February 2021

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will see some patches of light freezing rain or freezing drizzle in the morning before a storm spreads precipitation into the region during the afternoon or evening. Philadelphia, Newark, and New Jersey will likely see mainly rain. Well north and west of those cities, a period of snow, sleet, and freezing rain is likely. An area running from northeastern Pennsylvania, across northwestern New Jersey, central New York State and extending across central New England could pick up 0.25"-0.50" freezing rain with some higher amounts. Upstate New York and northern New England will likely pick up a moderate snowfall (4" or more). Precipitation amounts from Philadelphia to Boston will generally average 0.50"-1.50". The heaviest amounts are likely to the north and west of those cities.

Another storm could bring moderate to significant snow to parts of central and upstate New York into central and northern New England on Thursday into Friday. There could be some accumulation even in Newark and New York City before a changeover to sleet and then rain takes place.

Afterward, a change in the pattern will unfold as the Arctic Oscillation goes positive. On or just after February 20, a period of warmer than normal temperatures is likely in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas.

Parts of Canada and the Plains States, including Texas, experienced a continuation of record and near record cold temperatures from what has been the coldest air mass since December 1989 and February 1994 in parts of that region. Minimum temperatures through 6 pm EST included:

Amarillo, TX: -1°
Casper: -20° (old record: -14°, 2010)
Dallas: 13° (old record: 15°, 1905, 1909, and 1936)
Denver: -10° (tied record set in 1903)
Lubbock, TX: 5° (old record: 12°, 2004)
Norway House, MB: -37° (old record: -31°, 2008)
Winnipeg: -31°

Record low maximum temperatures included:

Amarillo: 8° (old record: 12°, 1895)
Austin: 30° (old record: 33°, 1951)
Brownsville: 41° (old record: 44°, 1951)
Chicago: 4° (old record: 8°, 1879 and 1943)
Dallas: 22° (old record: 27°, 1951)
Kansas City: 4° (old record: 7°, 1936)
Lubbock, TX: 14° (old record: 25°, 2007) ***Tied February Record set on February 2, 2011***
Oklahoma City: 12° (old record: 20°, 1951)
San Antonio: 30° (tied record set in 1895)
St. Louis: 8° (old record: 19°, 1875 and 1943)

Additional records are likely through Tuesday morning. Dallas will likely see temperatures fall to the single digits and likely the coldest levels on record so late in the season tomorrow morning. On Monday, the high temperature at Dallas could also challenge that city's record for the lowest maximum temperature on record. That record is 12°, which was set on February 12, 1899.

Select Record Low Maximum Temperatures for February 15:

Amarillo: 6°, 1895
Austin: 38°, 1909
Brownsville: 50°, 2007
Corpus Christi: 33°, 1895
Dallas: 31°, 1909
Houston: 32°, 1909
Lubbock: 30°, 1978

Select Record Low Minimum Temperatures for February 15:
Amarillo: -6°, 1895
Austin: 20°, 1909
Brownsville: 25°, 1895
Corpus Christi: 25°, 1895
Dallas: 15°, 1909
Houston: 18°, 1905
Lubbock: 8°, 1951

The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is now rebounding from its lowest levels in nearly eight years. It is forecast to rise sharply in coming days. The latest guidance suggests that the AO will likely reach positive values for the first time since December 25, 2020 when the AO was +0.226. Whether this development will mark the end of the prolonged period of blocking that has prevailed throughout winter 2020-21, or a temporary break, remains to be seen.

A dramatic increase in the AO has sometimes coincided with storminess. Therefore, the February 14-24 period might offer a window of opportunity for a meaningful storm. That window of opportunity could extend through the end of February should blocking persist or return.

Since 1950, there were 11 cases during the January 16-February 28 timeframe that saw the AO rise at least 3 sigma from a minimum value of -4.000 or below within a 7-day period. Four cases saw a major snowstorm in parts of the Middle Atlantic or New England regions within 3 weeks of the AO's reaching its minimum value. The dates of the AO's minimum value for those four cases with storm dates in parentheses are January 25, 1958 (February 14-17, 1958 NESIS: 6.25), January 19, 1969 (February 8-10, 1969 NESIS: 3.51), February 15, 1969 (February 22-28, 1969 NESIS: 4.29), and January 16, 2016 (January 22-24, 2016 NESIS: 7.66).

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around February 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.00°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through meteorological winter.

The SOI was +5.00 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -2.131 today

On February 13 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.724 (RMM). The February 12-adjusted amplitude was 2.611.

Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely through the end of the third week of February.  

The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Since January 1, New York City has picked up 23.3" snow.

Winters that saw December receive 10" or more snow, less than 10" in January, and then 10" or more in February, saw measurable snowfall in March or April in 83% of cases. Winter 2009-2010 was the exception where only a trace of snow was recorded. This group of winters saw 6" or more snow during the March-April period in 50% of the cases. All said, it is more likely than not that there will be measurable snowfall after February.  

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 81% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal February. February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 32.7° (2.6° below normal).

 

[bluewave]

While this winter is the snowiest in recent years, the storm track has still been tucked in near the coast. Newark has been ahead of snowfall at Islip for the last 2 out of 3 seasons with these closer to the coast storm tracks.  Islip had the snowfall lead from 2013 to 2018 with more traditional benchmark tracks favoring eastern areas. It looks like the record SSTs off the coast have favored more ridging to the east during storm time. So the baroclinic zone has been further west.
 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Islip Snowfall	Newark Snowfall
2021-04-30	27.8	39.2
2020-04-30	6.8	6.9
2019-04-30	12.8	22.0
2018-04-30	65.9	39.4
2017-04-30	39.3	30.0
2016-04-30	41.4	32.8
2015-04-30	63.7	46.4
2014-04-30	63.7	61.1
2013-04-30	46.9	29.5
2012-04-30	4.7	8.8
2011-04-30	55.3	68.2
2010-04-30	53.8	47.9

 

 

 

[MJO812]

Vortex comes back in the US. People said winter is over lol

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

While this winter is the snowiest in recent years, the storm track has still been tucked in near the coast. Newark has been ahead of snowfall at Islip for the last 2 out of 3 seasons with these closer to the coast storm tracks.  Islip had the snowfall lead from 2013 to 2018 with more traditional benchmark tracks favoring eastern areas. It looks like the record SSTs off the coast have favored more ridging to the east during storm time. So the baroclinic zone has been further west.
 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Islip Snowfall	Newark Snowfall
2021-04-30	27.8	39.2
2020-04-30	6.8	6.9
2019-04-30	12.8	22.0
2018-04-30	65.9	39.4
2017-04-30	39.3	30.0
2016-04-30	41.4	32.8
2015-04-30	63.7	46.4
2014-04-30	63.7	61.1
2013-04-30	46.9	29.5
2012-04-30	4.7	8.8
2011-04-30	55.3	68.2
2010-04-30	53.8	47.9

 

 

 

This seems like  a more normal track for storms to take,  I think if you averaged out all the different tracks storms could take this would be the most common for storms that affect our area...  I'm not sure if the traditional benchmark tracks are "normal" as Islip's average annual snowfall is less than Newark's.  The types of big bombs that we have gotten with those tracks are something you'd expect once a decade or so, not every year.

We've got a high percentage of snow with these storms so it's all good.

 

 

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Vortex comes back in the US. People said winter is over lol

The first week of March, I told you to watch out for it lol

 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 29degs.(24/34), or -5.5.

Thurs/Fri looks like 3"-7" of snow to start on the main models and then a self-cleaning changeover to rain.

By the end of the month, the GFS is 30 degrees colder than the GEFS.

34*(64%RH) here at 6am/7am., overcast.     38* by Noon.       39* briefly at 12:30pm.      36* by 3pm.

[gmendevils8204]

5 hours ago, EpicHECS said:

March and April can be absolutely brutal in the northeast. The coldest intrusions at that point are always east of where they are now in Jan and Feb. 

Absolutely. We’ve had some incredible storms during that time period and I can remember Yankees opening day at the Stadium being played in snow a couple times...1996 and 2003 in particular. The nights can be frigid too.

[bluewave]

6 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

This seems like  a more normal track for storms to take,  I think if you averaged out all the different tracks storms could take this would be the most common for storms that affect our area...  I'm not sure if the traditional benchmark tracks are "normal" as Islip's average annual snowfall is less than Newark's.  The types of big bombs that we have gotten with those tracks are something you'd expect once a decade or so, not every year.

We've got a high percentage of snow with these storms so it's all good.

 

 

 

Long Island also averaged more snow than Newark from 95-96 to 08-09. I used BNL snowfall since there were several years of ISP missing data  Newark averaged 25.5 inches over those years to 35.3 at BNL. There were no years over that stretch that EWR had 10” more than BNL in a single season. The only seasons that Newark had a 10” or more lead over Suffolk were 20-21 so far, 18-19, and 10-11. So big tucked in snowfall tracks like this year have been uncommon since 95-96.

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Islip Snowfall	Newark Snowfall
2021-04-30	27.8	39.2
2020-04-30	6.8	6.9
2019-04-30	12.8	22.0
2018-04-30	65.9	39.4
2017-04-30	39.3	30.0
2016-04-30	41.4	32.8
2015-04-30	63.7	46.4
2014-04-30	63.7	61.1
2013-04-30	46.9	29.5
2012-04-30	4.7	8.8
2011-04-30	55.3	68.2
2010-04-30	53.8	47.9

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Newark Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30	BNL  LI Snowfall
2009-04-30	27.1	43
2008-04-30	14.6	11.5
2007-04-30	16.5	9.5
2006-04-30	37.9	30.5
2005-04-30	43.4	78.5
2004-04-30	47.8	60.2
2003-04-30	53.1	62.1
2002-04-30	3.6	5.5
2001-04-30	39.3	51.2
2000-04-30	18.4	14.0
1999-04-30	12.8	23.0
1998-04-30	6.9	4.5
1997-04-30	16.3	18.0
1996-04-30	78.4	90.7

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

A record cold air mass moved into Texas yesterday producing widespread snow. Snowfall amounts included: Amarillo: 4.1”; Austin: 1.0”; Dallas: 4.0” (old record: 3.0”, 1951); and, Lubbock: 1.6”. Widespread record cold was present this morning.

In the Pacific Northwest, the three-day snowstorm came to an end in Seattle with rain. The final accumulation was 12.4”,.

At 8:40 am, some patches of freezing rain moving across southeast New York State. It will be mostly cloudy with some pockets of freezing drizzle and drizzle. Steadier precipitation will begin moving into the region this afternoon or this evening. An area running east-northeastward from northeast Pennsylvania to central New England will likely pick up 0.25”-0.50” freezing rain with locally higher amounts. A general 0.50”-1.50” precipitation is likely from Philadelphia to Boston. Temperatures will likely top out in the middle 30s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 37°

Newark: 36°

Philadelphia: 38°

Precipitation will end tomorrow and it will be noticeably milder for a time in parts of the region.

In the long-range, there reasonable consensus among the ensembles that a sustained milder pattern will develop around or just after February 20.

[forkyfork]

i wonder what a jan 2015 setup would result in with these SST's 

[Snowzone]

Stratosphere is cooling and PV is consolidating and pulling north... certainly not favorable for sustaining snow and cold in the NYC Metro-/Mid-Atlantic beyond February. 

[gmendevils8204]

4 minutes ago, Snowzone said:

Stratosphere is cooling and PV is consolidating and pulling north... certainly not favorable for sustaining snow and cold in the NYC Metro-/Mid-Atlantic beyond February. 

I honestly wouldn't hate it.  We had some nice snow events.  I'm all-in for an early spring.  Let's get to the nicer weather and get people outside again.  Might help in dealing with the virus as the vaccine rollout continues.

[SnoSki14]

21 minutes ago, Snowzone said:

Stratosphere is cooling and PV is consolidating and pulling north... certainly not favorable for sustaining snow and cold in the NYC Metro-/Mid-Atlantic beyond February. 

A warm outcome is definitely likely but weird things happen during seasonal transition periods. 

So a random March snowstorm wouldn't surprise me even if it's mixed in with warm weather all around.

[Snowzone]

Just now, gmendevils8204 said:

I honestly wouldn't hate it.  We had some nice snow events.  I'm all-in for an early spring.  Let's get to the nicer weather and get people outside again.  Might help in dealing with the virus as the vaccine rollout continues.

Having this week look so promising only several days ago, but not verify is a bit disappointing. I was just hoping the stratospheric cool down would not have started until early March. Of the 38.7" of snow I received, 28" fell between Jan 31 - Feb 7. I understand your point's about an early spring, I was just hoping our active, colder pattern would last longer than 2 weeks. 

[Snowzone]

14 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

A warm outcome is definitely likely but weird things happen during seasonal transition periods. 

So a random March snowstorm wouldn't surprise me even if it's mixed in with warm weather all around.

This is true.

[White Gorilla]

51 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

A warm outcome is definitely likely but weird things happen during seasonal transition periods. 

So a random March snowstorm wouldn't surprise me even if it's mixed in with warm weather all around.

Higher probability of random weird with shorter wavelengths 

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, bluewave said:

Long Island also averaged more snow than Newark from 95-96 to 08-09. I used BNL snowfall since there were several years of ISP missing data  Newark averaged 25.5 inches over those years to 35.3 at BNL. There were no years over that stretch that EWR had 10” more than BNL in a single season. The only seasons that Newark had a 10” or more lead over Suffolk were 20-21 so far, 18-19, and 10-11. So big tucked in snowfall tracks like this year have been uncommon since 95-96.

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Islip Snowfall	Newark Snowfall
2021-04-30	27.8	39.2
2020-04-30	6.8	6.9
2019-04-30	12.8	22.0
2018-04-30	65.9	39.4
2017-04-30	39.3	30.0
2016-04-30	41.4	32.8
2015-04-30	63.7	46.4
2014-04-30	63.7	61.1
2013-04-30	46.9	29.5
2012-04-30	4.7	8.8
2011-04-30	55.3	68.2
2010-04-30	53.8	47.9

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Newark Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30	BNL  LI Snowfall
2009-04-30	27.1	43
2008-04-30	14.6	11.5
2007-04-30	16.5	9.5
2006-04-30	37.9	30.5
2005-04-30	43.4	78.5
2004-04-30	47.8	60.2
2003-04-30	53.1	62.1
2002-04-30	3.6	5.5
2001-04-30	39.3	51.2
2000-04-30	18.4	14.0
1999-04-30	12.8	23.0
1998-04-30	6.9	4.5
1997-04-30	16.3	18.0
1996-04-30	78.4	90.7

I remember when I first came across BNL snowfall data back in 1995-96 I thought it was on an entirely different island lol.  It's so different from JFK, BNL has much more of a New England climate and does much better in storms that also benefit New England the most.

But if you go over the entire climate record, say back to the 60s or however far back records go at both locations, it probably evens out, dont you think?  A 35" average is amazing, much closer to Boston than it is to NYC.  I bet JFK's average is like 25" if that.

 

[LibertyBell]

13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The latest EPS weeklies have a milder pattern during late February. They have more of a +EPO -PNA pattern. 

Feb 15 -22

Feb 22 -Mar 1

 

 

what do you think of this talk of a PV insertion in early March and a return to much colder weather, Chris?

FWIW looks like we have two snow events to go through before the current pattern breaks, the one on Thursday and then one more next Monday.  NYC should get over 40" on the season with those and JFK will be somewhere in the 30s"

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

i wonder what a jan 2015 setup would result in with these SST's 

Arent these abnormally warm SSTs associated with snow bombs?  I mean a few years ago we were talking about the January snow bomb happening because of abnormally warm SST so why would they result in a more tucked in track now vs a few years ago?

 

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Morning thoughts...

A record cold air mass moved into Texas yesterday producing widespread snow. Snowfall amounts included: Amarillo: 4.1”; Austin: 1.0”; Dallas: 4.0” (old record: 3.0”, 1951); and, Lubbock: 1.6”. Widespread record cold was present this morning.

In the Pacific Northwest, the three-day snowstorm came to an end in Seattle with rain. The final accumulation was 12.4”,.

At 8:40 am, some patches of freezing rain moving across southeast New York State. It will be mostly cloudy with some pockets of freezing drizzle and drizzle. Steadier precipitation will begin moving into the region this afternoon or this evening. An area running east-northeastward from northeast Pennsylvania to central New England will likely pick up 0.25”-0.50” freezing rain with locally higher amounts. A general 0.50”-1.50” precipitation is likely from Philadelphia to Boston. Temperatures will likely top out in the middle 30s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 37°

Newark: 36°

Philadelphia: 38°

Precipitation will end tomorrow and it will be noticeably milder for a time in parts of the region.

In the long-range, there reasonable consensus among the ensembles that a sustained milder pattern will develop around or just after February 20.

I heard the Dallas area was getting "lake effect snow"!  Has that ever happened before?

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, Brett said:

As much as I love snow by March 15 I am pretty much done with it at that point if it snows it is gone the next day and it is usually heavy wet slop

I love early April snow.  It doesn't stay on the ground very long so doesn't inconvenience travel and looks really pretty on the trees!

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, gmendevils8204 said:

Absolutely. We’ve had some incredible storms during that time period and I can remember Yankees opening day at the Stadium being played in snow a couple times...1996 and 2003 in particular. The nights can be frigid too.

They were my favorite kinds of snowstorms- playing baseball in the snow in April 1996 was a classic! We had a 6" snowstorm in April just a couple of years ago, I think it was 2018?

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

It looks like the PV consolidates near Alaska in late February which is mild for us. While the EPS has Greenland Blocking to start March, the Pacific looks unfavorable with the lingering PV near Alaska. We would need some EPO and PNA improvement to get the -AO to work out for us. Otherwise, the pattern will keep amping up the SE Ridge.

Feb 22 -Mar 1

Mar 1-8

 

 

 

This season has had an amazing amount of Greenland blocking- do you think this might be the case for several years since this looks like a phase change has occurred?

 

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It looks like the PV consolidates near Alaska in late February which is mild for us. While the EPS has Greenland Blocking to start March, the Pacific looks unfavorable with the lingering PV near Alaska. We would need some EPO and PNA improvement to get the -AO to work out for us. Otherwise, the pattern will keep amping up the SE Ridge.

Feb 22 -Mar 1

Mar 1-8

 

 

 

I find this time period interesting. Negative EPO and Negative NAO fighting the negative PNA.

[EastonSN+]

[Allsnow]

Thank the ssw for all this cold and snow across the country. If we didn’t get the second disruption this winter would have been over months ago 

[EastonSN+]

10 minutes ago, Brett said:

Isn’t what that is showing is positive EPO? Alaska looks cold

Alaska is warm in my screen shot. SE ridge is there but mitigated. Will definitely be cold nearby.

[EastonSN+]

7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Thank the ssw for all this cold and snow across the country. If we didn’t get the second disruption this winter would have been over months ago 

I wonder however, we had blocking in December. Was that from an SSWE also? Plus ensembles bring back the negative NAO EOM. Perhaps it's a background state now? 

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, Brett said:

We have had a pretty amazing run since Feb 1. It seems it may be winding down next week all in all a real good run for snow the last three weeks

It actually started on Jan 31.  It annoys me to no end that February gets screwed out of 2 inches of snow and January gets 2 inches of snow it didn't deserve because it has an extra day it shouldn't have.  I never understood why February was limited to 28/29 days....why the hate for this awesome month?

My calendar that I came up with would be much more balanced and February would get 2 extra days, one from January and one from March!

My calendar:

January.....30 days

February...... 30 days (31 days in leap years)

March......... 30 days

April......... 30 days

May......... 31 days

June........ 30 days

July......... 31 days

August....... 31 days

September...... 30 days

October...... 31 days

November...... 30 days

December...... 31 days

Much easier to remember!

 

 

 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I wonder however, we had blocking in December. Was that from an SSWE also? Plus ensembles bring back the negative NAO EOM. Perhaps it's a background state now? 

background state NAO -1 just like the early 2000s!