LibertyBell Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 8 hours ago, nycwinter said: not of the spring has temps in the 80;s and 90;s if it is a chilly spring i will enjoy that knowing hot humid summer is right around the corner.. cloudy and rainy is not my idea of a good time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 A front moved across the region earlier today. Parts of the region saw a period of moderate to heavy snow. In many places, the snow changed to rain before ending. East of New York City, mainly or wholly rain fell. Milder conditions now lie ahead. Tomorrow will likely see the temperature top out in the lower and middle 40s. There could still be a snow flurry or some snow showers early in the day. Parts of the area could reach or exceed 50° on Wednesday before somewhat cooler air returns. Overall, a period of warmer than normal temperatures is likely in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas into the first week of March and possibly beyond that. There could be some short-lived shots of cooler air. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around February 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.93°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through mid-March. The SOI was +18.25 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.041 today. On February 21 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.083 (RMM). The February 20-adjusted amplitude was 1.204. Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely into the first week of March. The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Since January 1, New York City has picked up 28.1" snow. Winters that saw December receive 10" or more snow, less than 10" in January, and then 10" or more in February in New York City, saw measurable snowfall in March or April in 83% of cases. Winter 2009-2010 was the exception where only a trace of snow was recorded. This group of winters saw 6" or more snow during the March-April period in 50% of the cases. All said, it is more likely than not that there will be measurable snowfall after February. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal February. February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 33.0° (2.3° below normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 4 hours ago, uncle W said: looking at the ao forecast its going to stay positive for a while...1974 had a negative ao value but not as great as this year was...Feb 1974 went negative to positive around the 21st and stayed there for two weeks or so...March 74 saw the ao go negative again by mid March...there was a late season snowfall in late March 74 and a little snow and cold in April...If the ao remains positive throughout March it probably will end up as one of the warmest...at this point with twice as much snow as 1973-74 bring on the warmth... I think we'll get to 40" even in a mild pattern another 2" wouldn't be that rare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said: A front moved across the region earlier today. Parts of the region saw a period of moderate to heavy snow. In many places, the snow changed to rain before ending. East of New York City, mainly or wholly rain fell. Milder conditions now lie ahead. Tomorrow will likely see the temperature top out in the lower and middle 40s. There could still be a snow flurry or some snow showers early in the day. Parts of the area could reach or exceed 50° on Wednesday before somewhat cooler air returns. Overall, a period of warmer than normal temperatures is likely in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas into the first week of March and possibly beyond that. There could be some short-lived shots of cooler air. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around February 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.93°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through mid-March. The SOI was +18.25 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.454 today. On February 21 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.083 (RMM). The February 20-adjusted amplitude was 1.204. Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely into the first week of March. The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Since January 1, New York City has picked up 28.1" snow. Winters that saw December receive 10" or more snow, less than 10" in January, and then 10" or more in February in New York City, saw measurable snowfall in March or April in 83% of cases. Winter 2009-2010 was the exception where only a trace of snow was recorded. This group of winters saw 6" or more snow during the March-April period in 50% of the cases. All said, it is more likely than not that there will be measurable snowfall after February. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal February. February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 33.0° (2.3° below normal). Don in SW Nassau we had a moderate snow for a few hours and it stuck to everything. It was a nice surprise- it actually started as rain at 10:45 and changed to snow at 11:15 and snowed through about 1 PM and was accumulating on all surfaces Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 People in Brooklyn and Manhattan reported seeing a nice rainbow near sunset 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Don in SW Nassau we had a moderate snow for a few hours and it stuck to everything. It was a nice surprise- it actually started as rain at 10:45 and changed to snow at 11:15 and snowed through about 1 PM and was accumulating on all surfaces I was not aware of that. Interestingly, there were no snow accumulation reports from Nassau County. Also, the local storm report for EWR showed 2.1" but the daily climate report shows 1.2". There's a transposition error on one of these reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 16 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: People in Brooklyn and Manhattan reported seeing a nice rainbow near sunset I'm not surprised. There was no rainbow here, but the sky turned a reddish hue while a light rain continued to fall. Had the sun broken through, there would likely have been a rainbow up here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 9 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: I was not aware of that. Interestingly, there were no snow accumulation reports from Nassau County. Also, the local storm report for EWR showed 2.1" but the daily climate report shows 1.2". There's a transposition error on one of these reports. I saw on the ptype radar there was a bubble of white that extended into Nassau County and the temp was at 32 so it was sticking to most surfaces. I didn't think much of it as I usually dont take pictures unless there's going to be at least 4 inches of snow. This JFK report says "wintry mix" but I can assure you it was all snow and rather large flakes here in this timeframe with temps right around 32, there was a nice covering on all surfaces until it changed back to rain at 1 PM https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KJFK 11:24 AM 36 F 31 F 82 % SW 24 mph 29 mph 30.10 in 0.0 in Wintry Mix / Windy 11:29 AM 36 F 31 F 82 % SSW 23 mph 0 mph 30.09 in 0.0 in Wintry Mix / Windy 11:51 AM 35 F 31 F 85 % SSW 18 mph 0 mph 30.07 in 0.0 in Wintry Mix 11:56 AM 35 F 31 F 85 % SSW 15 mph 0 mph 30.06 in 0.0 in Wintry Mix 12:04 PM 34 F 31 F 89 % SSW 14 mph 0 mph 30.05 in 0.0 in Light Snow 12:39 PM 33 F 32 F 96 % S 3 mph 0 mph 30.00 in 0.1 in Light Snow 12:51 PM 33 F 33 F 100 % CALM 0 mph 0 mph 29.97 in 0.1 in Wintry Mix 12:56 PM 33 F 31 F 92 % NNE 3 mph 0 mph 29.96 in 0.0 in Wintry Mix 1:41 PM 33 F 31 F 92 % NE 10 mph 0 mph 29.88 in 0.1 in Rain 11:24 AM 36 F 31 F 82 % SW 24 mph 29 mph 30.10 in 0.0 in Wintry Mix / Windy 11:29 AM 36 F 31 F 82 % SSW 23 mph 0 mph 30.09 in 0.0 in Wintry Mix / Windy 11:51 AM 35 F 31 F 85 % SSW 18 mph 0 mph 30.07 in 0.0 in Wintry Mix 11:56 AM 35 F 31 F 85 % SSW 15 mph 0 mph 30.06 in 0.0 in Wintry Mix 12:04 PM 34 F 31 F 89 % SSW 14 mph 0 mph 30.05 in 0.0 in Light Snow 12:39 PM 33 F 32 F 96 % S 3 mph 0 mph 30.00 in 0.1 in Light Snow 12:51 PM 33 F 33 F 100 % CALM 0 mph 0 mph 29.97 in 0.1 in Wintry Mix 12:56 PM 33 F 31 F 92 % NNE 3 mph 0 mph 29.96 in 0.0 in Wintry Mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 Does the above mean that JFK recorded 0.2" snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 9 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: I'm not surprised. There was no rainbow here, but the sky turned a reddish hue while a light rain continued to fall. Had the sun broken through, there would likely have been a rainbow up here. I remember when this has happened as snow was ending and we got pink snow! First time I saw this was in Jan 2004 when snowfall was ending around sunrise and the second time was near sunset when snow was ending in Feb 2009 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 24 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I think we'll get to 40" even in a mild pattern another 2" wouldn't be that rare it looks like NYC will fall short of 30" in 30 days...as of today Newark NJ has 32.8" since 1/31... 30" in 30 days... .......Newark... .....2/13-3/14, 1914.....32.5" .....12/26-1/24/48.......42.1" .....1/15-2/13, 1961......44.8" ....1/16-2/14, 1978.....44.9" ......2/8-3/9, 1994........28.6"**est...suspect 2/11/94 totals...official total 38.6"...snow depth don't add up... ....12/14/95-1/12/96...42.7" ....1/20-2/18, 2003.....30.7" ....1/28-2/26, 2010......34.0" ..12/26-1/24, 2011.....42.1" ...1/21-2/19, 2014.......41.7" ...1/17-2/15, 2016.......30.9" ...1/26-2/24, 2021.......33.3"...as of 2/22 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 Just now, uncle W said: it looks like NYC will fall short of 30" in 30 days...as of today Newark NJ has 32.8" since 1/31... 30" in 30 days... .......Newark... .....2/13-3/14, 1914.....32.5" .....12/26-1/24/48.......42.1" .....1/15-2/13, 1961......44.8" ....1/16-2/14, 1978.....44.9" ......2/8-3/9, 1994........28.6"**est...suspect 2/11/94 totals...official total 38.6"...snow depth don't add up... ....12/14/95-1/12/96...42.7" ....1/20-2/18, 2003.....30.7" ....1/28-2/26, 2010......34.0" ..12/26-1/24, 2011.....42.1" ...1/21-2/19, 2014.......41.7" ...1/17-2/15, 2016.......30.9" ...1/26-2/24, 2021.......33.3"...as of 2/22 If NYC had done a little better with the last 2 storms they would've gotten there. They had around 4-4.5 in each while just east of there had 6-7 in both of them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: If NYC had done a little better with the last 2 storms they would've gotten there. They had around 4-4.5 in each while just east of there had 6-7 in both of them. NYC needs 2.0" by March 1st for 30"...I guess its possible if they measure right...it looks like the last two small events were under measured...again... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 31 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I saw on the ptype radar there was a bubble of white that extended into Nassau County and the temp was at 32 so it was sticking to most surfaces. I didn't think much of it as I usually dont take pictures unless there's going to be at least 4 inches of snow. This JFK report says "wintry mix" but I can assure you it was all snow and rather large flakes here in this timeframe with temps right around 32, there was a nice covering on all surfaces until it changed back to rain at 1 PM https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KJFK 11:24 AM 36 F 31 F 82 % SW 24 mph 29 mph 30.10 in 0.0 in Wintry Mix / Windy 11:29 AM 36 F 31 F 82 % SSW 23 mph 0 mph 30.09 in 0.0 in Wintry Mix / Windy 11:51 AM 35 F 31 F 85 % SSW 18 mph 0 mph 30.07 in 0.0 in Wintry Mix 11:56 AM 35 F 31 F 85 % SSW 15 mph 0 mph 30.06 in 0.0 in Wintry Mix 12:04 PM 34 F 31 F 89 % SSW 14 mph 0 mph 30.05 in 0.0 in Light Snow 12:39 PM 33 F 32 F 96 % S 3 mph 0 mph 30.00 in 0.1 in Light Snow 12:51 PM 33 F 33 F 100 % CALM 0 mph 0 mph 29.97 in 0.1 in Wintry Mix 12:56 PM 33 F 31 F 92 % NNE 3 mph 0 mph 29.96 in 0.0 in Wintry Mix 1:41 PM 33 F 31 F 92 % NE 10 mph 0 mph 29.88 in 0.1 in Rain 11:24 AM 36 F 31 F 82 % SW 24 mph 29 mph 30.10 in 0.0 in Wintry Mix / Windy 11:29 AM 36 F 31 F 82 % SSW 23 mph 0 mph 30.09 in 0.0 in Wintry Mix / Windy 11:51 AM 35 F 31 F 85 % SSW 18 mph 0 mph 30.07 in 0.0 in Wintry Mix 11:56 AM 35 F 31 F 85 % SSW 15 mph 0 mph 30.06 in 0.0 in Wintry Mix 12:04 PM 34 F 31 F 89 % SSW 14 mph 0 mph 30.05 in 0.0 in Light Snow 12:39 PM 33 F 32 F 96 % S 3 mph 0 mph 30.00 in 0.1 in Light Snow 12:51 PM 33 F 33 F 100 % CALM 0 mph 0 mph 29.97 in 0.1 in Wintry Mix 12:56 PM 33 F 31 F 92 % NNE 3 mph 0 mph 29.96 in 0.0 in Wintry Mix JFK reported 0.4”, LGA: 0.6”, and NYC: 0.4” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 11 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: JFK reported 0.4”, LGA: 0.6”, and NYC: 0.4” that sounds about right for what I had 5 miles from JFK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 4.8 today. Total snow depth 19-20 inches 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 Snowfall here past 23 days totaled 32.8".... Season total at 42.6". 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, rgwp96 said: 4.8 today. Total snow depth 19-20 inches Time to start saying goodbye to the pack. Big melts rest of this week. I suspect we'll be reduced to piles by March 1st though your area should hold a bit holder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 Just now, SnoSki14 said: Time to start saying goodbye to the pack. Big melts rest of this week. I suspect we'll be reduced to piles by March 1st though your area should hold a bit holder. My bottom 10 inches is solid ice lol. I was able to walk on it 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 20 minutes ago, rgwp96 said: My bottom 10 inches is solid ice lol. I was able to walk on it No matter how solid a snowpack is with warmer temps and rain it will get beaten up pretty badly. If there’s fog it will go bye-bye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, HailMan06 said: No matter how solid a snowpack is with warmer temps and rain it will get beaten up pretty badly. If there’s fog it will go bye-bye. Oh def , I’m just saying the bottom crap is ridiculous lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 27 minutes ago, rgwp96 said: My bottom 10 inches is solid ice lol. I was able to walk on it Ours here held up pretty good despite the rain. When it gets down to the shopping mall dirt piles I just want it all gone ASAP. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 The last 6 days of February are averaging 38degs.(32/43), or +1.0. Month to date is 31.8[-2.9]. February should end near 33.1, about -2.1. No Snow till March 03. GFS is snowless. First 11 days of March are averaging 46degs.(38/53),---say +6.0, after a cold start. More like 48-49degs., w/o those first three BN days. 36*(84%RH) here at 6am. 38* by 9am. 39* at 10am. 41* by Noon. 44* by 5pm. 45* by 6pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 Morning thoughts... The long-modeled milder period is now taking hold following yesterday’s snow event. It will be variably cloudy with a passing rain or snow shower. Temperatures will likely top out in the lower 40s in most of the region. Areas from Philadelphia and southward will likely reach the middle 40s. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 43° Newark: 43° Philadelphia: 46° The thermometer could make a run at 50° tomorrow in many parts of the region. Most of the remainder of February will likely see temperatures average somewhat above normal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 10 hours ago, jm1220 said: Ours here held up pretty good despite the rain. When it gets down to the shopping mall dirt piles I just want it all gone ASAP. the parking lot piles here are 2 stories high in some cases. Assuming no one moves them or spreads them out that will take til mid April to go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 17 inches otg right now and I could only guess, because I'm to lazy to actual melt it down, but I would say at this point the LE is 3-4 inches. This is the same as having 3-4 feet of snow otg for melting purposes. We will have snow cover here until mid March if it doesn't snow again, but I would hope it does, at least a couple of more times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 Just started lightly snowing...keep adding to the pack! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 Liberty NY 11:10AM 32 degrees 1 inch of new snow OTG and snowing quite moderately; we'll wind up with 3 brand new inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 sunny and 43 here. Definitely alot of melting going on.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 Snow still falling here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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