc= Feel free to ask questions whenever! I know I'm a bit down on these threats but I still enjoy tracking them 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Here's the 12z icon weenie map special for furrawn if only this came true... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Ukie is rolling really need that one on board 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 On 1/26/2021 at 4:25 PM, Birds~69 said: MA forum starting to crack due to the 12z GFS, quite entertaining to watch it unfold. Probably suicidal thoughts if the Euro caves... Expand Storms multiple days away and tossing in the towel already... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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