February 2021

[donsutherland1]

32 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

the 100 hour snowstorm?  was that all rain here, Don?

Mostly rain. NYC saw 1.3”, JFK received 1.6”, and LGA picked up 2.0”.

[Rtd208]

Current temp is 28/DP 13

[donsutherland1]

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

April snowstorm!  I think that happened in 1964 too'?

March 29.

[HVSnowLover]

Euro is a bit south and colder Tue and more amped and warmer for the late week storm, there seems to be some correlation, we probably actually want Tuesday as amped as possible.  

[EastonSN+]

Just now, HVSnowLover said:

Euro is a bit south and colder Tue and more amped and warmer for the late week storm, there seems to be some correlation, we probably actually want Tuesday as amped as possible.  

Looks like we get more snow from Thursday storm on 12z euro than 0z.

[HVSnowLover]

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Looks like we get more snow from Thursday storm on 12z euro than 0z.

Maybe but it's front end snow that will be washed away if that low cuts to the west.

[SnoSki14]

7 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Euro is a bit south and colder Tue and more amped and warmer for the late week storm, there seems to be some correlation, we probably actually want Tuesday as amped as possible.  

We'll still have to watch where these highs set up. A high closer to us would def result in much colder surface temps. 

Models will have difficulty with so many disturbances. I'm leaning towards a cold rain for both Tuesday (mid 30s) & Thursday (near 40) that'll get soaked into the pack. 

Thursday will def trend much warmer if the big gfs phase is correct...think 50s.

Icing issues probable for NW zones.

[NorthShoreWx]

21 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

And pizza rats

 

I went against the grain and put the weather channel on during the 2/1 storm.  There was a live shot with one of the TWC woman standing in one of the squares in Manhattan and very clearly a rat scurrying around on top of the snow right behind her.  Great stuff and I wondered if anyone else noticed it.

[bluewave]

57 minutes ago, uncle W said:

the same reason millions of Americans drive...

 

when you look back at this winter it was a winter with a -5sd ao and had a major blizzard...comes with territory...as the block eases we are missing the big storm I envisioned..,there is still time left for another big one...after the ao gets slightly positive it could get negative again for some March madness...TWT...

This winter is really doing its own thing. The big snowstorm in December came before the lowest AO reading of the month. No measurable snowfall through most of January with the AO dropping  below -3 several times. Then we had the snowiest first week of February in NYC just before the -AO dropped below -5. So there have been a number of competing influences on our pattern.

[NorthShoreWx]

28 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Mostly rain. NYC saw 1.3”, JFK received 1.6”, and LGA picked up 2.0”.

Note: ISP snowfall for 2/26/69 is suspect:

STATION NAME	YEAR	MN	DY	DTOTPCPN		DTOTSNFL		DSNWDPTH		DMXARTMP		DMNARTMP
Bridgehampton	1969	2	24	2.43		6.0		6		36		31
Bridgehampton	1969	2	26	0.24		1.5		6		35		30
Hempstead-Garden City	1969	2	23	0.08		0.5		8		37		33
Hempstead-Garden City	1969	2	24	0.38		2.1		7		39		33
Hempstead-Garden City	1969	2	26	0.04		0.5		7		36		29
Hempstead-Garden City	1969	2	27	0.04		0.5		6		37		29
Islip LI Macarthur AP	1969	2	23	T		0.5		0		38		32
Islip LI Macarthur AP	1969	2	24	0.11		1.0		2		35		32
Islip LI Macarthur AP	1969	2	25	0.04		T		1		40		32
Islip LI Macarthur AP	1969	2	26	0.15		11.0		0		34		29
Islip LI Macarthur AP	1969	2	27	0.01		T		1		33		28
Mineola	1969	2	23	0.23		0.5		5		35		32
Mineola	1969	2	24	0.16		1.5		3		38		32
Mineola	1969	2	26	0.04		0.4		0	T	33		29
New York JFK Intl AP	1969	2	23	0.37		1.4		0.005		35		32
New York JFK Intl AP	1969	2	24	0.08		0.2		0.005		37		32
New York JFK Intl AP	1969	2	25	0.005		0.0		0		41		33
New York JFK Intl AP	1969	2	26	0.005		0.0		0.005		33		30
New York JFK Intl AP	1969	2	27	0.005		0.0		0.005		35		28
New York La Guardia AP	1969	2	23	0.15		1.4		0.005		35		33
New York La Guardia AP	1969	2	24	0.04		0.3		1		39		33
New York La Guardia AP	1969	2	25	0.005		0.0		0.005		41		33
New York La Guardia AP	1969	2	26	0.01		0.1		0.005		34		31
New York La Guardia AP	1969	2	27	0.02		0.2		0.005		34		28
NY City Central Park	1969	2	23	0.41		1.0		5		35		34
NY City Central Park	1969	2	24	0.07		0.3		5		41		34
NY City Central Park	1969	2	25	0.005		0.0		5		44		34
NY City Central Park	1969	2	26	0.005		0.0		2		35		30
NY City Central Park	1969	2	27	0.005		0.0		2		36		28
Patchogue 2N	1969	2	23	0.005		0.0		2		40		30
Patchogue 2N	1969	2	24	0.8		3.0		4		36		32
Patchogue 2N	1969	2	26	0.09		0.5		2		37		26
Patchogue 2N	1969	2	27	0.005		0.0		2		35		27
Riverhead Research Farm	1969	2	24	1.21		6.0		8		36		31
Riverhead Research Farm	1969	2	26	0.06		0.5		5		35		28
Setauket Strong	1969	2	24	0.7		3.0		-99999	M	35		33
Westhamptn Gabreski AP	1969	2	24	1.33		0.4		M		34		32
Westhamptn Gabreski AP	1969	2	26	0.08		0.1		M		33		29
SUMMARY:
Bridgehampton	7.5
Hempstead-Garden City	3.6
Islip LI Macarthur AP	12.5	*
Mineola	2.4
New York JFK Intl AP	1.6
New York La Guardia AP	2.0
NY City Central Park	1.3
Patchogue 2N	3.5
Riverhead Research Farm	6.5
Setauket Strong	3.0
Westhamptn Gabreski AP	0.5

[HVSnowLover]

17 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

We'll still have to watch where these highs set up. A high closer to us would def result in much colder surface temps. 

Models will have difficulty with so many disturbances. I'm leaning towards a cold rain for both Tuesday (mid 30s) & Thursday (near 40) that'll get soaked into the pack. 

Thursday will def trend much warmer if the big gfs phase is correct...think 50s.

Icing issues probable for NW zones.

Yes if GFS is right with the track its 50s but right now would lean Euro/CMC which would be more like wintry mix to 40 degree rain. 

[Snowzone]

42 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I remember you said that this was like an early 70s winter....snow+ice+cold but just like back then, we didn't fully realize the potential that was there.

 

I think the ice storm you might be referencing in the early 70s actually took place December 16 - 17, 1973. 

[NorthShoreWx]

36 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Mostly rain. NYC saw 1.3”, JFK received 1.6”, and LGA picked up 2.0”.

Worth noting that the first week of March 1969 featured 2 additional snowfalls that totaled 5.6" in Central Park, but 10 - 15" across Suffolk County.  Bridgehamton recorded a snowdepth of 13" on 3/7/69.  It was definitely a period that favored areas to the NE of NYC as you mentioned.

[Snowzone]

Just now, Snowzone said:

I think the ice storm you might be referencing in the early 70s actually took place December 16 - 17, 1973. 

I actually remember this storm. I was 12. It started as light snow and turned to ZR in NYC during the evening. The temps stayed in the upper 20s. In Queens and Nassau the ice measured around 1" in diameter. Long Island had many homes without power. There was also a sharp pressure temperature over Long Island. It went up to 55 degrees on Montauk, while it was 36 in Islip and 25 in Central Park. The temperature dropped on the second day, (Dec. 17) and went down to the upper teens late that evening.

[donsutherland1]

46 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Note: ISP snowfall for 2/26/69 is suspect:

STATION NAME	YEAR	MN	DY	DTOTPCPN		DTOTSNFL		DSNWDPTH		DMXARTMP		DMNARTMP
Bridgehampton	1969	2	24	2.43		6.0		6		36		31
Bridgehampton	1969	2	26	0.24		1.5		6		35		30
Hempstead-Garden City	1969	2	23	0.08		0.5		8		37		33
Hempstead-Garden City	1969	2	24	0.38		2.1		7		39		33
Hempstead-Garden City	1969	2	26	0.04		0.5		7		36		29
Hempstead-Garden City	1969	2	27	0.04		0.5		6		37		29
Islip LI Macarthur AP	1969	2	23	T		0.5		0		38		32
Islip LI Macarthur AP	1969	2	24	0.11		1.0		2		35		32
Islip LI Macarthur AP	1969	2	25	0.04		T		1		40		32
Islip LI Macarthur AP	1969	2	26	0.15		11.0		0		34		29
Islip LI Macarthur AP	1969	2	27	0.01		T		1		33		28
Mineola	1969	2	23	0.23		0.5		5		35		32
Mineola	1969	2	24	0.16		1.5		3		38		32
Mineola	1969	2	26	0.04		0.4		0	T	33		29
New York JFK Intl AP	1969	2	23	0.37		1.4		0.005		35		32
New York JFK Intl AP	1969	2	24	0.08		0.2		0.005		37		32
New York JFK Intl AP	1969	2	25	0.005		0.0		0		41		33
New York JFK Intl AP	1969	2	26	0.005		0.0		0.005		33		30
New York JFK Intl AP	1969	2	27	0.005		0.0		0.005		35		28
New York La Guardia AP	1969	2	23	0.15		1.4		0.005		35		33
New York La Guardia AP	1969	2	24	0.04		0.3		1		39		33
New York La Guardia AP	1969	2	25	0.005		0.0		0.005		41		33
New York La Guardia AP	1969	2	26	0.01		0.1		0.005		34		31
New York La Guardia AP	1969	2	27	0.02		0.2		0.005		34		28
NY City Central Park	1969	2	23	0.41		1.0		5		35		34
NY City Central Park	1969	2	24	0.07		0.3		5		41		34
NY City Central Park	1969	2	25	0.005		0.0		5		44		34
NY City Central Park	1969	2	26	0.005		0.0		2		35		30
NY City Central Park	1969	2	27	0.005		0.0		2		36		28
Patchogue 2N	1969	2	23	0.005		0.0		2		40		30
Patchogue 2N	1969	2	24	0.8		3.0		4		36		32
Patchogue 2N	1969	2	26	0.09		0.5		2		37		26
Patchogue 2N	1969	2	27	0.005		0.0		2		35		27
Riverhead Research Farm	1969	2	24	1.21		6.0		8		36		31
Riverhead Research Farm	1969	2	26	0.06		0.5		5		35		28
Setauket Strong	1969	2	24	0.7		3.0		-99999	M	35		33
Westhamptn Gabreski AP	1969	2	24	1.33		0.4		M		34		32
Westhamptn Gabreski AP	1969	2	26	0.08		0.1		M		33		29
SUMMARY:
Bridgehampton	7.5
Hempstead-Garden City	3.6
Islip LI Macarthur AP	12.5	*
Mineola	2.4
New York JFK Intl AP	1.6
New York La Guardia AP	2.0
NY City Central Park	1.3
Patchogue 2N	3.5
Riverhead Research Farm	6.5
Setauket Strong	3.0
Westhamptn Gabreski AP	0.5

That’s why I did not cite it. On one day,(2/24), ISP was shown to have received 11.0” snow on 0.11” precipitation. The correct figure almost certainly is 1.1”, as snow cover rose from 0” to 1”.

[BxEngine]

Back to the weather...

[eduggs]

Talk of past storms is usually a terrible sign for upcoming weather. Honestly a warm and early spring would be nice this year. This might be the first year of my life that I've ever wished for it. I guess I'm still on the fence about it.

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Talk of past storms is usually a terrible sign for upcoming weather. Honestly a warm and early spring would be nice this year. This might be the first year of my life that I've ever wished for it. I guess I'm still on the fence about it.

AO looks go go back negative at the end of the month.  I dont think we are done with snow just yet. 

[eduggs]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

AO looks go go back negative at the end of the month.  I dont think we are done with snow just yet. 

I don't find the forecasted indices to be especially predictive of wintry weather. By the time we get near late month, the AO may no longer be forecast to go negative. So even though there is a modest correlation between AO, PNA, NAO etc states and snowfall, our ability to predict these states far in advance is limited. There are several more weeks of winter left. Let's sew how the model ensembles look as we get closer. Everything is still on the table. 

[MJO812]

14 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I don't find the forecasted indices to be especially predictive of wintry weather. By the time we get near late month, the AO may no longer be forecast to go negative. So even though there is a modest correlation between AO, PNA, NAO etc states and snowfall, our ability to predict these states far in advance is limited. There are several more weeks of winter left. Let's sew how the model ensembles look as we get closer. Everything is still on the table. 

I heard that the NAO is the most important in March with the short wave lengths.

[gravitylover]

3 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Worth noting that the first week of March 1969 featured 2 additional snowfalls that totaled 5.6" in Central Park, but 10 - 15" across Suffolk County.  Bridgehamton recorded a snowdepth of 13" on 3/7/69.  It was definitely a period that favored areas to the NE of NYC as you mentioned.

Those first 5 months or so of 1969 were incredible in New England. I think that's the year that the snow depth in Tuckerman Ravine reached 100 feet and they were skiing right through the summer and into the next year. 

3 hours ago, Snowzone said:

I think the ice storm you might be referencing in the early 70s actually took place December 16 - 17, 1973. 

I distinctly remember this at 7 years old in Oceanside where I grew up. I have hazy memories of earlier snowstorms but this ice storm knocked out our power and made life difficult and kind of scary to a little kid listening to trees exploding outside the window at night. 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, eduggs said:

I don't find the forecasted indices to be especially predictive of wintry weather. By the time we get near late month, the AO may no longer be forecast to go negative. So even though there is a modest correlation between AO, PNA, NAO etc states and snowfall, our ability to predict these states far in advance is limited. There are several more weeks of winter left. Let's sew how the model ensembles look as we get closer. Everything is still on the table. 

It depends on how much predictability one is looking for. The statistical evidence is fairly clear that snowfall is more frequent during negative AO states in the New York City area (and also Middle Atlantic Region).

For all days in December, January, February, and March from January 1, 1950 through January 31, 2021, there were 4,628 days (53.6% days) when the AO was negative, including 2,945 (34.1% days) when it was -1.000 or below. There were 4,008 days (46.4% days) when the AO was positive, including 2,337 days (27.0% days) with values of +1.000 or above. On three days, the AO was 0.000.

Below is the share of total January-March and December snowfall for New York City:

AO of -1.000 or below: 41.9% of snowfall (34.1% days): Overrepresented
AO-: 61.6% of snowfall (53.6% days): Overrepresented
AO+: 38.4% of snowfall (46.4% days): Underrepresented
AO of +1.000 or above: 20.1% of snowfall (27.0% days): Underrepresented.

In addition, days with measurable snowfall were 28% more frequent when the AO was negative than when it was positive and 42% more frequent at values of -1.000 or below than when it was positive. In terms of daily snowfall of 4" or more, those outcomes were 48% more frequent when the AO was negative than when it was positive and 58% more frequent when the AO was -1.000 or below than when it was positive. If one compares AO cases of -1.000 or below vs. AO cases of +1.000 or above, days with measurable snowfall and days with 4" or more snowfall were 43% and 75% more frequent respectively.

For a more recent illustration, for the last five February cases (through February 13, 2021), there were 31 days (31.6% days) during which the AO was negative and 67 days (68.4% days) when it was positive. During the AO- days, there was 25.6" snow (89.2% snow) and 3.1" snow (10.8% snow) when the AO was positive. Even excluding February 2021 on account of the big storm, 58.7% of the snow was recorded during the 21.1% of days when the AO was negative while 41.3% of the snowfall was recorded during the 78.9% of days when the AO was positive.

In short, a negative AO, especially one at -1.000 or below, provides a favorable large-scale state for snowfall overall in the Middle Atlantic Region. However, the synoptic details matter. The placement of synoptic features and their evolution occur within the large-scale hemispheric background state and are, at least in part, influenced by the AO.

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, Snowzone said:

I actually remember this storm. I was 12. It started as light snow and turned to ZR in NYC during the evening. The temps stayed in the upper 20s. In Queens and Nassau the ice measured around 1" in diameter. Long Island had many homes without power. There was also a sharp pressure temperature over Long Island. It went up to 55 degrees on Montauk, while it was 36 in Islip and 25 in Central Park. The temperature dropped on the second day, (Dec. 17) and went down to the upper teens late that evening.

wow sounds even worse than Jan 1994- how long did the storm last?

Got any numbers for JFK?  It got to 30/31 here in SW Nassau but didn't make it to freezing but about 5 miles to my east it did.  The western part of the south shore "jackpots" in these situations it seems.  This event sounds very similar.  I think VD 2007 had the same boundary

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, eduggs said:

I don't find the forecasted indices to be especially predictive of wintry weather. By the time we get near late month, the AO may no longer be forecast to go negative. So even though there is a modest correlation between AO, PNA, NAO etc states and snowfall, our ability to predict these states far in advance is limited. There are several more weeks of winter left. Let's sew how the model ensembles look as we get closer. Everything is still on the table. 

I feel the same way about ENSO- both our best and worst winters have been everything from la nina to el nino.

 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Worth noting that the first week of March 1969 featured 2 additional snowfalls that totaled 5.6" in Central Park, but 10 - 15" across Suffolk County.  Bridgehamton recorded a snowdepth of 13" on 3/7/69.  It was definitely a period that favored areas to the NE of NYC as you mentioned.

wasnt there a winter in the 1900s where the Hamptons had like 50 inches of snow in one storm while NYC had like 20 inches.  Sure the Hamptons jackpotted but NYC didn't do so badly.  I'm sure there is some centenarian around somewhere still bitter over that winter though lol.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

AO looks go go back negative at the end of the month.  I dont think we are done with snow just yet. 

using statistics alone it's a bad idea to say we're done with winter before March.  We get small events up to 4" even in bad patterns.

For those people who dont like snow- move to Florida,  NY aint for you.  It's as simple as that.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

It depends on how much predictability one is looking for. The statistical evidence is fairly clear that snowfall is more frequent during negative AO states in the New York City area (and also Middle Atlantic Region).

For all days in December, January, February, and March from January 1, 1950 through January 31, 2021, there were 4,628 days (53.6% days) when the AO was negative, including 2,945 (34.1% days) when it was -1.000 or below. There were 4,008 days (46.4% days) when the AO was positive, including 2,337 days (27.0% days) with values of +1.000 or above. On three days, the AO was 0.000.

Below is the share of total January-March and December snowfall for New York City:

AO of -1.000 or below: 41.9% of snowfall (34.1% days): Overrepresented
AO-: 61.6% of snowfall (53.6% days): Overrepresented
AO+: 38.4% of snowfall (46.4% days): Underrepresented
AO of +1.000 or above: 20.1% of snowfall (27.0% days): Underrepresented.

In addition, days with measurable snowfall were 28% more frequent when the AO was negative than when it was positive and 42% more frequent at values of -1.000 or below than when it was positive. In terms of daily snowfall of 4" or more, those outcomes were 48% more frequent when the AO was negative than when it was positive and 58% more frequent when the AO was -1.000 or below than when it was positive. If one compares AO cases of -1.000 or below vs. AO cases of +1.000 or above, days with measurable snowfall and days with 4" or more snowfall were 43% and 75% more frequent respectively.

For a more recent illustration, for the last five February cases (through February 13, 2021), there were 31 days (31.6% days) during which the AO was negative and 67 days (68.4% days) when it was positive. During the AO- days, there was 25.6" snow (89.2% snow) and 3.1" snow (10.8% snow) when the AO was positive. Even excluding February 2021 on account of the big storm, 58.7% of the snow was recorded during the 21.1% of days when the AO was negative while 41.3% of the snowfall was recorded during the 78.9% of days when the AO was positive.

In short, a negative AO, especially one at -1.000 or below, provides a favorable large-scale state for snowfall overall in the Middle Atlantic Region. However, the synoptic details matter. The placement of synoptic features and their evolution occur within the large-scale hemispheric background state and are, at least in part, influenced by the AO.

Don, statistically speaking, what is the likelihood of a 6 inch or greater snowfall following a -5 SD AO?  Timescale doesn't matter but it needs to be after not before (for obvious reasons lol.)

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

Those first 5 months or so of 1969 were incredible in New England. I think that's the year that the snow depth in Tuckerman Ravine reached 100 feet and they were skiing right through the summer and into the next year. 

I distinctly remember this at 7 years old in Oceanside where I grew up. I have hazy memories of earlier snowstorms but this ice storm knocked out our power and made life difficult and kind of scary to a little kid listening to trees exploding outside the window at night. 

what year did you leave Oceanside? I take it it was before the Jan 1994 ice storm so you cant make a comparison for there?

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

I heard that the NAO is the most important in March with the short wave lengths.

look for something in the first week of March

[uncle W]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Don, statistically speaking, what is the likelihood of a 6 inch or greater snowfall following a -5 SD AO?  Timescale doesn't matter but it needs to be after not before (for obvious reasons lol.)

 

# dates..................-AO.......weather...

1...01/15/1977.....-7.433...biggest snowfall of the season followed right after and below zero temps four days later...very cold winter...

5...03/05/1970.....-6.365...temp drops to 20 for the coldest of the month...Easter snowstorm 3/29...very cold winter...

6...01/19/1985.....-6.226...cold wave with below zero temps a day later...biggest snowstorm that winter on 2/5-6 of 5.7"...4.1" on 1/18...

10 11/18/1959.....-5.896...6-14" snowstorm on 12/22...14.5" snowstorm March 3-4th...

11 12/21/2009.....-5.821...snowstorm 12/19-20...Feb snowstorms...

14 03/20/2013.....-5.688...snowstorm 3/18...11" snowstorm in Feb...to late in the season...

18 01/03/2010.....-5.533...two snowstorms in Feb...

28 02/05/1978.....-5.291...blizzard 2/6-7...

30 02/13/1969.....-5.282...snowstorm 2/9-10...

31 12/18/2010.....-5.265...blizzard 12/26-27 and 1/26-27...

39 01/28/1966.....-5.130...KU snowstorm 1/29-30...7" in NYC...coldest temp of the winter...1/28...

42 10/18/2002.....-5.098...early Dec snowstorm...Big Feb snowstorm...

45 01/21/1963.....-5.010... 4 degrees 1/24...4-5" of snow 1/26...biggest of the season...very cold winter...