Major Nor'easter near blizzard (6"+ most of our area-best chance 20-30" north of I78 in ne PA, nw NJ, se NYS)-ice-rain-power outage NYC subforum late Sunday Jan 31-early Tue Feb 2.

[wdrag]

637AM Sunday:  : headline updated to Major near blizzard and added power outages. 

Major near blizzard Nor'easter coming. I would not plan on driving anywhere on Monday in northern NJ, ne PA, se NYS and ditto CT Monday afternoon-night, MA Monday night. 

 

 

NYC my guess is a foot, possibly more before mixed Monday night.

 

Otherwise,  amounts between 1-2 feet from I78 northward with lesser 8-18 inches CT and MA where rain/sleet invades later Monday night. 

 

Isolated 30" possible nw NJ, or ne PA into the Catskills by the time this storm ends early Wednesday.. Drifts 3-4 feet. Power outages possible Monday afternoon and night from northern NJ northeastward to CT and Boston from a combination of heavy wetter (heart attack for the hear tcondition vulnerable) snow and northeast wind gusts of 40-55 MPH. 

 

Snow starts central NJ around 3 PM, northern NJ-ne PA 6-10P, CT around dawn Monday. Worst of the storm NJ/PA sunrise Monday-midnight Monday night, CT Monday afternoon-night. 

 

Coastal flooding may be major near the midnight Monday high tide cycle? Follow NWS.

----

 

615AM Saturday: Imperfect probably messy big snowstorm is coming, imperfect in that modeling the past 24 hours is drifting north and suggesting a dry slot late Monday will allow enough warming for sleet (rain LI) to I80 including all of I95 Monday night so that the stratiform burst of 1-2"/hr Heavy snow during Monday, especially afternoon, becomes bands of snow in the interior late Monday night-Tuesday, some areas probably recovering Tuesday with several hours of no precip.  So, my own single forecaster point of failure but use of ensembles could be too pessimistic about the sleet/rain intrusion. For NYC... I'll start with 6"  with possibly as much 1/2" late 31. Hope that its mostly snow after 00z/2 but even if, snow ratios may be down to 7 or 8 to 1?? I dont' want to cap NYC since am uncertain about dry slot. 

Sleet/rain/freezing rain may be getting involved Philly to Toms River during Monday morning. 

There may be a period of near blizzard conditions on LI centered Monday afternoon? BUT, I don't want to call it a blizzard for fear of easily missing criteria. The point of this paragraph, is that I think Monday, especially afternoon should be the worst period of travel and if models continue this, in future cycles through Sunday morning, then I think it would be a recommended no travel for that 6-12 hour period to limit accidents and allow plows to maintain passable-less slippery conditions for first responders. 

Snow may be wet on LI/Monmouth-northern Ocean Counties in NJ if 6" at 32-33F, we would have power outages... still too early to be sure. 

CT I84... continue to notice some multimodeled lesser snowfall there, so while I think a big snow there, cautioning myself. 

Coastal flooding: see NWS statements/flood watches already posted and no change from yesterday with the late Monday evening high tide cycle most favored for flooding (within 2 hours either side of the time of high tide)

Graphics are the 00z/30 EPS as a base amount, the 00z/30 EC IR prediction for 06z/Tue showing the dry slot penetration, and the NWS 09z/30 prob for 6" or more of snow by 12z Tues.  That's the reasoning basis for this update. 

 

 

[wdrag]

WPC Dayshift outlook for Feb 1: Let's stay w general ensembles and hope for the best. 

[forkyfork]

we need to wait for the models to resolve the details of the blocking pattern. they missed the lower heights in se canada with the 1/28 storm. even the euro/eps weren't aggressive enough

 

[MJO812]

Para gfs

[NEG NAO]

11 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Para gfs

this will change many times during the upcoming week IMO - that run of the GFSv16 has the LP retrograding south down the coast from here - very unusual to say the least....

[NEG NAO]

0Z GFS

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

0Z GFS

Very long duration storm 

Very nice evolution

[NEG NAO]

12Z GFS Continued

[NEG NAO]

0Z Canadian

[NEG NAO]

0Z Canadian Continued

[MJO812]

Very long duration on the cmc

[NEG NAO]

(25 Jan 2021) GFSv16 and HRW FV3 data are temporarily unavailable again due to continued NCEP data flow problems

[MJO812]

Total on cmc

[HeadInTheClouds]

This threat is legit. Every global has a long duration event. 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

I don't like being in the bullseye 6 -7 days out

We aren't in the bullseye

[HeadInTheClouds]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

We aren't in the bullseye

HV certainly is. 

[MJO812]

Ukie

[MJO812]

I like the fact that the block is weakening during this time frame. Models are also popping a ridge. 

[SnoSki14]

Legit or another tease?

Odds are better than recent storms.

[RU848789]

Well, somebody had to do it.  Nice eye candy 6-8 days out (although this includes what falls tomorrow, so there's not actually that much N of 84 for this; it's also a 36+ hr event as per the model, which sounds fishy).  We can dream though.  Nice to also see the GFS/CMC with significant storms, even if the evolution/placement of precip is different.  And the UK is showing the start of the storm, too at 144.  I sense a lack of sleep coming soon.  

 

[wdrag]

No additional confidently stated info for this potential, except the 00z/25 EFS and EPS are almost identical evolving the 500MB LOW into New England.  Still could see a southward displacement?  WPC overnight D6-7 continues >30% risk of 3+" both dates for our forum;  just N and W of NYC. 

 

I could easily get into their dailies to to focus, so I've an unfocused D4-7 posted here. Check the bottom two (D6-7) if interested.

[Heisy]

37 minutes ago, wdrag said:

No additional confidently stated info for this potential, except the 00z/25 EFS and EPS are almost identical evolving the 500MB LOW into New England.  Still could see a southward displacement?  WPC overnight D6-7 continues >30% risk of 3+" both dates for our forum;  just N and W of NYC. 

 

I could easily get into their dailies to to focus, so I've an unfocused D4-7 posted here. Check the bottom two (D6-7) if interested.

Like forky stated earlier in this thread models continue to underestimate the blocks effects. Seems confluence is getting stronger each run. There’s even a New England streamer wave showing up On guidance (Ukie especially) Hopefully we get the right balance this time around. I’m more concerned atm for a messy evolution/south event than I am of inland. 

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

No additional confidently stated info for this potential, except the 00z/25 EFS and EPS are almost identical evolving the 500MB LOW into New England.  Still could see a southward displacement?  WPC overnight D6-7 continues >30% risk of 3+" both dates for our forum;  just N and W of NYC. 

 

I could easily get into their dailies to to focus, so I've an unfocused D4-7 posted here. Check the bottom two (D6-7) if interested.

Thanks. Big spread on the op models with GFS 16 a miss to the south and GFS furthest north.

CMC biggest hit for all areas EURO big hit except for northern areas.

My biggest concern is still suppression. If we change to rain due to a further north track at least we get some front end snows.

[NEG NAO]

8 hours ago, MJO812 said:

I like the fact that the block is weakening during this time frame. Models are also popping a ridge. 

Suppression is definitely on the table for the next weeks event

[HeadInTheClouds]

1 hour ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Like forky stated earlier in this thread models continue to underestimate the blocks effects. Seems confluence is getting stronger each run. There’s even a New England streamer wave showing up On guidance (Ukie especially) Hopefully we get the right balance this time around. I’m more concerned atm for a messy evolution/south event than I am of inland. 

Actually the trends this year have been for the lows to track further north in time. It happened in Dec 16-17th storm and with the minor event today. 

[eduggs]

3 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Actually the trends this year have been for the lows to track further north in time. It happened in Dec 16-17th storm and with the minor event today. 

Yes, but they've mostly been weak primary lows trending north, typically with dampening upper levels. Not so much strengthening coastal lows or 2ndary lows hugging the coast.  Take today - primary low into Lake Ontario with a weak 2ndary 100s of miles offshore. Something very similar could play out with the next threat.

[MJO812]

19 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Suppression is definitely on the table for the next weeks event

Possible but go with the ensembles this far out. Op runs will keep changing. 

[SnoSki14]

Probably our last chance at anything. Pattern turns hostile after this. 

Oh well at least we had 1 storm this season, better than nothing.

[NEG NAO]

14 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Possible but go with the ensembles this far out. Op runs will keep changing. 

that reply doesn't tell us what the various  ensembles show...........

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

Probably our last chance at anything. Pattern turns hostile after this. 

Oh well at least we had 1 storm this season, better than nothing.

is this February 26th or better yet March ?