February 2021

[wdrag]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Walt I thought the pattern was breaking down and we're supposed to have mild sunny weather next week?

 

Not sure who said that?  Only that the cold would soften (my own perception-word).  We seem to be in battleground and the Nina base with lack of steadfast blocking to our north that may still yield consistently warmer than normal temps... however, modeling keeps showing digging short waves through the northern tier and a warming southeastern USA. No big storms but little contributions of varying magnitude.  Too early for mud season.  Also, snowpack to our south may help keep temps down a degree or so from expected, especially interior radiation. 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, wdrag said:

Not sure who said that?  Only that the cold would soften (my own perception-word).  We seem to be in battleground and the Nina base with lack of steadfast blocking to our north that may still yield consistently warmer than normal temps... however, modeling keeps showing digging short waves through the northern tier and a warming southeastern USA. No big storms but little contributions of varying magnitude.  Too early for mud season.  Also, snowpack to our south may help keep temps down a degree or so from expected, especially interior radiation. 

yes. we dont usually have a mud season here (thank goodness). typically we go from our last snowfall to 70 and 80 degree sunny weather lol

 

[Albedoman]

I think Monday maybe a surprise event though. I see a possible overperformer based on this last storm event thermals and radiational cooling over the weekend with the snowpack. . I see 2-4 inch snow event unfolding by late tomorrow model runs.  Your thoughts Walt?

[bluewave]

NYC enters the top 10 again for snowiest February. This is the 5th top 10 snowiest February since 2003. So we continue with the much snowier pattern than began in 02-03.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Total Snowfall	Missing Count
1	2010	36.9	0
2	2014	29.0	0
3	1934	27.9	0
4	2006	26.9	0
5	1994	26.4	0
6	1926	26.3	0
7	2003	26.1	0
8	1920	25.3	0
-	1899	25.3	0
9	2021	24.4	0
10	1967	23.6	0

 

SNOWFALL (IN)                                                              
  TODAY            3.2           3.5  1928   0.3    2.9      0.0      
  MONTH TO DATE   24.4                       6.0   18.4       T       
  SINCE DEC 1     37.0                      17.8   19.2      4.8      
  SINCE JUL 1     37.0                      18.1   18.9      4.8      
  SNOW DEPTH       2                                                

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Not sure who said that?  Only that the cold would soften (my own perception-word).  We seem to be in battleground and the Nina base with lack of steadfast blocking to our north that may still yield consistently warmer than normal temps... however, modeling keeps showing digging short waves through the northern tier and a warming southeastern USA. No big storms but little contributions of varying magnitude.  Too early for mud season.  Also, snowpack to our south may help keep temps down a degree or so from expected, especially interior radiation. 

good point on the snowcover-a large portion of the US has snow on the ground.....

[SnoSki14]

Well I'm ready for winter to end now, it's been a good run. Very close to 40" with nearly 3 weeks of snow cover.

This after extremely low expectations this year. 

Not discounting another snow event before everything completely wraps up but given tellies, MJO it looks very unlikely.

[wdrag]

1 hour ago, Albedoman said:

I think Monday maybe a surprise event though. I see a possible overperformer based on this last storm event thermals and radiational cooling over the weekend with the snowpack. . I see 2-4 inch snow event unfolding by late tomorrow model runs.  Your thoughts Walt?

Agreed: btw...  I don't want to be too exuberant NYC east and south due to BL temp uwarmth ncertainty, but I do believe if NYC has a decent burst of precip prior to 15z/Monday, there will be slight snow accumulation in the city and I definitely agree nw NJ-Pocs newd along the I84 high terrain for 1-4" I have a lower bound of 1 to allow room for failure.  It's possible the upper bound needs to be 5. PCS and high terrain nw NJ.  It's an interesting system. So, let's ride it out.  Has to be a morning event for snow acc in the city.  Little question it's too warm during the mid and late Monday afternoon se of I84 for snow. 

[uncle W]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

NYC enters the top 10 again for snowiest February. This is the 5th top 10 snowiest February since 2003. So we continue with the much snowier pattern than began in 02-03.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Total Snowfall	Missing Count
1	2010	36.9	0
2	2014	29.0	0
3	1934	27.9	0
4	2006	26.9	0
5	1994	26.4	0
6	1926	26.3	0
7	2003	26.1	0
8	1920	25.3	0
-	1899	25.3	0
9	2021	24.4	0
10	1967	23.6	0

 

SNOWFALL (IN)                                                              
  TODAY            3.2           3.5  1928   0.3    2.9      0.0      
  MONTH TO DATE   24.4                       6.0   18.4       T       
  SINCE DEC 1     37.0                      17.8   19.2      4.8      
  SINCE JUL 1     37.0                      18.1   18.9      4.8      
  SNOW DEPTH       2                                                

what time was the snow measured?...it got 0.44" of precip...

[LibertyBell]

14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

NYC enters the top 10 again for snowiest February. This is the 5th top 10 snowiest February since 2003. So we continue with the much snowier pattern than began in 02-03.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Total Snowfall	Missing Count
1	2010	36.9	0
2	2014	29.0	0
3	1934	27.9	0
4	2006	26.9	0
5	1994	26.4	0
6	1926	26.3	0
7	2003	26.1	0
8	1920	25.3	0
-	1899	25.3	0
9	2021	24.4	0
10	1967	23.6	0

 

SNOWFALL (IN)                                                              
  TODAY            3.2           3.5  1928   0.3    2.9      0.0      
  MONTH TO DATE   24.4                       6.0   18.4       T       
  SINCE DEC 1     37.0                      17.8   19.2      4.8      
  SINCE JUL 1     37.0                      18.1   18.9      4.8      
  SNOW DEPTH       2                                                

and this is the anniversary of PD2 how appropriate!

 

[bluewave]

19 minutes ago, uncle W said:

what time was the snow measured?...it got 0.44" of precip...

4pm

Central Park                 3.2 in    0400 PM 02/18   Official NWS Obs    

NYC/La Guardia               3.1 in    0400 PM 02/18   Official NWS Obs  

Newark Airport               4.0 in    0400 PM 02/18   Official NWS Obs     

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

4pm

Central Park                 3.2 in    0400 PM 02/18   Official NWS Obs    

NYC/La Guardia               3.1 in    0400 PM 02/18   Official NWS Obs  

Newark Airport               4.0 in    0400 PM 02/18   Official NWS Obs     

what about JFK Chris? they had the most snow so they should be listed first

 

5.5-6 here in SW Nassau

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

what about JFK Chris? they had the most snow so they should be listed first

 

5.5-6 here in SW Nassau

4.3” at JFK brings them to 4th snowiest February at 25.3”.

SNOWFALL (IN)                                                              
  TODAY            4.3 R         2.1  2000   0.3    4.0      0.0      
  MONTH TO DATE   25.3                       5.5   19.8      0.0      
  SINCE DEC 1     33.4                      16.5   16.9      3.8      
  SINCE JUL 1     33.4                      16.7   16.7      3.8      
  SNOW DEPTH       1                                                 

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Total Snowfall	Missing Count
1	2003	32.1	0
2	2010	29.6	0
3	1961	25.4	0
4	2021	25.3	0

[MJO812]

56 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Well I'm ready for winter to end now, it's been a good run. Very close to 40" with nearly 3 weeks of snow cover.

This after extremely low expectations this year. 

Not discounting another snow event before everything completely wraps up but given tellies, MJO it looks very unlikely.

Euro gets mjo into 8

[SnoSki14]

17 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro gets mjo into 8

It's been showing that for a while and always backed off.

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, uncle W said:

what time was the snow measured?...it got 0.44" of precip...

1 pm. An additional 0.06” precipitation fell as snow. The figure was not updated at 4 pm.

[uncle W]

Just now, donsutherland1 said:

1 pm. An additional 0.06” precipitation fell as snow. The figure was not updated at 4 pm.

I'm interested only because the record snow for the date was 3.5" set in 1928...

[donsutherland1]

11 minutes ago, uncle W said:

I'm interested only because the record snow for the date was 3.5" set in 1928...

Yes. The possible failure to measure could make all the difference in this case.

[donsutherland1]

With today's snowfall, a number of locations set daily snowfall records for February 18. Those locations included:

Allentown: 4.3" (old record: 3.9", 2000)
Bridgeport: 4.0" (tied record set in 2000)
Islip: 3.9" (old record: 2.0", 2014)
New York City-JFK: 4.3" (old record: 2.1", 2000)
New York City-LGA: 3.1" (old record: 2.5", 2000)
Newark: 4.0" (old record: 3.1", 2000)

February 2021 now ranks as among the 10 snowiest February cases on records in numerous parts of the northern Middle Atlantic region. Monthly snowfall figures include:

Allentown: 33.5" (5th snowiest February)
Bridgeport: 29.8" (4th snowiest February)
Islip: 23.1" (6th snowiest February)
New York City-JFK: 25.3" (4th snowiest February)
New York City-LGA: 21.5" (7th snowiest February)
New York City-NYC: 24.4" (10th snowiest February)
Newark: 28.1" (5th snowiest February)

Newark surpassed 40.0" seasonal snowfall for the first time since winter 2014-15 when 46.4" was recorded. To date, Newark has seen 43.2" snow.

Allentown reached 50.0" seasonal snowfall for the first time since winter 2014-15 when 50.1" was measured. With 52.0" snow to date, Allentown has seen the most snowfall since winter 2013-14 when 68.1" snow fell.

Some additional light accumulations are possible overnight and again tomorrow.

In response to the Arctic Oscillation's having gone positive, a pattern change will likely occur starting on or just after February 20. Following the shift in the prevailing pattern, a period of warmer than normal temperatures is likely in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.2°C for the week centered around February 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.50°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.00°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through mid-March.

The SOI was +29.40 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.694 today

On February 17 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.900 (RMM). The February 16-adjusted amplitude was 2.378.

Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely through the end of February.  

The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Since January 1, New York City has picked up 26.5" snow.

Winters that saw December receive 10" or more snow, less than 10" in January, and then 10" or more in February in New York City, saw measurable snowfall in March or April in 83% of cases. Winter 2009-2010 was the exception where only a trace of snow was recorded. This group of winters saw 6" or more snow during the March-April period in 50% of the cases. All said, it is more likely than not that there will be measurable snowfall after February.  

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 87% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal February. February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 33.0° (2.3° below normal).

 

[wdrag]

Excellent summary of stats above Don, and I like your odds in the next to last pgh, beyond Feb. That may mean keep your generators healthy (for the rural dependent). 

In the meantime: Have reviewed 25-26th. I think some snow will happen but possibly north of I80 and modeling is so divergent that not enough confidence on my part to produce a useful thread, yet. I like the GGEM onto this... NAVGEM not much, and remaining modeling is a mess, so far.  NAEFS has a light event, possibly heavier s of I80. Will review late today, this weekend. 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 30degs.(25/36), or -5.0.

3.2" Snow yesterday---26.4" ? for Feb.---39.0" ? for the Season.   Maybe an error on the NWS site.      Maybe 2" for today and then only the CMC has anything else in the next 10 days.

Think Spring Boys!    CI Amusement Rides can open in April at 1/3rd. capacity.       They were all shut up tight last season.

31*(99%RH) P 1021.8mb.      Was 29* at Midnight.         32* by 9am.         34* by 3pm.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

As an offshore system—part two of the storm that brought a moderate snowfall to much of the region yesterday—develops, periods of light snow and flurries are likely today. There could be one or two bursts of moderate snow. Overall, some parts of the area could pick up 1”-2” of snow. Parts of eastern New England could be in line for 2”-4” with some locally higher amounts. Temperatures will likely top out in the lower 30s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 34°

Newark: 34°

Philadelphia: 35°

Once the system departs, a mainly sunny and cool weekend lies ahead.

Next week could see the development of a sustained milder pattern. That milder air could be preceded by some rain or snow changing to rain. Some accumulation is possible, especially north and west of New York City.

Before then, enjoy the snow that has fallen. As 16th century Italian author Pietro Aretino advised, “Let us love winter, for it is the spring of genius.”

[bluewave]

It looks like the models may really struggle with the upcoming pattern. We have a near record -5SD polar vortex sitting in NW Canada. At the same time, there is a strong 50/50 vortex. This goes along with the record snow extent across North America. While the MJO is moving into a less amplified phase, it’s unusually variable for this time of year. Like we have seen this week, the SE Ridge has flexed in this pattern. The end result was one warm mostly rain event and another snowier storm that we saw yesterday. So it’s possible that these dueling influences continue through the rest of the month. Models may not pick up on the details of individual storms until a few days out since one storm may influence the track of another. 
 

 

[Albedoman]

mjo going back to phase 8  oh no bigger storms on track like 93 March snow maybe? 

 

[Albedoman]

16 hours ago, wdrag said:

Agreed: btw...  I don't want to be too exuberant NYC east and south due to BL temp uwarmth ncertainty, but I do believe if NYC has a decent burst of precip prior to 15z/Monday, there will be slight snow accumulation in the city and I definitely agree nw NJ-Pocs newd along the I84 high terrain for 1-4" I have a lower bound of 1 to allow room for failure.  It's possible the upper bound needs to be 5. PCS and high terrain nw NJ.  It's an interesting system. So, let's ride it out.  Has to be a morning event for snow acc in the city.  Little question it's too warm during the mid and late Monday afternoon se of I84 for snow. 

Walt, the 2-4 in looks good on the latest NAM runs this morning for ABE for Monday.  It may require a WWA

[wdrag]

40 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

Walt, the 2-4 in looks good on the latest NAM runs this morning for ABE for Monday.  It may require a WWA

Thanks!  I hadn't looked.  Just ready to snowblower my driveway in 3/4sm s-.  Thanks for the heads up.   I just looked at it.  

 

My take... 1" wet snow too late for the morning rush hour, probably no advisory there but I think it would be warranted ne PA, and maybe high terrain I84  corridor newd of PA, and possibly northwest Sussex County NJ.   Depends on timing sooner w morning rush hr, and snowfall rates.  There have been indications of a 3 hour 2-4" wet snowfall from MD-PA newd, but where exactly?? Think that will have to wait.  In the meantime snowfall continues at varying rates throughout the forum today-Friday. #'s increasing, tho not quite as serious as yesterday LI/most of NJ exclusive of Sussex County. 

[wdrag]

Keep reviewing for Monday morning.  look at the melt factor, timing w rush hr and multi model consensus.  I just think that it might take til 6 hrs before the event for us to know exactly where a small area of 3-4" can accumulate in 3-4 hrs west of I95. Convective. 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

17 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Well I'm ready for winter to end now, it's been a good run. Very close to 40" with nearly 3 weeks of snow cover.

This after extremely low expectations this year. 

Not discounting another snow event before everything completely wraps up but given tellies, MJO it looks very unlikely.

Wow, what a lightweight.

To each his own I suppose.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

17 hours ago, bluewave said:

4pm

Central Park                 3.2 in    0400 PM 02/18   Official NWS Obs    

NYC/La Guardia               3.1 in    0400 PM 02/18   Official NWS Obs  

Newark Airport               4.0 in    0400 PM 02/18   Official NWS Obs     

They had the same 3.2 inches at 1:00 pm yesterday in the Park so that final at midnight of 3.2 inches is highly questionable.

Shocking they would under measure at Central Park

[JustinRP37]

1 minute ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Wow, what a lightweight.

To each his own I suppose.

I'd love it if we could keep the snow pack right to April 1st. My 2 year old is absolutely loving the snow. We are really giving serious thought about a move to Vermont. I do wish there was just a switch in April we could throw to summer mode. 

[MJO812]