February 2021

[wdrag]

Will catch up around 5P with probably 2 or 3 new threads dependent on ensembles for the period Feb 9-17.  Hope no one gets sick and tired of snow/ice in our forum. Snowloads could be a problem by the 13th or 17th.  Clear those hydrants for emergency access.

Thread potential for a minor event Feb 9ish (WAA),  a big storm Feb 12-13 and possibly another around the 16th-17th. Need some modeling to downplay one of the 3 and then will go from there.

QPF between 7th-17th could exceed 2" and if mostly snow would be a problem atop what's already settled/melted and will refreeze.  

We seem to be in a highly anomalous period with an unusual sequence of rapidly following 6+ ince snow storms near the I95 corridor. I probably would not harken on general experience that it can't happen...  Already possibly two 6+inch snowstorms within 7 days of each other NYC, and maybe another to follow within week (or maybe not?). 

I just want to digest all the ensembles and op modeling (CFS included).  

[jm1220]

Highs well above expectations again and the sun is out. Pretty mild out now with temps in the upper 40s. Lots of melting this afternoon. 

[dWave]

Wow temps pushing 50 under filtered sun and lots of melting.

[Brian5671]

12 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Highs well above expectations again and the sun is out. Pretty mild out now with temps in the upper 40s. Lots of melting this afternoon. 

it's always warmer than modeled in warm ups these days.   43 here but mostly cloudy.  I'd say b/w today and yesterday we've lost half the pack.

[the_other_guy]

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

it's always warmer than modeled in warm ups these days.   43 here but mostly cloudy.  I'd say b/w today and yesterday we've lost half the pack.

Everyone is so busy talking about the next storm, no one is seeing the rapid melting in front of them. 

Kind of a metaphor for life, right?

[NorthShoreWx]

7 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Everyone is so busy talking about the next storm, no one is seeing the rapid melting in front of them. 

Kind of a metaphor for life, right?

It's 50 degrees here.  Warmest day in over a month.  Seems high, could be the sun but I do have a radiation shield around the sensor.

[uncle W]

Feb 5th 1961 was like today...it was the first day in the 40's with two feet on the ground...

[Dan76]

A couple more days like this and all the snow is gone.

[uncle W]

7 minutes ago, Dan76 said:

A couple more days like this and all the snow is gone.

like the song 'Frosty the Snow man' "he'll be back again some day...

[Brian5671]

18 minutes ago, Dan76 said:

A couple more days like this and all the snow is gone.

colder tomorrow and then an average of 6 inches will refresh it....if we even get that the parking lot piles will be enormous

[NorthShoreWx]

49 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

It's 50 degrees here.  Warmest day in over a month.  Seems high, could be the sun but I do have a radiation shield around the sensor.

45 now (Smithtown).

I never trust my backyard setup in strong sunlight, despite the radiation shield.  I think my night time temps are accurate and the daytime are on average a bit high.  Not bad when its cloudy during the day.

When I dip the sensor in ice water it says 32.  Doesn't get much better than that, although it's just dumb luck with an inexpensive sensor. It also doesn't prove accuracy when its much warmer or colder than 32.

I still have an old one several feet over the garage roof.  Thats the one that once recorded 112 on a hot July day.

[STORMANLI]

Commack 48°

[wdrag]

Not starting a thread on the 9th (could be rain or a mix NYC) and its light, so that short duration accumulative snow event of 1-4" should be reserved for the I84 corridor. 

Feb 15-17...too far away with too much uncertainty but this too could be significant.

Starting a thread for 11th-early early 13 in a few minutes. 

Thanks for all the comments-input-views.

[weathermedic]

2 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

45 now (Smithtown).

I never trust my backyard setup in strong sunlight, despite the radiation shield.  I think my night time temps are accurate and the daytime are on average a bit high.  Not bad when its cloudy during the day.

When I dip the sensor in ice water it says 32.  Doesn't get much better than that, although it's just dumb luck with an inexpensive sensor. It also doesn't prove accuracy when its much warmer or colder than 32.

I still have an old one several feet over the garage roof.  Thats the one that once recorded 112 on a hot July day.

Made it up to 49 today on my Davis Vantage Vue which is mounted about 6 ft above my peaked roof.

[bluewave]

Looks like highs maxed out in the upper 40s. So the under 50° day streak continues. This is the 4th longest run since 2010.

Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature < 50 
for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Run Length	Ending Date
Last value also occurred in one or more previous years.
Period of record: 2010-01-01 to 2021-02-04
1	63	2015-03-08
2	42	2011-02-13
3	26	2010-02-20
4	22	2021-02-05
5	19	2014-02-21
-	19	2014-02-01
-	19	2010-12-31
6	18	2018-01-10
7	17	2019-03-10
-	17	2019-01-23

[Cfa]

Topped out at 49 here, low was 27.

[IrishRob17]

3 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

It's 50 degrees here.  Warmest day in over a month.  Seems high, could be the sun but I do have a radiation shield around the sensor.

When I had the Davis Vantage Vue I noted that under a certain conditions of bright sun and little wind that it ran a little high. The fan aspirated radiation shield on the VP2 makes a difference FWIW. The high was 42 up here today. 

[nycwinter]

3 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

It's 50 degrees here.  Warmest day in over a month.  Seems high, could be the sun but I do have a radiation shield around the sensor.

i noticed when i was out waiting for the street light to change how bright the sun looked and how warm it felt sun angle is increasing...

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

i noticed when i was out waiting for the street light to change how bright the sun looked and how warm it felt sun angle is increasing...

Early Feb is when you really start noticing it.  Sunset time is also about 50 minutes later than mid December now....

[MJO812]

21 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

i noticed when i was out waiting for the street light to change how bright the sun looked and how warm it felt sun angle is increasing...

Very sad times

[SnoSki14]

19 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

i noticed when i was out waiting for the street light to change how bright the sun looked and how warm it felt sun angle is increasing...

You get the opposite in early August when the nights begin to get a little shorter and maybe even a cold front passes by to drop the dews briefly. 

But then it quickly goes back to summer again. 

And currently it's very likely that the coldest weather still lies ahead. Actually the fact that we haven't seen many 50+ highs is surprising.

[MJO812]

The signal for a storm on Valentines Day weekend is huge on the ensembles. Too early to discuss the precip type.

[snywx]

46 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

When I had the Davis Vantage Vue I noted that under a certain conditions of bright sun and little wind that it ran a little high. The fan aspirated radiation shield on the VP2 makes a difference FWIW. The high was 42 up here today. 

40 for a high here but we had a good amount of compaction & melt today. Down to 13" at the stake

[IrishRob17]

1 minute ago, snywx said:

40 for a high here but we had a good amount of compaction & melt today. Down to 13" at the stake

This morning I had 12”, obviously under that now. 

[NorthShoreWx]

1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said:

When I had the Davis Vantage Vue I noted that under a certain conditions of bright sun and little wind that it ran a little high. The fan aspirated radiation shield on the VP2 makes a difference FWIW. The high was 42 up here today. 

One of these days I will need to upgrade.  I don't have a fan, just the layered plastic shield.  I think sun off of the snow makes it worse.  I'll write down 50 as todays max, becasue that's all I know, but I think it was slightly cooler.  Down to 33 now (6:50PM).

Also, down to 9" at the stake.

 

[donsutherland1]

In the wake of today's light precipitation event, the weekend will start fair and seasonably cold. However, a fast moving storm will bring a swath of snow across parts of the region on Sunday with the highest amounts occurring along the coastline from central New Jersey to southern New England, including Long Island.

Initial snowfall estimates for select cities:

Boston: 4"-8"
Bridgeport: 4"-8
Islip: 4"-8"
New York City: 4"-8"
Newark: 4"-8"
Philadelphia: 3"-6"
Poughkeepsie: 2"-4"
Providence: 5"-10"

Up in Canada's Nunavut Province, temperatures will reach record high levels tomorrow through at least Monday. That push of exceptional warmth will dislodge a frigid Arctic air mass currently located over northwestern Canada. That cold air mass will likely enter the Northern Plains States early next week. Afterward, it could slowly advance eastward and possibly reach the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions just before mid-month.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.71°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.03°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through meteorological winter.

The SOI was +8.26 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -2.773 today.

On February 4 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.998 (RMM). The February 3-adjusted amplitude was 1.987.

Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely through the second week of February.  

The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Since January 1, New York City has picked up 17.5" snow.

 

[LibertyBell]

On 2/4/2021 at 12:02 PM, bluewave said:

The single digit potential for NYC looks legit. It would be the first La Niña February in NYC since 1996 to drop below 10°.So this winter continues to do its own thing.

La Niña Februaries bolded

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
2020	14	0
2019	11	0
2018	16	0
2017	19	0
2016	-1	0
2015	2	0
2014	9	0
2013	17	0
2012	20	0
2011	15	0
2010	17	0
2009	12	0
2008	10	0
2007	8	0
2006	15	0
2005	16	0
2004	15	0
2003	8	0
2002	19	0
2001	16	0
2000	19	0
1999	14	0
1998	17	0
1997	19	0
1996	5	0

Dec storm was similar to 1995-96, the only thing that separates this winter from 1995-96 right now is the historic Jan 1996 blizzard

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

In the wake of today's light precipitation event, the weekend will start fair and seasonably cold. However, a fast moving storm will bring a swath of snow across parts of the region on Sunday with the highest amounts occurring along the coastline from central New Jersey to southern New England, including Long Island.

Initial snowfall estimates for select cities:

Boston: 4"-8"
Bridgeport: 4"-8
Islip: 4"-8"
New York City: 4"-8"
Newark: 4"-8"
Philadelphia: 3"-6"
Poughkeepsie: 2"-4"
Providence: 5"-10"

Up in Canada's Nunavut Province, temperatures will reach record high levels tomorrow through at least Monday. That push of exceptional warmth will dislodge a frigid Arctic air mass currently located over northwestern Canada. That cold air mass will likely enter the Northern Plains States early next week. Afterward, it could slowly advance eastward and possibly reach the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions just before mid-month.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.71°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.03°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through meteorological winter.

The SOI was +8.26 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -2.773 today.

On February 4 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.998 (RMM). The February 3-adjusted amplitude was 1.987.

Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely through the second week of February.  

The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Since January 1, New York City has picked up 17.5" snow.

 

Don I heard Lee Goldberg say that this storm could be a very rare SW Nassau jackpot of 8 inches.  I also really like that this will be an all day time event, those are very photogenic.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Looks like highs maxed out in the upper 40s. So the under 50° day streak continues. This is the 4th longest run since 2010.

Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature < 50 
for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Run Length	Ending Date
Last value also occurred in one or more previous years.
Period of record: 2010-01-01 to 2021-02-04
1	63	2015-03-08
2	42	2011-02-13
3	26	2010-02-20
4	22	2021-02-05
5	19	2014-02-21
-	19	2014-02-01
-	19	2010-12-31
6	18	2018-01-10
7	17	2019-03-10
-	17	2019-01-23

wow 2015 is in first place by a lot over 2011.....

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

45 now (Smithtown).

I never trust my backyard setup in strong sunlight, despite the radiation shield.  I think my night time temps are accurate and the daytime are on average a bit high.  Not bad when its cloudy during the day.

When I dip the sensor in ice water it says 32.  Doesn't get much better than that, although it's just dumb luck with an inexpensive sensor. It also doesn't prove accuracy when its much warmer or colder than 32.

I still have an old one several feet over the garage roof.  Thats the one that once recorded 112 on a hot July day.

wow 112 is impressive!  You must get really hot there, Ed   The highest I've ever recorded is 105.6 in July 2011 which was the hottest day I've ever experienced.  The previous record was 103.8 recorded just the year before during the hottest summer I ever experienced.