uncle W Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 February...Newark daily snow depth... year......01..02..03..04..05..06..07..08..09..10..11..12..13..14..15..16..17..18..19..20..21..22..23..24..25..26..27..28..29.. 2021.....17..17..17..14..11...9..13..12..11..11..13..12..11..10....8....5....3....5....5 2020......0....t....0....0....0....0.....0....t.....0....0....0....t....0....0....0....0....0.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t 2019......0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....T....2....1....T....0....0....t.....0....0....3....1....0....0....0....0....0....0....T...…... 2018......0....t.....0....t.....0....0....1....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....3....2....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0...….. 2017......T....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....8....6....5....3....2....2....1....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0...….. 2016......4....1....T....t.....3....1....0....T....T....T....T.....t.....t.....0....2....1....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0.... 2015......5....8....8....8....7....7....7....6....6....6....6....6....5....5....6....5....8....7....6....5....9....8....5....5....5....4....4....4...…... 2014......T....T....8....7...10...9....8....8....9....9....9....8...17..18..17..16..16..16..15..13..10...9....4....1....T....T.....t.....0...…... 2013......t.....T....T....0....T....T....0....5...10...7....5.....2....t.....t.....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....t.....0....0...…... 2012......0....0....0....0....0....0....0....T....t.....0....t.....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0... 2011.....15..15..14..13..13..11...9....6....5....4....3....2....1....1....0....0....0....0....t.....0....3....2....1....t.....0....0....0....0...…... 2010......0....1....2....0....t.....T....0....0....T...13..11...8....8....7....6....8....7....7....6....2....0....t.....t.....0....7...12...9....6...…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 49 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Honestly March is so volatile it's always a coin toss. MJO page has not updated however the teles late with the PNA rise and AO fall seem to line up with yesterday s depiction of MJO heading into low 8 March is one of those months the that snowfall in NYC is really sensitive to temperature. All the above normal snowfall Marches in NYC since 2010 have had a cold monthly temperature departure. The milder Marches had below normal snowfall. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 People have such short memories. This is the last 6 years full data plus this years so far in NYC. The months highlighted in red were the top snowfall months for that season. In Central Park 4 of the last 6 years March was the snowiest month. Last year shouldn't even count, what a nightmare it was for every month except of course that wonderful May event, that's why this year is such a blessing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 1 hour ago, bluewave said: It will be interesting to see if NYC can get more than 4.3” of snow in March. This is only the 4th year since 48-49 with more than 10” of snow for NYC during Dec and Feb with so little in Jan. While the sample is very small, this type of winter snowfall distribution has been very rare since 48-49. Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 2020-2021 0.0 0.0 10.5 2.1 25.6 M M 38.2 2009-2010 0.0 0.0 12.4 2.1 36.9 T 0.0 51.4 2002-2003 T T 11.0 4.7 26.1 3.5 4.0 49.3 1948-1949 0.0 T 25.3 1.8 10.7 4.2 0.0 42.0 48-49 had more snow in January than posted...the 31st used to show a 4" wet snow event...Newark has it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 Current tellies support a warm March so the chance of snows will be lower than usual. However the pattern should remain highly volatile so nothing is guaranteed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 23 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Current tellies support a warm March so the chance of snows will be lower than usual. However the pattern should remain highly volatile so nothing is guaranteed. Volatility is good for a potential blue bomb. Waiting for a 1993 type monster triple phaser, but this time further east track so we get what State College got then. I know, big weenie post here. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 Btw early Monday supports a quick thump of wet snow especially west of the city. Euro had a few inches. Given cold airmass ahead of the system and faster than modeled timing usually seen with these systems it could extend into NYC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 13 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: People have such short memories. This is the last 6 years full data plus this years so far in NYC. The months highlighted in red were the top snowfall months for that season. In Central Park 4 of the last 6 years March was the snowiest month. Last year shouldn't even count, what a nightmare it was for every month except of course that wonderful May event, that's why this year is such a blessing. It’s pretty tough to have the snowiest month in March when when one of the winter months has 20”+. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Btw early Monday supports a quick thump of wet snow especially west of the city. Euro had a few inches. Given cold airmass ahead of the system and faster than modeled timing usually seen with these systems it could extend into NYC. Maybe NW of the city could grab a half decent event but the southerly flow usually means lights out near the coast. The way this month has been though, who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 26 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: People have such short memories. This is the last 6 years full data plus this years so far in NYC. The months highlighted in red were the top snowfall months for that season. In Central Park 4 of the last 6 years March was the snowiest month. Last year shouldn't even count, what a nightmare it was for every month except of course that wonderful May event, that's why this year is such a blessing. 6 minutes ago, bluewave said: It’s pretty tough to have the snowiest month in March when when one of the winter months has 20”+. Very true Chris, the odds are probably 1,000-1 this year of March being the snowiest month, at least in NYC, but it would be freaking awesome if somehow it happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 8 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Very true Chris, the odds are probably 1,000-1 this year of March being the snowiest month, at least in NYC, but it would be freaking awesome if somehow it happened. Yeah, the bar was lower during those recent years that you posted when March was the snowiest month. It will be interesting to see how we do this March. I added the March snowfall in NYC following a 20”+ Februaries since 1950. Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Feb Mar 2010 36.9 T 2014 29.0 0.1 2006 26.9 1.3 1994 26.4 8.1 2003 26.1 3.5 2021 25.6 M 1967 23.6 17.4 1978 23.0 6.8 1983 21.5 T 1996 21.2 13.2 1979 20.1 T 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 34 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Maybe NW of the city could grab a half decent event but the southerly flow usually means lights out near the coast. The way this month has been though, who knows. That's true but the antecedent airmass is good. The only downside is timing. Had this came overnight I think even the city would've gotten snows. Also paying close attention to the 26th. A cold front comes through Wednesday giving us a cold airmass ahead of the next shortwave. With the AO/NAO positive it's very unlikely the shortwave gets as far suppressed like models show right now. Beyond that it looks warm to start March, maybe even very warm with a large ridge building in the east though it could be transient and doesn't automatically mean it can't snow later on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 The snow mounds around my county are insane. Haven’t had piles like this in years! It will take months for those to melt! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 With respect to March snowfall following February snowfall of 20” or more in New York City: 16 cases Least: None, 1894 Most: 17.4”, 1967 < 1”: 5 (31%) cases 1” or more: 11 (69%) cases 2” or more: 9 (56%) cases 4” or more: 8 (50%) cases 6” or more: 6 (38%) cases 10” or more: 3 (19%) cases There were no cases following February snowfall of 20” or more (n=16) when March was snowier than February. There was one case following February snowfall of 15” or more (n=27) where March was snowier than February. That occurred during winter 1913-14 when February saw 17.4” snow and March saw 21.5” snow. Most of that winter’s March snowfall fell during the March 1-2 blizzard which dumped 14.5” snow. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 36 minutes ago, bluewave said: It’s pretty tough to have the snowiest month in March when when one of the winter months has 20”+. Shocked how low the snow total was in NYC in 16/17. Was low 40s snowfall coastal CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 My @donsutherland1 tidbit of the day: We're entering the time of year where the state of the PNA doesn't matter, re: 6" snowfalls in NYC. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 On 1/19/2020 at 9:28 PM, donsutherland1 said: The following are the statistics for NYC's 6" or greater snowstorms (1950-2019): 1/1-31: 20% PNA- 2/1-14: 39% PNA- 2/15-29: 45% PNA- 3/1-15: 57% PNA- 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 13 minutes ago, Allsnow said: The snow mounds around my county are insane. Haven’t had piles like this in years! It will take months for those to melt! Same here especially in mall parking lots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, Rjay said: My @donsutherland1 tidbit of the day: We're entering the time of year where the state of the PNA doesn't matter, re: 6" snowfalls in NYC. It’s less relevant as the wave lengths shorten. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 27 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: That's true but the antecedent airmass is good. The only downside is timing. Had this came overnight I think even the city would've gotten snows. Also paying close attention to the 26th. A cold front comes through Wednesday giving us a cold airmass ahead of the next shortwave. With the AO/NAO positive it's very unlikely the shortwave gets as far suppressed like models show right now. Beyond that it looks warm to start March, maybe even very warm with a large ridge building in the east though it could be transient and doesn't automatically mean it can't snow later on. The 26th system on the gfs this run is more north in the mid-Atlantic this run vs the Carolinas. Watching the 26th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 Canadian for next weekend - no storm 26th but storm arrives 28th after cold HP is leaving so too warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 25 minutes ago, weatherfreeeeak said: The 26th system on the gfs this run is more north in the mid-Atlantic this run vs the Carolinas. Watching the 26th The high is in a nice spot. It all depends on the timing and amplification of the shortwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 19 minutes ago, Brett said: The NWS has it as basically nothing under an inch none of the afternoon models so far have anything much more than an inch Actually several of the 12z models are showing 2 inches of snow just a little west of the city on monday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: Maybe NW of the city could grab a half decent event but the southerly flow usually means lights out near the coast. The way this month has been though, who knows. Soundings would say only the sfc goes above freezing, if at all. A good quick thump would cool the column. Plus, waters are not nearly as warm as a month ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 We are in the top 5 for number of days in February with at least 1” of snow on the ground. This is a first for a moderate La Niña. The other years were neutral or El Niño’s. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Snow Depth >= 1 1 1936 29 2 2015 28 3 1978 23 4 2014 22 - 2003 22 5 1969 20 5 2021 20 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Snow Depth >= 1 1 2015 28 2 1978 22 3 2014 21 4 2021 20 5 2005 19 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 Mjo is going into the COD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Mjo is going into the COD Emerges in 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: Shocked how low the snow total was in NYC in 16/17. Was low 40s snowfall coastal CT. The sleet killed the big March storm. we don't generally get huge storms in March; over 10 inches is rare, but not impossible, as we've seen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 the coldest temperature so far this winter in NYC is 14 on 1/29...thats on the high side and high enough that March could have the coldest temp of the winter...March 2017 had a min of 14 tieing that winters low...I'm not predicting this to happen...but it could... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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