donsutherland1 Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 In response to the Arctic Oscillation's having gone positive, a pattern change is now imminent. The advance of the milder air will be preceded by a storm that could bring snow changing to rain to most parts of the region tomorrow. From the Jersey Shore and across Long Island, little or no snow is likely this time around. New York City and Newark will likely pick up near 1" of snow. Across northeastern Pennsylvania and northwestern New Jersey, including Allentown, 2"-4" with local amounts of 6" is likely. A warmup will likely follow the storm. Tuesday will likely see the temperature top out in the lower and middle 40s. Parts of the area could reach or exceed 50° on Wednesday before somewhat cooler air arrives. Overall, a period of warmer than normal temperatures is likely in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas into the first week of March and possibly beyond that. There could be some short-lived shots of cooler air. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.2°C for the week centered around February 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.50°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.00°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through mid-March. The SOI was +19.79 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.454 today On February 20 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.204 (RMM). The February 19-adjusted amplitude was 1.285. Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely into the first week of March. The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Since January 1, New York City has picked up 27.7" snow. Winters that saw December receive 10" or more snow, less than 10" in January, and then 10" or more in February in New York City, saw measurable snowfall in March or April in 83% of cases. Winter 2009-2010 was the exception where only a trace of snow was recorded. This group of winters saw 6" or more snow during the March-April period in 50% of the cases. All said, it is more likely than not that there will be measurable snowfall after February. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 97% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal February. February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 32.9° (2.4° below normal). 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 Models might be bringing back the end of the week storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 12 hours ago, bluewave said: The core of the cold was focused over a smaller geographic region around the Plains during this extreme -AO episode. Notice how much more real estate the winter cold anomalies covered in 09-10, 76-77, and 69-70. So relative to other extreme -AO patterns, this was the warmest for our area. hey just for fun, can you post what 1899 looked like? since many want to compare this arctic outbreak to that one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 8 hours ago, bluewave said: This is probably the first time that a La Niña pattern waited until the end of winter to show up. were 1955-56 and 2017-18 more "nina like"? also in terms of widespread cold, were March-April 2018 much colder than the country as a whole had this season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 6 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: A very snowy February is nearing its conclusion. There could be some additional snowfall tomorrow in Central Park. Areas to the west of New York City should pick up 1"-3" snow with 2"-4" and localized higher amounts running across northeastern Pennsylvania and northwestern New Jersey. How March fares in terms of snowfall will depend, at least in part, on the monthly mean temperature. The monthly mean temperature explains nearly 30% of the City's March snowfall. March Temperatures and Snowfall (New York City): my favorite March was 2015, which continued the amazing backside of winter that started in February. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 7 hours ago, bluewave said: The record AO rise and more -PNA are allowing a Niña-like pattern to finally emerge. but is that a nina pattern emerging or the fact that we had a -AO for so long it simply had to go positive at some point? Seems like AO drives our patterns more than any of these other indices do. So this might be a +AO pattern emerging not a nina pattern emerging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 Anyone else ready for Spring? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 5 hours ago, TriPol said: Anyone else ready for Spring? Thats the best part about March, warm temps with a chance of snow. heh....This winter is already memorable, but i hope we can sneak a march mecs in here somehow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 5 hours ago, TriPol said: Anyone else ready for Spring? Too early 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 The last 7 days of February are averaging 37degs.(30/43), or Normal. Month to date is 31.6[-3.0]. February should end at 33.0[-2.3]. Other than today's fail, No Snow showing. The start of March looks hotter every run, but for the 2nd. Averaging 46degs. for first 10 days. S.E. Canada is +50F in 15 days. 12Z GFS pulls the Switch-er-Rooni and now says the first 10 days of March will average, not 46degs., but 38*(31/44) Spring according to the JMA is: March AN T, April,May Near Normal T. Spring apparently Wetter Than Normal as it shows BN Sea Level P throughout. 32*(67%RH) here at 6am. 34* by 7am. 35* by 8am. 37* by 9am. 39* by 10am. 35*(88%RH)by Noon---snowing. 36* at 1pm, snow stopped. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 3-5 out here. Let’s see what happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 17 hours ago, sferic said: @crossbowftw3 @snywx @Ericjcrash I think we're good for 2-4 tomorrow. what do you think? 2 at my elevation and maybe up to 4 for you. Just catching up since this evolved quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 Morning thoughts... At 7:50 am, an area of heavy snow (likely 1”-1.5” per hour) was moving eastward across central Pennsylvania. That snow will continue to advance rapidly eastward. A period of rain or snow changing to rain will break out during the morning. New York City, Newark, and Philadelphia will likely pick up near 1” of snow. An area extending across northeastern Pennsylvania, northwestern New Jersey and adjacent New York State, including Allentown, will likely see 2”-4” with local amounts of 6”. Temperatures will likely top out in the middle and upper 30s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 39° Newark: 39° Philadelphia: 39° Following today’s precipitation, most of the remainder of February will likely see temperatures average somewhat above normal. There may still be some opportunity for snowfall despite the milder regime. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 1 hour ago, Brett said: It looks like all the models break the pattern down next week and it goes mild we had a great run the last 4 weeks Spring fever will hit everyone. But I wouldn't rule out a final winter punch sometime later in March or April. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 10 hours ago, TriPol said: Anyone else ready for Spring? not of the spring has temps in the 80;s and 90;s if it is a chilly spring i will enjoy that knowing hot humid summer is right around the corner.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 3 hours ago, crossbowftw3 said: 2 at my elevation and maybe up to 4 for you. Just catching up since this evolved quickly Thinking along those lines still and an additional inch or so tomorrow. Just had 24inches plus of snow snow raked off my roof too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 Pouring snow in upper Manhattan 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 Spring fever will hit everyone. But I wouldn't rule out a final winter punch sometime later in March or April. I agree. Just has that feel. I’m going on nothing more than anecdote here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 3.8 inches in butler. Nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 3 inches OTG in Liberty NY, will probably close out at 4 inches. Maybe another inch or two tomorrow @crossbowftw3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 4 hours ago, bluewave said: Yeah, this was the first time we had such a rapid AO rise following a -5 or lower reading. So we got the biggest snowstorm of the winter before the lowest value instead of after. Usually, the -AO lingers for weeks to a month after it drops so low. The heaviest snowstorm usually occurs at the date or after instead of more than a week before this time. looking at the ao forecast its going to stay positive for a while...1974 had a negative ao value but not as great as this year was...Feb 1974 went negative to positive around the 21st and stayed there for two weeks or so...March 74 saw the ao go negative again by mid March...there was a late season snowfall in late March 74 and a little snow and cold in April...If the ao remains positive throughout March it probably will end up as one of the warmest...at this point with twice as much snow as 1973-74 bring on the warmth... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 6 hours ago, White Gorilla said: Spring fever will hit everyone. But I wouldn't rule out a final winter punch sometime later in March or April. I just need one more storm to get to 40" and then I'm good lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 4.8 new snow. Butler nj , less on pavement but nice over performer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, EpicHECS said: Did it stop there yet? Just about , end of radar near 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 4 inches in Liberty NY with today's storm @crossbowftw3 do you think tomorrow we can eek out an inch or two? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 What’s next to track 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 Picked up 0.53" of precipitation for the day. Current temp 35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 12 hours ago, bluewave said: The La Niña was there in the background all winter. But the -AO and +PNA were a stronger influence on our pattern. Now that the AO and PNA are reversing, models forecasts are reverting to more of a La Niña-like look. Ridge near the Aleutians, more -PNA, and SE Ridge. La Niña can still have an effect even if the expected 500 mb patterns and temperature progression didn’t manifest for us. If we have a neutral next winter, do you think it will be a 89-90 type winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 11 hours ago, Brett said: It looks like all the models break the pattern down next week and it goes mild we had a great run the last 4 weeks hey today's snow was nice, rather unexpected here for a few hours around mid day and it stuck to everything. Next week might be mild but it looks yucky and rainy all week- definitely NOT what I want Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 10 hours ago, White Gorilla said: Spring fever will hit everyone. But I wouldn't rule out a final winter punch sometime later in March or April. as long as it doesn't rain I dont mind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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