February 2021

[EastonSN+]

It's east based but it's there with the EPO. Perhaps we get another shot.

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I heard the Dallas area was getting "lake effect snow"!  Has that ever happened before?

Probably in 1895 and/or 1899, but I am not aware of documentation.

[donsutherland1]

Precipitation will move into the region this evening or overnight. Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City will likely see mainly rain. Far north and west of those cities, a period of snow, sleet, and freezing rain is likely. An area running from northeastern Pennsylvania, across northwestern New Jersey, central New York State and extending across central New England could pick up 0.10"-0.25" freezing rain with some higher amounts. Upstate New York and northern New England will likely pick up a moderate snowfall (4" or more) with some higher amounts, especially across northern Vermont, northern New Hampshire and northern Maine. Precipitation amounts from New Philadelphia to Boston will generally average 0.50"-1.50". The heaviest amounts are likely to the north and west of those cities.

Another storm could bring moderate to significant snow to parts of the Northeast on Thursday into Friday. This is the kind of storm that could have a swath of 3"-6" snows with locally higher amounts. Some accumulation is likely in Newark and New York City before a changeover to sleet and then rain takes place.

Afterward, a pattern change will unfold as the Arctic Oscillation goes positive. Starting on or just after February 20, a period of warmer than normal temperatures is likely in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas.

Today, many areas in the Plains States, including Texas, experienced a additional record and near record cold temperatures from what has been the coldest air mass in three decades in many parts of that region.

Minimum temperatures through 7 pm EST included:

Amarillo, TX: -11° (old record: -6°, 1895) ***Coldest since February 1, 1951***
Austin: 8° (old record: 20°, 1909) ***Coldest since December 23, 1989***
Broken Bow, NE: -37° (old record: -14°, 2007)
Brownsville: 28°
Corpus Christi: 17° (old record: 25°, 1895) ***Coldest since December 24, 1989***
Dallas: 4° (old record: 15°, 1909) ***Coldest since December 23, 1989***
Denver: -16°
Galveston: 21° (old record: 24°, 1909)
Houston: 16° (old record: 18°, 1905) ***Coldest since December 24, 1989***
Kansas City: -10° (old record: -6°, 1936)
Lincoln, NE: -16° (old record: -11°, 1978)
Lubbock, TX: 0° (old record: 8°, 1951) ***Coldest since December 23, 1989***
North Platte, NE: -29° (old record: -23°, 1881) ***Coldest since December 22, 1989***
Oklahoma City: -6° (old record: 7°, 1909)
Omaha: -15° (old record: -12°, 1936)
Ord, NE: -35° (old record: -14°, 2007)
Shreveport: 16° (old record: 21°, 1905)
Tulsa: -3° (old record: 3°, 1905)
Whitehorse, YT: -32° (old record: -31°, 1954)

Record low maximum temperatures included:

Austin: 25° (old record: 38°, 1909)
Corpus Christi: 31° (old record: 33°, 1895)
Dallas: 14° (old record: 31°, 1909) ***Coldest since December 22, 1989***
Houston: 25° (old record: 32°, 1909)
Lincoln, NE: -4° (old record: -1°, 1936)***Coldest since February 2, 1996***
Lubbock, TX: 14° (old record: 30°, 1978)
Oklahoma City: 4° (old record: 17°, 1909) ***Coldest since December 22, 1989***
Omaha: -3° (old record: -1°, 1936) ***Coldest since February 2, 1996)
Tulsa: 5° (old record: 17°, 1909) ***Coldest since December 24, 1983***

Additional records are likely through tomorrow morning. Dallas will likely see temperatures fall to the single digits and likely the coldest levels on record so late in the season tomorrow morning.

Select Record Low Minimum Temperatures for February 16:
Amarillo: -4°, 1895
Austin: 20°, 1903
Brownsville: 22°, 1895
Corpus Christi: 20°, 1895
Dallas: 12°, 1903
Galveston: 19°, 1895
Houston: 13°, 1895
Lubbock: 13°, 1979

Tomorrow, Dallas could tie the record for most consecutive days with minimum temperatures below 10°. The record of three consecutive days was set during January 11-13, 1912 when the temperature fell to 9°, 1°, and 7° respectively. Records for the Dallas-Fort Worth area go back to September 1898.

The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is rocketing from its lowest levels in nearly eight years. The latest guidance suggests that the AO will likely reach positive values as early as tomorrow. The last time the AO was positive was December 25, 2020 when the AO was +0.226. Whether this development will mark the end of the prolonged period of blocking that has prevailed throughout winter 2020-21 or a temporary break, remains to be seen.

A dramatic increase in the AO has sometimes coincided with storminess. Therefore, the February 14-24 period might offer a window of opportunity for a meaningful storm. That window of opportunity could extend through the end of February should blocking persist or return.

Since 1950, there were 11 cases during the January 16-February 28 timeframe that saw the AO rise at least 3 sigma from a minimum value of -4.000 or below within a 7-day period. Four cases saw a major snowstorm in parts of the Middle Atlantic or New England regions within 3 weeks of the AO's reaching its minimum value. The dates of the AO's minimum value for those four cases with storm dates in parentheses are January 25, 1958 (February 14-17, 1958 NESIS: 6.25), January 19, 1969 (February 8-10, 1969 NESIS: 3.51), February 15, 1969 (February 22-28, 1969 NESIS: 4.29), and January 16, 2016 (January 22-24, 2016 NESIS: 7.66).

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around February 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.00°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through meteorological winter.

The SOI was +6.72 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.389 today

On February 14 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.880 (RMM). The February 13-adjusted amplitude was 2.725.

Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely into the closing days of February.  

The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Since January 1, New York City has picked up 23.3" snow.

Winters that saw December receive 10" or more snow, less than 10" in January, and then 10" or more in February, saw measurable snowfall in March or April in 83% of cases. Winter 2009-2010 was the exception where only a trace of snow was recorded. This group of winters saw 6" or more snow during the March-April period in 50% of the cases. All said, it is more likely than not that there will be measurable snowfall after February.  

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 81% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal February. February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 33.0° (2.3° below normal).

 

[the_other_guy]

2 hours ago, Brett said:

We have had a pretty amazing run since Feb 1. It seems it may be winding down next week all in all a real good run for snow the last three weeks

Yeah we cant get worked up over a mild march.

 

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

I wonder however, we had blocking in December. Was that from an SSWE also? Plus ensembles bring back the negative NAO EOM. Perhaps it's a background state now? 

More than likely, the SSW was the result of the blocking. Sometimes, SSW’s cause blocking. At other times, they occur in response to strong and persistent blocking, as happened during winter 2009-10.

[bluewave]

17 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

More than likely, the SSW was the result of the blocking. Sometimes, SSW’s cause blocking. At other times, they occur in response to strong and persistent blocking, as happened during winter 2009-10.

Very impressive run before the rapid rise this week.

 

[MJO812]

56 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Yeah we cant get worked up over a mild march.

 

Who said its going to be mild ?

[North and West]

Yeah we cant get worked up over a mild march.
 

Worked up? It would be nice if it were tranquil and not muddy. I’m ready to get out and work in my yard with this guy.




.

[MJO812]

3 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

It's east based but it's there with the EPO. Perhaps we get another shot.

Pv pays a visit on the GFS in the long range

[WarrenCtyWx]

1 hour ago, jfklganyc said:

Yeah we cant get worked up over a mild march.

 

As long as it's actually pleasant and not just 40s and dreary.

[SnoSki14]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Pv pays a visit on the GFS in the long range

The teleconnections say the opposite. It'll likely be AN though not a torch. 

[gmendevils8204]

1 hour ago, North and West said:

Worked up? It would be nice if it were tranquil and not muddy. I’m ready to get out and work in my yard with this guy.




.

Handsome fella!  

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Probably in 1895 and/or 1899, but I am not aware of documentation.

I'm hearing there's also a good possibility of lake effect snow from Lake Pontchartrain?  Wow, I guess the last time that happened was also in 1899?

Don this is much rarer than what happened on Xmas in 2004 isn't it?

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Very impressive run before the rapid rise this week.

 

we still have time to reach number 1

 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

It was the snowiest first week of February for NYC. But the unprecedented AO rise really cut back on the 20-30 “ some of the the models were showing for mid to late February. I also think that the MJO not going into phase 8 cut down on our mid to late February snow potential. It combined with the steep AO rise and record warm SSTs to amp up SE ridge. This is the fastest rise of a -5 AO back to positive. The other 3  Februaries with -5 maintained the -AO much longer in 2010, 1978, and 1969. Those years featured the MJO 7 going into phase 8. So it’s very odd to see the MJO loop back to phase 6. We saw the MJO avoiding phase 8 in recent winters also.

Still no real explanation for the rapid rise in the AO.  Was it because of the MJO?

 

[donsutherland1]

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I'm hearing there's also a good possibility of lake effect snow from Lake Pontchartrain?  Wow, I guess the last time that happened was also in 1899?

Don this is much rarer than what happened on Xmas in 2004 isn't it?

 

This was a rare—probably once-in-a-lifetime—event. That so much notable weather was occurring across the CONUS from a foot of snow in Seattle to the extreme Arctic outbreak/snow in Texas to the heavy lake effect-enhanced snow affecting parts of the Great Lakes Region makes this a very special period in terms of weather history.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

This was a rare—probably once-in-a-lifetime—event. That so much notable weather was occurring across the CONUS from a foot of snow in Seattle to the extreme Arctic outbreak/snow in Texas to the heavy lake effect-enhanced snow affecting parts of the Great Lakes Region makes this a very special period in terms of weather history.

I feel like this is just as rare as NYC hitting -10.

So maybe there is hope one day of that happening too.

 

[Rtd208]

Picked up 0.49" of rain so far today.

Current temp 37

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 29degs.(24/34), or -6.0.

The -6 for this morning of 10 and fewer days ago, has missed by 50 Degrees Plus.      Models suck.

Still 3" to 7" on Thurs/Fri, maybe less switch to rain.       Actually less LE to work with------but almost all of it turned to snow on the models now.     Watch out for a Page One Replate.

47*!!!(99%RH) FOG <0.2 miles.      Up from 37* at Midnight.

42*(variable) at 8am, Fog improving.    47* (variable) at 11am, with sunny  breaks for the the last 90mins.           48* at Noon.        49* at 1pm.        50* at 1:30pm.          51* at  3:30pm.         47* at 5pm.         44*  by 6pm.       34* by 10:30pm.

[EastonSN+]

Tight squeeze.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

Through 7 am, precipitation totals included: Bridgeport: 0.77”; Islip” 0.60”; New York City: 0.82”; Newark: 0.83”; Philadelphia: 0.75”; Poughkeepsie: 0.45” (0.25” freezing rain); and, White Plains: 0.63”.

Elsewhere, the wild weather continued. At Chicago’s O’Hare Airport 7.5” snow fell, but at Midway Airport, a lake-enhanced 17.7” was measured. Albany Park in Chicago also picked up 16.0” snow. This morning, the temperature dipped to -1° at Dallas. That was the coldest reading there since the temperature also reached -1° on December 23, 1989. It is only the fourth subzero low on record since record keeping began in September 1898.

Rain will move away from the region this morning and the clouds will break. It will be unseasonably mild Temperatures will likely top out in the middle and upper 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 47°

Newark: 48°

Philadelphia: 50°

Tomorrow will be fair and cold before a storm brings accumulating snow to the region on Thursday.

In the long-range, there reasonable consensus among the ensembles that a sustained milder pattern will develop around or just after February 20.

[SACRUS]

What a map for historical reference.

 

 

[donsutherland1]

6 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

What a map for historical reference.

 

 

Oklahoma City reached -12 this morning. The only time it was at least as cold was the historic February 1899 Arctic blast.

[SACRUS]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Much smaller geographic footprint to this Arctic outbreak compared to December 1989. We were in the single digits the last time DFW went below 0°. Now Long Island is in the 50s this morning instead.

 

Believe the core of the cold was also centered a few hundred miles east of this event. 1989 was truly impressive before it warmed up in early Jan 1990.

[Rtd208]

Picked up 0.81" of rain so far today.

Current temp 38

[wdrag]

Regarding the national unprecedented in recent history event. From the NWS, a quick check of the top 10 national coverage's since 2005 per Greg Carbin WPC. 

---

 

As many have noted on Twitter and elsewhere over the past 24 hours, the CONUS area covered by Winter Storm Warnings is quite remarkable!

 

That was about 1.6 million square kilometers with active warnings or, put another way, the area currently covered by Winter Storm Warnings over the CONUS is larger than the land area of Alaska. That is crazy and puts the events of these days into some amazing perspective.

 

I wrote a script this afternoon to download all the warning shapefiles from the Iowa Mesonet and take a look at the area covered by Winter Storm Warnings (technically Winter Storm Watches that are upgraded to Warnings) from November 2005 through February 14, 2021.

 

For the 2,158 days with Winter Storm Warnings in effect back to November 2005, the average area covered on any day with active Winter Storm Warnings is about 77,000 km^2, or about the size of South Carolina. The median warning area size is about double that, 142,000 km^2, or about the size of Illinois (using land area sizes from here).

 

The standard deviation of the daily warning size distribution is 170,000 km^2. Thus, the current area covered by Winter Storm Warnings is about 8 sigma above the long-term mean area of Winter Storm Warnings covered on any day with active winter warnings over the past 17 years.

 

Here are the top 10 WS Warning Days since Nov. 2005, based on warning areal coverage: 

 

 Date          WSW Area (km^2)

1) Feb. 14, 2021: 1,558,699

2) Feb. 01, 2011: 1,182,685

3) Dec. 29, 2012: 1,099,780

4) Nov. 26, 2019: 1,091,375

5) Dec. 01, 2007: 1,057,336

6) Mar. 02, 2014:   991,728

7) Feb. 20, 2011:   974,886

8) Dec. 30, 2010:   954,343

9) Dec. 24, 2009:   901,811

10)Dec, 01, 2018:   889,846

 

--
Greg Carbin | Chief, Forecast Operations Branch
NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Weather Prediction Center

 

[Snowzone]

34 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Oklahoma City reached -12 this morning. The only time it was at least as cold was the historic February 1899 Arctic blast.

I do not think it would be an exaggeration to say that this Artic outbreak has been extraordinary. I know there have been similar Artic outbreaks in the past, like the above mentioned. However; unlike the current Artic outbreak, the February 1899 Artic blast, extended to the east coast. As did the Artic outbreak in January 1893 and I believe January 1977 as well. So it made me wonder if there has ever been a similar Artic blast; like the current one, located this far south and far enough east to include the Ohio River valley, yet not reach the east coast? 

[donsutherland1]

23 minutes ago, Snowzone said:

I do not think it would be an exaggeration to say that this Artic outbreak has been extraordinary. I know there have been similar Artic outbreaks in the past, like the above mentioned. However; unlike the current Artic outbreak, the February 1899 Artic blast, extended to the east coast. As did the Artic outbreak in January 1893 and I believe January 1977 as well. So it made me wonder if there has ever been a similar Artic blast; like the current one, located this far south and far enough east to include the Ohio River valley, yet not reach the east coast? 

It was exceptional. On January 12, 1974, the temperature fell to -33 at Lincoln, NE. The Arctic air mass never made it to the East Coast.

[Cfa]

OKC is in plant hardiness zone 7a with an average annual minimum temperature between 0F to 5F, -14F is zone 5b, nearly zone 5a (-15 to -20), almost a full 20 degrees colder than their average annual minimum.

NYC, LGA, JFK, EWR, and ISP are in hardiness zone 7b, with an average annual minimum temperature between 5F and 10F. A cold blast of that magnitude would put us around -10F.

[bluewave]

This was the 9th longest streak under 50° at Islip before the 50s today.
 

Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature < 50 
for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Run Length	Ending Date
Period of record: 1963-09-05 to 2021-02-15
1	79	1968-03-10
2	62	2011-02-13
3	57	1977-02-15
4	54	2004-02-27
5	49	2015-03-08
6	48	1990-01-15
7	47	1985-02-18
8	45	1969-03-17
9	44	2021-02-15
-	44	1981-01-26