Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: can you post Google? From your boy Matt Noyes First, what is a "Norlun Instability Trough?" A trough is a weak disturbance in the atmosphere - in this case, near the surface - marked by lower surface barometric pressure that results from converging wind direction and speed. Surface convergence of air results in rising air (afterall, air converging at the surface must go either up or down, and clearly can't go into the ground), and rising air produces clouds and precipitation. Hence, troughs can focus locally heavier bands of precipitation. It was noted by operational forecasters Steve NOgueiRa and Weir LUNdstedt (Nor-Lun) that these troughs, when inverted (extending northwest from a surface low) and beneath a middle and upper level atmospheric cold pool, could result in very strong, localized bands of precipitation. On occasion, these narrow but intense bands of snow could produce in excess of one foot of snow, and largely were missed by computer guidance. Mr. Norgueira and Lundstedt both worked to find methods of forecasting these events, even when computer modeling missed them. Since their initial study in 1992, computer modeling has improved significantly, and these events often are projected in advance, though placement and intensity continues to be a challenge, especially in more complex setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: From your boy Matt Noyes First, what is a "Norlun Instability Trough?" A trough is a weak disturbance in the atmosphere - in this case, near the surface - marked by lower surface barometric pressure that results from converging wind direction and speed. Surface convergence of air results in rising air (afterall, air converging at the surface must go either up or down, and clearly can't go into the ground), and rising air produces clouds and precipitation. Hence, troughs can focus locally heavier bands of precipitation. It was noted by operational forecasters Steve NOgueiRa and Weir LUNdstedt (Nor-Lun) that these troughs, when inverted (extending northwest from a surface low) and beneath a middle and upper level atmospheric cold pool, could result in very strong, localized bands of precipitation. On occasion, these narrow but intense bands of snow could produce in excess of one foot of snow, and largely were missed by computer guidance. Mr. Norgueira and Lundstedt both worked to find methods of forecasting these events, even when computer modeling missed them. Since their initial study in 1992, computer modeling has improved significantly, and these events often are projected in advance, though placement and intensity continues to be a challenge, especially in more complex setups. Sounds like a lot of long winded verbiage for a wind shift to NW that causes enhanced precip 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Educate yourself here with what a Norlun is. http://www.weatheranswer.com/public/NORLUN2.pdf 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 It’s a special type of inv trough. What you guys are mentioning is more of an inv trough feature and not a NORLUN. In any case, we’ll have to see how that sets up. Guidance is not totally in agreement which isn’t surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It’s a special type of inv trough. What you guys are mentioning is more of an inv trough feature and not a NORLUN. In any case, we’ll have to see how that sets up. Guidance is not totally in agreement which isn’t surprising. Are you actually related to mr. Norlun or is this a joke? Asking for a friend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It’s a special type of inv trough. What you guys are mentioning is more of an inv trough feature and not a NORLUN. In any case, we’ll have to see how that sets up. Guidance is not totally in agreement which isn’t surprising. Upper air cold pool being distinguishing feature of Norlun. Basically INVT meets Windex 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2021 Author Share Posted January 26, 2021 20 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Are you actually related to mr. Norlun or is this a joke? Asking for a friend. Steve Nogueira is Scooter’s dad. 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Steve Nogueira is Scooter’s dad. oh nice thats cool, didnt know thought it could be a coincidence. Figured on here, you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2021 Author Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, The 4 Seasons said: oh nice thats cool, didnt know thought it could be a coincidence. Figured on here, you never know. Lol I’m just messing around. He already mentioned further back in the thread that there was no relation. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Lol I’m just messing around. He already mentioned further back in the thread that there was no relation. christ. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 LOL. All good Mr Seasons. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said: christ. Are you related to the hotel people or the landscaping company people? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 I bet if Scooter did his ancestory dna he’ll find Steve on the first page of his relative report. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, mreaves said: Are you related to the hotel people or the landscaping company people? theres a press conference at one of those two, you have to figure out which one. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 At some point Mets are going to bump it up. HRRR is warning level in many spots, snow growth looks pretty good to this untrained eye 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Steve Nogueira is Scooter’s dad. So Scooter can also be called, "Son of Norlun"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 minute ago, Go Kart Mozart said: So Scooter can also be called, "Son of Norlun"? Son of a something 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Son of a something I’ve been called son of a something. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Something seems wrong with the NAM. It has holes in the sim reflectivity over areas that don’t move and make no sense at all from a meteorological standpoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2021 Author Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: Something seems wrong with the NAM. It has holes in the sim reflectivity over areas that don’t move and make no sense at all from a meteorological standpoint. Dendrite pointed it out on one of the earlier runs too. It looks glitchy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 PF and I mentioned this morning in the NNE thread about the qpf distribution was odd looking on the Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Lol . It’s an area where winds shift on N or nw side of low. What do you think it is? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Something seems wrong with the NAM. It has holes in the sim reflectivity over areas that don’t move and make no sense at all from a meteorological standpoint. You mean besides it being the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Something seems wrong with the NAM. It has holes in the sim reflectivity over areas that don’t move and make no sense at all from a meteorological standpoint. Ya went from snow all over to nothing in one frame on on Tropical tidbits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 27 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: At some point Mets are going to bump it up. HRRR is warning level in many spots, snow growth looks pretty good to this untrained eye It looks really good, at least for your area with the initial push for about a couple hours then drops off like a rock and lift in the DGZ is awful. This is HR22 vs HR24.This is just one run of one model, outside of its normal run time but looking at the two big ones where i can see snow growth, NAM and GFS, are not too impressive. With that said, i do think 1-2 that OKX has is on the low side but right now i dont feel too comfortable going much higher than 2-5. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 2-5” is a good range for sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 The white holes never fill in and stay the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Dendrite pointed it out on one of the earlier runs too. It looks glitchy. Yeah I saw. It seemed to start this morning from what I noticed. Weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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