February 2021

[LibertyBell]

Just now, weatherpruf said:

If you really want to shudder, look up Carl Panzeram....who shared a floor with the Birdman....now Panzeram was most definitely a sociopath.

wow wiki has loads of stuff on these wicked people

 

[BxEngine]

Guys cmon...

[weatherpruf]

Just now, BxEngine said:

Guys cmon...

Sorry and I knew that was coming...remember I worked in education for 33 years so I start lecturing. Will try to PM folks on this kinda stuff.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Sorry and I knew that was coming...remember I worked in education for 33 years so I start lecturing. Will try to PM folks on this kinda stuff.

Maybe put it in banter lol.

This is a fascinating topic

[donsutherland1]

February has been a snowy month in parts of the Middle Atlantic region. New York City and Newark have seen especially high amounts of snow.

Seasonal snowfall amounts through 4 pm February 17 include:

Albany: 50.2" (7.8" above normal)
Baltimore: 9.2" (6.4" below normal)
Binghamton: 84.5" (27.4" above normal) ***29th highest***
Boston: 32.7" (2.9" above normal)
Bridgeport: 38.9" (20.5" above normal)
Buffalo: 65.4" (7.0" below normal)
Burlington: 54.9" (0.3" above normal)
Caribou: 73.1" (0.9" below normal)
Harrisburg: 28.2" (7.0" above normal)
Islip: 27.8" (11.0" above normal)
New York City: 33.8" (16.0" above normal)
Newark: 39.2" (19.7" above normal)
Philadelphia: 19.7" (3.6" above normal)
Portland: 38.5" (3.3" below normal)
Providence: 26.8" (2.3" above normal)
Washington, DC: 4.7" (7.5" below normal)

More snowfall is imminent. A storm will likely bring a moderate to locally significant snowfall to parts of the Northeast tomorrow through Friday. A general 4"-8" snowfall with locally higher amounts is likely across much of the region, including New York City, Newark, and Philadelphia.

In response to the Arctic Oscillation's having gone positive, a pattern change will likely occur starting on or just after February 20. Following the shift in the prevailing pattern, a period of warmer than normal temperatures is likely in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas.

A dramatic increase in the Arctic Oscillation, as has just occurred with the AO rising just over 6 sigma during the February 11-17 period, has sometimes coincided with storminess. Therefore, the February 14-24 period might offer a window of opportunity for a meaningful storm.

Since 1950, there were 11 cases during the January 16-February 28 timeframe that saw the AO rise at least 3 sigma from a minimum value of -4.000 or below within a 7-day period. Four cases saw a major snowstorm in parts of the Middle Atlantic or New England regions within 3 weeks of the AO's reaching its minimum value. The dates of the AO's minimum value for those four cases with storm dates in parentheses are January 25, 1958 (February 14-17, 1958 NESIS: 6.25), January 19, 1969 (February 8-10, 1969 NESIS: 3.51), February 15, 1969 (February 22-28, 1969 NESIS: 4.29), and January 16, 2016 (January 22-24, 2016 NESIS: 7.66).

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.2°C for the week centered around February 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.50°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.00°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through mid-March.

The SOI was +28.77 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.703 today

On February 16 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.375 (RMM). The February 15-adjusted amplitude was 2.675.

Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely into the closing days of February.  

The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Since January 1, New York City has picked up 23.3" snow.

Winters that saw December receive 10" or more snow, less than 10" in January, and then 10" or more in February in New York City, saw measurable snowfall in March or April in 83% of cases. Winter 2009-2010 was the exception where only a trace of snow was recorded. This group of winters saw 6" or more snow during the March-April period in 50% of the cases. All said, it is more likely than not that there will be measurable snowfall after February.  

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 90% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal February. February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 32.9° (2.4° below normal).

 

[IrishRob17]

7 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Sorry and I knew that was coming...remember I worked in education for 33 years so I start lecturing. Will try to PM folks on this kinda stuff.

Hit the + next to the quote button, then go to the banter thread or the memory thread, etc and quote them there. 

[weatherpruf]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Maybe put it in banter lol.

This is a fascinating topic

The mods get tired of moving things from what I gather; sometimes my stuff is deleted but I don't worry about it; it's usually because I'm way off topic. There's usually more buzz in here about the storms but dare i say, folks might not appreciate them coming such quick succession? And the last one was pretty minor, 2-4. Then the sleet/ice storms kinda fizzled.

[weatherpruf]

1 minute ago, IrishRob17 said:

Hit the + next to the quote button, then go to the banter thread and quote them there. 

Thanks. I am a Luddite and didn't even know I could do that....

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

3 hours ago, uncle W said:

it hit 25 in April 1977...less than a week later it was 90...then it snowed in May...a few weeks later it was 90 again...the 70's were noted fot late season cold and early season cold...

That May 9-10 1977 snow storm was awesome and so unique. Everything was in bloom in HV and most of the leaves were out on the trees. I never thought I'd see it again, and then May 9-10 2020 happened. Although not to the degree of the 1977 event, but accumulating snow in the middle of the day on May 10 with the temp at 33° at 2:00 pm with heavy snow even if for 15-20 minutes was one of those moments you had to savor. Plus waking up to over an inch on the ground that morning.

Amazing the May 10 sun angle didn't seem to affect the accumulations., like it does in late February

[Dan76]

Just now, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

That May 9-10 1977 snow storm was awesome and so unique. Everything was in bloom in HV and most of the leaves were out on the trees. I never thought I'd see it again, and then May 9-10 2020 happened. Although not to the degree of the 1977 event, but accumulating snow in the middle of the day on May 10 with the temp at 33° at 2:00 pm with heavy snow even if for 15-20 minutes was one of those moments you had to savor. Plus waking up to over an inch on the ground that morning.

Amazing the May 10 sun angle didn't seem to affect the accumulations., like it does in late February

May is a winter month ?

[Albedoman]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

February has been a snowy month in parts of the Middle Atlantic region. New York City and Newark have seen especially high amounts of snow.

Seasonal snowfall amounts through 4 pm February 17 include:

Albany: 50.2" (7.8" above normal)
Baltimore: 9.2" (6.4" below normal)
Binghamton: 84.5" (27.4" above normal) ***29th highest***
Boston: 32.7" (2.9" above normal)
Bridgeport: 38.9" (20.5" above normal)
Buffalo: 65.4" (7.0" below normal)
Burlington: 54.9" (0.3" above normal)
Caribou: 73.1" (0.9" below normal)
Harrisburg: 28.2" (7.0" above normal)
Islip: 27.8" (11.0" above normal)
New York City: 33.8" (16.0" above normal)
Newark: 39.2" (19.7" above normal)
Philadelphia: 19.7" (3.6" above normal)
Portland: 38.5" (3.3" below normal)
Providence: 26.8" (2.3" above normal)
Washington, DC: 4.7" (7.5" below normal)

More snowfall is imminent. A storm will likely bring a moderate to locally significant snowfall to parts of the Northeast tomorrow through Friday. A general 4"-8" snowfall with locally higher amounts is likely across much of the region, including New York City, Newark, and Philadelphia.

In response to the Arctic Oscillation's having gone positive, a pattern change will likely occur starting on or just after February 20. Following the shift in the prevailing pattern, a period of warmer than normal temperatures is likely in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas.

A dramatic increase in the Arctic Oscillation, as has just occurred with the AO rising just over 6 sigma during the February 11-17 period, has sometimes coincided with storminess. Therefore, the February 14-24 period might offer a window of opportunity for a meaningful storm.

Since 1950, there were 11 cases during the January 16-February 28 timeframe that saw the AO rise at least 3 sigma from a minimum value of -4.000 or below within a 7-day period. Four cases saw a major snowstorm in parts of the Middle Atlantic or New England regions within 3 weeks of the AO's reaching its minimum value. The dates of the AO's minimum value for those four cases with storm dates in parentheses are January 25, 1958 (February 14-17, 1958 NESIS: 6.25), January 19, 1969 (February 8-10, 1969 NESIS: 3.51), February 15, 1969 (February 22-28, 1969 NESIS: 4.29), and January 16, 2016 (January 22-24, 2016 NESIS: 7.66).

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.2°C for the week centered around February 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.50°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.00°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through mid-March.

The SOI was +28.77 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.703 today

On February 16 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.375 (RMM). The February 15-adjusted amplitude was 2.675.

Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely into the closing days of February.  

The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Since January 1, New York City has picked up 23.3" snow.

Winters that saw December receive 10" or more snow, less than 10" in January, and then 10" or more in February in New York City, saw measurable snowfall in March or April in 83% of cases. Winter 2009-2010 was the exception where only a trace of snow was recorded. This group of winters saw 6" or more snow during the March-April period in 50% of the cases. All said, it is more likely than not that there will be measurable snowfall after February.  

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 90% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal February. February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 32.9° (2.4° below normal).

 

Don, can you please add ABE to your totals? There are over 800,000 residents in the Lehigh Valley now and Allentown is now the the third most populated city in PA  and in almost every snow event this year , we have been in the jackpot zone. I just get tired of cities with far less population get mentioned in your post and the unique physical geography of the LV be forgotten. ABE has received 44 in- (over 50 in  at my house) which is 22 in above normal with another 10 in on the way tomorrow. We have a chance to hit 60 inches this year.   Thanks

[donsutherland1]

21 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

Don, can you please add ABE to your totals? There are over 800,000 residents in the Lehigh Valley now and Allentown is now the the third most populated city in PA  and in almost every snow event this year , we have been in the jackpot zone. I just get tired of cities with far less population get mentioned in your post and the unique physical geography of the LV be forgotten. ABE has received 44 in- (over 50 in  at my house) which is 22 in above normal with another 10 in on the way tomorrow. We have a chance to hit 60 inches this year.   Thanks

I will do so in all future references.

Allentown: 47.7” (24.8” above normal)

[Albedoman]

33 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I will do so in all future references.

Allentown: 47.7” (24.8” above normal)

thanks Don

 

[Rtd208]

Current temp is 27/DP 15

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

Thanks. I am a Luddite and didn't even know I could do that....

I didn't know either....I had decided to cut and paste my posts to that thread I thought the + thing lost the post if you left the thread to go to a different one lol.

 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

I will do so in all future references.

Allentown: 47.7” (24.8” above normal)

Thanks Don!  And MPO if you could (it also helps our NW NJ residents who are near the border, the totals are very similar.

 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

That May 9-10 1977 snow storm was awesome and so unique. Everything was in bloom in HV and most of the leaves were out on the trees. I never thought I'd see it again, and then May 9-10 2020 happened. Although not to the degree of the 1977 event, but accumulating snow in the middle of the day on May 10 with the temp at 33° at 2:00 pm with heavy snow even if for 15-20 minutes was one of those moments you had to savor. Plus waking up to over an inch on the ground that morning.

Amazing the May 10 sun angle didn't seem to affect the accumulations., like it does in late February

I was there in the Poconos for the storm last year and it was amazing and we had snow squalls all day Saturday after a snowy Friday night!  Found out back in Brooklyn and Long Island there was snow during the day on Saturday too!

[wdrag]

Saw the 00z/18 EC OP and 06z/18 GFSv15 and to some extent the 06z/ v16 OP for a snow event NYC forum around the 26th. No thread planned from myself,  till late today or tomorrow morning, to get a little bit of consistency and ensemble support. 

[MJO812]

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 31degs.(27/36), or -4.0.

Today's/Tomorrow's snow just 4"-5" on main models now.        EURO has 3 systems totaling 16"(-4" for today's act) in the next 10 days.       They just take turns catching the fever.

30*(43%RH) here at 6am.     29* at 6:30am.     A very non-stormy 1032.9mb P.    Good for the overrunning event predicted at first, then a secondary low.      Snowing by 7am.        28* at 7:30am.           30* (80%RH) by 1pm,  P  1027.4mb.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

A complex system in which a primary storm will transfer energy to a slowly-developing offshore system will bring a general 4”-8” snowfall across much of the region through tomorrow. Already, parts of Pennsylvania have experienced heavy snow. Valley Forge has picked up 3.3” with 2.0” falling within the span of an hour. Wayne has seen 5.0” with 3.0” reported in under 2 hours.

Snow will overspread the New York City area and north and west of the City early this morning. A period of sleet and freezing rain or even plain rain is likely at some point today, especially along Long Island’s South Shore and the Jersey Shore. Temperatures will likely top out in the lower 30s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 32°

Newark: 32°

Philadelphia: 31°

Additional light snow with perhaps a period of moderate snow is likely tomorrow. Through February 17, New York City has received 21.2” snow this month, which ranks as the 14th snowiest February on record. At Newark, 24.1” has fallen, which ranks 9th highest. With 4” snow, February 2021 will rank as New York City’s 7th snowiest February and Newark’s 5th snowiest February. With 6” snow, February 2021 would rank as both cities’ 4th snowiest February on record.

In the long-range, there is consensus among the ensembles that a sustained milder pattern will develop around or just after February 20.

[donsutherland1]

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks Don!  And MPO if you could (it also helps our NW NJ residents who are near the border, the totals are very similar.

 

Unfortunately, the MPO station does not report snowfall amounts on a regular basis.

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Models all over the place on this one. At least it's a chance to get NYC higher up the Feb. List.

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Models all over the place on this one. At least it's a chance to get NYC higher up the Feb. List.

Euro and Para GFS also have it

[Dan76]

We likey

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Brett said:

If only it wasn’t so far away really good looking threats at days 8 and 9 tend to fall apart 

Uh 

[White Gorilla]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Uh 

How do shorter wavelengths this time of year correlate with model forecast verification? 

[wdrag]

3 hours ago, Brett said:

If only it wasn’t so far away really good looking threats at days 8 and 9 tend to fall apart 

They do?  I don't think they fall apart, just adjust latitude and ptype for the NY forum. 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, wdrag said:

They do?  I don't think they fall apart, just adjust latitude and ptype for the NY forum. 

Walt I thought the pattern was breaking down and we're supposed to have mild sunny weather next week?

 

[wdrag]

Pending the 00z/19 model cycle/ensembles inclusive of naefs, may begin a thread for a light to moderate wintry event for a portion of the NYC subforum the 25th-26th, that may garner more attention as we move past the messy long duration event in progress. This looks cold enough for snow north of I80, maybe even a bit to the south but modeling will adjust it's targeted latitude. Which way, north or south?