February 2021

[donsutherland1]

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This was the 9th longest streak under 50° at Islip before the 50s today.
 

Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature < 50 
for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Run Length	Ending Date
Period of record: 1963-09-05 to 2021-02-15
1	79	1968-03-10
2	62	2011-02-13
3	57	1977-02-15
4	54	2004-02-27
5	49	2015-03-08
6	48	1990-01-15
7	47	1985-02-18
8	45	1969-03-17
9	44	2021-02-15
-	44	1981-01-26

After 44 consecutive days during which the temperature remained below 50° in Central Park, the temperature reached 50° this afternoon for the first time since January 2.

[uncle W]

Central Park had 80 days in a row below 50 degrees from 12/29/68-3/15/69...that year had blocking 24/7 all winter...ok maybe a few hours off...this year with less cold and similar blocking we got more snow...

[Snowzone]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

The 1899 Arctic outbreak extended to the East Coast with -6 low in NYC.

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature	Snowfall
1899-02-08	31	11	6.5A
1899-02-09	11	-2	0.0
1899-02-10	7	-6	0.0
1899-02-11	9	-2	0.0
1899-02-12	9	4	S
1899-02-13	11	6	16.0A
1899-02-14	24	10	0.0

Reliable observation times are not available prior to 1982

I know that the February 1899 Artic blast did indeed extend to the east coast. As did other severe Artic outbreaks. My point was, I do not recall any Artic blast this extreme, located this far south and far enough east to include the Ohio River valley, that did NOT reach the east coast? 

[uncle W]

winter months when the temperature stayed below 50 in Central Park since 1958......

month year.......max min...snowfall...

February 1958...49.....3...10.7"

February 1968...49.....5.....1.1"

January 1969.....48...11.....1.0"

February 1969...44...17...16.6"

January 1971.....46.....4...11.4"

January 1977.....44....-2...13.0"

February 1978...41...10...23.0"

January 1981.....49.....2.....8.0"

February 1986...48...18.....9.9"

February 2007...49.....8.....3.8"

January 2009.....47.....6.....9.0"

February 2010...46...17...36.9"

February 2015...43.....2...13.6"

 

 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Snowzone said:

I know that the February 1899 Artic blast did indeed extend to the east coast. As did other severe Artic outbreaks. My point was, I do not recall any Artic blast this extreme, located this far south and far enough east to include the Ohio River valley, that did NOT reach the east coast? 

I agree with you. The US is much warmer now that it was during the 1980s and earlier times. The only area of small cold departures during the last 10 winter average has been focused over the Upper Plains. You can see how much more expansive the cold was across the US during the 1980s. So it makes sense that this historic cold outbreak was focused closer to the Plains. The 1989 Arctic outbreak matched the 1980s cold pattern which was more spread out over a wider area.

 

 

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

I agree with you. The US is much warmer now that it was during the 1980s and earlier times. The only area of small cold departures during the last 10 winter average has been focused over the Upper Plains. You can see how much more expansive the cold was across the US during the 1980s. So it makes sense that this historic cold outbreak was focused closer to the Plains. The 1989 Arctic outbreak matched the 1980s cold pattern which was more spread out over a wider area.

 

 

those maps are the inverse of each other-what little warmth there was in the 80's is where there is little cold now....odd

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

After 44 consecutive days during which the temperature remained below 50° in Central Park, the temperature reached 50° this afternoon for the first time since January 2.

I think it hit 50 at JFK too

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, uncle W said:

Central Park had 80 days in a row below 50 degrees from 12/29/68-3/15/69...that year had blocking 24/7 all winter...ok maybe a few hours off...this year with less cold and similar blocking we got more snow...

the wonders of an increasing precip avg lol

[donsutherland1]

34 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I think it hit 50 at JFK too

The highs were:

JFK: 49

LGA: 53

NYC: 51

[LibertyBell]

21 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The highs were:

JFK: 49

LGA: 53

NYC: 51

hmm weird, the sea breeze got to JFK?  I thought it was at least 50 there

 

[bluewave]

53 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

those maps are the inverse of each other-what little warmth there was in the 80's is where there is little cold now....odd

The 1980s Arctic outbreaks covered more real estate than this one. You can see how the US average temperatures on the peak outbreak days were colder in 1983 and 1989. Brian B has a fantastic post below comparing some of the strongest Arctic outbreaks back to 1899.

 

[LibertyBell]

What about my favorite Jan 1985?

 

[donsutherland1]

Clouds parted following the exit of a storm soaked much of the region overnight into the morning and the mercury rose to 50° in many parts of the Middle Atlantic region.
 
Tomorrow will be mostly sunny and noticeably colder than today. Afterward, a storm could bring a moderate to significant snowfall to parts of the Northeast on Thursday into Friday. A widespread 4"-8" snowfall with locally higher amounts is likely, including New York City, Newark, and Philadelphia.

In response to the Arctic Oscillation's having gone positive, a pattern change will likely occur starting on or just after February 20. Following the shift in the prevailing pattern, a period of warmer than normal temperatures is likely in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas.

Today, many areas in the Plains States, including Texas, experienced additional record and near record cold temperatures from what has been the coldest air mass in three decades in many parts of that region.

Minimum temperatures through 6 pm EST included:

Abilene, TX: -4° (tied record set in 1895)
Austin: 7° (old record: 20°, 1903)
Baton Rouge: 20° (old record: 23°, 1909)
Corpus Christi: 19° (old record: 20°, 1895)
Dallas: -2° (old record: 12°, 1903) ***Coldest since January 31, 1949***
Hastings, NE: -30° (old record: -13°, 1979) ***Tied all-time record***
Houston: 13° (tied record set in 1895)
Lincoln, NE: -31° (old record: -18°, 1978) ***Coldest since January 12, 1974***
Lubbock, TX: 5° (old record: 13°, 1936 and 1979)
North Platte, NE: -20° (old record: -15°, 1881)
Oklahoma City: -14° (old record: 4°, 1903) ***Coldest since February 12, 1899***
Omaha: -23° (old record: -17°, 1979)
Shreveport: 1° (old record: 20°, 1903) ***Coldest since January 18, 1930)
Tulsa: -13° (old record: 3°, 1920) ***Coldest since January 22, 1930***
Tyler, TX: -6° (old record: 16°, 2007) ***Set new all-time record: Previous record: -3°, January 18, 1930; records go back to 1883***
Waco, TX: -1° (old record: 16°, 2007)
Wichita: -17° (old record: -6°, 1903)

Dallas saw the temperature fall below 10° for a record-tying third consecutive day and below zero for only its fourth time on record. Records for the Dallas-Fort Worth area go back to September 1898.

Today, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) attained positive values for the first time since December 25, 2020 when the AO was +0.226. Whether this development will mark the end of the prolonged period of blocking that has prevailed throughout winter 2020-21 or a temporary break, remains to be seen.

A dramatic increase in the AO has sometimes coincided with storminess. Therefore, the February 14-24 period might offer a window of opportunity for a meaningful storm. That window of opportunity could extend through the end of February should blocking persist or return.

Since 1950, there were 11 cases during the January 16-February 28 timeframe that saw the AO rise at least 3 sigma from a minimum value of -4.000 or below within a 7-day period. Four cases saw a major snowstorm in parts of the Middle Atlantic or New England regions within 3 weeks of the AO's reaching its minimum value. The dates of the AO's minimum value for those four cases with storm dates in parentheses are January 25, 1958 (February 14-17, 1958 NESIS: 6.25), January 19, 1969 (February 8-10, 1969 NESIS: 3.51), February 15, 1969 (February 22-28, 1969 NESIS: 4.29), and January 16, 2016 (January 22-24, 2016 NESIS: 7.66).

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.2°C for the week centered around February 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.50°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.00°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through mid-March.

The SOI was +16.52 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.568 today

On February 15 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.673 (RMM). The February 14-adjusted amplitude was 2.880.

Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely into the closing days of February.  

The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Since January 1, New York City has picked up 23.3" snow.

Winters that saw December receive 10" or more snow, less than 10" in January, and then 10" or more in February in New York City, saw measurable snowfall in March or April in 83% of cases. Winter 2009-2010 was the exception where only a trace of snow was recorded. This group of winters saw 6" or more snow during the March-April period in 50% of the cases. All said, it is more likely than not that there will be measurable snowfall after February.  

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 85% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal February. February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 33.0° (2.3° below normal).

 

[donsutherland1]

22 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

What about my favorite Jan 1985?

 

17.1 degrees on January 21, 1985.

[uncle W]

record snow for 2/18 in NYC is 3.5" in 1928...its 12.7" on 2/19/79...

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, uncle W said:

record snow for 2/18 in NYC is 3.5" in 1928...its 12.7" on 2/19/79...

the storm crept up on us from the south!

People talking about arctic cold widespread across the CONUS need to look up the Winter of 1979!  It was a sea of blue from sea to shining sea!

 

[LibertyBell]

a good chance that we get our 4th 6"+ snowfall of the season (going by JFK numbers)

what's the most 6" + snowfalls either the park or one of the local airports has seen in a season?

 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 29degs., (24/34) again[3rd. day].

Month to date is 32.3[-1.8].         It should be 31.3 by the 25th.

Snow Thurs/Fri and maybe into next Mon.(On and Off) is averaging 10" on the major models.      Skin T should be ready to receive the snow as soon as it starts---as we stay under 32 today.       NWS is 4" Low> 9" High and 7" Best Bet.

26*(50%RH) here at 6am.      25* at 7am.      24* at 8am.       23* at 9am.      29* by Noon.        30* by 1pm.      Reached 36*  at  4:30pm.      32*/33* during 6pm-9pm.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

Yesterday’s mild temperatures are now in the past. Today will be sunny but much cooler than yesterday. Temperatures will likely top out in the lower 30s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 33°

Newark: 33°

Philadelphia: 33°

A storm will bring a widespread 4”-8” snowfall to the region, which has already seen above to much above normal snowfall this month. Through February 16, New York City has received 21.2” snow this month, which ranks as the 14th snowiest February on record. At Newark, 24.1” has fallen, which ranks 9th highest. With 4” snow, February 2021 will rank as New York City’s 7th snowiest February and Newark’s 5th snowiest February. With 6” snow, February 2021 would rank as both cities’ 4th snowiest February on record.

In the long-range, there is consensus among the ensembles that a sustained milder pattern will develop around or just after February 20.

[bluewave]

This year really takes the prize for snow extent volatility. We went from record highs in October to record lows and now we are on top again. Also interesting how a version of the October pattern repeated in February.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/snow/HTML/snow_extent_plots.html

 

 

 

[Allsnow]

Winter showed up late but brought the party across the country. Unbelievable historic cold in the central US. 
 

 

[Allsnow]

 

[Allsnow]

 

[Allsnow]

You can thank the ssw for putting the TPV over Minnesota 

[bluewave]

This has to one of the most backloaded February La Ninas for snow and cold across the US that we have ever seen. Gives new meaning to competing winter influences. Makes it very difficult to produce seasonal forecasts during the fall based solely on ENSO and past analogs. It’s the third consecutive winter that forecasts went against ENSO expectations. Even though 15-16, 16-17, and 17-18 were extreme winters for their weather swings, at least they retained the El Niño and La Niña expected progressions. 

 

[Rtd208]

Cold out there this morning.

Current temp 23/DP 7

[uncle W]

NYC needs 6.8" by March 1st to reach 30" in 30 days...a big chunk if not all will be added after this storm...it needs 6.7" by Feb 24th for the 30/30...1973-74 was an analog with late season snows...those 1970's analogs with February being the coldest month had record or near record cold in April...lets hope that doesn't happen...I rather have 80 and Sunny by then but who knows for sure...the first warm day is a different kind of rush to the senses...

[uncle W]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

This has to one of the most backloaded February La Ninas for snow and cold across the US that we have ever seen. Gives new meaning to competing winter influences. Makes it very difficult to produce seasonal forecasts during the fall based solely on ENSO and past analogs. It’s the third consecutive winter that forecasts went against ENSO expectations. Even though 15-16, 16-17, and 17-18 were extreme winters for their weather swings, at least they retained the El Niño and La Niña expected progressions. 

 

why most people were cookie cutting the la nina long range failed to look back at the years that were like this...this year is like 1973-74 on steroids...

[donsutherland1]

13 minutes ago, uncle W said:

why most people were cookie cutting the la nina long range failed to look back at the years that were like this...this year is like 1973-74 on steroids...

The December 16-17 snowstorm offered a big clue that this would turn out to be a snowy winter.

[uncle W]

2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The December 16-17 snowstorm offered a big clue that this would turn out to be a snowy winter.

the same dates as the Dec 1973 ice storm...that winter was mediocre but better than all the early 1970's winters...