tamarack Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 GFS shows advisory snows here (36 hr of S-) after having flurry-runs for seemingly forever. Nice D-9 storm too - wonder if it all disappears at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 regardless of any NORLUN proper realization later in the week beyond this nearer term .. that's interesting Meteorologically. Depending on the guidance in use, the GGEM is smearing that SPV fragment - but I am willing to side with the concerted Euro/GFS/ICON runs, which have strong consensus on that feature staying in tact as it trundles and carves SSE out of eastern Ontario. That's gonna pass an interval of impressive instability overhead. 500 mb temperatures probably bottoming out, and the heights being so low...the 500 mb level is not exceedingly high in the atmosphere. Bands of squalls inside of virga sky seems an easy instability realization ...whether or not that organizes around a llv trough reflection ...it could, if the motion of that SPV feature is slow enough than the convergence will tend to organize an axis and there's your NOR ' ... but either way, that's pretty damn interesting seeing that thing on the Euro and GFS like that - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 NAM bumped a little in western areas so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 That northern stripe makes sense as that's where the upper levels and best forcing are tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 55 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: This has a decent upside for surprises Glad you’re back from the dark side. I like you area for the ‘surprise’. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: That northern stripe makes sense as that's where the upper levels and best forcing are tracking. I think the only difference for south of 84 to the coast between the NAM and the EURO are the temps, correct? The EURO gets 4 down to the coast while NAM is 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Glad you’re back from the dark side. I like you area for the ‘surprise’. I like norluns. They always surprise pleasantly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, EastonSN+ said: I think the only difference for south of 84 to the coast between the NAM and the EURO are the temps, correct? The EURO gets 4 down to the coast while NAM is 1. Surface temps don't look to be the issue. It's how congealed the system is or is not. Light rates over 24hrs won't accumulate much imo. You'll want to be under heavier bands to see anything appreciable out of this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I like norluns. They always surprise pleasantly I’m in for the mood changing setting. Get me shoveling or sweeping then make it many hours of off and on again light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 11 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: That northern stripe makes sense as that's where the upper levels and best forcing are tracking. Looks like mainly a Tues night through Wed night deal now...timing has pushed back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2021 Author Share Posted January 25, 2021 NAM snows for like 40 hours....lol. I'd take it at this point even if it takes 40 hours to get 3 or 4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I’m in for the mood changing setting. Get me shoveling or sweeping then make it many hours of off and on again light snow. A nice 48 hour event. 3-6” or thereabouts for most. We need it 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 NAM illustrates how eastern Ma could get screwed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Congrats Will on the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: NAM illustrates how eastern Ma could get screwed 3" here over 24 hours...Steve is right, I should have stayed up all night feverishly updating the blog. All kidding aside, I would take 3" of snow from this and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Nice! Bone dry on NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 NAM is outside of it's primary range to be taken literally. I'm sticking with the medium models since that's what their built for at this stage not the regionals. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 1 minute ago, Greg said: NAM is outside of it's primary range to be taken literally. I'm sticking with the medium range models since that's what their built for at this stage. No, its not. Maybe its wrong, but 36 hrd lead time is not at all near the outer bounds of its range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: No, its not. Sorry, don't trust any thing outside of 48 hours on totals. That means the NAM also. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Models are all pretty damn close at this point. We are talking about a 20-30mi difference where best banding sets up at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Days and days of currier and ives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 1 minute ago, Greg said: Sorry, don't trust any thing outside of 48 hours on totals. That means thae NAM also. Okay, then say that...but the NAM isn't "out of its range"- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Models are all pretty damn close at this point. We are talking about a 20-30mi difference where best banding sets up at this point. Yea, I think we have a pretty good idea, but to each their own....perhaps we will have a better consensus at 3 hours lead time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, I think we have a pretty good idea, but to each their own....perhaps we will have a better consensus at 3 hours lead time. Some can’t come to a consesus until after the snow departs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 I still have caution flags flying in my head over widespread snows. I still feel that western areas will do better due to the initial forcing being better out there. It's getting shredded as it pushes east but we could be saved if we can back the flow some due to a little redevelopment S of us for eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 12K NAM is all blotchy and weird. 3K is a lot smoother looking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: I still have caution flags flying in my head over widespread snows. I still feel that western areas will do better due to the initial forcing being better out there. It's getting shredded as it pushes east but we could be saved if we can back the flow some due to a little redevelopment S of us for eastern areas. I hate these low stakes forecasts that are still a PIA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Rgem is really good...looks better for my CT coastal peeps too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 12z RGEM has a nice band set up from the parent low down to the south coast. Again right along the line of best forcing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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