snowstormcanuck Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, Snowstorms said: Final total of ~3.0" at YYZ. That should bump YYZ up to 30" for the season and only 14.5" from our new (1991-2020) seasonal average. Ah you ninja'ed me. Are the 1991-2020 numbers out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, snowstormcanuck said: Ah you ninja'ed me. Are the 1991-2020 numbers out? Nah, I created a spreadsheet of every winter since records began at YYZ LOL. Re your last post. That November storm was pre sweet. Widespread 8-10". I'll be happy if we can have a 4th consecutive winter >100cm. That last time we had 4 consecutive 100cm winters was back in the 70s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 minute ago, Snowstorms said: Nah, I created a spreadsheet of every winter since records began at YYZ LOL. Re your last post. That November storm was pre sweet. Widespread 8-10". I'll be happy if we can have a 4th consecutive winter >100cm. That last time we had 4 consecutive 100cm winters was back in the 70s. Very cool. We've gone back up! Yeah, it could very well be 4 consecutive "good" winters in a row, done in stealthy Toronto fashion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, snowstormcanuck said: Very cool. We've gone back up! Yeah, it could very well be 4 consecutive "good" winters in a row, done in stealthy Toronto fashion. It's kind of messy rn. I'm planning to clean it up over the next few days. I can definitely share it with you once I finish up. . Our February average has gone way up. Let's see if we continue that trend this year. Since 2011, we've averaged close to 37cm. Stealthy Toronto fashion. Has a nice ring to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Made an estimated snow map for our event page. LOT CWA posters...Is this reasonably accurate? I can tweak it if there's anything glaring. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, RCNYILWX said: Made an estimated snow map for our event page. LOT CWA posters...Is this reasonably accurate? Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Looks pretty spot on 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 5" here looks about right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 4 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Made an estimated snow map for our event page. LOT CWA posters...Is this reasonably accurate? I can tweak it if there's anything glaring. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Yep, 6.4” here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Yep, 6.4” hereWhat's your distance and direction from DKB? We could use your report as a LSR. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 17 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Made an estimated snow map for our event page. LOT CWA posters...Is this reasonably accurate? I can tweak it if there's anything glaring. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Just wanted to say that I have always appreciated (including when I lived in Western Michigan) your interaction with individuals on here. I think it's awesome you're willing to get input from others on here. Admirable. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Is the lake effect for tomorrow being discussed on here? Debating between an SPS and a WWA. In addition to the HRRR (which as we know is usually overdone with LES), the 00z HRWs smoke Cook County. Kind of concerning to just have a SPS but also these setups are always low confidence. Was leaning SPS but I'd be lying if I said I feel good about it either way lol. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 5 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Is the lake effect for tomorrow being discussed on here? Debating between an SPS and a WWA. In addition to the HRRR (which as we know is usually overdone with LES), the 00z HRWs smoke Cook County. Kind of concerning to just have a SPS but also these setups are always low confidence. Was leaning SPS but I'd be lying if I said I feel good about it either way lol. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk WWA is a more eye-catching disclaimer (both for online & local news media), but if low confidence & it doesn’t pan out, would that put low faith in future WWA postings from the public? If in your shoes, I would probably lean SPS with the option to upgrade to an advisory if LES is shown to materialize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 11 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Is the lake effect for tomorrow being discussed on here? Debating between an SPS and a WWA. In addition to the HRRR (which as we know is usually overdone with LES), the 00z HRWs smoke Cook County. Kind of concerning to just have a SPS but also these setups are always low confidence. Was leaning SPS but I'd be lying if I said I feel good about it either way lol. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk We've been posting about it here so might as well stay in this thread. And yeah, congrats South Chicago on those runs or in the case of the NSSL WRF, congrats downtown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Can see the implied covergence zone on this obs plot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 51 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: What's your distance and direction from DKB? We could use your report as a LSR. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 3.9 miles NE of KDKB in sycamore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cutlew Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 56 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Made an estimated snow map for our event page. LOT CWA posters...Is this reasonably accurate? I can tweak it if there's anything glaring. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Yeah, measured a bit shy of 4" in Bridgeport neighborhood today so spot on for here too. Don't post often but enjoy following all of the insights from you and others 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 27, 2021 Author Share Posted January 27, 2021 Finished with 4.0” here (Naperville), and 6.0” at ex-here (Streamwood).. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 RC's lake effect disco. Went with SPS for now. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 935 PM CST Tue Jan 26 2021 .UPDATE... 930 PM CST The main focus is on lake effect snow for parts of northeast Illinois and northwest Indiana on Wednesday. An SPS was just issued to alert of the potential for travel impacts due to rapid changes in conditions over short distances, including periods of poor visibility and snow and/or slush on some roads. Some of the 00z CAM guidance is rather concerning tomorrow morning, but given typically lower confidence in these scenarios on the west and far south side of the lake, opted for SPS issuance as opposed to Winter Weather Advisory. If it becomes apparent in analysis overnight that the lake effect snow will become single banded with moderate to heavy rates AND stall out for 2-3 hours+, then needing a WWA is a good bet. Just wasn`t confident enough to make that call this evening. A dual banded structure of light lake effect snw showers have drifted into Lake and eastern Porter Counties this evening. The appearance on radar is not too impressive and a look at soundings indicates that lift is on the weaker side, which should be the case through the night. This will change on Wednesday morning as a clipper-type mid-level short-wave will approach the region and induce some cold advection down the length of Lake Michigan, with 850 mb temps cooling down to -11 to -13C. given the unusually mild lake surface temps, this will bring 850 mb to lake delta Ts of up to 15C and lake induced CAPE of 100-150 j/kg. As a con to the setup that has been noted over the past few days, lake induced equilibrium levels (inversion heights) are not all that impressive, topping out at 5kft-6.5kft, depending on the model sounding you look at (which means DGZ will only be partially saturated). Also, while the delta Ts are more supportive than would typically be the case with that air mass over the lake in late January, still not extremely favorable. On the other hand, what we will likely have in place to possibly compensate for the somewhat negating factors of the setup is very good lake induced low level convergence and strong lower level omega (lift) due to the convective processes and large ascent from the short-wave trough. Have noted that in the past at times setups on the southwest to extreme southern tip of the lake can perform better than expected from more marginal ELs in the presence of very favorable convergence and low level lift. Adding to this concern from past events is the 00z CAM guidance, including the high-res WRFs (locally 6"+ on ARW!) and the HRRR (though HRRR has been mostly overdone with LES this season). All the above being said, the big question as always comes down to residence time of the band over given locations. Feel fairly confident that at least moderate to briefly heavy rates will accompany the activity, but lower confidence on the all importance residence time question. It appears the convergence will retrograde the activity from current location into portions of eastern Cook County and affecting downwind areas of eastern Will and possibly eastern DuPage and northeast Will as well. The lake effect band(s) would then eventually migrate back into Lake IN and then Porter later Wednesday PM. With the above concerns, hit the messaging harder in already issued SPS and plan to issue a graphic shortly highlighting these concerns. Will brief midnight shift on the potential and depending how trends emerge will dictate whether a WWA is needed in the early morning. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 This is just at totally qualitative and unscientific observation but for as many complaints about this winter as there have been, this is my fiance and I's second winter in this apartment and I don't recall as much snow piled up on our balcony at any point during '19-'20 as there is now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Bit of an uptick in the lake effect band. Also shifting back west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Abysmal winter continues. Never covered the grass blades. Scratched my way to a solid 1" And I mean we've yet to hide the grass here one time. Not a street plow to be seen. Is this SOH?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRegionRat Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Not much snow here for the event. Maybe three inches? Might be generous. It has become a veritable skating rink overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 finished with 5.5" 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 10 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said: What a dog's breakfast of a storm here. Even King Euro mishandled the placement of the defo band snows. Won't know for sure until the final number's out, but with today's coating YYZ up to around 30" on the season. 2020-21 could very well be like last year: end up with 55" but damned if you can remember how. Final number at YYZ: 3.6” (9.2 cm) Season to date: 30.6” (77.8 cm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 LES snow bands almost non existent at 13z and even the 12z HRRR has backed way off from what it was last evening 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 haven't been expecting more than DAB locally but you're just now seeing a response over the lake and returns will pick up over next few hours but not my event anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 22 minutes ago, Toronto4 said: Final number at YYZ: 3.6” (9.2 cm) Season to date: 30.6” (77.8 cm) Added a cm to my running total due to that missing data from early Dec. I emailed EC and apparently that data is not recoverable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 hour ago, snowstormcanuck said: Added a cm to my running total due to that missing data from early Dec. I emailed EC and apparently that data is not recoverable Apparently the Nov 30 and Dec 1 snowfall data was missing for a few days until it was recovered the following week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 weak plume trying to get going, loop should see some snow here shortly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 13 hours ago, Snowstorms said: Nah, I created a spreadsheet of every winter since records began at YYZ LOL. Re your last post. That November storm was pre sweet. Widespread 8-10". I'll be happy if we can have a 4th consecutive winter >100cm. That last time we had 4 consecutive 100cm winters was back in the 70s. you are my twin lol. only for Toronto instead of Detroit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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