ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Starting this thread for the Jan 26-27 overrunning snows. Favored is southwest but some of the model guidance today is showing some better potential for further north and also prolonging the snows with an inverted trough. GFS was the most weenie-ish so I’ll post it, first but other guidance is suggesting reasonable chance for advisory snows somewhere in SNE....you’ll notice the heavier band in central NY that points toward SNE and it’s on almost all the guidance...we’ll need to watch if that can maintain longer as we get closer to the event...that is the key for getting more than an inch or two 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 I'd be happy with a solid coating. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Any and all snow is welcome here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 I'll take it and be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 ENS are pretty stout for .4 or so for a good portion of SNE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Moving this post here: I mentioned this yesterday in a post so long that no one likely read it ( lol...) ... we could end up in protracted/saturating easterly fetch into cold thickness out of this... Tues night primes the wick by saturating the column. The more important miss moves by to the south. The latter of which perpetuates with the establishment of a long fetch off the Atlantic... The GFS QPF is mapping persistent albeit light contamination ongoing through the mid week period and this has actually been both on and off cycle but is believable given that foresaid synopsis. Could snow lightly for a long time... mixing with freezing drizzle and grains when not aggregated. Gray wintry pall to the atmosphere ... Also, that kind of set up can manifest an inversion a bit where the WB layer is beneath the 700 mb ...and then you get a low sounding growth region and the snow may sneaky come down at an appeal that is a category heavier then radar depiction. Kind of a street lamps romanticizer ... Yeah, bunner cash in OES embedded too - That's taking the GFS operational verbatim though - heh...always a risk. But we are under 108 hours so... it may be worth it to start ruminating details. I would also be weary ... when that SPC chunk comes down ...watch that NORLUN QPF hook out there...It's been flagged in the ICON too and it's really a NORLUN vestige out over the the water as it is.. So yeah 26 and 27 but it may be 2.5 day smear for us... miss the storm but generate our own concern from geographic circumstance. Having the N-S elevation striations through the area helps that, too. nice - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Euro has a solid band near the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 yeah solid 2-4 in that area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, Bostonseminole said: yeah solid 2-4 in that area Nice band from about Kevin to Bob up to the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Nice band from about Kevin to Bob up to the pike. From your weenie to Ray’s lips 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Nice band from about Kevin to Bob up to the pike. 1-2" here, fine, tired of looking at grass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 1 minute ago, Bostonseminole said: 1-2" here, fine, tired of looking at grass Yeah fairly widespread. I feel like this solution make sense. Decent WAA moving in too aloft. Maybe another tick or two left in this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 should we extend this thread to the 28th? looks like light snow also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, Bostonseminole said: should we extend this thread to the 28th? looks like light snow also It starts Tuesday and continues right into the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 4 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: 1-2" here, fine, tired of looking at grass Let’s somehow bump this to 2-3” and even most blades of grass will be covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2021 Author Share Posted January 24, 2021 1 minute ago, Bostonseminole said: should we extend this thread to the 28th? looks like light snow also It might go into the 28th ala Tip’s post. Depends on the orientation of the ocean storm and upper air but I could see that playing out...kind of the “clear air mode radar elements moving in from the E or NE”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Nice to see one break right for the ASATT crew. Pulling for ya. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: It might go into the 28th ala Tip’s post. Depends on the orientation of the ocean storm and upper air but I could see that playing out...kind of the “clear air mode radar elements moving in from the E or NE”. days and days of flurries lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: It might go into the 28th ala Tip’s post. Depends on the orientation of the ocean storm and upper air but I could see that playing out...kind of the “clear air mode radar elements moving in from the E or NE”. Time for some Cape Ann revenge for getting screwed so often. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It might go into the 28th ala Tip’s post. Depends on the orientation of the ocean storm and upper air but I could see that playing out...kind of the “clear air mode radar elements moving in from the E or NE”. And not to beat the topic ... actually, is there a NORLUN checklist ? ...you know - like there is for WINDEXing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 10 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Nice to see one break right for the ASATT crew. Pulling for ya. What do we call the people complaining every day about lack of snow? ASHATTS? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: And not to beat the topic ... actually, is there a NORLUN checklist ? ...you know - like there is for WINDEXing Tip, I think we are leaning towards a potential full phase of the PV lobe with the southern stream system. Has there ever been a scenario where the PV phases with the southern stream? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Looks like mostly nuisance mood snows.... a couple inches over 24 hours isn’t exactly snowing to beat the band 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2021 Author Share Posted January 24, 2021 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: And not to beat the topic ... actually, is there a NORLUN checklist ? ...you know - like there is for WINDEXing It’s essentially the same as the WINDEX checklist except a few tweaks (as you know, the instability parameters will be similar) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Tip, I think we are leaning towards a potential full phase of the PV lobe with the southern stream system. Has there ever been a scenario where the PV phases with the southern stream? Three buns 3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Looks like mostly nuisance mood snows.... a couple inches over 24 hours isn’t exactly snowing to beat the band Two buns 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Not sure if these people are trustworthy, but a bunch of stuff about NORLUNs here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Every piece of guidance skews the southern stream because they are infusing the PV lobe into the shortwave troughing that becomes a longwave off the coast. Previous runs were trying to figure out where this lobe would locate itself over the next few days, they are not set on one location and therefore the PV lobe will continue to migrate in each direction until the models can determine the puzzle it presents. Honestly, I am beginning to lean towards a bigger phase potential because as Tip mentioned previously, the PNA is rising towards the 30th and the NAO is rising as well, so the block will recede some towards the end of the month in this timeframe. The PNA rising will allow the trough to slow down its progress like the RGEM and NAM have been showing towards Day 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 37 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: Time for some Cape Ann revenge for getting screwed so often. Ha, I saw this panel and was thinkin' about your trials and tribulations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: It’s essentially the same as the WINDEX checklist except a few tweaks (as you know, the instability parameters will be similar) NGM LFM we miss the good times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Look at that name in the article. Like I was destined to be a weenie. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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