LibertyBell Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 7 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Under bright sunshine, much of the region basked in the balmy warmth of an early spring preview. Select high temperatures included: Allentown: 51° Atlantic City: 56° Baltimore: 63° Binghamton: 48° Bridgeport: 50° Harrisburg: 57° Islip: 50° New York City-JFK: 49° New York City-LGA: 53° New York City-NYC: 54° Newark: 53° Philadelphia: 56° Poughkeepsie: 52° Scranton: 54° Sterling, VA: 66° Washington, DC: 60° Wilmington, DE: 56° Somewhat cooler air will return to the region for tomorrow and Friday. Overall, temperatures will likely remain generally above normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas into the first week of March and possibly beyond that, as ensemble support for a prolonged positive AO regime has increased further. There could be some short-lived shots of cooler air. The MJO is forecast to reside predominantly in Phases 5-7 during the first 10 days of March in combination with an AO of generally +1.000 or above. During the 1991-2020 period, such a combination yielded temperatures that averaged 2.9° above normal in New York City and 1.7° above normal in Philadelphia. Broader statistical guidance based on the state of the ENSO and forecast teleconnections implies that the first half of March could wind up generally 1°-3° above normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. The latest dynamical guidance is consistent with those broader statistical temperature anomalies. During the 1991-2020 base period, the March 1-10 temperature has averaged 39.7° in New York City and 40.9° in Philadelphia. Measurable snow fell on 10% of days for both cities. During cases when the AO was +1.000 or above and the PNA was negative, the state of the SOI often made the difference between a colder/snowier or warmer/less snowy outcome. When the SOI was negative, the mean temperature in New York City was 39.5° and it was 39.6° in Philadelphia. Measurable snow fell on 20% of days in New York City and 17% of days in Philadelphia (well above the climatological frequency). When the SOI was positive, the mean temperature in New York City was 41.6° and it was 42.3° in Philadelphia. In such cases, measurable snow was observed on 13% of days in both cities. In sum, if this data holds up, even as a milder regime settles in, there could be some chance of a measurable snow event during the first 10 days of March in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Interior sections would likely be favored for measurable snow, as would central and upstate New York and New England. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around February 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.93°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through mid-March. The SOI was -3.46 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.628 today. That is the AO's highest value since the AO was +2.181 on November 26, 2020. On February 23 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 0.872 (RMM). The February 22-adjusted amplitude was 0.819. Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely into the first week of March. The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Since January 1, New York City has picked up 28.1" snow. Winters that saw December receive 10" or more snow, less than 10" in January, and then 10" or more in February in New York City, saw measurable snowfall in March or April in 83% of cases. Winter 2009-2010 was the exception where only a trace of snow was recorded. This group of winters saw 6" or more snow during the March-April period in 50% of the cases. All said, it is more likely than not that there will be measurable snowfall after February. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal February. February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 33.6° (1.7° below normal). looks like the projected mean temp for February keeps increasing...and JFK still hasn't hit 50 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 11 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: The streak barely survived with a low of 39°. and JFK still hasn't hit 50 this year. Both streaks survived. JFK also has a below 40 streak going doesn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 10 hours ago, sferic said: It's not over it took a vacation for a few weeks, we'll have more WSW's count on it It’s over. A vacation for a few weeks at the end of February brings you mid March. Just running out the clock at this point. Beyond that, it’s wet slop and a note in record book. 39F at 6 am. Well above my forecasted low. High was 54F yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 2 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: It’s over. A vacation for a few weeks at the end of February brings you mid March. Just running out the clock at this point. Beyond that, it’s wet slop and a note in record book. 39F at 6 am. Well above my forecasted low. High was 54F yesterday. where did this damn wind come from? it feels like the middle of winter right now. I heard a tv met say "it isn't the temperature that matters, it's what it feels like which matters, so dont even look at the temperature" lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: where did this damn wind come from? it feels like the middle of winter right now. I heard a tv met say "it isn't the temperature that matters, it's what it feels like which matters, so dont even look at the temperature" lol Cold Front swung thru. NW wind at 12 kts gusting to 30 throughout region Temps wont move much today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 Looks like we have a chance at our first January and February that could stay below 55° since 2003. Models have highs in the low 50s on Saturday. So warm ups remain tame by recent standards. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Highest Max Temperature Jan 1 to Feb 28 Missing Count 2021-02-28 54 4 2020-02-29 69 0 2019-02-28 65 0 2018-02-28 78 0 2017-02-28 70 0 2016-02-29 61 0 2015-02-28 56 0 2014-02-28 58 0 2013-02-28 61 0 2012-02-29 62 0 2011-02-28 67 0 2010-02-28 57 0 2009-02-28 65 0 2008-02-29 68 0 2007-02-28 72 0 2006-02-28 64 0 2005-02-28 66 0 2004-02-29 59 0 2003-02-28 50 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Highest Max Temperature Jan 1 to Feb 28 Missing Count 2021-02-28 54 4 2020-02-29 70 0 2019-02-28 68 0 2018-02-28 80 0 2017-02-28 74 0 2016-02-29 65 0 2015-02-28 56 0 2014-02-28 61 0 2013-02-28 66 0 2012-02-29 64 0 2011-02-28 71 0 2010-02-28 59 0 2009-02-28 66 0 2008-02-29 69 0 2007-02-28 72 0 2006-02-28 63 0 2005-02-28 67 0 2004-02-29 62 0 2003-02-28 52 0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 9 minutes ago, bluewave said: Looks like we have a chance at our first January and February that could stay below 55° since 2003. Models have highs in the low 50s on Saturday. So warm ups remain tame by recent standards. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Highest Max Temperature Jan 1 to Feb 28 Missing Count 2021-02-28 54 4 2020-02-29 69 0 2019-02-28 65 0 2018-02-28 78 0 2017-02-28 70 0 2016-02-29 61 0 2015-02-28 56 0 2014-02-28 58 0 2013-02-28 61 0 2012-02-29 62 0 2011-02-28 67 0 2010-02-28 57 0 2009-02-28 65 0 2008-02-29 68 0 2007-02-28 72 0 2006-02-28 64 0 2005-02-28 66 0 2004-02-29 59 0 2003-02-28 50 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Highest Max Temperature Jan 1 to Feb 28 Missing Count 2021-02-28 54 4 2020-02-29 70 0 2019-02-28 68 0 2018-02-28 80 0 2017-02-28 74 0 2016-02-29 65 0 2015-02-28 56 0 2014-02-28 61 0 2013-02-28 66 0 2012-02-29 64 0 2011-02-28 71 0 2010-02-28 59 0 2009-02-28 66 0 2008-02-29 69 0 2007-02-28 72 0 2006-02-28 63 0 2005-02-28 67 0 2004-02-29 62 0 2003-02-28 52 0 Chris when was the last time JFK didn't have a Jan/Feb that hit 50 for a high or 40 for a low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 The last 4 days of February are averaging 39degs (34/44), or about +1.0. Month to date is 32.7[-2.1]. February should end at 33.6[-1.6]. No snows to talk about. The first 10 days of March are much lower than a few days ago now, 38(31/45), or -1.0. I reached only 48* yesterday and note the City was 54*. 45*(45%RH) at 6am. Down to 41* at 7am. Was 48* back at 3:30am. 43* by Noon. 48* by 3pm. 50* by 4pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Chris when was the last time JFK didn't have a Jan/Feb that hit 50 for a high or 40 for a low? JFK snuck in a 53° back on January 2nd. So that is still the high for January and February. This is the first 60+ day streak with a low under 40 since the last one ended in March 2019. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 26 minutes ago, bluewave said: JFK snuck in a 53° back on January 2nd. So that is still the high for January and February. This is the first 60+ day streak with a low under 40 since the last one ended in March 2019. Looks like we can set a record for the under 40 low streak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 never got below freezing here last night. Been awhile for something like that.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 Temp shot up to 48 overnight, might hold as today’s high. Low was 40, it’s currently 42. Yesterday’s high was 53. Snowpack is almost fully annihilated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 Morning thoughts... Following yesterday’s spring preview and a predawn high temperature of 50° in Central Park, today will be partly to mostly sunny and cooler. Temperatures will likely top out mainly in the middle 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 46° Newark: 46° Philadelphia: 47° Tomorrow will be mostly sunny with temperatures again reaching the middle 40s. Most of the remainder of February will likely see temperatures average somewhat above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 6 hours ago, LibertyBell said: so a good chance we reach number 1 on this streak? No. It won’t even come close. There were 100+ day streaks in the past. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 31 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Looks like we can set a record for the under 40 low streak JFK is at 62 days so far. The record is 113 days with a low under 40 set during 00-01. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 6 hours ago, LibertyBell said: looks like the projected mean temp for February keeps increasing...and JFK still hasn't hit 50 lol The sea breeze has helped keep JFK cooler. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 1 minute ago, bluewave said: JFK had a low of 40° so far today. If they can hold it, then yesterday would be day 62. The record is 113 days with a low under 40 set during 00-01. JFK should drop below 40 this evening. Sunday could be a challenge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: JFK should drop below 40 this evening. Sunday could be a challenge. Yeah, temperatures look to drop back into the 30s this evening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 1 hour ago, bluewave said: JFK is at 62 days so far. The record is 113 days with a low under 40 set during 00-01. wow thats crazy, we didnt even have that much snow back then, it was above average but not by much 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: wow thats crazy, we didnt even have that much snow back then, it was above average but not by much One of the more unusual weather records this month was how rapidly the AO rose from below -5 to over +2 today. I think this is why the models backed off their snowier forecasts that they had for mid to late February. The last 3 Februaries that went below -5 were 2010, 1978, and 1969. The AO didn’t reach +2 during 2010 until November. The AO made it to +2 in mid-March 1978. It also took longer in 1969 to get back to plus +2 in late October. https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.ao.index.b500101.current.ascii 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: One of the more unusual weather records this month was how rapidly the AO rose from below -5 to over +2 today. I think this is why the models backed off their snowier forecasts that they had for mid to late February. The last 3 Februaries that went below -5 were 2010, 1978, and 1969. The AO didn’t reach +2 during 2010 until November. The AO made it to +2 in mid-March 1978. It also took longer in 1969 to get back to plus +2 in late October. https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.ao.index.b500101.current.ascii was this all because of the MJO or did we have some sort of black swan event no one could have predicted? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: was this all because of the MJO or did we have some sort of black swan event no one could have predicted? That’s a good question. The MJO data goes back to the 1970s. February 2010 had the MJO 7 going more quickly into phase 8. The MJO also went fairly quickly into a phase 8 in 1978. This year the MJO has been stuck in 6-7 for more than a month. But we have seen bigger AO swings in recent years. We also have the warmer WAPAC SSTs favoring longer and more amplified phases 4-7. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 46 minutes ago, bluewave said: That’s a good question. The MJO data goes back to the 1970s. February 2010 had the MJO 7 going more quickly into phase 8. The MJO also went fairly quickly into a phase 8 in 1978. This year the MJO has been stuck in 6-7 for more than a month. But we have seen bigger AO swings in recent years. We also have the warmer WAPAC SSTs favoring longer and more amplified phases 4-7. so it sounds like a dual enhancement effect where the two (warmer SST and more stalling of the MJO) fed off each other which has resulted in less Phase 8s and more extremes. Fits right in with climate modeling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 3 hours ago, LibertyBell said: so it sounds like a dual enhancement effect where the two (warmer SST and more stalling of the MJO) fed off each other which has resulted in less Phase 8s and more extremes. Fits right in with climate modeling. Yeah, the strong blocking pattern this winter was the dominant factor for us. But you can see how the unfavorable MJO phases pretty much ran the table during the 18-19 and 19-20 winters.The pattern was more split between the unfavorable MJO and blocking during 15-16, 16-17, and 17-18 winters. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 1956 had a similar AO shift in late February but got negative again on 3/17...just in time for two snowstorms... 1956 2 1 0.050 1956 2 2 -0.210 1956 2 3 -0.904 1956 2 4 -1.606 1956 2 5 -1.206 1956 2 6 -1.260 1956 2 7 -2.267 1956 2 8 -2.174 1956 2 9 -2.722 1956 2 10 -3.624 1956 2 11 -3.660 1956 2 12 -3.444 1956 2 13 -4.092 1956 2 14 -4.552 1956 2 15 -4.564 1956 2 16 -3.793 1956 2 17 -3.450 1956 2 18 -3.655 1956 2 19 -3.702 1956 2 20 -3.792 1956 2 21 -3.627 1956 2 22 -2.998 1956 2 23 -1.752 1956 2 24 -0.916 1956 2 25 -0.129 1956 2 26 0.484 1956 2 27 1.265 1956 2 28 2.334 1956 2 29 3.227 1956 3 1 4.445 1956 3 2 4.692 1956 3 3 3.630 1956 3 4 2.014 1956 3 5 0.764 1956 3 6 0.652 1956 3 7 1.060 1956 3 8 1.336 1956 3 9 0.682 1956 3 10 0.588 1956 3 11 1.374 1956 3 12 1.490 1956 3 13 1.033 1956 3 14 0.755 1956 3 15 0.286 1956 3 16 0.062 1956 3 17 -0.288 1956 3 18 -0.259 1956 3 19 -0.010 1956 3 20 -0.006 1956 3 21 -0.496 1956 3 22 -0.783 1956 3 23 -1.002 1956 3 24 -1.116 1956 3 25 -1.385 1956 3 26 -1.444 1956 3 27 -0.810 1956 3 28 -0.839 1956 3 29 -1.020 1956 3 30 -0.648 1956 3 31 -0.696 1956 4 1 -0.638 1956 4 2 -0.121 1956 4 3 0.063 1956 4 4 0.006 1956 4 5 -0.530 1956 4 6 -1.337 1956 4 7 -1.806 1956 4 8 -1.871 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 Tomorrow will be another sunny day with temperatures reaching the lower and middle 40s across the region. Overall, temperatures will likely remain generally above normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas into the first week of March and possibly beyond that. There could be some short-lived shots of cooler air. However, some of the guidance has moved toward a cooler opening to March, so uncertainty has increased concerning the first week of March. The MJO is forecast to reside predominantly in Phases 5-7 during the first 10 days of March in combination with an AO of generally +1.000 or above. During the 1991-2020 period, such a combination yielded temperatures that averaged 2.9° above normal in New York City and 1.7° above normal in Philadelphia. Broader statistical guidance based on the state of the ENSO and forecast teleconnections implies that the first half of March could wind up generally 1°-3° above normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. The latest dynamical guidance is consistent with those broader statistical temperature anomalies for the first half of March. During the 1991-2020 base period, the March 1-10 temperature has averaged 39.7° in New York City and 40.9° in Philadelphia. Measurable snow fell on 10% of days for both cities. During cases when the AO was +1.000 or above and the PNA was negative, the state of the SOI often made the difference between a colder/snowier or warmer/less snowy outcome. When the SOI was negative, the mean temperature in New York City was 39.5° and it was 39.6° in Philadelphia. Measurable snow fell on 20% of days in New York City and 17% of days in Philadelphia (well above the climatological frequency). When the SOI was positive, the mean temperature in New York City was 41.6° and it was 42.3° in Philadelphia. In such cases, measurable snow was observed on 13% of days in both cities. In sum, if this data holds up, even as a milder regime settles in, there could be some chance of a measurable snow event during the first 10 days of March in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Interior sections would likely be favored for measurable snow, as would central and upstate New York and New England. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around February 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.93°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through mid-March. The SOI was -14.79 today. That is the lowest SOI figure since July 31, 2020 when the SOI was -16.01. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.324 today. That is the highest AO value since November 22, 2020 when the AO was +2.583. On February 24 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.105 (RMM). The February 23-adjusted amplitude was 0.886. Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely into the first week of March. The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Since January 1, New York City has picked up 28.1" snow. Winters that saw December receive 10" or more snow, less than 10" in January, and then 10" or more in February in New York City, saw measurable snowfall in March or April in 83% of cases. Winter 2009-2010 was the exception where only a trace of snow was recorded. This group of winters saw 6" or more snow during the March-April period in 50% of the cases. All said, it is more likely than not that there will be measurable snowfall after February. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal February. February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 33.7° (1.6° below normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 The last 3 days of February are averaging 39degs.(34/43), or +1.0. Month to date is 33.2[-1.7]. February should end at 33.8[-1.5]. First 10 days of March are averaging 46degs.(39/53), or +6.0, including our first 70 on the 10th. No snow to talk about. 37*(40%RH) here at 6am. 36* at 7am. 38* by 9am. 40* at 10am. Still 40* at Noon, but was 41* at 10:30am. 43* by 2pm. 42* at 3pm. 39* by 6pm. 40* by 9pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 Morning thoughts... Today will be partly to mostly sunny and cooler. Temperatures will likely top out mainly in the middle 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 46° Newark: 46° Philadelphia: 48° Periods of light rain are likely tomorrow. Precipitation totals will generally come to 0.25”-0.50”. A little frozen precipitation is possible at the start far north and west of New York City. Upstate New York and northern New England will likely see an all snow event. It will also turn milder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 When is the last year NYC metro had significant snow on the ground the entire month of February ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 13 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: When is the last year NYC metro had significant snow on the ground the entire month of February ? Both February 2014 and February 2015 had snow cover of 1” or more on every day. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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