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Jan 25-26th Potential Something Part 3


Chicago Storm
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Just now, snowstormcanuck said:

Ah you ninja'ed me.  Are the 1991-2020 numbers out?

Nah, I created a spreadsheet of every winter since records began at YYZ LOL. 

Re your last post. That November storm was pre sweet. Widespread 8-10". I'll be happy if we can have a 4th consecutive winter >100cm. That last time we had 4 consecutive 100cm winters was back in the 70s. 

930730723_snowfallaverages.png.b971da06bf963c2c829aa7ce0cae1196.png

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1 minute ago, Snowstorms said:

Nah, I created a spreadsheet of every winter since records began at YYZ LOL. 

Re your last post. That November storm was pre sweet. Widespread 8-10". I'll be happy if we can have a 4th consecutive winter >100cm. That last time we had 4 consecutive 100cm winters was back in the 70s. 

930730723_snowfallaverages.png.b971da06bf963c2c829aa7ce0cae1196.png

Very cool.  We've gone back up!

Yeah, it could very well be 4 consecutive "good" winters in a row, done in stealthy Toronto fashion.  :lol:

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Just now, snowstormcanuck said:

Very cool.  We've gone back up!

Yeah, it could very well be 4 consecutive "good" winters in a row, done in stealthy Toronto fashion.  :lol:

It's kind of messy rn. I'm planning to clean it up over the next few days. I can definitely share it with you once I finish up. :). Our February average has gone way up. Let's see if we continue that trend this year. Since 2011, we've averaged close to 37cm. 

Stealthy Toronto fashion. Has a nice ring to it. :lol:

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17 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Made an estimated snow map for our event page. LOT CWA posters...Is this reasonably accurate? I can tweak it if there's anything glaring.

 

51525b8748f524a15fe1c6185cd0f19a.jpg&key=5665d558e4bacc7fac8b27c03d608b59385be99541ea87707435898d82e661ef

 

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Just wanted to say that I have always appreciated (including when I lived in Western Michigan) your interaction with individuals on here. I think it's awesome you're willing to get input from others on here. Admirable. 

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Is the lake effect for tomorrow being discussed on here? Debating between an SPS and a WWA. In addition to the HRRR (which as we know is usually overdone with LES), the 00z HRWs smoke Cook County. Kind of concerning to just have a SPS but also these setups are always low confidence. Was leaning SPS but I'd be lying if I said I feel good about it either way lol.

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5 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Is the lake effect for tomorrow being discussed on here? Debating between an SPS and a WWA. In addition to the HRRR (which as we know is usually overdone with LES), the 00z HRWs smoke Cook County. Kind of concerning to just have a SPS but also these setups are always low confidence. Was leaning SPS but I'd be lying if I said I feel good about it either way lol.

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WWA is a more eye-catching disclaimer (both for online & local news media), but if low confidence & it doesn’t pan out, would that put low faith in future WWA postings from the public? If in your shoes, I would probably lean SPS with the option to upgrade to an advisory if LES is shown to materialize.

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11 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Is the lake effect for tomorrow being discussed on here? Debating between an SPS and a WWA. In addition to the HRRR (which as we know is usually overdone with LES), the 00z HRWs smoke Cook County. Kind of concerning to just have a SPS but also these setups are always low confidence. Was leaning SPS but I'd be lying if I said I feel good about it either way lol.

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We've been posting about it here so might as well stay in this thread.  And yeah, congrats South Chicago on those runs or in the case of the NSSL WRF, congrats downtown.

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56 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Made an estimated snow map for our event page. LOT CWA posters...Is this reasonably accurate? I can tweak it if there's anything glaring.

 

51525b8748f524a15fe1c6185cd0f19a.jpg&key=5665d558e4bacc7fac8b27c03d608b59385be99541ea87707435898d82e661ef

 

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

 

 

 

 

Yeah, measured a bit shy of 4" in Bridgeport neighborhood today so spot on for here too.

Don't post often but enjoy following all of the insights from you and others

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RC's lake effect disco.  Went with SPS for now.

 

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
935 PM CST Tue Jan 26 2021

.UPDATE...
930 PM CST

The main focus is on lake effect snow for parts of northeast
Illinois and northwest Indiana on Wednesday. An SPS was just
issued to alert of the potential for travel impacts due to rapid
changes in conditions over short distances, including periods of
poor visibility and snow and/or slush on some roads. Some of the
00z CAM guidance is rather concerning tomorrow morning, but given
typically lower confidence in these scenarios on the west and far
south side of the lake, opted for SPS issuance as opposed to
Winter Weather Advisory. If it becomes apparent in analysis
overnight that the lake effect snow will become single banded with
moderate to heavy rates AND stall out for 2-3 hours+, then needing
a WWA is a good bet. Just wasn`t confident enough to make that
call this evening.

A dual banded structure of light lake effect snw showers have
drifted into Lake and eastern Porter Counties this evening. The
appearance on radar is not too impressive and a look at soundings
indicates that lift is on the weaker side, which should be the
case through the night. This will change on Wednesday morning as a
clipper-type mid-level short-wave will approach the region and
induce some cold advection down the length of Lake Michigan, with
850 mb temps cooling down to -11 to -13C. given the unusually mild
lake surface temps, this will bring 850 mb to lake delta Ts of up
to 15C and lake induced CAPE of 100-150 j/kg. As a con to the
setup that has been noted over the past few days, lake induced
equilibrium levels (inversion heights) are not all that
impressive, topping out at 5kft-6.5kft, depending on the model
sounding you look at (which means DGZ will only be partially
saturated). Also, while the delta Ts are more supportive than
would typically be the case with that air mass over the lake in
late January, still not extremely favorable.

On the other hand, what we will likely have in place to possibly
compensate for the somewhat negating factors of the setup is very
good lake induced low level convergence and strong lower level
omega (lift) due to the convective processes and large ascent
from the short-wave trough. Have noted that in the past at times
setups on the southwest to extreme southern tip of the lake can
perform better than expected from more marginal ELs in the
presence of very favorable convergence and low level lift. Adding
to this concern from past events is the 00z CAM guidance,
including the high-res WRFs (locally 6"+ on ARW!) and the HRRR
(though HRRR has been mostly overdone with LES this season).

All the above being said, the big question as always comes down
to residence time of the band over given locations. Feel fairly
confident that at least moderate to briefly heavy rates will
accompany the activity, but lower confidence on the all importance
residence time question. It appears the convergence will
retrograde the activity from current location into portions of
eastern Cook County and affecting downwind areas of eastern Will
and possibly eastern DuPage and northeast Will as well. The lake
effect band(s) would then eventually migrate back into Lake IN and
then Porter later Wednesday PM. With the above concerns, hit the
messaging harder in already issued SPS and plan to issue a graphic
shortly highlighting these concerns. Will brief midnight shift on
the potential and depending how trends emerge will dictate whether
a WWA is needed in the early morning.
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10 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said:

What a dog's breakfast of a storm here.  Even King Euro mishandled the placement of the defo band snows. 

Won't know for sure until the final number's out, but with today's coating YYZ up to around 30" on the season.  2020-21 could very well be like last year: end up with 55" but damned if you can remember how.

Final number at YYZ: 3.6” (9.2 cm)

Season to date: 30.6” (77.8 cm)

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13 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

Nah, I created a spreadsheet of every winter since records began at YYZ LOL. 

Re your last post. That November storm was pre sweet. Widespread 8-10". I'll be happy if we can have a 4th consecutive winter >100cm. That last time we had 4 consecutive 100cm winters was back in the 70s. 

930730723_snowfallaverages.png.b971da06bf963c2c829aa7ce0cae1196.png

you are my twin lol. only for Toronto instead of Detroit 

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