40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said: ORH is quite the weenie location... lol Look back through history....always just far enough in one direction....very seldom do they miss out on the lion's share of snowfall. I honestly take that into consideration when making snowfall maps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2021 Author Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Do you think I am to far southwest for anything meaningful snow wise Thursday night/Friday? 12z NAM went bonkers with QPF over the area. I'd watch it there too...you might be too far southwest, but it's close on some models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yeah it's like the lowest 2-3k feet of the atmosphere it's struggling with. But that can often be overplayed....esp near the coast. If the lowest levels are more like N aroudn Cape Ann, then that's where something could go nuts. Obviously digging that ULL further southwest will help the tug the sfc IVT further west too....so they are all connected. Yeah something to watch to see what the globals do. It's real close, but I do like seeing the NE flow from 850-700 for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2021 Author Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Look back through history....always just far enough in one direction....very seldom do they miss out on the lion's share of snowfall. I honestly take that into consideration when making snowfall maps. We need to make a Tshirt for you now that you have been at this for 25 years. We'll call it a 25th anniversary gift. "Ray's Kryptonite: Harping on ORH always being far enough in one direction since December 1996" 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 If we go nuts at any point, I’ll be sure to capture some pics for evidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2021 Author Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, NorEastermass128 said: If we go nuts at any point, I’ll be sure to capture some pics for evidence. At least you are in the best possible spot save downeast ME if anything happens Thursday night....can't get much further east than Rockport. edit: Actually reminds me of an event in the mid/late 1990s...I can't remember if it was 1996 or 1997 since I didn't experience the event. But Rockport/Gloucester got clipped with an IVT/OES piece and got like 6-7" while 10 miles west had nada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: We need to make a Tshirt for you now that you have been at this for 25 years. We'll call it a 25th anniversary gift. "Ray's Kryptonite: Harping on ORH always being far enough in one direction since December 1996" Honestly, Dec 1992 is when I really noticed it....I remember thinking, "wow, if ORH already has 12", then Springfield must have like 20"!.....further NW is always more snow. But that storm is when I started to understand the topographical nuances and just how magical that spot is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 21 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said: Trend is not your friend in CT... It doesn’t stop snowing until Thursday morning. In CT under the norlun. I like that trend 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2021 Author Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: It doesn’t stop snowing until Thursday morning. In CT under the norlun. I like that trend I think much of SNE will have a break tomorrow during the day...there may be some periodic flurries or spits of snow/snizzle, but we may have a 12-18 hour gap of very little before it tries to blossom again tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 12z going out 60 hrs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Models spitting out 1/2"+ QPF in E MA now. Surprise event when BOX was saying less then an 1" yesterday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Given recent trends, 2-4 might be a more appropriate call here as opposed to 1-3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It doesn’t stop snowing until Thursday morning. In CT under the norlun. I like that trend OT but I like following your station when I check in on mine. You do run relatively cool up there. That benefits you in winter, but not during warm season. You’ll probably be 85 when BDL is 90. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, dendrite said: OT but I like following your station when I check in on mine. You do run relatively cool up there. That benefits you in winter, but not during warm season. You’ll probably be 85 when BDL is 90. He is a bit like ORH but a little south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 37 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Shades of 2010 lol I remember you getting a foot one night from a WAA Maine event. You were in weenie denial right up until go time. We walked you off the ledge multiple times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I think much of SNE will have a break tomorrow during the day...there may be some periodic flurries or spits of snow/snizzle, but we may have a 12-18 hour gap of very little before it tries to blossom again tomorrow night. I just mean that under the radar , tiny flake stuff where you look outside and it’s just constantly snowing lightly . If it’s near 32, it probably isn’t sticking to roads until tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: He is a bit like ORH but a little south Doesn't have that "always in the right spot" ambiance, either...great spot, but ORH does better in upslope bc its a chain of hills. Much better SWFE climo, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, Ginx snewx said: I remember you getting a foot one night from a WAA Maine event. You were in weenie denial right up until go time. We walked you off the ledge multiple times. That was also back in my WOTY days lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Doesn't have that "always in the right spot" ambiance, either...great spot, but ORH does better in upslope bc its a chain of hills. Much better SWFE climo, too. Yeah... that is true. I was thinking more of temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Honestly, Dec 1992 is when I really noticed it....I remember thinking, "wow, if ORH already has 12", then Springfield must have like 20"!.....further NW is always more snow. But that storm is when I started to understand the topographical nuances and just how magical that spot is. I worked in Springfield back then and there was nothing at 4pm, drove home and ran into heavy snow in Brimfield them lightened up at my place, took a drive to Worcester and it was unbelievable the difference, Charlton does well too in the higher locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 7 minutes ago, dendrite said: OT but I like following your station when I check in on mine. You do run relatively cool up there. That benefits you in winter, but not during warm season. You’ll probably be 85 when BDL is 90. Yeah it’s just a localized hilltop , heavily wooded microclimate. I mean I like it online now so folks can see it and not accuse me of making up my temps, dews etc. If you compare my highs and lows with ORH.. in most cases the numbers are almost always dead nuts on or 1-2 degrees apart. Obviously in CAD or other nuance situations that doesn’t hold true, but generally it does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Random observation looking back on previous Norluns in Maine and NJ, Reggie has done quite well with them 12-18 hours out. Beautiful one Fri-Sat for downeast Maine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yeah it’s just a localized hilltop , heavily wooded microclimate. I mean I like it online now so folks can see it and not accuse me of making up my temps, dews etc. If you compare my highs and lows with ORH.. in most cases the numbers are almost always 1-2 degrees apart. Obviously in CAD or other nuance situations that doesn’t hold true, but generally it does Ball busting aside, I have always valued your OBS as much as anyone....top tier. I think you're pretty meticulous and objective, but I can see why those you haven't been around as long would suspect otherwise lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 28 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It doesn’t stop snowing until Thursday morning. In CT under the norlun. I like that trend I like your location better than mine for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Ball busting aside, I have always valued your OBS as much as anyone....top tier. I think you're pretty meticulous and objective, but I can see why those you haven't been around as long would suspect otherwise lol . I love the ball busting. I mean I live for it. It’s what I do best .. pushing buttons is my favorite thing . But I just never understood why Scooter or others would accuse me of lying. I mean what benefit do I get of saying my dew is 77 when it’s really 75? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yeah it’s just a localized hilltop , heavily wooded microclimate. I mean I like it online now so folks can see it and not accuse me of making up my temps, dews etc. If you compare my highs and lows with ORH.. in most cases the numbers are almost always 1-2 degrees apart. Obviously in CAD or other nuance situations that doesn’t hold true, but generally it does You're in a great spot, when you were house hunting were you looking for a weenie spot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 GFS still stubbornly the northern outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: You're in a great spot, when you were house hunting were you looking for a weenie spot? I like this area for a few reasons . It’s far enough NE where we don’t usually miss on Miller b’s like WCT can . The elevation helps in marginal events and on easterly inflow events we tend to do well. The thing i don’t like is there’s nothing to CAD in cold , so when that SE wind comes calling.. it just furnaces. It’s too close to the ocean sometimes with nothing but lowlands to the SSE. To me , ORH hills are best spot in SNE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 GSFv16 more in line with the rest of the 12z suite that's rolled out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 I would take the GFS lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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