michsnowfreak Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 8 hours ago, RogueWaves said: Abysmal winter continues. Never covered the grass blades. Scratched my way to a solid 1" And I mean we've yet to hide the grass here one time. Not a street plow to be seen. Is this SOH?? Hope it gets better for you. It's bound to. That's got to be one of the biggest screwholes of Michigan this season. Usually finds a way to balance out. We have not covered all the grass tips either in January, have had multiple days with 1" on the ground but not more than that. In December we had probably about 10 days were all the grass was fully covered. Today our inch is a glacier and the shoveled or plowed snow from yesterday like boulders. My call for this event 2 days before the event was 2-5" for here and 8-12" for my brother who lives in downtown Chicago. I usually go conservative as i never follow the kuchera maps or anything like that. For instance on Christmas I told my family we would probably end up with 1-2 so disregard calls for only flurries, but I ended up busting low by more than double. This event however I ended up with 1.3" and my brother estimates around 4" which is more or less confirmed by mcmillan. Onto the next one, get this one out of the memory bank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 flurriez Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 LES struggling more than I thought it would at this time. Going to need a fairly quick ramp up to get to forecasted amounts in central/southern Cook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 33 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: you are my twin lol. only for Toronto instead of Detroit 7 billion people on this planet. With Twitter, fb, boards like this you get to see the ubiquity of snow-weenism. Back when I was a kid, I thought I was the only one. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: LES struggling more than I thought it would at this time. Going to need a fairly quick ramp up to get to forecasted amounts in central/southern Cook. there appears to be alot of low level stratus over the lake per visible the one weak band, which isn't very tall, is even casting shadows on them I suspect inversion layer is lower then expected at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 New winter product keeps LES advisory going new LOT Aviation update OR THE 18Z TAFS... THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS REVOLVES AROUND A PENCIL-THIN BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW TAKING AIM AT MDW AND EVENTUALLY GYY. OTHERWISE, GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE AFOREMENTIONED PENCIL-THIN BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS CURRENTLY ENTERING NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS JUST NORTH OF DOWNTOWN CHICAGO, AND HAS SHOWN RECENT SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION WITH POCKETS OF RADAR REFLECTIVITY VALUES NOW APPROACHING 25-30 DBZ. SUCH VALUES WOULD CORRESPOND TO VISIBILITY DROPS AS LOW AS 1 MILE (IF NOT A SMIDGE LOWER). THE EYE TEST SUGGESTS THE BAND WILL LIKELY GET WITHIN A 5 MILE RADIUS OF MDW, BUT PERHAPS STAY A SLIVER EAST OF THE ACTUAL AIRFIELD. HOWEVER, LITTLE WIGGLES WESTWARD MAY AFFORD BRIEF DROPS IN VISIBILITY TO A MILE. THE BAND IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT EASTWARD LATER THIS AFTERNOON TOWARD GYY, AND EVENTUALLY FURTHER EAST INTO NORTHWESTERN INDIANA. ALL IN ALL, THE INHERITED TEMPO GROUP REMAINS APPROPRIATE WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING REQUIRED. AT ORD, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE BAND TO SWING WEST IS VERY LOW. EVEN SO, OCCASIONAL SPITS OF FLURRIES CAN'T BE RULED OUT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just flurries today downtown. Obviously not amounting to anything but keeping the wintry feel alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 DAB on the northside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 35 minutes ago, mimillman said: Just flurries today downtown. Obviously not amounting to anything but keeping the wintry feel alive. the band is looking a little better but for some reason the echoes weaken as they approach the shore also there is an east push noticeable off Lake county IL now central Cook county may have missed the window Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Lol...this was to whiff New England but BOS gets close to 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, weathafella said: Lol...this was to whiff New England but BOS gets close to 5. classic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Lol...this was to whiff New England but BOS gets close to 5.The New England subforum weenies meltdowning their way to a decent little event lol. A tradition like no other. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Advisory for lake effect was cancelled. Would be interesting to see why this underperformed, but I've pretty much moved on to the upcoming storm. I mean we knew the parameters weren't that great but the suite of CAMs were hitting on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 18 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said: Ah you ninja'ed me. Are the 1991-2020 numbers out? 18 hours ago, Snowstorms said: Nah, I created a spreadsheet of every winter since records began at YYZ LOL. Re your last post. That November storm was pre sweet. Widespread 8-10". I'll be happy if we can have a 4th consecutive winter >100cm. That last time we had 4 consecutive 100cm winters was back in the 70s. I also did some recent analysis -- with emphasis on the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) relationship. Here's what I found out: 1) Toronto YYZ had an average annual snowfall (1979-2020 climatology) of ~108cm with a standard deviation of ~33cm. 2) When DJF ONI > 0.5 (El Nino), 5 years had above normal snowfall and 10 were below normal (1979 - 2020) 3) When DJF ONI < -0.5 (La Nina), 10 years were above normal and 5 years below normal (1979 - 2020) Average seasonal snowfall by decade: 1970s: 139.2cm 1980s: 101.3cm 1990s: 103.0cm 2000s: 121.1cm 2010s: ~115.2cm 50 year average (1970 - 2020): ~116cm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Getting some steady light snow now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Advisory for lake effect was cancelled. Would be interesting to see why this underperformed, but I've pretty much moved on to the upcoming storm. I mean we knew the parameters weren't that great but the suite of CAMs were hitting on it.Forecasting any snow is challenging, forecasting lake effect is when more challenging. Red flags I saw were the somewhat middling EL heights and deltas not off the charts. Have seen worse parameters perform when low level lift and convergence are forecast to compensate. I'm not sure why the band once it got going it struggled to push inland at all. Interested in if anyone has any theories/explanations as to why. Overall disappointed it didn't work out, but that's how it goes with LES, you win some and you lose more lol. Certainly a poor performance by the CAMs and a win for the Euro which was never excited about today. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Props to the euro on this one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said: Forecasting any snow is challenging, forecasting lake effect is when more challenging. Red flags I saw were the somewhat middling EL heights and deltas not off the charts. Have seen worse parameters perform when low level lift and convergence are forecast to compensate. I'm not sure why the band once it got going it struggled to push inland at all. Interested in if anyone has any theories/explanations as to why. Overall disappointed it didn't work out, but that's how it goes with LES, you win some and you lose more lol. Certainly a poor performance by the CAMs and a win for the Euro which was never excited about today. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk I've always treated the Euro as basically just another global when it comes to lake effect... see whether it has a signal and then lean more on other guidance for details such as amounts and placement. Despite its performance this time, not sure I'd rely on it more than the CAMs over the long haul. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Getting some better inland penetration now, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 59 minutes ago, mimillman said: Props to the euro on this one. Props especially to its ensemble mean from way out. There's a reason we don't trust one operational over another from day 3+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said: Forecasting any snow is challenging, forecasting lake effect is when more challenging. Red flags I saw were the somewhat middling EL heights and deltas not off the charts. Have seen worse parameters perform when low level lift and convergence are forecast to compensate. I'm not sure why the band once it got going it struggled to push inland at all. Interested in if anyone has any theories/explanations as to why. Overall disappointed it didn't work out, but that's how it goes with LES, you win some and you lose more lol. Certainly a poor performance by the CAMs and a win for the Euro which was never excited about today. Some of the aircraft soundings showed a decent amount of shear with N winds at 850 and ENE winds heading towards the surface. That's really all we could think of today. Strangely, I drove through a moderate snow shower (possibly graupel) that lasted a minute or two on the way home this afternoon, not too far SSW of ORD. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 4 hours ago, RCNYILWX said: The New England subforum weenies meltdowning their way to a decent little event lol. A tradition like no other. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk We have some hall of famers for sure! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 22 hours ago, blizzardof96 said: I also did some recent analysis -- with emphasis on the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) relationship. Here's what I found out: 1) Toronto YYZ had an average annual snowfall (1979-2020 climatology) of ~108cm with a standard deviation of ~33cm. 2) When DJF ONI > 0.5 (El Nino), 5 years had above normal snowfall and 10 were below normal (1979 - 2020) 3) When DJF ONI < -0.5 (La Nina), 10 years were above normal and 5 years below normal (1979 - 2020) Average seasonal snowfall by decade: 1970s: 139.2cm 1980s: 101.3cm 1990s: 103.0cm 2000s: 121.1cm 2010s: ~115.2cm 50 year average (1970 - 2020): ~116cm Amazing analysis, great work. The 1980's and early 90's were just bad snow wise. Primary reason why the 40-year average is 108cm. But then you got the 1970’s that were exceptionally snowy. As per your analysis, moderate-strong El Nino's and strong La Nina's are usually snowless for us. Ideally, we'd want a weak-moderate La Nina. Weak Nino's aren't bad either as per your chart but it's a mix bag. I'd reckon the 80's and 90's Nino's were bad. Aside from 2006-07 and 2009-10, all other Nino's weren't bad since 2000. Excluding 2015-16 because it was a strong El Nino. Cold neutrals just seem bad but to be fair, I don't think we've had a neutral winter since 2013-14 and before that 2012-13 and 2003-04 no? The 1980's and early 90's just seem like anomalies in an otherwise consistent trend. However, we've seen a handful of warm winters in the last 15-20 years, more than any other decade. Do you think that's the new norm or just a cycle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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