SnowGoose69 Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Seasonal forecasting has become meaningless now. The enso state is just a small piece of the puzzle. You need to wait until the end of December to see what the Pv and mjo look like. Coming into December everyone was calling for a torch Niña February. Next winter it looks like we won't have the ENSO issue so we will have to hope the MJO does not spend the entire winter in 3-4-5-6. There is a decent chance we will have blocking in the first half of next winter. Historically there has been some tendency for neutral ENSO winters following winters where there was significant blocking to start off similarly. The bad news is they have also had a strong tendency to go strongly +AO/NAO in the back half. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 22 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said: Maybe we could have this trend closer to the coast for next week. It’s long range but we can dream. Could be the final bang for the buck for this winter. Makes sense to go out with a big storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 1 hour ago, uncle W said: some analogs like 1972 and 1974 had temperatures in the 70's the first week in March...I think both months ended up colder than normal...1972 had two mixed events and 1974 a late winter storm...April offered no help until the second half of the month... I remember a few Springs where March started out mild and ended up cold and even had snow in early April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 17 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Every storm took like 2-3 days to move out. I never remember a winter where it would snow for so long after the maine event Yeah, even Fay and Isaias were tucked in during the hurricane season. This is a rare year for summer ridging east of New England and Canadian Maritimes continuing right into the winter. Record SSTs and ridging have been very impressive since last summer. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, even Fay and Isaias were tucked in during the hurricane season. This is a rare year for summer ridging east of New England and Canadian Maritimes continuing right into the winter. Record SSTs and ridging have been very impressive since last summer. Maybe this will become semi-permanent going forward? FWIW this is similar to the 50s, look at the long duration storms we had in March 1956 and February 1958 as well as all the hurricanes near the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 50 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, we just didn’t have the supercharged STJ. The south based blocking seems to have helped to tuck in the storm tracks more than normal. The ridging poking down just east of New England allowed storms to track closer to Southern NJ. It also probably helped to give us about a degree or two of warming. My guess is that we would have the 50”+ of snow like Allentown as of today had the blocking been a little less south based. Maybe for Suffolk County lol, but for NYC and Western Nassau getting to 40"- and we're close- will be a big win. This track has been just fine for us, any mixing waited for when the precip was very light. We've had FOUR 6"+ storms here in SW Nassau, I dont think that's happened since 1995-96..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 58 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Funny how this winter played similar to 09-10. We had one event in December then the snow didn’t return until February. Hopefully we get a warm march Like 2010 Summer of 2010 here we come (hopefully) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 1 hour ago, bluewave said: This was only our 4th winter with a -1 or lower AO for each of the 3 winter moths. But notice how much more south based this one was vs the previous 3. So that made this the warmest winter of the 4. 20-21 09-10 76-77 69-70 I dont think warm is how most will think of this winter, not with whats gone on in the South. It's been a historic winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gmendevils8204 Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 38 minutes ago, Cfa said: It’d be a nice change of pace if we can break the BN March curse. Spring has really sucked around here since like 2012. That was a great spring. I remember going to a Devils game that March in shorts. Was waiting outside for my friends who were meeting me there and it was about 80 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Remember the snow showers we had in May last year which actually accumulated a little on colder surfaces lol how long did it snow for in Brooklyn and was it during the day and did it accumulate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 this winter was a la nina +QBO winter...similar winters were...66-67 added... 1966 -21.90 -17.14 -11.07 -2.33 2.16 5.42 7.47 7.63 9.23 11.00 11.74 13.26 1967 11.03 10.49 10.94 10.13 5.79 -0.58 -5.65 -6.76 -6.06 -4.82 -6.05 -7.27 1971 -10.67 -3.67 0.91 3.75 6.77 8.28 8.88 8.34 8.95 8.48 8.47 9.10 1972 8.20 7.95 7.35 6.22 -2.59 -10.70 -15.45 -19.28 -20.40 -21.17 -20.49 -16.78 1975 -16.70 -15.39 -13.04 -5.12 1.18 4.47 7.41 9.06 10.25 10.65 11.27 10.95 1976 9.22 8.92 9.70 11.53 10.04 2.78 -1.90 -4.89 -6.19 -8.23 -8.89 -11.85 1985 -0.37 4.21 6.30 11.11 13.57 14.04 11.10 11.08 11.72 11.84 11.45 9.51 1986 8.74 10.15 11.96 9.11 3.56 -2.15 -5.25 -9.60 -10.21 -9.60 -8.01 -10.51 2008 -12.42 -4.70 2.19 6.43 11.53 13.45 13.27 11.63 11.60 11.05 9.13 10.46 2009 10.71 12.33 11.44 9.11 1.56 -5.47 -12.21 -14.45 -13.81 -11.69 -13.83 -15.57 2010 -16.02 -16.98 -19.68 -23.57 -26.28 -25.05 -9.84 1.45 6.58 10.83 12.16 10.97 2011 9.18 10.05 10.44 10.71 10.02 3.90 0.44 -0.49 -2.30 -3.05 -9.09 -16.25 2016 9.34 6.77 3.16 0.64 2.37 3.86 6.25 10.07 10.48 12.83 14.16 15.09 2017 14.92 14.78 14.35 13.88 8.01 -3.18 -10.48 -14.42 -15.28 -16.79 -17.20 -18.12 2020 -2.51 -3.20 -4.36 -5.03 -4.86 -2.78 0.34 4.78 7.95 10.80 11.15 10.37 2021 10.19 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 24 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: how long did it snow for in Brooklyn and was it during the day and did it accumulate? It didn't snow long I remember seeing snowflakes during the day and overnight in May. Temp fell down to 32 degrees. Coating on colder surfaces at night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 59 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Maybe this will become semi-permanent going forward? FWIW this is similar to the 50s, look at the long duration storms we had in March 1956 and February 1958 as well as all the hurricanes near the coast. The 500 mb blocking east of New England and the Canadian Maritimes just set a new all-time June to January record by a wide margin. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: The 500 mb blocking east of New England and the Canadian Maritimes just set a new all-time June to January record by a wide margin. Looks like I was right about the 50s though, that was when the previous record was? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 22 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It didn't snow long I remember seeing snowflakes during the day and overnight in May. Temp fell down to 32 degrees. Coating on colder surfaces at night. two separate periods of flurries that each lasted a few minutes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 24 minutes ago, Brett said: Summer 2010 was super hot and humid as I remember super hot but not that humid, my favorite kind of summer lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: super hot but not that humid, my favorite kind of summer lol I agree - it was hot - but not DewPoint disaster the past several years have become. I would take that Spring and Summer - anytime. Also the autumn and winter that followed at the end of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, bkviking said: I agree - it was hot - but not DewPoint disaster the past several years have become. I would take that Spring and Summer - anytime. Also the autumn and winter that followed at the end of it. yesss cant forget about 10-11 even the 98 we hit in September wasn't humid at all. And the winter that came after was memorable in every respect. FWIW I distinctly remember Sundog, who notoriously hates summer heat say that the 100 degree days that July didn't even feel like 90 let alone 100. He thoroughly enjoyed it and said every summer day should be like that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: yesss cant forget about 10-11 even the 98 we hit in September wasn't humid at all. And the winter that came after was memorable in every respect. FWIW I distinctly remember Sundog, who notoriously hates summer heat say that the 100 degree days that July didn't even feel like 90 let alone 100. He thoroughly enjoyed it and said every summer day should be like that. Yeah - maybe someone like Bluewave can post the 500mb anomalies for that summer. I believe we had unusual W-WNW winds that summer. Furnace but just not dewy . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: I dont think warm is how most will think of this winter, not with whats gone on in the South. It's been a historic winter. The core of the cold was focused over a smaller geographic region around the Plains during this extreme -AO episode. Notice how much more real estate the winter cold anomalies covered in 09-10, 76-77, and 69-70. So relative to other extreme -AO patterns, this was the warmest for our area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 Was this February everyone #1 February over the past 20-30 years? Still a little to go, with likely full coverage wall to wall with snowcover, a 16” -30” HECS, 1-2 SECS, and 1-2 smaller storms...it’s up there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 With the amount of snow melt going on today I figured we were in the low 40s. It's 31 degrees at ISP. Late February sun doing some work today. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 25 minutes ago, Northof78 said: Was this February everyone #1 February over the past 20-30 years? Still a little to go, with likely full coverage wall to wall with snowcover, a 16” -30” HECS, 1-2 SECS, and 1-2 smaller storms...it’s up there Yeah it'll be up there though Feb 2003, 2010, and 2015 may slightly take the cake. The extreme cold of 2015 was more impressive and 03 had the bigger storm. 2010 had higher monthly totals and was a couple degrees colder on average. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarrenCtyWx Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 February 2014 needs recognition as well. Consistently cold (though not to the extent of 2015), along with consistently deep snowpack with back to back storms on February 3 and 5 in addition to a great two parter right before Valentine’s Day. Probably one of the more underrated recent winters in general. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 @crossbowftw3 @snywx @Ericjcrash I think we're good for 2-4 tomorrow. what do you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 2 hours ago, Rjay said: With the amount of snow melt going on today I figured we were in the low 40s. It's 31 degrees at ISP. Late February sun doing some work today. Layman's question on this - please folks don't put me on blast.. Speaking of late February sun, I've noticed over the years that when there's a storm threat in March and someone makes mention of the fact that snowfall under marginally thick cloud cover will have trouble accumulating, it seems to be met with ridicule. Obviously sun angle starts playing a larger role in heating up the ground, just as you mention, and we see how quick the snow disappears, increasingly as we go through March. So why references to sun angle met with such reaction? Or is that type of reaction only in response to folks saying that it categorically can't snow, which of course would be silly. Thanks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 3 hours ago, Rjay said: With the amount of snow melt going on today I figured we were in the low 40s. It's 31 degrees at ISP. Late February sun doing some work today. Was thinking the same thing. Actually felt quite nice out despite the temp. Can’t wait until we can get some days in the 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 19 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: Was thinking the same thing. Actually felt quite nice out despite the temp. Can’t wait until we can get some days in the 50s. sun angle already taking effect it feels nice in the sun.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 30 minutes ago, bluewave said: This is probably the first time that a La Niña pattern waited until the end of winter to show up. i thought the la nina pattern would be ending by march hmm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 A very snowy February is nearing its conclusion. There could be some additional snowfall tomorrow in Central Park. Areas to the west of New York City should pick up 1"-3" snow with 2"-4" and localized higher amounts running across northeastern Pennsylvania and northwestern New Jersey. How March fares in terms of snowfall will depend, at least in part, on the monthly mean temperature. The monthly mean temperature explains nearly 30% of the City's March snowfall. March Temperatures and Snowfall (New York City): 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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