uncle W Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 25 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Oh okay, I thought that season followed the pattern of snowy December + mild January + snowy February and March. I guess it did but 9.1 is less than 10 inches....that still is a snowy December though and a memorable Xmas Eve! it works for Newark... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: Picked up another inch and half of snow tonight. 41.5 on the year. where is this snow coming from, I thought the storm was gone lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 The last 8 days of February are averaging 34degs.(29/39), or -3.0. Month to date is 31.6[-2.9]. February should end near 32.3 or about -3.0. The first 9 days of March are averaging 45degs.(37/53), about +5.0 or +6.0, by contrast. The only Snow is about 2" near the 22nd. GFS, is still trying to re-create March 1-2, 1914, however. >957mb to 961mb in NYC. The TeleConnections do not look good for this time: PNA hopelessly -, NAO&EPO are nueutral. Week 2 looks better. The fans that were never there have left the corona virus stands. It is Over. Get ready for the hottest summer in history, because it is unfortunately an 11-Year Solar Cycle Job. 24*(65%RH) here at 6am. 26* by 8am. 27* by 9am. 35* by 2pm. 39* by 4pm. 40* at 4:30pm. 33* by 8pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 We are finally on track for a colder winter month. This will be only the 4th colder winter month since the historic +13.3 December 2015. But we needed an extreme -AO pattern to pull it off. NYC Dec 15....+13.3 Jan 16....+1.9 Feb 16....+2.4 Dec 16....+0.8 Jan 17....+5.4 Feb 17....+6.3 Dec 17....-2.5 Jan 18.....-0.8 Feb 18....+6.7 Dec 18....+2.6 Jan 19....-0.1 Feb 19....+0.9 Dec 19....+0.8 Jan 20....+6.5 Feb 20....+4.8 Dec 20.....+1.7 Jan 21.....+2.2 Feb 21.....-2.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 Winter as a whole looks to be over. Maybe an early March event but the pattern doesn't scream winter to me. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justinj Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 13 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Yes and that was also the last time NYC or western LI had a double digit snowfall in March lol. Also, Jan 1996 is considered the top snowstorm for our area, March 1993 was definitely better in the South though. March 2018 was great out here in suffolk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gmendevils8204 Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 15 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Winter as a whole looks to be over. Maybe an early March event but the pattern doesn't scream winter to me. I’m more than satisfied if that’s the case. Actually starting to look forward to the warmer weather. Will be nice to get back outside since so many other things aren’t available to us right now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 Morning thoughts... Today will be partly to mostly sunny and cold. Temperatures will likely top out in the lower and middle 30s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 36° Newark: 36° Philadelphia: 37° A period of rain or snow changing to rain is likely tomorrow. Some accumulation is likely, especially north and west of New York City. New York City could receive a small accumulation. The remainder of the week will likely see readings generally somewhat above seasonal norms. Meanwhile, parts of China, Japan, and South Korea experienced historic February warmth earlier today. At Beijing, the temperature soared to 79°. That broke the February mark of 69° set just yesterday. The prior record was 68°, which was set on February 13, 1996. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 26 minutes ago, gmendevils8204 said: I’m more than satisfied if that’s the case. Actually starting to look forward to the warmer weather. Will be nice to get back outside since so many other things aren’t available to us right now. My car is a mess. Haven't had a car wash since January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 Not good for winter lovers 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 Februaries have become really frontloaded for snow since 2011. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Total Snowfall Feb 1 to Feb 14 Missing Count 2021-02-14 21.2 0 2020-02-14 T 0 2019-02-14 1.2 0 2018-02-14 0.5 0 2017-02-14 9.4 0 2016-02-14 2.6 0 2015-02-14 6.3 0 2014-02-14 25.7 0 2013-02-14 12.2 0 2012-02-14 0.2 0 2011-02-14 1.6 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Total Snowfall Feb 15 to Feb 28 Missing Count 2021-02-28 4.4 8 2020-02-29 0.0 0 2019-02-28 1.4 0 2018-02-28 4.4 0 2017-02-28 0.0 0 2016-02-29 1.4 0 2015-02-28 7.3 0 2014-02-28 3.3 0 2013-02-28 T 0 2012-02-29 T 0 2011-02-28 3.2 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 7 hours ago, LibertyBell said: where is this snow coming from, I thought the storm was gone lol I know I came home to Easton at 10:30 I pull in my driveway completely covered. Measured 1.5 of pure fluff. I am guessing it was a snow squall cause nothing happened in Stamford 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 some analogs like 1972 and 1974 had temperatures in the 70's the first week in March...I think both months ended up colder than normal...1972 had two mixed events and 1974 a late winter storm...April offered no help until the second half of the month... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 1 hour ago, bluewave said: We are finally on track for a colder winter month. This will be only the 4th colder winter month since the historic +13.3 December 2015. But we needed an extreme -AO pattern to pull it off. NYC Dec 15....+13.3 Jan 16....+1.9 Feb 16....+2.4 Dec 16....+0.8 Jan 17....+5.4 Feb 17....+6.3 Dec 17....-2.5 Jan 18.....-0.8 Feb 18....+6.7 Dec 18....+2.6 Jan 19....-0.1 Feb 19....+0.9 Dec 19....+0.8 Jan 20....+6.5 Feb 20....+4.8 Dec 20.....+1.7 Jan 21.....+2.2 Feb 21.....-2.9 January should have been colder but the cold was on the other side of the globe. The -ao was not help for that month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gmendevils8204 Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 42 minutes ago, MJO812 said: My car is a mess. Haven't had a car wash since January. Same here. Can’t be good for the paint. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 Seasonal forecasting has become meaningless now. The enso state is just a small piece of the puzzle. You need to wait until the end of December to see what the Pv and mjo look like. Coming into December everyone was calling for a torch Niña February. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 23 minutes ago, EpicHECS said: I've been looking around on here but can't seem to find any spring 2021 outlooks. Does anyone know of any that are available? From CPC: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 43 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Not good for winter lovers Hopefully when spring comes, it’s warm and not loaded with back door fronts. Those are the worst, and last year was particularly awful. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 5 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Seasonal forecasting has become meaningless now. The enso state is just a small piece of the puzzle. You need to wait until the end of December to see what the Pv and mjo look like. Coming into December everyone was calling for a torch Niña February. Majority of the long range forecasts had a warm winter with below average snowfall for the majority of the east coast. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 4 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Hopefully when spring comes, it’s warm and not loaded with back door fronts. Those are the worst, and last year was particularly awful. Remember the snow showers we had in May last year which actually accumulated a little on colder surfaces lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 12 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Seasonal forecasting has become meaningless now. The enso state is just a small piece of the puzzle. You need to wait until the end of December to see what the Pv and mjo look like. Coming into December everyone was calling for a torch Niña February. True- Feb will end up below normal temp wise and close to historic for snow. Who had that? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 23 minutes ago, Allsnow said: January should have been colder but the cold was on the other side of the globe. The -ao was not help for that month. This was only our 4th winter with a -1 or lower AO for each of the 3 winter moths. But notice how much more south based this one was vs the previous 3. So that made this the warmest winter of the 4. 20-21 09-10 76-77 69-70 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 21 minutes ago, bluewave said: This was only our 4th winter with a -1 or lower AO for each of the 3 winter moths. But notice how much more south based this one was vs the previous 3. So that made this the warmest winter of the 4. 20-21 09-10 76-77 69-70 09-10 was pretty mild? I remember ever event was a KU but really no artic air that year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 4 minutes ago, Allsnow said: 09-10 was pretty mild? I remember ever event was a KU but really no artic air that year It was colder than this winter. But the coldest departures were in the Southeast. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Season Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 2020-2021 35.2 8 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Season Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 2009-2010 33.8 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 1 minute ago, bluewave said: It was colder than this winter. But the coldest departures were in the Southeast. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Season Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 2020-2021 35.2 8 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Season Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 2009-2010 33.8 0 Funny how this winter played similar to 09-10. We had one event in December then the snow didn’t return until February. Hopefully we get a warm march Like 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 6 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Funny how this winter played similar to 09-10. We had one event in December then the snow didn’t return until February. Hopefully we get a warm march Like 2010 Yeah, we just didn’t have the supercharged STJ. The south based blocking seems to have helped to tuck in the storm tracks more than normal. The ridging poking down just east of New England allowed storms to track closer to Southern NJ. It also probably helped to give us about a degree or two of warming. My guess is that we would have the 50”+ of snow like Allentown as of today had the blocking been a little less south based. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Not good for winter lovers I'm looking forward to the mild weather and am ready for things to melt. Based on tellies March should end up very warm but with all these crazy factors and seasonal changes in play you just never know. For all we know the month will torch with a random blizzard squeezed in somewhere. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, we just didn’t have the supercharged STJ. The south based blocking seems to have helped to tuck in the storm tracks more than normal. The ridging poking down just east of New England allowed storms to track closer to Southern NJ. It also probably helped to give us about a degree or two of warming. My guess is that we would have the 50”+ of snow like Allentown as of today had the blocking been a little less south based. Every storm took like 2-3 days to move out. I never remember a winter where it would snow for so long after the maine event 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 It’d be a nice change of pace if we can break the BN March curse. Spring has really sucked around here since like 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 Maybe we could have this trend closer to the coast for next week. It’s long range but we can dream. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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