ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2021 Author Share Posted January 25, 2021 06z euro juiced it up a little from 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Should be a nice wintry appeal period for 24+ hours for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 6 z Euro to 54 hrs RGEM has been lead dog on this, do we believe it? 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Yeah RGEM is pretty zonked Pike south. Amounts would argue low end warning there, but given the duration; I’m sure it doesn’t meet the time criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Should be a nice wintry appeal period for 24+ hours for most. Glad you shook off the debbie in you this morning to see this for what it is. A nice winter vibe again regardless of amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 RGEM looks just a wee bit too high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: RGEM looks just a wee bit too high. Outlier but we are only talking a couple tenths. Interesting how your streak decided to pull out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 On 1/20/2021 at 1:53 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: This could become more consolidated as we get closer. You get a back pat. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Outlier but we are only talking a couple tenths. Interesting how your streak decided to pull out Ah man, this is layup on play with words but I’ll keep it professional instead. 2-5” for sne seems like a good range to go with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 21 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Should be a nice wintry appeal period for 24+ hours for most. Only on the mulch though....lol. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 2-5" is just what the doctor ordered for this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 We'll have to see how these s/w's interact in the later period like the NAM shows. Almost tries to get a broad area of lift going and a semblance of a weak CCB. If that ULL can dive more to the south and establish some mid level erly flow, that's when you could have surprises. Otherwise it's a 1-3 or 2-4" deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 13 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: 2-5" is just what the doctor ordered for this region. My doctor ordered 8-12” but they don’t hand those scrips out like they used to. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Snows from tomorrow afternoon into Thursday afternoon. Couple of days and days 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 25 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Only on the mulch though....lol. It still probably will mostly be that way, at least here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 2 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said: 6Z RGEM and NAM were an improvement for most in SNE. Except to here is SW CT. Rats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Gonna make a Tippy psychoanalysis post. Interesting the dynamic in here. It doesn't snow and there are 100s of whining posts, here we are on the cusp of a general 3 to 6 and its very quiet in here. Just a funny observation, you know who you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Gonna make a Tippy psychoanalysis post. Interesting the dynamic in here. It doesn't snow and there are 100s of whining posts, here we are on the cusp of a general 3 to 6 and its very quiet in here. Just a funny observation, you know who you are. It's quiet? How much more can we talk about a 2-4" deal? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 42 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Only on the mulch though....lol. Thank god we don't live there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Gonna make a Tippy psychoanalysis post. Interesting the dynamic in here. It doesn't snow and there are 100s of whining posts, here we are on the cusp of a general 3 to 6 and its very quiet in here. Just a funny observation, you know who you are. I’m stoked on it, just slightly guarded with the north trends... But hey, it’s gladly welcomed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's quiet? How much more can we talk about a 2-4" deal? Yea, I'm not that excited about it. Next week, sure.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's quiet? How much more can we talk about a 2-4" deal? This is how I envision Ginx every time there is a snow fall. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Gonna make a Tippy psychoanalysis post. Interesting the dynamic in here. It doesn't snow and there are 100s of whining posts, here we are on the cusp of a general 3 to 6 and its very quiet in here. Just a funny observation, you know who you are. It’s a Monday morning... I bet they’ll be more activity at lunch and this evening. And I think 3-6 is a stretch unless you are taking the RGEM at face value. I think it’s more of a 1-3” isolated 4 deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 while I will be happy with my 2-4" the system itself is kind of boring, just waiting it to get here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: This is how I envision Ginx every time there is a snow fall. I picture flips in the doggy doo. 1 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: It’s a Monday morning... I bet they’ll be more activity at lunch and this evening. And I think 3-6 is a stretch unless you are taking the RGEM at face value. I think it’s more of a 1-3” isolated 4 deal Yea, I don't post as much during the wknd, anyway...unless something big is imminent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 1 minute ago, dendrite said: I picture flips in the doggy doo. Hopefully he's got a sharp metal blade to scrape off the frozen poo ooze on his driveway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 This has a decent upside for surprises Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Nice to have something to track . Now can’t expose my snow weenie too far as models could pull back and hurt me . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 I started noticing this about 30 hours or 5 or so cycles ago .. but opted to hold back pending some trend emerging - It's clear, now, that the later series runs have trended toward less power in the wave space associated with the 28th ... We don't have a thread for that specific date/system, but its indirect influence on the our region is melded into the nearer term stuff - it's all the same bag for the week. Anyway, it becoming increasingly clear that the prior GFS operational runs when this was mid range proper were likely 'over-assessing' that wave mechanics. That wave space in the flow begins to relay into the denser/more physical sounding grid during the day today's runs and tonight especially. Currently there is a strong NNW- SSE diving jet max still west of the NW/Cali coast over the water ( outside slider they call these...); it appears to me that these mechanics were being over emphasized by those prior runs that had a juggernaut ... downstream west Atlantic 'PD1' type system. In fact, every run since 2.5 days ago has inched off the throttle on all that...and as of the 06z run, the wave doesn't even close off really - it's more of a flat, .. open wave event that not only is weaker, but I suspect by virtue of that weaker integration, it is taking a slightly northerly route. That's an interesting correction - swapping some intensity and slowness, for a northerly kite ride over the vestigial southern height wall. We've seen over-assessing several times this winter. It almost smacks as thought the 'under' assessment that used to get forecasters into trouble ( 'boxing day ) ...was fixed, .. perhaps deliberately the other way. Figuring it's less risk to civility to back off, then it is to have to lean into a complacent mass of people that needs three weeks and life to motivate over warnings ( sorry..I have to get at least one misanthropic back-hand in per day..) .. Anyway, not that anyone 'needed' this perspective op-ed, but the 28th-29th is officially dead to me when connecting the dots on that tendency for over assessing, meets with recent/later depictions indeed showing a reality less impressive, flatter... faster... Makes me wonder if this should be a like an automatic 20% kinematic reduction/assumption by all later mid range and extended ...geez Here's a wild notion tho ... if that relay off the Pac over southern Cal ends up even weaker ...that wave space flattens even more, and ends up riding off the NJ coast instead of carving into the heights and diving SE as much... It's already backing off doing that SE deep layer motion ...probably owing to skipping off the pond as opposed to torpedoing the water - so to speak. If it does so more, than we may end up with that melding into the protracted character of the on-going light snow. In other words, this could be heading toward less all around.. but less means that the southern heights keep it all floating N of previous - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now