rimetree Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 NAM FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, dendrite said: 3k not as impressed for north of the Pike, but still a few inches. Looks good for SE MA. The inv trough is looking decent too. There's been some hint on modeling of an area right along the coast around EWB having a localized max. Seen it on the NAM/RGEMEuro/GFSv16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2021 Author Share Posted January 26, 2021 The IVT tomorrow night in E MA and SE NH is pretty impressive on the NAM and 3km....it's several tenths of QPF with the low level lift intersecting at about -8C to -10C. That could potentially be pretty nice with the salt nuclei. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 I definitely like both Nammy's. Will have to watch late Wed night into Thursday around here. Temps get borderline near the coast tomorrow, so could be a little RASN in lighter rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Things looking better and better as we close in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2021 Author Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I definitely like both Nammy's. Will have to watch late Wed night into Thursday around here. Temps get borderline near the coast tomorrow, so could be a little RASN in lighter rates. Tomorrow might not even precipitate for a chunk of the day....might be like 37F and overcast with spitting drizzle or a few cruddy flakes before it reignites tomorrow night under the IVT. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Losing bit in south coast. Already 32. Hopefully get an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Hmmm...that 12z NAM has me intrigued with the IVT feature. Goes to town for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Trend is not your friend in CT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Well, from about HFD on south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2021 Author Share Posted January 26, 2021 Still gotta watch Thursday night too for extreme eastern zones...esp downeast ME to Cape Ann and maybe Cape Cod...but even NAM is trying to get a little finger of precip inland a little ways. That's a pretty unstable sounding so something to keep an eye on. 900mb winds almost turn N to NNE around there....so in addition to the LL convergence, there's a chance of an OES band or two to develop for time on Cape Ann and Cape Cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 I’ve got 1-2” up to the Merritt with 2-4” north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: Hmmm...that 12z NAM has me intrigued with the IVT feature. Goes to town for a while. Hopefully I can get into kind of a sweet spot, where I can get the dying lift from the initial surge to the west, then catch the INVT snows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 33 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Why wouldn't you use a short term model for an event that is mere hours away? Why would you be using a model with known issues and biases, as Mets mentioned? You look ok.. but then you toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Still gotta watch Thursday night too for extreme eastern zones...esp downeast ME to Cape Ann and maybe Cape Cod...but even NAM is trying to get a little finger of precip inland a little ways. That's a pretty unstable sounding so something to keep an eye on. 900mb winds almost turn N to NNE around there....so in addition to the LL convergence, there's a chance of an OES band or two to develop for time on Cape Ann and Cape Cod. I expect nothing from the IVT, but it gives me hope for a positive bust out this way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Tomorrow might not even precipitate for a chunk of the day....might be like 37F and overcast with spitting drizzle or a few cruddy flakes before it reignites tomorrow night under the IVT. That's what I envision. Probably that wet mid 30s look with some spats of snow or rain. Winds stay more N inland so I would think it wouldn't be too warm there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 If I'm reading this correctly, there's decent omega in the DGZ, as well as decent saturation. This is 01z on the 13z HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Still gotta watch Thursday night too for extreme eastern zones...esp downeast ME to Cape Ann and maybe Cape Cod...but even NAM is trying to get a little finger of precip inland a little ways. That's a pretty unstable sounding so something to keep an eye on. 900mb winds almost turn N to NNE around there....so in addition to the LL convergence, there's a chance of an OES band or two to develop for time on Cape Ann and Cape Cod. Like the WAA from Maine at 850 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said: Well, from about HFD on south With yesterday’s model runs I was tempted to Poo Poo the NWS conservative ideas about this but sometimes they are right to hold back a bit... we will see maybe upcoming short terms will correct back south a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: Like the WAA from Maine at 850 lol. Shades of 2010 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Shades of 2010 lol Tamarack just chopped down a Chestnut Tree in disgust. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2021 Author Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Like the WAA from Maine at 850 lol. The omega is actually half-decent back to like ORH.....that definitely has a little bit of bust potential. I wouldn't forecast accumulations right now for Thursday night, but that's kind of a red flag. Several parameters in place. Models don;t like to spit out QPF in the arctic airmasses like that and often screw it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 One thing that you can take to the bank is that ORH will be just far enough NE to catch that OMEGA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2021 Author Share Posted January 26, 2021 3 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: I expect nothing from the IVT, but it gives me hope for a positive bust out this way. You may be a little on the warm side for the first IVT tomorrow night with 34-35F slop....but you also might get a 32-33F paster. We'll have to see. The 2nd IVT Thursday night is in the arctic airmass and that is where there could be a surprise on Cape Ann. That could be a true Norlun type setup if it broke right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 ORH is quite the weenie location... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The omega is actually half-decent back to like ORH.....that definitely has a little bit of bust potential. I wouldn't forecast accumulations right now for Thursday night, but that's kind of a red flag. Several parameters in place. Models don;t like to spit out QPF in the arctic airmasses like that and often screw it up. Just looked. Saturated nicely in the DGZ for a time, but little QPF to show. Hmmm. I know NW winds at the surface may try to eat away at some of that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: One thing that you can take to the bank is that ORH will be just far enough NE to catch that OMEGA. Yup. They always catch the ‘it’. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: You may be a little on the warm side for the first IVT tomorrow night with 34-35F slop....but you also might get a 32-33F paster. We'll have to see. The 2nd IVT Thursday night is in the arctic airmass and that is where there could be a surprise on Cape Ann. That could be a true Norlun type setup if it broke right. Do you think I am to far southwest for anything meaningful snow wise Thursday night/Friday? 12z NAM went bonkers with QPF over the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2021 Author Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Just looked. Saturated nicely in the DGZ for a time, but little QPF to show. Hmmm. I know NW winds at the surface may try to eat away at some of that. Yeah it's like the lowest 2-3k feet of the atmosphere it's struggling with. But that can often be overplayed....esp near the coast. If the lowest levels are more like N aroudn Cape Ann, then that's where something could go nuts. Obviously digging that ULL further southwest will help the tug the sfc IVT further west too....so they are all connected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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