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Jan 26-27 light snows


ORH_wxman
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Hrrr is really aggressive with the changeover to sleet and freezing rain heading northeast rather quickly...wonder if this turns into an hour or 2 burst of snow that changes over and we end up with more of a coating to and inch with sleet and freezing rain. Especially for us here in CT...

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  On 1/26/2021 at 1:12 PM, Spanks45 said:

Hrrr is really aggressive with the changeover to sleet and freezing rain heading northeast rather quickly...wonder if this turns into an hour or 2 burst of snow that changes over and we end up with more of a coating to and inch with sleet and freezing rain. Especially for us here in CT...

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What?

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  On 1/26/2021 at 1:12 PM, Spanks45 said:

Hrrr is really aggressive with the changeover to sleet and freezing rain heading northeast rather quickly...wonder if this turns into an hour or 2 burst of snow that changes over and we end up with more of a coating to and inch with sleet and freezing rain. Especially for us here in CT...

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It seems a little aggressive with sleet since I don't see anything in the column above 32 on the soundings. It's done that before. Maybe right near the coast closer to the warm tongue, but too aggressive IMO.

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  On 1/26/2021 at 1:12 PM, Spanks45 said:

Hrrr is really aggressive with the changeover to sleet and freezing rain heading northeast rather quickly...wonder if this turns into an hour or 2 burst of snow that changes over and we end up with more of a coating to and inch with sleet and freezing rain. Especially for us here in CT...

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Sell.

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  On 1/26/2021 at 1:11 PM, dendrite said:

I’ll still intrigued about the norlun potential as we get closer. Ginxy’s H5 temps really drop off like a rock as that ULL moves in. 

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Could be really intense too...but it looks like it might be too far east....downeast maine could actually be in a good spot. Acadia FTW....could clip the Cape too. But yeah, if that ULL trends a little SW, it could get pretty interesting.

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  On 1/26/2021 at 1:23 PM, Spanks45 said:

some warm air aloft pushing in and not having strong enough rates leads to quicker changeover than forecasted or even a changeover where it wasn't forecasted....just saying something to watch, not saying that it is going to happen.

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It did this with the last storm too. It says seller but then you look at the sounding and nothing supports it. 

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  On 1/26/2021 at 1:25 PM, Sn0waddict said:

It did this with the last storm too. It says seller but then you look at the sounding and nothing supports it. 

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I looked at the soundings and didn't see anything either, it warming just above 850, but never got too warm....could just be the model seeing spotty, lighter precip. 

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  On 1/26/2021 at 1:25 PM, Sn0waddict said:

It did this with the last storm too. It says seller but then you look at the sounding and nothing supports it. 

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It's the way the ptype algorithm is converted to graphics. When you see sleet on most of these sites, it could be all sleet, mostly snow with a little sleet mixed in, or somewhere in between. I had to look it up after last time.

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  On 1/26/2021 at 1:11 PM, dendrite said:

I’ll still intrigued about the norlun potential as we get closer. Ginxy’s H5 temps really drop off like a rock as that ULL moves in. 

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  On 1/26/2021 at 1:24 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Could be really intense too...but it looks like it might be too far east....downeast maine could actually be in a good spot. Acadia FTW....could clip the Cape too. But yeah, if that ULL trends a little SW, it could get pretty interesting.

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Let's get this a tad SW. Instability is there with some TTs up there just need some RH

download (79).png

download (81).png

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  On 1/26/2021 at 1:21 PM, CoastalWx said:

It seems a little aggressive with sleet since I don't see anything in the column above 32 on the soundings. It's done that before. Maybe right near the coast closer to the warm tongue, but too aggressive IMO.

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It's ZL. Probably some nucleation issues with crappier lift. Pretty cold around 850 though, but the lift is in the meh zone. The RH drops off to Death Valley levels above the cloud layer.

image.png

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  On 1/26/2021 at 1:43 PM, dendrite said:

It's ZL. Probably some nucleation issues with crappier lift. Pretty cold around 850 though, but the lift is in the meh zone. The RH drops off to Death Valley levels above the cloud layer.

image.png

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Even that may be crappy snow with winds off the Atlantic. Perhaps it could be ZL with light rates. Pretty cold below 850. I just remember it had something like that to the pike in one event and it was all snow.  I don't disagree..just not sure it will be up to I-84 like it shows. 

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  On 1/26/2021 at 1:47 PM, CoastalWx said:

Even that may be crappy snow with winds off the Atlantic. Perhaps it could be ZL with light rates. Pretty cold below 850. I just remember it had something like that to the pike in one event and it was all snow. 

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Yeah I always feel like models overestimate the nucleation issues out here...probably the salt nuclei like you said. It seems to be a bigger problem in the midwest and plains where you're pulling off ZR despite a sounding completely below 0C.

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