February 2021

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, uncle W said:

why most people were cookie cutting the la nina long range failed to look back at the years that were like this...this year is like 1973-74 on steroids...

This winter has probably been the most Nino-like moderate La Niña that we have ever seen. The +PNA for much of the winter has been classic El Niño. The warmer to colder and snowier progression by later in the winter is also El Niño. The -5 AO AO drop this February only occurred in the past during El Niño winters. Funny how the last two El Niño winters in 18-19 and 19-20  had more Niña-like patterns. So something is going on that is altering the expected ENSO response during the last three winters. Probably related to the anomalous warm SST blobs that have popped up all around the globe. The location of marine heatwaves need to be taken into account. But the interactions may be beyond what seasonal forecasts can resolve. The most reliable relationship between snowy winters and the -AO has worked out nicely this winter or us . 

February -5 AO readings and ENSO

2021.....-1.2

2010.....+1.6

1978.....+0.8

1969.....+1.1

[donsutherland1]

Winter 2020-21 has witnessed persistent and deep blocking with at least one bout of extreme blocking (-4.000 or below). The end result has been above average snowfall in New York City.

To date, the December-February has averaged -2.215, 85% of days have seen the AO at or below -1.000, and the AO reached a minimum value of -5.314. That fits the cluster of winters with AO conditions that are conducive to above average snowfall.

For purposes of illustration, I ran the data for winters 1950-51 through 2019-20 for snowfall at New York City's Central Park. Daily AO data was first reported on January 1, 1950. To assure consistency with all winter cases, I used the December 1-February 28 timeframe. There were three broad clusters:

Cluster 1: Deep and persistent blocking with one or more extreme blocking episodes:

AO average: -0.500 or below
Days with the AO at or below -1.000: 50% or more
Lowest AO value: -4.000 or below

Cases (winters): 14 (20% of winters)

Average seasonal snowfall: 37.1"
Least seasonal snowfall: 16.3", 1962-63
Most seasonal snowfall: 75.6", 1995-96

Distribution:
< 10" seasonal snowfall:  0% cases
< 20" seasonal snowfall: 7% cases
20" or more seasonal snowfall: 93% cases
30" or more seasonal snowfall: 57% cases
40" or more seasonal snowfall: 29% cases
50" or more seasonal snowfall: 29% cases

Cluster 2: Lack of deep and persistent blocking with no extreme blocking episodes:

AO average: +0.500 or above
Days with the AO at or below -1.000: Less than 50% days
Lowest AO value: Above -4.000

Cases (winters): 12 (17% of winters)

Average seasonal snowfall: 17.9"
Least seasonal snowfall: 2.8", 1972-73
Most seasonal snowfall: 50.3", 2014-15

Distribution:
< 10" seasonal snowfall:  17% cases
< 20" seasonal snowfall: 75% cases
20" or more seasonal snowfall: 25% cases
30" or more seasonal snowfall: 8% cases
40" or more seasonal snowfall: 8% cases
50" or more seasonal snowfall: 8% cases

Cluster 3: All other winters

Cases (winters): 44 (63% of winters)

Average seasonal snowfall: 25.1"
Least seasonal snowfall: 3.5", 2001-02
Most seasonal snowfall: 57.4", 2013-14

Distribution:
< 10" seasonal snowfall:  9% cases
< 20" seasonal snowfall: 45% cases
20" or more seasonal snowfall: 55% cases
30" or more seasonal snowfall: 30% cases
40" or more seasonal snowfall: 25% cases
50" or more seasonal snowfall: 9% cases

 

[weatherpruf]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The December 16-17 snowstorm offered a big clue that this would turn out to be a snowy winter.

At least in the New Brunswick area, this is generally true; a decent event in Dec usually means more is on the way, but it was unusual for Jan to be so bereft of snow...

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

I think the models may really struggle beyond 5 days with such a volatile looking set up. Especially if a piece of that PV breaks off and dives south toward the US. Could make for an interesting storm.

Could go either way. You could torch like today's Euro shows or have a large cold spell like the gfs shows.

Pure guessing games after day 4-5.

Tellies would strongly favor the milder scenario though and that's what I think will happen but def can't rule out a March snowstorm.

[Allsnow]

The big snowstorm in late January was a sign of things to come for both Chicago and nyc 

[EastonSN+]

6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Could go either way. You could torch like today's Euro shows or have a large cold spell like the gfs shows.

Pure guessing games after day 4-5.

Tellies would strongly favor the milder scenario though and that's what I think will happen but def can't rule out a March snowstorm

This would work I think?

 

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, bluewave said:

This has to one of the most backloaded February La Ninas for snow and cold across the US that we have ever seen. Gives new meaning to competing winter influences. Makes it very difficult to produce seasonal forecasts during the fall based solely on ENSO and past analogs. It’s the third consecutive winter that forecasts went against ENSO expectations. Even though 15-16, 16-17, and 17-18 were extreme winters for their weather swings, at least they retained the El Niño and La Niña expected progressions. 

 

didnt we also have this a few years ago in March and early April as well as back in 1955-56?  I think it's high time we stop thinking in el nino la nina terms, there's a lot more important things going on

 

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, bluewave said:

This has to one of the most backloaded February La Ninas for snow and cold across the US that we have ever seen. Gives new meaning to competing winter influences. Makes it very difficult to produce seasonal forecasts during the fall based solely on ENSO and past analogs. It’s the third consecutive winter that forecasts went against ENSO expectations. Even though 15-16, 16-17, and 17-18 were extreme winters for their weather swings, at least they retained the El Niño and La Niña expected progressions. 

 

forecasting based on ENSO was the reason long range forecasts are SO inaccurate- I hope we've all learned our lesson!

 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, uncle W said:

NYC needs 6.8" by March 1st to reach 30" in 30 days...a big chunk if not all will be added after this storm...it needs 6.7" by Feb 24th for the 30/30...1973-74 was an analog with late season snows...those 1970's analogs with February being the coldest month had record or near record cold in April...lets hope that doesn't happen...I rather have 80 and Sunny by then but who knows for sure...the first warm day is a different kind of rush to the senses...

I think the 11 year cycle will be more likely than late season cold- 1977 might be a better analog if you're going to use the 70s.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Brett said:

So a continued parade of storms into March this is crazy I can’t remember anything like this

a few years ago (also in a "la nina") we had four snowstorms in March and one in April.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

More competing influences. We still have the cold vortex lingering in Canada while the SE Ridge tries to flex. So could be a back and forth between warm ups and cool downs and an active storm track.

 

this is a lot better than the "colder" arctic shots of the 80s, we have much more snow than we did back then because the arctic shots dont cover the entire nation and theres an active storm track on their boundaries.

 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

This winter has probably been the most Nino-like moderate La Niña that we have ever seen. The +PNA for much of the winter has been classic El Niño. The warmer to colder and snowier progression by later in the winter is also El Niño. The -5 AO AO drop this February only occurred in the past during El Niño winters. Funny how the last two El Niño winters in 18-19 and 19-20  had more Niña-like patterns. So something is going on that is altering the expected ENSO response during the last three winters. Probably related to the anomalous warm SST blobs that have popped up all around the globe. The location of marine heatwaves need to be taken into account. But the interactions may be beyond what seasonal forecasts can resolve. The most reliable relationship between snowy winters and the -AO has worked out nicely this winter or us . 

February -5 AO readings and ENSO

2021.....-1.2

2010.....+1.6

1978.....+0.8

1969.....+1.1

This is a great thing hopefully now people will start doing some actual thinking instead of being enso fundamentalists, which is why long range forecasts have always bene so inaccurate.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, weatherpruf said:

At least in the New Brunswick area, this is generally true; a decent event in Dec usually means more is on the way, but it was unusual for Jan to be so bereft of snow...

yes a similar thing happened in 10-11 but January was much snowier and colder that time.

[EastonSN+]

14 minutes ago, Brett said:

If this constant snow pattern continues the rest of this month and into March a bunch of people are going to be wrong. From what I have seen the majority of forecasts have a break in the snow pattern and mild conditions from this weekend into early March

There will definitely be a mild up period after next mid week. The million dollar question is following the warm up. GEFS has a decent snowy look to it while GEPS looks all out mild. 

[CIK62]

WELL,  THE GFS PREPARES FOR ANOTHER 50 TO  60 DEGREE ERROR IN THE 850mb T and 2mT for  about March 04.

Previous run was  +7C and 62*,  but next run is  -28C and  4* at about the  same time.             I would love to throw the GFS into a clothes drier in my condo with a note around it saying:

IF YOU SMELL SMOKE OR SEE FLAMES------D O   N O T H I N G

At least  the snow is holding up.       Warning Criteria  not  met due to  time it takes to reach the required 6"  (12  hours), according to the  excellent explanation in the storm topic area.        ***************Spoke too  soon.      Next  run is just 3"  and 7" for NAM------18Z the most reliable run of this day or any day    LOL.

[LibertyBell]

35 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

There will definitely be a mild up period after next mid week. The million dollar question is following the warm up. GEFS has a decent snowy look to it while GEPS looks all out mild. 

GEPS? you mean the para?

 

[uncle W]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

I think the 11 year cycle will be more likely than late season cold- 1977 might be a better analog if you're going to use the 70s.

it hit 25 in April 1977...less than a week later it was 90...then it snowed in May...a few weeks later it was 90 again...the 70's were noted fot late season cold and early season cold...

[LibertyBell]

Just now, uncle W said:

it hit 25 in April 1977...less than a week later it was 90...then it snowed in May...a few weeks later it was 90 again...the 70's were noted fot late season cold and early season cold...

and early season heat!  lots of extremes there.  1977 had the second highest temp recorded in NYC at 104, tied in 2011.

 

[uncle W]

11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

and early season heat!  lots of extremes there.  1977 had the second highest temp recorded in NYC at 104, tied in 2011.

 

it was a great time with the riots and Son of Sam...

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, uncle W said:

it was a great time with the riots and Son of Sam...

and the big black out!

didnt have that again until 2004.....

and then in Sandy

that one was the longest- 25 hours

 

[Allsnow]

 

[Allsnow]

More early 1900 records falling 

 

 

[weatherpruf]

31 minutes ago, uncle W said:

it was a great time with the riots and Son of Sam...

Son of Sam, now there was one of the great BS artists of the era; convinced them all he was psycho. He wasn't, he was a sociopath and a serial killer. And it was very unfair to people who have psychosis, the vast majority of whom are nonviolent and just want to get better. Summer of Sam is a movie that goes into it, along with the whole Reggie phenomenon.....

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Son of Sam, now there was one of the great BS artists of the era; convinced them all he was psycho. He wasn't, he was a sociopath and a serial killer. And it was very unfair to people who have psychosis, the vast majority of whom are nonviolent and just want to get better. Summer of Sam is a movie that goes into it, along with the whole Reggie phenomenon.....

lots of psychos in the 70s psycho doesn't mean you shouldn't be punished for your crimes, lots of corporate head types are psychos too.  sourced from Psych today "The corporate psychopathy"

*I mean psychopaths, which is different from having a psychosis.

Did you read about the dating game killer?  They confused him with another serial killer who was 'working' at the same time (turned out to be three separate serial killers).

Crazy how many times this guy was let out of prison and kept on killing.  He was on death row multiple times and got released anyway.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rodney_Alcala

[weatherpruf]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

lots of psychos in the 70s

Did you read about the dating game killer?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rodney_Alcala

Yes, but none of them were "psycho" they knew right from wrong and were reality oriented. In short, just evil. Very few people with psychosis are actually a danger to others or organized enough to plan serial killings. There have been a few, but more than a few have BS'd the shrinks into thinking they were nuts ( Kenneth Bianchi, Berkowitz, possibly Kallinger ). Dahmer was one who actually was a little psychotic but his main feature was sociopathy. If you have a chance to catch it, Netflx's  Mindhunter is the best drama about this stuff. 

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Yes, but none of them were "psycho" they knew right from wrong and were reality oriented. In short, just evil. Very few people with psychosis are actually a danger to others or organized enough to plan serial killings. There have been a few, but more than a few have BS'd the shrinks into thinking they were nuts ( Kenneth Bianchi, Berkowitz, possibly Kallinger ). Dahmer was one who actually was a little psychotic but his main feature was sociopathy. If you have a chance to catch it, Netflx's  Mindhunter is the best drama about this stuff. 

I edited my post to differentiate between psychopathy and psychosis sorry lol.

psychopaths- know the difference between right and wrong and dont care.  Like corporate psychopathy

this is different from having psychosis.

Psychopaths deserve to be jailed for their crimes.

Ugh do you remember a really creepy case involving Leopold and Loeb?

I cant even read about this stuff- I have horrible nightmares.

These people should all have their brains surgically altered.

Prison isn't enough, they need to have parts of their brain removed that cause them to be evil and violent.

 

 

[weatherpruf]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I edited my post to differentiate between psychopathy and psychosis sorry lol.

psychopaths- know the difference between right and wrong and dont care.  Like corporate psychopathy

this is different from having psychosis.

Psychopaths deserve to be jailed for their crimes.

Ugh do you remember a really creepy case involving Leopold and Loeb?

I cant even read about this stuff- I have horrible nightmares.

These people should all have their brains surgically altered.

Prison isn't enough, they need to have parts of their brain removed that cause them to be evil and violent.

 

 

Yes it is a famous case studied by just about everyone in mental health, social sciences etc. because Leopold was not a sociopath, and he did turn his life around and upon his release lived a productive life serving others, incredibly. Loeb died in prison in 1936; he was the more likely sociopath.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, weatherpruf said:

Yes it is a famous case studied by just about everyone in mental health, social sciences etc. because Leopold was not a sociopath, and he did turn his life around and upon his release lived a productive life serving others, incredibly. Loeb died in prison in 1936; he was the more likely sociopath.

Wasn't Loeb murdered?

I dont remember.....

Also, do you remember the case from the midwest where a bunch of pre teen school girls tricked another girl into going out with them and carved her up into pieces

See, this is my proof that there is no such thing as a "god"

 

[weatherpruf]

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I edited my post to differentiate between psychopathy and psychosis sorry lol.

psychopaths- know the difference between right and wrong and dont care.  Like corporate psychopathy

this is different from having psychosis.

Psychopaths deserve to be jailed for their crimes.

Ugh do you remember a really creepy case involving Leopold and Loeb?

I cant even read about this stuff- I have horrible nightmares.

These people should all have their brains surgically altered.

Prison isn't enough, they need to have parts of their brain removed that cause them to be evil and violent.

 

 

If you really want to shudder, look up Carl Panzeram....who shared a floor with the Birdman....now Panzeram was most definitely a sociopath.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, weatherpruf said:

Yes it is a famous case studied by just about everyone in mental health, social sciences etc. because Leopold was not a sociopath, and he did turn his life around and upon his release lived a productive life serving others, incredibly. Loeb died in prison in 1936; he was the more likely sociopath.

the abbreviation "psycho" is a disservice, because when we use it outside of context there's no way to differentiate between psychopathy and psychosis