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Jan 26-27 light snows


ORH_wxman
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We'll have to see how these s/w's interact in the later period like the NAM shows. Almost tries to get a broad area of lift going and a semblance of a weak CCB. If that ULL can dive more to the south and establish some mid level erly flow, that's when you could have surprises. Otherwise it's a 1-3 or 2-4" deal.

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Gonna make a Tippy psychoanalysis post. Interesting the dynamic in here. It doesn't snow and there are 100s of whining posts, here we are on the cusp of a general 3 to 6 and its very quiet in here. Just a funny observation, you know who you are.

 

  

It's quiet? How much more can we talk about a 2-4" deal?

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6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Gonna make a Tippy psychoanalysis post. Interesting the dynamic in here. It doesn't snow and there are 100s of whining posts, here we are on the cusp of a general 3 to 6 and its very quiet in here. Just a funny observation, you know who you are.

 

  

I’m stoked on it, just slightly guarded with the north trends... But hey, it’s gladly welcomed 

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11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Gonna make a Tippy psychoanalysis post. Interesting the dynamic in here. It doesn't snow and there are 100s of whining posts, here we are on the cusp of a general 3 to 6 and its very quiet in here. Just a funny observation, you know who you are.

 

  

It’s a Monday morning... I bet they’ll be more activity at lunch and this evening. And I think 3-6 is a stretch unless you are taking the RGEM at face value. 

I think it’s more of a 1-3” isolated 4 deal 

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3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

It’s a Monday morning... I bet they’ll be more activity at lunch and this evening. And I think 3-6 is a stretch unless you are taking the RGEM at face value. 

I think it’s more of a 1-3” isolated 4 deal 

Yea, I don't post as much during the wknd, anyway...unless something big is imminent.

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I started noticing this about 30 hours or 5 or so cycles ago .. but opted to hold back pending some trend emerging -

It's clear, now, that the later series runs have trended toward less power in the wave space associated with the 28th ... We don't have a thread for that specific date/system, but its indirect influence on the our region is melded into the nearer term stuff - it's all the same bag for the week. 

Anyway, it becoming increasingly clear that the prior GFS operational runs when this was mid range proper were likely 'over-assessing' that wave mechanics. That wave space in the flow begins to relay into the denser/more physical sounding grid during the day today's runs and tonight especially. Currently there is a strong NNW- SSE diving jet max still west of the NW/Cali coast over the water ( outside slider they call these...); it appears to me that these mechanics were being over emphasized by those prior runs that had a juggernaut ... downstream west Atlantic 'PD1' type system.   

In fact, every run since 2.5 days ago has inched off the throttle on all that...and as of the 06z run, the wave doesn't even close off really - it's more of a flat, .. open wave event that not only is weaker, but I suspect by virtue of that weaker integration, it is taking a slightly northerly route.   That's an interesting correction - swapping some intensity and slowness, for a northerly kite ride over the vestigial southern height wall.   

We've seen over-assessing several times this winter.  It almost smacks as thought the 'under' assessment that used to get forecasters into trouble ( 'boxing day ;)  ) ...was fixed, .. perhaps deliberately the other way.  Figuring it's less risk to civility to back off, then it is to have to lean into a complacent mass of people that needs three weeks and life to motivate over warnings ( sorry..I have to get at least one misanthropic back-hand in per day..) ..  Anyway, not that anyone 'needed' this perspective op-ed, but the 28th-29th is officially dead to me when connecting the dots on that tendency for over assessing, meets with recent/later depictions indeed showing a reality less impressive, flatter... faster...  

Makes me wonder if this should be a like an automatic 20% kinematic reduction/assumption by all later mid range and extended ...geez 

Here's a wild notion tho ... if that relay off the Pac over southern Cal ends up even weaker ...that wave space flattens even more, and ends up riding off the NJ coast instead of carving into the heights and diving SE as much... It's already backing off doing that SE deep layer motion ...probably owing to skipping off the pond as opposed to torpedoing the water - so to speak. If it does so more, than we may end up with that melding into the protracted character of the on-going light snow.   In other words, this could be heading toward less all around.. but less means that the southern heights keep it all floating N of previous -   

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