MJO812 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 13 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Look at the ensembles this far out instead of the ops On cue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 11 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Look at the ensembles this far out instead of the ops Yes that's true. I think there will be a bigger storm to follow shortly after the Arctic plunge. Even if Thursdays storm works out it doesn't scream huge storm to me right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 6, 2021 Author Share Posted February 6, 2021 11 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Yes that's true. I think there will be a bigger storm to follow shortly after the Arctic plunge. Even if Thursdays storm works out it doesn't scream huge storm to me right now. Thursday/Friday is more SWFE and a New England snow event IMO. I don’t like the setup, besides the MJO being out of phase, which is going to allow the SE Ridge to really pump, the PNA looks nowhere near as favorable as it was for last Sunday’s big storm. Also, the TPV orientation is less than ideal. I think we go to all rain in the metro after a start with snow. The snowy models are underestimating the SE Ridge, again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 We need a stronger SE Ridge for more winter storm threats to avoid TPV suppression. Notice how the 120 hr forecast on the EPS has corrected to less cold suppression than 240 hrs. That’s why the EPS has so many winter storm threats here now. New run Old run 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 31 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Thursday/Friday is more SWFE and a New England snow event IMO. I don’t like the setup, besides the MJO being out of phase, which is going to allow the SE Ridge to really pump, the PNA looks nowhere near as favorable as it was for last Sunday’s big storm. Also, the TPV orientation is less than ideal. I think we go to all rain in the metro after a start with snow. The snowy models are underestimating the SE Ridge, again What snowy models ? The ensembles disagree with the ops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 19 minutes ago, bluewave said: We need a stronger SE Ridge for more winter storm threats to avoid TPV suppression. Notice how the 120 hr forecast on the EPS has corrected to less cold suppression than 240 hrs. That’s why the EPS has so many winter storm threats here now. New run Old run Agree but a bit worried ala CMC op run. After the overrunning event we are rain and SE ridge. How do the ensembles look? NAO reloading or anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 6, 2021 Author Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, MJO812 said: What snowy models ? The ensembles disagree with the ops. Remember when the ensembles said tomorrow was going to be suppressed? I’m telling you man, this one is going to end up turning to rain, the models aren’t giving enough respect to the SE Ridge pump again, plus the PNA is not in a favorable spot, the TPV orientation isn’t great either. Don’t get your hopes up with this SWFE, this has New England snow event written all over it. We start as snow, go to rain 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 3 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Remember when the ensembles said tomorrow was going to be suppressed? I’m telling you man, this one is going to end up turning to rain, the models aren’t giving enough respect to the SE Ridge pump again, plus the PNA is not in a favorable spot, the TPV orientation isn’t great either. Don’t get your hopes up with this SWFE, this has New England snow event written all over it. We start as snow, go to rain Models can't even get tomorrow right. What makes you think they will be right this far out for next weekend? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 3 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Remember when the ensembles said tomorrow was going to be suppressed? I’m telling you man, this one is going to end up turning to rain, the models aren’t giving enough respect to the SE Ridge pump again, plus the PNA is not in a favorable spot, the TPV orientation isn’t great either. Don’t get your hopes up with this SWFE, this has New England snow event written all over it. We start as snow, go to rain The AO ,NAO look good. PNA is rising and becoming positive as we head into mid to late February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Another day well above normal and well above forecasts. Mid 40s. JFK has grass peeking thru today. I imagine chunks of southern queens will have grass out and about where snow wasnt piled by the end of the day. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 4 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: Another day well above normal and well above forecasts. Mid 40s. JFK has grass peaking thru today. I imagine chunks of southern queens will have grass out and about where snow wasnt piled by the end of the day. I'm happy its melting It is a disaster here to find parking 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 10 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Agree but a bit worried ala CMC op run. After the overrunning event we are rain and SE ridge. How do the ensembles look? NAO reloading or anything? The CMC has had back to back Op runs now where for like 5 straight days it’s 10 in Memphis with ice and 75 in Birmingham. I don’t buy that an Arctic boundary is going to get held up that long. Even the 00Z Op Euro of having a straight up north to south gradient pattern made more sense. The GFS is pretty much worlds different than both the others and it’s been winning those wars almost all winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 34 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Agree but a bit worried ala CMC op run. After the overrunning event we are rain and SE ridge. How do the ensembles look? NAO reloading or anything? It'll be a fine line between snowy or sleet/rain. I lean snowy due to the scope of the TPV and recent trends but it could lean either way especially near that 40-41N latitude. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 I’d lean minor event for Tuesday but it could get sneaky if enough Atlantic moisture gets thrown in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Ecm has 4 storms in the next 7 days. Won’t be all frozen but definitely interesting pattern 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Euro for Thursday night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Euro for Thursday night Yea that one is probably the best bet for accumulating snow for the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 15 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Yea that one is probably the best bet for accumulating snow for the coast I think the main storm will also trend south. You can see on the ensembles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 I just toggled between the CMC op run at 150-156 at 500mb and GEPS at the same time.. it has to be the most ridiculous difference between an Op run and an ensemble inside Day 8 that I’ve ever seen 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Another day well above normal and well above forecasts. Mid 40s. JFK has grass peeking thru today. I imagine chunks of southern queens will have grass out and about where snow wasnt piled by the end of the day. That’s what happens close the ocean.FWIW, I cannot wait for the snow to slowly melt away. The parking lot at the Trader Joe’s in Florham Park is down to about 2/3 capacity because of the snow removal having nowhere to go. You can’t see around the piles.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: Remember when the ensembles said tomorrow was going to be suppressed? I’m telling you man, this one is going to end up turning to rain, the models aren’t giving enough respect to the SE Ridge pump again, plus the PNA is not in a favorable spot, the TPV orientation isn’t great either. Don’t get your hopes up with this SWFE, this has New England snow event written all over it. We start as snow, go to rain That's a bold statement at this lead time. As currently modeled I'd agree but there's plenty of time. The entire evolution could change. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Wow 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Snow pack into March this year! Wow 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: I think the main storm will also trend south. You can see on the ensembles. Plenty of days to go. I'd be surprised if it was as far north as the Euro shows. I would feel better living in SNE though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 44 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Wow Thanks! Does it show the NAO and AO negative through day 15? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 30 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Thanks! Does it show the NAO and AO negative through day 15? Allsnow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Our extended snow cover build up on the Euro is headed for a hard cement freeze next weekend. So the NWS may have to issue an excessive road salt build up alert. Probably our best chance in a while to drop below 10° in NYC. Manhole explosion watch will be needed for all of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 4 hours ago, jfklganyc said: Another day well above normal and well above forecasts. Mid 40s. JFK has grass peeking thru today. I imagine chunks of southern queens will have grass out and about where snow wasnt piled by the end of the day. Yeah driving around here today it was in the mid 40's. Forecast from Upton was 37. That's a pretty big bust on high temps. Great pic by the way! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, Brian5671 said: Yeah driving around here today it was in the mid 40's. Forecast from Upton was 37. That's a pretty big bust on high temps. Great pic by the way! Two days in a row we had large positive temp busts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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