SnoSki14 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 5 minutes ago, psv88 said: Two days in a row we had large positive temp busts Always go above forecast on wsw flow during sunny days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 The MOS did very well with the high temperatures today. The raw 2m Ts really struggle on days like this. Too bad we don’t have ECMWF MOS freely available. KEWR GFS MOS GUIDANCE 2/06/2021 0000 UTC DT /FEB 6 /FEB 7 /FEB 8 / HR 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 18 00 X/N 45 27 36 22 30 TMP 36 34 32 38 42 42 38 33 30 29 29 31 33 33 31 30 28 25 23 27 26 DPT 23 21 20 20 18 16 15 16 17 18 20 25 26 23 20 17 13 10 7 3 7 CLD FW FW FW CL FW FW FW SC BK OV OV OV OV OV BK FW FW CL CL FW SC WDR 27 24 22 25 26 26 26 26 03 03 04 03 02 34 29 31 31 31 31 31 20 WSP 08 03 06 14 15 13 06 03 02 05 07 09 09 07 09 16 13 11 08 07 03 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Allsnow? Yes. IMO I think we carry this look till the end of February. @snowman19 sent me a nice pm earlier saying that he disagrees but respects me as a forecaster. We shall see what happens 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Well, the 18z gefs is deep winter until further notice. Another retrograding -nao in the long range too. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Hopefully a triple phaser sometime in there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 14 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Hopefully a triple phaser sometime in there It’s showing a nice event on the 18-19th. Here is the 24 hour snowfall and surface maps for that timeframe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 A developing fast-moving storm will bring a swath of snow across parts of the region tomorrow with the highest amounts occurring along the coastline from central New Jersey to southern New England, including Long Island. There is some uncertainty as to how far north the heaviest bands will make it. The 12z HREF and 18z NAM and HRRR favor their being located farther north consistent with the modeled lift. At present, on account of some of the major global guidance and the 3 km NAM favoring a further south positioning of the bands, a compromise idea is adopted. Snowfall estimates for select cities: Boston: 4"-8" Bridgeport: 3"-6" Islip: 4"-8" New York City: 3"-6" Newark: 3"-6" Philadelphia: 3"-6" Poughkeepsie: 2"-4" Providence: 4"-8" Another light snow event could affect parts of the region on Tuesday. Up in Canada's Nunavut Province, temperatures will reach record high levels tomorrow through at least Monday. That push of exceptional warmth will dislodge a frigid Arctic air mass currently located over northwestern Canada. That cold air mass will likely enter the Northern Plains States early next week. Afterward, it could slowly advance eastward and possibly reach the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions just before mid-month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.71°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.03°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through meteorological winter. The SOI was +0.62 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -3.224 today. On February 5 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.111 (RMM). The February 4-adjusted amplitude was 2.001. Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely through the second week of February. The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Since January 1, New York City has picked up 17.5" snow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 hour ago, hudsonvalley21 said: It’s showing a nice event on the 18-19th. Here is the 24 hour snowfall and surface maps for that timeframe. An eternity away 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 GOTTA LOVE THESE 18Z GFS RUNS. GIVES UP THE SUB-ZERO STUFF AND GIVES US 33" OF TOTAL SNOW: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 For entertainment purposes only... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 6 hours ago, Allsnow said: Yes. IMO I think we carry this look till the end of February. @snowman19 sent me a nice pm earlier saying that he disagrees but respects me as a forecaster. We shall see what happens does this sort of remind you of March 2018 I think it was with the frequency of storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Euro got colder for the overunning and coastal for next week Minus 2-4 from it 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 4 hours ago, MJO812 said: Euro got colder for the overunning and coastal for next week Minus 2-4 from it Thing is all the models last night got iffy down here in Philly. Heavy precip aimed more towards your way. I don’t see it getting worse but I guess it could. Just something to keep an eye on. Yesterday it was Mid atlantic & then last night pretty big bump N on most of guidance. This looks like a really good setup for Philly burbs into NYC & SNE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 27degs.(22/32), or -7.0. Today's snow down to just 3"-5" on the models. 39*(54%RH) here at 6am. P> 1017.5mb. 37*(70%RH) P> 1016.1mb at 9am, snowing throughout......... 36* at 9:15am(79%RH). 35*(88%RH) at 9:30am. 34*(94%RH) at 10am. Still 34*(98%) at 2pm. P>1010.9mb. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Threads continue through the 13th, and probably adding something for the 16th-17th centered later today. This seems a bit unusual to have so many wintry events in a 2-3 week period but am enjoying. Snow pack should continue here through at least the 17th. 2 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 27 minutes ago, wdrag said: Threads continue through the 13th, and probably adding something for the 16th-17th centered later today. This seems a bit unusual to have so many wintry events in a 2-3 week period but am enjoying. Snow pack should continue here through at least the 17th. This is a really interesting pattern. It looks like the strongest MJO phase 7 with such intense Greenland blocking. So our area is in the battle zone between the SE Ridge and pressing TPV. The end result will be an unusually high number of winter storm events here. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Eps for next week is nice. Long overrunning. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Morning thoughts... On this date in 1967, a major snowstorm was burying the region. This time around, a fast-moving system will provide parts of the region with a period of heavy snow, but smaller accumulations are likely. New York City, Newark, and Philadelphia will likely pick up 3”-6” snow while Islip sees 4”-8”. Locations such as Newburgh and Poughkeepsie should pick up 2”-4” snow. The HREF ensemble system shows a large area of 4”-6” snows with 6”-8” (and even an area of 8”-10” on eastern Long Island) across northeast New Jersey and eastward. This data provides some confidence that total snowfall will likely exceed the lowest amounts shown on some of the global models. At 8:40 am, the first snow was falling in parts of New York City, including Brooklyn and flurries extended into southern Westchester County. Snow will fall moderately to occasionally heavily at times, especially from late morning into the afternoon. Where banding develops, snow could fall at a rate of 1” per hour. Temperatures will likely top out in the lower and middle 30s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 35° Newark: 35° Philadelphia: 36° Tomorrow will be fair and cold, but another system could bring a period of light snow on Tuesday. Areas to the north and west of Newark and New York City have the best chance of seeing accumulating snow from that system. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 14 hours ago, Allsnow said: Yes. IMO I think we carry this look till the end of February. @snowman19 sent me a nice pm earlier saying that he disagrees but respects me as a forecaster. We shall see what happens Thanks At least for the next 15 days the la Nina SE ridge may help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 14 hours ago, EasternLI said: Well, the 18z gefs is deep winter until further notice. Another retrograding -nao in the long range too. This winter I learned that deep blocking can override a strong enso background state. Really thought the la Nina would bake us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: This winter I learned that deep blocking can override a strong enso background state. Really thought the la Nina would bake us. We're in the midst of a - AO winter. First time in forever. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 10 minutes ago, EasternLI said: We're in the midst of a - AO winter. First time in forever. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Trying so hard to get to 8. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Snowy week on the GFS So far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 This is one of the few times where having a SE ridge may work in our favor. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Cmc now on board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarrenCtyWx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 This month is reminding me of February 2014 so far with the prospect of multiple winter storms over the next couple of weeks. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Ukie for Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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