Hoosier Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Can I politely request a lock in of the 18z HRRR? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Impossible to measure snow event. Between 0 and 26" on driveway. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Will be curious to see what LOT does coming up. Do they pull the trigger on an advisory for lake snow or punt for the evening shift to look at. It seems pretty clear the band will become semi-stationary or wobble around the same corridor of Lake county IN and parts of Cook county later on. Quite likely to see advisory criteria amounts imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 34 minutes ago, tuanis said: Visibility still reduced and still accumulating, albeit much more slowly. Have about an inch and a half of fresh on the driveway since I cleared it this morning. Imagine we've seen about 7"-7.5" so far, but hard to get an accurate measurement with the blowing and drifting. Rates picking up again as I type this. It's not really a packing snow. More dense and powdery. as mentioned by others above it looks like the LE is starting also light snow showers are now falling over SE Cook county per radar There is chance this area could see snow , at various intensities, the next 24 hours per Nam nest (until 21z weds) which is rather rare on the IL side of the lake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 SN 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 WSW that was to last 2 more hours has been cancelled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 not very bullish on LE 1-3 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL 300 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2021 SHORT TERM 259 PM CST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT... FORECAST CHALLENGES CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY. WHILE THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A FOCUS FOR THESE SHOWERS, THE EXPECTATION IS THAT WE WILL SEE THESE SNOW SHOWERS BECOME BETTER FOCUSED INTO PORTIONS OF COOK COUNTY AND LAKE COUNTY IN TONIGHT AS A LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE SETS UP OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE MAY KEEP THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THESE SNOW SHOWERS INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COOK COUNTY (AND ADJACENT AREAS OF LAKE IN) THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE THIS FOCUS GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO LAKE AND PORTER COUNTIES IN IN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET OVERLY IMPRESSIVE FROM A THERMODYAMICS PERSPECTIVE. IN FACT, A RECENT AMDAR SOUNDING OUT OF MDW SUGGESTS THAT LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ARE RIGHT AT THE -12C LEVEL, WHICH IS ONLY ABOUT 5-6,000 FEET AGL. IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT THIS WILL IMPROVE MUCH, IF AT ALL, OVERNIGHT. THIS DOES ADD SOME CONCERN TO THE QUALITY OF SNOW IN THESE LAKE EFFECT BANDS. HOWEVER, WITH A FAIRLY CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR A GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER FOCUS ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE, THIS MAY ACT TO COMPENSATE FOR THE MODEST THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS. FOR THIS REASON, WHILE THIS IS UNLIKELY TO TURN INTO A MAJOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT FOR COOK OR LAKE COUNTY IN, WE COULD SEE ENOUGH OF A FOCUS TO SUPPORT A BAND OF ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COOK/PARTS OF LAKE IN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. OUR CURRENT FORECAST MENTIONS ABOUT 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS NEAR THE LAKE IN SOUTHERN COOK AND FAR NORTHWESTERN IN. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, EXPECT THE FOCUS FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO EASTERN LAKE IN AND PORTER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE THESE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END ALTOGETHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Looks about done here. I better get outside to blow the driveway again and get a few more measurements before it gets dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 This is how to handle lake effect snow forecasting: INCLUDING THE CITIES OF CHICAGO, CICERO, OAK LAWN, OAK PARK, AND LA GRANGE 314 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2021 TONIGHT CLOUDY WITH NUMEROUS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. LOWS 17 TO 21 IN THE SUBURBS...BUT IN THE LOWER 20S DOWNTOWN. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. NEAR THE LAKE, GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH IN THE EVENING. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT. WEDNESDAY MOSTLY CLOUDY. NUMEROUS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING, THEN SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 4 INCHES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT. Brilliant. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Officially came in at 5" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Man Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Getting smoked downtown. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 36 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: not very bullish on LE 1-3 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL 300 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2021 SHORT TERM 259 PM CST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT... FORECAST CHALLENGES CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY. WHILE THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A FOCUS FOR THESE SHOWERS, THE EXPECTATION IS THAT WE WILL SEE THESE SNOW SHOWERS BECOME BETTER FOCUSED INTO PORTIONS OF COOK COUNTY AND LAKE COUNTY IN TONIGHT AS A LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE SETS UP OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE MAY KEEP THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THESE SNOW SHOWERS INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COOK COUNTY (AND ADJACENT AREAS OF LAKE IN) THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE THIS FOCUS GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO LAKE AND PORTER COUNTIES IN IN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET OVERLY IMPRESSIVE FROM A THERMODYAMICS PERSPECTIVE. IN FACT, A RECENT AMDAR SOUNDING OUT OF MDW SUGGESTS THAT LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ARE RIGHT AT THE -12C LEVEL, WHICH IS ONLY ABOUT 5-6,000 FEET AGL. IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT THIS WILL IMPROVE MUCH, IF AT ALL, OVERNIGHT. THIS DOES ADD SOME CONCERN TO THE QUALITY OF SNOW IN THESE LAKE EFFECT BANDS. HOWEVER, WITH A FAIRLY CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR A GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER FOCUS ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE, THIS MAY ACT TO COMPENSATE FOR THE MODEST THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS. FOR THIS REASON, WHILE THIS IS UNLIKELY TO TURN INTO A MAJOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT FOR COOK OR LAKE COUNTY IN, WE COULD SEE ENOUGH OF A FOCUS TO SUPPORT A BAND OF ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COOK/PARTS OF LAKE IN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. OUR CURRENT FORECAST MENTIONS ABOUT 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS NEAR THE LAKE IN SOUTHERN COOK AND FAR NORTHWESTERN IN. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, EXPECT THE FOCUS FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO EASTERN LAKE IN AND PORTER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE THESE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END ALTOGETHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 1-3 is safe bet/low end. I wish we had delta T closer to 20C for this... there would be major dumpage somewhere in Lake IN and perhaps Cook given the likely wobbly/slow moving nature in that corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIstorm97 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 hour ago, MIstorm97 said: Finally snowing again. Hoping to get to 3” total at this point. Nope. Defo zone really hit the bed and managed just half an inch. Likely done with snow. Total looks to be 2.3”, so we did get more on Sunday with that little wave than the main “storm” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 minute ago, ChiTownStorm11 said: Getting smoked downtown. You can see better consolidation into a banded feature on the recent scans vs the more disorganized/showery appearance earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Imagine we'll sit around 4" after this last burst. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 a couple of yellow pixels (32 dBZ) now within that band and showing up in COD nexlab radar at times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Getting some aircraft effect snow in the western burbs now....they're fast-moving given the 25-30KT northerly steering flow. It'll be interesting to see if the Gary industrial complex plays a part in locally higher snowfall south of there overnight since the two usually occur under similar conditions. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
featherwx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 It was absolutely ripping as it passed over me in the UIC area about an hour ago, with well-treated main streets getting covered almost instantly. I just got home (about 5 miles NW of the Loop) and it looks like we’ve picked up almost 6” so far—definitely frustrating to have the heavier synoptic stuff stay just north earlier and now the lake effect go just south, but it is what it is! 54 minutes ago, Hoosier said: You can see better consolidation into a banded feature on the recent scans vs the more disorganized/showery appearance earlier. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 the lake band looked decent for a bit but now has weakened and is moving to the IIL/IN border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 hour ago, MIstorm97 said: Nope. Defo zone really hit the bed and managed just half an inch. Likely done with snow. Total looks to be 2.3”, so we did get more on Sunday with that little wave than the main “storm” Hopefully we get our mojo back in February lol. Finished with 1.3" of snow here with 0.16" liquid. Season to date 18.5" but just 4.7" in January. The mix of freezing rain & snow made it a popsicle/slurpee kind of day. The snow piles will be frozen glaciers by morning. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Don't do this to me HRRR... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just mood flakes off and on all day with no additional accum, so 6.3" is the final total. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Well this storm overperformed here. I was originally forecasted to have 2-4" but I ended up with about 7" with quite a bit of drifting and blowing. A fluffier snow too which was nice fo shoveling. This 7" means that our snowmobile trails will be able to open which will be nice. I say I probably have 9-10" OTG now. This pack should last at least to the end of the week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 ORD up to 6" storm total 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 19 minutes ago, madwx said: ORD up to 6" storm total LOT really nailed this one to be honest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 36 minutes ago, madwx said: ORD up to 6" storm total I heard somewhere that the ORD official measurement was in good hands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 15 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said: LOT really nailed this one to be honest. Forecast verified north but did not south and west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 15 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said: I heard somewhere that ORD official measurement was in good hands 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Final total of ~3.0" at YYZ. That should bump YYZ up to 30" for the season and only 14.5" from our new (1991-2020) seasonal average. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 What a dog's breakfast of a storm here. Even King Euro mishandled the placement of the defo band snows. Won't know for sure until the final number's out, but with today's coating YYZ up to around 30" on the season. 2020-21 could very well be like last year: end up with 55" but damned if you can remember how. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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