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February 2021


snowman19
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Newark actually made the top 10 for snowiest DJF. 
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Dec through Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Season
Total Snowfall 
Missing Count
1 1960-1961 69.5 0
2 2010-2011 66.0 0
3 1995-1996 62.8 0
4 2013-2014 60.5 0
5 1993-1994 55.8 0
6 1977-1978 52.9 0
7 2009-2010 47.9 0
8 1947-1948 47.0 2
9 2020-2021 45.7 2
10 2002-2003 44.8 0
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Another round of rain will move into the region tomorrow. Temperatures will run 5°-10° cooler than today's highs.

The first week of March will see variable temperatures, even as the week averages cooler than normal. A short but sharp cold shot is possible near the end of the first week of March. Afterward, the ensembles are in good agreement that there will be a warming trend.

Statistical guidance based on the state of the ENSO and forecast teleconnections implies that the first half of March could wind up generally 1°-3° above normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. The latest dynamical guidance is suggests temperature anomalies toward the bottom of that range for the first half of March.

During the 1991-2020 base period, the March 1-10 temperature has averaged 39.7° in New York City and 40.9° in Philadelphia. Measurable snow fell on 10% of days for both cities. During cases when the AO was +1.000 or above and the PNA was negative, the state of the SOI often made the difference between a colder/snowier or warmer/less snowy outcome. When the SOI was negative, the mean temperature in New York City was 39.5° and it was 39.6° in Philadelphia. Measurable snow fell on 20% of days in New York City and 17% of days in Philadelphia (well above the climatological frequency). When the SOI was positive, the mean temperature in New York City was 41.6° and it was 42.3° in Philadelphia. In such cases, measurable snow was observed on 13% of days in both cities. In sum, if this data holds up, even as a milder regime settles in, there could be some chance of a measurable snow event during the first 10 days of March in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Interior sections would likely be favored for measurable snow, as would central and upstate New York and New England.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around February 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.93°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through mid-March.

The SOI was +1.44 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.496 today.

On February 26 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.046 (RMM). The February 25-adjusted amplitude was 1.184. Over the past five days, the MJO has moved from Phase 7 to Phase 5.

Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely through the first week of March. This will be the last notice about the state of the stratosphere until next winter, as the typical seasonal warming lies ahead in March.  

The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Since January 1, New York City has picked up 28.1" snow.

Winters that saw December receive 10" or more snow, less than 10" in January, and then 10" or more in February in New York City, saw measurable snowfall in March or April in 83% of cases. Winter 2009-2010 was the exception where only a trace of snow was recorded. This group of winters saw 6" or more snow during the March-April period in 50% of the cases. All said, it is more likely than not that there will be measurable snowfall after February.  

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal February. February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 33.9° (1.4° below normal).

 

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18 hours ago, uncle W said:

NYC's coldest max this winter is 25 in late January...it makes two years in a row with 25 being the coldest max...coldest max in NYC in modern times was the nine max in January 1985...2019-20 as bad as it was did have a very cold outbreak with a max of 14 and another teen max in January...2017-18 had five days with a max in the teens...the most in recent years is six in 1978-79 and 1981-82...

winters total teen max and lowest max for NYC...2001-02 has the highest...
2020-21...0....25

2019-20...0....25

2018-19...2....14

2017-18...5....13

2016-17...0....23

2015-16...1....15

2014-15...1....19

2013-14...3....17

2012-13...0....20
2011-12...0....27.
2010-11...0....23.
2009-10...0....20
2008-09...1....16
2007-08...0....20
2006-07...1....18
2005-06...0....24
2004-05...2....18
2003-04...4....15
2002-03...1....15
2001-02...0....31
2000-01...0....25
1999-00...1....19
1998-99...0....25.
1997-98...0....29.
1996-97...1....17
1995-96...3....17
1994-95...0....20
1993-94...5....10
1992-93...0....27
1991-92...0....23
1990-91...0....20
1989-90...1....18
1988-89...0....20.
1987-88...1....17
1986-87...1....19
1985-86...0....22
1984-85...1......9
1983-84...3....13
1982-83...0....21
1981-82...6....15
1980-81...3....14
1979-80...0....21
1978-79...6....13
1977-78...0....21
1976-77...5....12
1975-76...2....15
1974-75...0....27
1973-74...0....22
1972-73...1....18.
1971-72...1....15
1970-71...4....12
1969-70...3....14
1968-69...0....22
1967-68...4....13
1966-67...1....16
1965-66...1....19
1964-65...3....16
1963-64...0....22
1962-63...1....13
1961-62...0....24
1960-61...2....19
1959-60...0....23
1958-59...0....22
1957-58...2....10
1956-57...1....12
1955-56...1....18
1954-55...1....17
1953-54...0....21
1952-53...0....29.
1951-52...0....20
1950-51...0....20
1949-50...0....22
1948-49...0....22.
1947-48...2....18.
......................................................................
1942-43...2......8.
1935-36...4....16
1934-35...5....16
1933-34...6......8.
1917-18.12......2.

9 in Jan 1985?  I thought it was 7 with a low of -2 lol.  How many times has NYC seen a high of single digits or lower and do you have a breakdown of when it happened and what the min/max were on those days?  Thanks!

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17 hours ago, bluewave said:

Newark actually made the top 10 for snowiest DJF. 
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Dec through Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Season
Total Snowfall 
Missing Count
1 1960-1961 69.5 0
2 2010-2011 66.0 0
3 1995-1996 62.8 0
4 2013-2014 60.5 0
5 1993-1994 55.8 0
6 1977-1978 52.9 0
7 2009-2010 47.9 0
8 1947-1948 47.0 2
9 2020-2021 45.7 2
10 2002-2003 44.8 0

Allentown did too I think, #7?  That list is interesting, 1995-96 ended up #1 by a wide margin and 2002-03 ended up being much better than this snow season was, by virtue of the largest event being much larger and also getting a major event in April.

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The last day of February is averaging 38degs.

Month to date is  33.8[-1.3].      February will end at 34.0[-1.3].

Another Switch-eroo for the GFS.     The first 10 days of March are averaging 35degs. (28/42), or -5.0---but no snow showing.       The first 8 days of March two years ago were -10.0 with 10" of snow.

44*(78%RH) here at 6am.     Was 43* at 3am.      46* by 9am.        50* by Noon.       46* again at  1pm.   after precipitation  started.

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3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Allentown did too I think, #7?  That list is interesting, 1995-96 ended up #1 by a wide margin and 2002-03 ended up being much better than this snow season was, by virtue of the largest event being much larger and also getting a major event in April.

Very unusual to get a snowy winter with such a tucked in storm track. This is only the 3rd time since 1996 that EWR had near 10” or more of snow than ISP or BNL. I use BNL before 2010 due to missing ISP snowfall data. This winter featured the record south based blocking and record warm SSTs east of New England. So this allowed the ridge to build east of New England with storm tracks very close to Southern NJ. Most other years we had more of a benchmark storm track further east favoring Suffolk over Newark.

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Ending Date
Islip Snowfall 
Newark Snowfall 
2021-04-30 33.5 45.7
2020-04-30 6.8 6.9
2019-04-30 12.8 22.0
2018-04-30 65.9 39.4
2017-04-30 39.3 30.0
2016-04-30 41.4 32.8
2015-04-30 63.7 46.4
2014-04-30 63.7 61.1
2013-04-30 46.9 29.5
2012-04-30 4.7 8.8
2011-04-30 55.3 68.2
2010-04-30 53.8 47.9
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Ending Date
Newark Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30
BNL  LI Snowfall
2009-04-30 27.1 43
2008-04-30 14.6 11.5
2007-04-30 16.5 9.5
2006-04-30 37.9 30.5
2005-04-30 43.4 78.5
2004-04-30 47.8 60.2
2003-04-30 53.1 62.1
2002-04-30 3.6 5.5
2001-04-30 39.3 51.2
2000-04-30 18.4 14.0
1999-04-30 12.8 23.0
1998-04-30 6.9 4.5
1997-04-30 16.3 18.0
1996-04-30 78.4 90.7

 

 

 

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3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

9 in Jan 1985?  I thought it was 7 with a low of -2 lol.  How many times has NYC seen a high of single digits or lower and do you have a breakdown of when it happened and what the min/max were on those days?  Thanks!

heres what I got saved...

NYC's Arctic outbreaks...
Max..Min...dates...snowdepth...

22.....06.....0........0.....0...2/13-14/2016

15......-1.....0........0.....0

35.....13.....0........0.....0

.......................................................................
17.....09.....0........0.....0...1/14-16/2004
18.....02.....0........0.....0
24.....01.....0........0.....0
....................................................................
29.....06...0.06...2.5......3"...1/9-11/2004
15.....01...0.09...3.2......5"
27.....07.....0........0.......4"
........................................................................
42.....32.....T........T........3".....1/25-27/1994
32.....05...0.32...4.5.......7"...
31.....00...0.06...0.1.......7"
.........................................................................
35.....04...0.22...1.0.......5"1/18-20/1994
10......-2.....0........0........5"
15.....00.....0........0........5"
.......................................................................
23.....04...0.02...0.5.......3"....1/20-22/1985
09......-2.....0........0........3"
31.....09.....0........0........3"
..........................................
............................................................................
35.....19.....0........0.....6"  1/16-18/1982
19.....00.....0........0.....5"
15.....00.....0........0.....5"
..........................................................................
37.....20...0.10...1.0.....1"...12/24-26/1980
20......-1.....0........0......T
23.....08.....0........0......T
.............................................................................
13.....04.....0........0......3"...2/17-19/1979
17.....00.....0........0......3"
28.....17...0.85" 12.7" 16"
.............................................................................
26.....07...0.06...0.6.....6"...1/16-18/1977
12......-2.....0........0......6"
13.....02.....0........0......6"
..........................................................................
28.....05.....0........0.......1"...1/22-24/1976
15......-1.....T........T........1"
22.....14.....0........0........1"
.............................................................................
13.....02.....0........0.......3"..1/8-10/1968
14......-1...0.03...0.4......3"
17.....03.....T........T........3"
............................................................................
44.....25.....0........0.....0...2/7-9/1963
25......-2.....0........0.....0
34.....11......T........T.....0
.........................................................................
24.....03.....0........0.....8"...2/1-3/1961
20......-2.....0........0.....8"
28.....07...0.60...6.0...14"
..........................................................................
23.....06.....0........0.....0...1/14-16/1957
12.....00...0.06...2.0....2"
25.....11...0.16...2.9....4"
........................................................................
28.....10...0.30...3.6.....4"..2/2-4/1955
17.....00.....0........0......3"
37.....08.....0........0......3"
........................................................................
24.....04.....0........0.......9"1/30-2/1/1948
20.....00.....0........0.......9"
26.....09.....0........0.......9"
.........................................................................
30.....05.....0........0.......2"..2/14-16/1943
08......-8.....0........0.......2"...
22.....04.....0........0.......1"
..........................................................................
25.....08.....T........T.......1"...12/19-21/1942
08......-4.....0........0.......1"
21......-1.....0........0.......1"
...........................................................................
24......-3.....T.........T.......5".....1/23-25/1936
16.....04.....0.........0.......5"
20.....08.....0.........0.......5"
...........................................................................
18.....02.....0.........0.....11".....1/27-29/1935
25......-1.....0.........0....10"
34.....16.....T.........T.......8"
..........................................................................
21......-7.....0.........0.......3".....2/8-10/1934
08....-15.....0.........0.......3"
26......-2.....0.........0.......3"
..........................................................................
12......-3.....0.........0.......9".....12/29-31/1933
15......-6.....T.........T.......9"
42.....15.....0.........0.......7"
........................................................................
36.....03.....0.........0.......0.....1/25-27/1927
25......-1.....0.........0.......0
44.....22...0.02".....T.......0
.........................................................................
42.....04...0.60"...4.9"...10".....1/27-29/1925
14......-2...0.02"...0.2"...10"
34.....13...0.75"...1.3"...11"
.........................................................................
30.....05...0.04"...0.4".....4".....2/16-18/1922
17......-2.....0.........0......4"
34.....08.....0.........0......4"
........................................................................
26......-1.....0.........0.......3".....1/31-2/2/1920
24......-2.....T.........T.......3"
40.....22.....0.........0.......2"
...........................................................................
21.....01...0.05"...1.8".....2".....12/17-19/1919
11......-1.....0.........0.......2"
20.....10...0.11"...1.9".....3"
...........................................................................
31.....00.....0.........0........6".......2/4-6/1918
04......-6.....0.........0........6"
38.....01.....0.........0........5"
...........................................................................
08......-6.....0.12"...2.0".....3".....12/29-1/4 1917-18
02.....-13......0.........0.......3"
06......-7.......0.........0.......3"
10......-4.......0.........0.......3"
10.....02.......T.........T.......3"
12.....00.......0.........0.......2"
18......-3.......0.........0.......2"
.............................................
23.....08.....0.........0........0......2/11-13/1917
12.....03.....0.........0........0
24.....00.....0.........0........0
............................................
21.....02......T.........T.......T.....2/11-13/1914
10......-3......0........0.......T
26......-1...0.29"....1.6"....2"
...............................................
33.....09......T.........T.......0.....01/12-14/1914
09......-3......0........0.......0
18......-5......0........0.......0
............................................
19.....05....0.35"....3.5"....3".....1/12-14/1912
08......-3......0.........0.......3"
23.....02......0.........0.......2"
.........................................
26.....12......0.........0.......T.....2/9-11/1912
13.....00......0.........0.......T
21......-1......0.........0.......T
..............................................
11......-2.......0........0.....6" est...2/9-13/1899
07......-6.......0........0.....6" est
09......-2.......0........0.....6" est
09.....04.....0.23....5.3...10" est
11.....06.....0.47...10.7...20" est
..............................................
44.....06.....0.02....0.5....T...2/16-18/1896
07......-5........0........0.....T
26.....01........0........0.....T
.....................................................................

18.....06........0........0.....0...1/5-7/1896
12......-2........0........0.....0
25.....06........0........0.....0
...............................................
11.....00........0........0....3" est...2/5-8/1895
10......-4.......0........0....3" est
13.....06.....0.17....2.5..5" est
08.....02.....0.13....2.5..7" est
...............................................
16.....01........0........0.....T est...1/21-23/1888
14.....00........0........0.....T est
24.....07........0........0.....T est
.............................................
12.....00.....0.10....1.0"....4" est...2/4-6/1886
07......-4........0........0......4" est
20.....03.....0.01"....0.2"...4" est
...............................................
16.....07........0........0.....3" est...1/11-13/1886
08.....02........0........0.....2" est
14.....02........0........0.....2" est...
...............................................
16......-1........0........0.....T...12/19-21/1884
07......-3........0........0.....T
36.....07........0........0.....T
...................................................
25.....10........0........0.....6" est...12/22-24/1883
10......-1.....0.01....0.1....6" est
31.....07.....0.80....7.5"..12" est
..............................................
13.....00........0........0.....0-t  est 1/23-25/1882
06......-6........0........0.....0
29.....03.....0.32....0.5....T est...
..........................................
21.....03.....0.10....2.0"est 4" est...2/1-3/1881
09......-3........0........0......3" est
18.....01........0........0......3" est
.......................................
32.....10........0.........0......T est...12/28-1/1/1880-81
10.....04.....0.28....4.0".....4" est
04......-6........0.........0......3" est
10.....03........0.........0......3" est
16.....01........0.........0......2" est
..........................................
33.....03.....0.15"....0.0"....2" est...1/2-4/1879
07......-4........0.........0......2" est
26.....06........0.........0......1" est
..............................................

coldest days on record for KNYC...Max in single digits...

date...............max min mean

12/20/1884.......7...-4...1.5

12/20/1942.......8...-3...2.5

12/29/1917.......8...-6...1.0

12/30/1917.......2.-13..-5.5

12/30/1880.......4...-6..-1.0

12/31/1917.......6...-7..-0.5

01/03/1879.......7...-4...1.5

01/12/1886.......8....2...5.0

01/13/1912.......8...-3...2.5

01/13/1914.......9...-3...3.0

01/21/1985.......9...-2...3.5

01/24/1882.......6...-6...0.0

02/02/1881.......9...-3...3.0

02/05/1918.......4...-6..-1.0

02/05/1886.......7...-4...1.5

02/08/1895.......8....2...5.0

02/09/1934.......8.-15..-3.5

02/10/1899.......7...-6...0.5

02/11/1899.......9...-2...3.5

02/12/1899.......9....4...6.5

02/15/1943.......8...-8...0.0

02/17/1896.......7...-5...1.0

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Very unusual to get a snowy winter with such a tucked in storm track. This is only the 3rd time since 1996 that EWR had near 10” or more of snow than ISP or BNL. I use BNL before 2010 due to missing ISP snowfall data. This winter featured the record south based blocking and record warm SSTs east of New England. So this allowed the ridge to build east of New England with storm tracks very close to Southern NJ. Most other years we had more of a benchmark storm track further east favoring Suffolk over Newark.

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Ending Date
Islip Snowfall 
Newark Snowfall 
2021-04-30 33.5 45.7
2020-04-30 6.8 6.9
2019-04-30 12.8 22.0
2018-04-30 65.9 39.4
2017-04-30 39.3 30.0
2016-04-30 41.4 32.8
2015-04-30 63.7 46.4
2014-04-30 63.7 61.1
2013-04-30 46.9 29.5
2012-04-30 4.7 8.8
2011-04-30 55.3 68.2
2010-04-30 53.8 47.9
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Ending Date
Newark Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30
BNL  LI Snowfall
2009-04-30 27.1 43
2008-04-30 14.6 11.5
2007-04-30 16.5 9.5
2006-04-30 37.9 30.5
2005-04-30 43.4 78.5
2004-04-30 47.8 60.2
2003-04-30 53.1 62.1
2002-04-30 3.6 5.5
2001-04-30 39.3 51.2
2000-04-30 18.4 14.0
1999-04-30 12.8 23.0
1998-04-30 6.9 4.5
1997-04-30 16.3 18.0
1996-04-30 78.4 90.7

 

 

 

Chris, do you think if a duplicate of the Dec 1992 noreaster had happened this season it would have been a big snow event for us?  Because the track was astonishingly similar.

 

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39 minutes ago, uncle W said:

heres what I got saved...

NYC's Arctic outbreaks...
Max..Min...dates...snowdepth...

22.....06.....0........0.....0...2/13-14/2016

15......-1.....0........0.....0

35.....13.....0........0.....0

.......................................................................
17.....09.....0........0.....0...1/14-16/2004
18.....02.....0........0.....0
24.....01.....0........0.....0
....................................................................
29.....06...0.06...2.5......3"...1/9-11/2004
15.....01...0.09...3.2......5"
27.....07.....0........0.......4"
........................................................................
42.....32.....T........T........3".....1/25-27/1994
32.....05...0.32...4.5.......7"...
31.....00...0.06...0.1.......7"
.........................................................................
35.....04...0.22...1.0.......5"1/18-20/1994
10......-2.....0........0........5"
15.....00.....0........0........5"
.......................................................................
23.....04...0.02...0.5.......3"....1/20-22/1985
09......-2.....0........0........3"
31.....09.....0........0........3"
..........................................
............................................................................
35.....19.....0........0.....6"  1/16-18/1982
19.....00.....0........0.....5"
15.....00.....0........0.....5"
..........................................................................
37.....20...0.10...1.0.....1"...12/24-26/1980
20......-1.....0........0......T
23.....08.....0........0......T
.............................................................................
13.....04.....0........0......3"...2/17-19/1979
17.....00.....0........0......3"
28.....17...0.85" 12.7" 16"
.............................................................................
26.....07...0.06...0.6.....6"...1/16-18/1977
12......-2.....0........0......6"
13.....02.....0........0......6"
..........................................................................
28.....05.....0........0.......1"...1/22-24/1976
15......-1.....T........T........1"
22.....14.....0........0........1"
.............................................................................
13.....02.....0........0.......3"..1/8-10/1968
14......-1...0.03...0.4......3"
17.....03.....T........T........3"
............................................................................
44.....25.....0........0.....0...2/7-9/1963
25......-2.....0........0.....0
34.....11......T........T.....0
.........................................................................
24.....03.....0........0.....8"...2/1-3/1961
20......-2.....0........0.....8"
28.....07...0.60...6.0...14"
..........................................................................
23.....06.....0........0.....0...1/14-16/1957
12.....00...0.06...2.0....2"
25.....11...0.16...2.9....4"
........................................................................
28.....10...0.30...3.6.....4"..2/2-4/1955
17.....00.....0........0......3"
37.....08.....0........0......3"
........................................................................
24.....04.....0........0.......9"1/30-2/1/1948
20.....00.....0........0.......9"
26.....09.....0........0.......9"
.........................................................................
30.....05.....0........0.......2"..2/14-16/1943
08......-8.....0........0.......2"...
22.....04.....0........0.......1"
..........................................................................
25.....08.....T........T.......1"...12/19-21/1942
08......-4.....0........0.......1"
21......-1.....0........0.......1"
...........................................................................
24......-3.....T.........T.......5".....1/23-25/1936
16.....04.....0.........0.......5"
20.....08.....0.........0.......5"
...........................................................................
18.....02.....0.........0.....11".....1/27-29/1935
25......-1.....0.........0....10"
34.....16.....T.........T.......8"
..........................................................................
21......-7.....0.........0.......3".....2/8-10/1934
08....-15.....0.........0.......3"
26......-2.....0.........0.......3"
..........................................................................
12......-3.....0.........0.......9".....12/29-31/1933
15......-6.....T.........T.......9"
42.....15.....0.........0.......7"
........................................................................
36.....03.....0.........0.......0.....1/25-27/1927
25......-1.....0.........0.......0
44.....22...0.02".....T.......0
.........................................................................
42.....04...0.60"...4.9"...10".....1/27-29/1925
14......-2...0.02"...0.2"...10"
34.....13...0.75"...1.3"...11"
.........................................................................
30.....05...0.04"...0.4".....4".....2/16-18/1922
17......-2.....0.........0......4"
34.....08.....0.........0......4"
........................................................................
26......-1.....0.........0.......3".....1/31-2/2/1920
24......-2.....T.........T.......3"
40.....22.....0.........0.......2"
...........................................................................
21.....01...0.05"...1.8".....2".....12/17-19/1919
11......-1.....0.........0.......2"
20.....10...0.11"...1.9".....3"
...........................................................................
31.....00.....0.........0........6".......2/4-6/1918
04......-6.....0.........0........6"
38.....01.....0.........0........5"
...........................................................................
08......-6.....0.12"...2.0".....3".....12/29-1/4 1917-18
02.....-13......0.........0.......3"
06......-7.......0.........0.......3"
10......-4.......0.........0.......3"
10.....02.......T.........T.......3"
12.....00.......0.........0.......2"
18......-3.......0.........0.......2"
.............................................
23.....08.....0.........0........0......2/11-13/1917
12.....03.....0.........0........0
24.....00.....0.........0........0
............................................
21.....02......T.........T.......T.....2/11-13/1914
10......-3......0........0.......T
26......-1...0.29"....1.6"....2"
...............................................
33.....09......T.........T.......0.....01/12-14/1914
09......-3......0........0.......0
18......-5......0........0.......0
............................................
19.....05....0.35"....3.5"....3".....1/12-14/1912
08......-3......0.........0.......3"
23.....02......0.........0.......2"
.........................................
26.....12......0.........0.......T.....2/9-11/1912
13.....00......0.........0.......T
21......-1......0.........0.......T
..............................................
11......-2.......0........0.....6" est...2/9-13/1899
07......-6.......0........0.....6" est
09......-2.......0........0.....6" est
09.....04.....0.23....5.3...10" est
11.....06.....0.47...10.7...20" est
..............................................
44.....06.....0.02....0.5....T...2/16-18/1896
07......-5........0........0.....T
26.....01........0........0.....T
.....................................................................

18.....06........0........0.....0...1/5-7/1896
12......-2........0........0.....0
25.....06........0........0.....0
...............................................
11.....00........0........0....3" est...2/5-8/1895
10......-4.......0........0....3" est
13.....06.....0.17....2.5..5" est
08.....02.....0.13....2.5..7" est
...............................................
16.....01........0........0.....T est...1/21-23/1888
14.....00........0........0.....T est
24.....07........0........0.....T est
.............................................
12.....00.....0.10....1.0"....4" est...2/4-6/1886
07......-4........0........0......4" est
20.....03.....0.01"....0.2"...4" est
...............................................
16.....07........0........0.....3" est...1/11-13/1886
08.....02........0........0.....2" est
14.....02........0........0.....2" est...
...............................................
16......-1........0........0.....T...12/19-21/1884
07......-3........0........0.....T
36.....07........0........0.....T
...................................................
25.....10........0........0.....6" est...12/22-24/1883
10......-1.....0.01....0.1....6" est
31.....07.....0.80....7.5"..12" est
..............................................
13.....00........0........0.....0-t  est 1/23-25/1882
06......-6........0........0.....0
29.....03.....0.32....0.5....T est...
..........................................
21.....03.....0.10....2.0"est 4" est...2/1-3/1881
09......-3........0........0......3" est
18.....01........0........0......3" est
.......................................
32.....10........0.........0......T est...12/28-1/1/1880-81
10.....04.....0.28....4.0".....4" est
04......-6........0.........0......3" est
10.....03........0.........0......3" est
16.....01........0.........0......2" est
..........................................
33.....03.....0.15"....0.0"....2" est...1/2-4/1879
07......-4........0.........0......2" est
26.....06........0.........0......1" est
..............................................

coldest days on record for KNYC...Max in single digits...

date...............max min mean

12/20/1884.......7...-4...1.5

12/20/1942.......8...-3...2.5

12/29/1917.......8...-6...1.0

12/30/1917.......2.-13..-5.5

12/30/1880.......4...-6..-1.0

12/31/1917.......6...-7..-0.5

01/03/1879.......7...-4...1.5

01/12/1886.......8....2...5.0

01/13/1912.......8...-3...2.5

01/13/1914.......9...-3...3.0

01/21/1985.......9...-2...3.5

01/24/1882.......6...-6...0.0

02/02/1881.......9...-3...3.0

02/05/1918.......4...-6..-1.0

02/05/1886.......7...-4...1.5

02/08/1895.......8....2...5.0

02/09/1934.......8.-15..-3.5

02/10/1899.......7...-6...0.5

02/11/1899.......9...-2...3.5

02/12/1899.......9....4...6.5

02/15/1943.......8...-8...0.0

02/17/1896.......7...-5...1.0

wow thanks that 12/30/1917 day impresses me a lot more than 2/9/1934!  We were that close to staying below zero all day!

Do you have any snowfall measurements listed for the days of any of these extreme outbreaks?  Maybe one of these recorded the coldest temperature in NYC with snow falling?

 

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4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Chris, do you think if a duplicate of the Dec 1992 noreaster had happened this season it would have been a big snow event for us?  Because the track was astonishingly similar.

 

Probably not since the easterly flow was so strong with that event.

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6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

wow thanks that 12/30/1917 day impresses me a lot more than 2/9/1934!  We were that close to staying below zero all day!

Do you have any snowfall measurements listed for the days of any of these extreme outbreaks?  Maybe one of these recorded the coldest temperature in NYC with snow falling?

 

wow one of those days I think it was 1/4/1918  two inches of snow fell and the split was 8/-6 lmao.....2 inches of snow with 0.12" liquid, I'd think the ratios should have been like 100:1  Impressive that season had multiple arctic outbreaks with temps lower than -5 and one of them had 3 straight days with highs in the single digits and lows -6 or colder.

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

so actually these storms being weaker played in our favor

Yeah, this is our first snowy winter in a while when the heaviest snowstorms only had 990s mb pressures. Our last snowy winter in 17-18 featured the 950mb benchmark blizzard and other deep lows in March. Even 16-17 which was so warm , had the deeper MLSP blizzards mixed in. 

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8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, this is our first snowy winter in a while when the heaviest snowstorms only had 990s mb pressures. Our last snowy winter in 17-18 featured the 950mb benchmark blizzard and other deep lows in March. Even 16-17 which was so warm , had the deeper MLSP blizzards mixed in. 

Aside from the lack of extreme cold here, this winter has some storm track and storm strength similarities to 93-94, and precip type variability like that season too.  I'd say this winter was a weird mix of 93-94 and 06-07.  Both of those winters had snow or sleet events in March, so I'd say there is some hope for us to get to 40" even at JFK.  One 6" event will do it.  I dont think we'll get an April event this year as this is a 11 yr hot summer cycle and these usually start heating up in April but I wouldn't be shocked if we ended up with a 4-8 inch snowfall at any point in March.

Wait 1977 had the May snow and was part of the 11 yr hot summer cycle so I guess anything's possible (even though that summer wasn't really hot, it had an extreme 2 week stretch when it hit 104 in late July, our 2nd hottest NYC temp on record, later tied in late July 2011.)

 

 

 

 

 

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13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Aside from the lack of extreme cold here, this winter has some storm track and storm strength similarities to 93-94, and precip type variability like that season too.  I'd say this winter was a weird mix of 93-94 and 06-07.  Both of those winters had snow or sleet events in March, so I'd say there is some hope for us to get to 40" even at JFK.  One 6" event will do it.  I dont think we'll get an April event this year as this is a 11 yr hot summer cycle and these usually start heating up in April but I wouldn't be shocked if we ended up with a 4-8 inch snowfall at any point in March.

Wait 1977 had the May snow and was part of the 11 yr hot summer cycle so I guess anything's possible (even though that summer wasn't really hot, it had an extreme 2 week stretch when it hit 104 in late July, our 2nd hottest NYC temp on record, later tied in late July 2011.)

 

 

 

 

 

This was a really unusual winter with the strong blocking displaced so far south. You can see how much warmer the US average temperature was than the 09-10 winter which was the last time we had a -1 or lower AO for all 3 winter months. So that resulted in the more tucked in storm track with the ridging and record warm SSTs east of New England.

B4805648-56EB-49C0-919B-265D66D1DAE6.thumb.png.4309cc855ef726081756fcebd3c1b9c2.png

38341C80-0225-453C-8408-DA1DA6D15232.png.a1afaffc1bac0d5f303cbaefca3f3d83.png

 

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