February 2021

[White Gorilla]

3 hours ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Funny how the troll was quiet when everybody recvd 12+ from the latest storm that wasn't going to happen because winter is over. LMAO. 

I used to think weather forums would be the one place where I could avoid trolls, but guess I was wrong. 

[donsutherland1]

Parts of the region experienced snow flurries and even some light snow.

Seasonal snowfall amounts to date include:

Albany: 46.4" (10.3" above normal)
Baltimore: 6.1" (5.1" below normal)
Binghamton: 77.4" (28.7" above normal)
Boston: 24.3" (0.1" below normal)
Bridgeport: 28.9" (14.6" above normal)
Buffalo: 46.5" (17.2" below normal)
Burlington: 44.1" (2.1" below normal)
Caribou: 57.9" (4.9" below normal)
Harrisburg: 24.5" (8.8" above normal)
Islip: 19.5" (6.2" above normal)
New York City: 28.0" (14.9" above normal)
Newark: 31.1" (16.4" above normal)
Philadelphia: 14.7" (3.4" above normal)
Portland: 34.5" (1.2" below normal)
Providence: 18.4" (1.8" below normal)
Washington, DC: 3.5" (5.6" below normal)

Somewhat milder air will return to the region in coming days, but its stay won't be long. Another shot of cold air will likely arrive during or after the coming weekend.

Prospects of snowfall have diminished. The number of EPS members showing measurable snowfall has fallen over the past two cycles. The operational guidance also suggests that a storm will pass too far to the south and east of the region on Sunday to have much if any impact. Nevertheless, there remains some uncertainty.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.71°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.03°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through meteorological winter.

The SOI was +18.01 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -2.762.

On February 2 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 2.382 (RMM). The February 1-adjusted amplitude was 2.074.

Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely through the middle of the second week of February.  

The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Since January 1, New York City has picked up 17.5" snow.

 

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Maybe the greater storm threat occurs if the western edge of that elongated TPV pinches off? It would match past times that we had a big -AO block that retrograded.  We would also be entering a favorable PNA spike period. 

President’s day weekend has always been friendly to us 

[wdrag]

On WPC snow amount probs for Long Island, which i like to use as a self check for expectations. This should provide greater understanding of some of the problems and is offered as helpful information for those who may use this guidance. 

---

 

I agree with you that this guidance looks pretty bad.  I looked back at some individual members of the ensemble, and it wasn't a QPF problem, but a precip type issue. I think that a large part of this has to do with the resolution of the ensembles.  The GEFS is only 1/4 degree and the ECMWF ensemble is 1/2 degree.  These two sources are pretty predominant through the entire forecast period, and I'd assume they can't handle what are probably relatively sharp temperature gradients and/or are including nearby warmer SSTs in the grid boxes due to the geography of the area.  The higher resolution Day 1 guidance did not suffer from this error, but don't make up a large percentage of the ensemble, so they tend to get lost in the calculations.

 

Unfortunately, a short fuse fix is not really possible.  To solve this problem, we'd need to use mainly high resolution guidance (at least for Day 1) and cut out the lower-resolution ensembles.  This is a big change, and to get approval would be difficult.  In addition, we'd have to do a fair amount of testing to see if the results would be acceptable.  

 

We have this problem with lake effect, too.  We are starting to explore running smaller domains with different ensemble membership to improve the lake effect.  We could try something similar for nor'easters.

 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

President’s day weekend has always been friendly to us 

PNA spike is supposed to happen on Vday and beyond.

[LibertyBell]

13 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Haha 

developing black hole over Lake Superior?

[LibertyBell]

13 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Very cold on the euro next week with the TPV over Minnesota. 

lol I wonder why people call it the TPV....it should just be the PV

[LibertyBell]

19 hours ago, bluewave said:

The coming pattern is a great example of we need extreme blocking these days to get really cold around here. This will be one of the strongest west based blocks at 500 mb that we have seen during the month of February.  Models have  a 5.5 SD west based block in the coming days.

 

coldest weather in a few years upcoming? hopefully not cold and dry

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 31degs.(26/36), or -2.0.

Not much snow or any precipitation to yelp about.        If Arctic air doesn't Dilly Dally and warm up while getting here---maybe it will be the topic of discussion.       EURO still the coldest, but not sub-zero anymore.

32*(59%RH) here at 6am.       31* at 7am.      38* by Noon.     Really nice out there if you stay clear of the melting going on.            42* by 3pm.         45* by 4:30pm.       Back to 40* by 6pm.

[wdrag]

Focus below is the I-84 corridor inclusive of just w and n of NYC by just a few miles. 

 

May post an OBS thread for this at 530PM if it looks close enough to NYC to measure. For now probably not. 

 

Friday 4AM-2PM: Two bands of snow cross the area with 1/2-2" accumulations Poconos - nw NJ (high terrain there)  and Trace to around 1 inch CT/MA. Slight chance of freezing rain mix but mostly snow. It will be slippery on untreated surfaces in ne PA/nw NJ Friday morning, and may be slippery in norther CT and MA, especially high terrain.

[lee59]

Nice to see some blue sky and sun again.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

At 8 am, the last snow showers associated with the departing storm responsible for this week’s heavy snowfall were located in eastern Massachusetts. Today will be mostly sunny and seasonably cold. Temperatures will likely top out in the upper 30s and lower 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 40°

Newark: 41°

Philadelphia: 39°

Tomorrow will be variably cloudy with some rain and possibly snow showers. Snow showers will likely be confined north and west of Newark and New York City.

During tomorrow and the weekend, temperatures could surge to record high levels in Canada’s Nunavut Province. That push of that warmth will dislodge a very cold air mass from northwestern Canada. It remains to be seen whether that air mass will eventually push into the region. If so, it likely would not arrive until late next week.

[donsutherland1]

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

lol I wonder why people call it the TPV....it should just be the PV

TPV = tropopause polar vortex

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s been a while since The U.S.has gotten this cold during a La Niña February.

 

Check out the gfs after next weekends storm

Brutally cold air

[CIK62]

10" of Snow near the 13th.(not shown) plus single digit lows to follow?       I show Minneapolis first so we seem warm.     

[MJO812]

No cutter on geps for next Tuesday

[Allsnow]

Euro has front end snows next week now 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Euro has front end snows next week now 

Ensembles on the CMC are further south

 This might end up as a Miller B or a SWFE.

[Allsnow]

Lol. Bamwx 

[Allsnow]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I can’t remember the last time we had so much cold across the entire CONUS.

 

 

@snowman19

[the_other_guy]

Warm today. City was downright balmy.

 

Over performed and lots of melting

[MJO812]

Next 3 storms on the GFS

Crusher on the gfs for vday

[Brian5671]

48 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Warm today. City was downright balmy.

 

Over performed and lots of melting

my davis hit 46!   Lost about 4-5 inches of snow due to compaction/melting.

[Fantom X]

Yeah it's the operational GPS but still a crazy cold solution. Will see if it flip flops again

 

[crossbowftw3]

Just now, Fantom X said:

Yeah it's the operational GPS but still a crazy cold solution. Will see if it flip flops again

 

subfreezing highs to the Southern Coastlines would not be a good thing at all lol

[White Gorilla]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Next 3 storms on the GFS

Crusher on the gfs for vday

V Day way too far away.  But if the signal is strong this far out, that is worth tracking 

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

V Day way too far away.  But if the signal is strong this far out, that is worth tracking 

It is 

[donsutherland1]

Sunshine returned today. In response, temperatures rose into the lower 40s.

Another shot of cold air will likely arrive during or after the coming weekend. That push of cold air could be preceded by a storm. At present, there continues to be uncertainty about the track and impact of the storm. At least a light or moderate impact remains possible for parts of the region, especially coastal areas and Long Island. Recent guidance has begun to move toward at such a snowfall.

Meanwhile, up in Canada's Nunavut Province, temperatures will likely surge to record high levels tomorrow through at least Sunday. That push of exceptional warmth will dislodge a frigid Arctic air mass currently located over northwestern Canada. That cold air mass will likely enter the Northern Plains States early next week. Afterward, it could slowly advance eastward and possibly reach the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions just before mid-month.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.71°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.03°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through meteorological winter.

The SOI was +19.12 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -2.981 today.

On February 3 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.982 (RMM). The February 2-adjusted amplitude was 2.386.

Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely through the second week of February.  

The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Since January 1, New York City has picked up 17.5" snow.

 

[CIK62]

GET THIS.        16" OF TOTAL SNOW AND LOWEST T's SINCE 1943.       And this ain't Minnesota!!!!!      -6 !!!!!!!!!!! Folks.   It isn't Minnesota........but it is the 18Z GFS.

This is Minneapolis:        14 Straight Sub-Zero Days!!!!!       Anyone know what their records look like for this type of event?

[wdrag]

Hi!  No topic quite yet for 9/10??, or more likely 12-14,  but need another day or two to see if modeling is erratic. I like the potential. We're certainly on the northern side of an active blocked southern stream.  It's how far north that they can poke northward?