EastonSN+ Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 19 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Eps is more amped than 0z for Sunday Thanks. Seems like the theme for the big 2 storms / this winter is tucked but still cold enough for 99% snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Morning thoughts... Today will be mostly cloudy. Additional snow showers and periods of light snow with possible light accumulations are likely across parts of the region. Parts of northeastern Pennsylvania into southern New York State could pick up several inches of snow. Temperatures will likely reach the mainly the middle 30s across much of the region. Likely high temperatures include: New York City (Central Park): 35° Newark: 37° Philadelphia: 36° Clouds could break in parts of the region tomorrow. In the extended range, the EPS ensemble members are clustered around February 7-8 for possible measurable snow. 30-Day Verification: Period ended January 31 New York City (Central Park): Average daily forecast: 39.8° Average temperature: 39.5° Average error: 1.3° Newark: Average daily forecast: 41.3° Average temperature: 41.0° Average error: 1.5° Philadelphia: Average daily forecast: 42.2° Average temperature: 41.8° Average error: 1.4° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 28 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Thanks. Seems like the theme for the big 2 storms / this winter is tucked but still cold enough for 99% snow. I also noticed that Two snowstorms where the low was tucked near SNJ. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 This could be our first La Niña winter in 30 years when NYC finishes with a cold departure in February and it’s the snowiest month. Even the 1995-1996 winter couldn’t pull off this feat. While it had a cold departure in February, the snowiest winter month was January. Just goes to show how competing influences during the last 3 winters overrode ENSO climatology. NYC La Ninas last 30 years Temperature departures Snowfall Season.....Dec....Jan....Feb 20-21......+1.7....+2.2.....? ................10.5.....2.1.....14.8...so far 17-18......-2.5......-0.9......+6.7 ................7.7......11.2......4.9 16-17......+0.8....+5.4.....+6.3 ................3.2.......7.9......9.4 11-12......+5.8....+4.7.....+5.6 .................0.0.....4.3........0.2 10-11......-4.7.....-2.9......+0.7 ...............20.1.....36.0.....4.8 08-09......+0.6.....-4.7.....+1.4 .................6.0......9.0......4.3 07-08.......+4.9.....+3.9....+0.5 .................2.9........T.........9.0 05-06.......-2.2.......+8.3.....+0.4 ..................9.7.......2.0......26.9 00-01......-6.4......+1.0....+0.6 ................13.4......8.3......9.5 99-00......+2.4......-1.3.....+3.5 ..................T.........9.5.......5.2 98-99.......+5.6.....+1.3.....+3.5 .................2.0........1.5.......4.7 95-96.......-5.1......-2.1.......-1.5 .................11.5......26.1......21.2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Chances look really good for more snow 1st half of Feb and likely beyond. Pretty ideal west-based NAO block on ensembles with blocking in the Arctic and up to Alaska. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 11 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Chances look really good for more snow 1st half of Feb and likely beyond. Pretty ideal west-based NAO block on ensembles with blocking in the Arctic and up to Alaska. 40 inches is looking good for NYC for the winter 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Well here is your 40" and then some. GFS not so hot, literally. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 We’ll have multiple shots as the block retrogrades and then a HECS opportunity once the block diminishes for Archambault event feb 10-17. The retrograded block forces low heights out over 50/50 region with potential split flow underneath -epo. This month could be epic if things break right 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 this was the 15th wettest 10" snowfall on record for Central Park NYC... 4.43"...17.5"...02/04-07/1920...mid 20's to low 30's...snow/ice/sleet for over 72 hours... 3.17"...20.9"...02/25-26/2010...mid 30's to upper 20's...wet snow some mix... 3.11"...14.5"...03/01-02/1914...upper 30's to upper teens...started as rain/sleet/ice... 2.68"...12.5"...02/20/1921........mid 30's to low 20's...started as rain/sleet/ice... 2.62"...17.4"...02/03-04/1961...upper 20's to low 30's...changed to sleet/rain for a time... 2.52"...10.6"...03/13-14/1993...low 30's to upper 30's...changed to sleet and rain... 2.40"...26.4"...12/26-27/1947...mid 20's to low 30's...all snow 2.32"...27.5"...01/22-23/2016...mid 20's...all snow 2.22"...10.4"...02/03-04/1926...mid 20's to 30...mixed with sleet and ice... 2.16"...20.2"...01/07-08/1996...low teens to low 20's...all snow... 2.10"...21.0"...03/12-14/1888...upper 30's to single digits...started as rain/sleet... 2.08"...18.1"...03/07-08/1941...low 20's to low 30's...wet snow ending as a mix... 2.08"...12.5"...02/13-14/2014...mid 20's to mid 30's to mid 20's...changed to rain for 12 hours... 2.06"...19.0"...01/26-27/2011...low 30's to mid 30's to upper 20's...changed to rain for a time... 1.94"...11.5"...01/02/1925........low and mid 20's...mixed with sleet/ice... 1.94"...17.2"...01/31-2/2/2021 mid 20's to low 30's...mixed with sleet at times... 1.87"...12.0"...03/15-16/1896...upper 20's to low 30's...ended as mix and rain... 1.86"...26.9"...02/11-12/2006...upper 20's...all snow... 1.82"...15.3"...02/09-10/1969...mid 30's to mid 20's... 1.78"...19.8"...02/16-17/2003...single digits to mid 20's... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 5 hours ago, bluewave said: This could be our first La Niña winter in 30 years when NYC finishes with a cold departure in February and it’s the snowiest month. Even the 1995-1996 winter couldn’t pull off this feat. While it had a cold departure in February, the snowiest winter month was January. Just goes to show how competing influences during the last 3 winters overrode ENSO climatology. NYC La Ninas last 30 years Temperature departures Snowfall Season.....Dec....Jan....Feb 20-21......+1.7....+2.2.....? ................10.5.....2.1.....14.8...so far 17-18......-2.5......-0.9......+6.7 ................7.7......11.2......4.9 16-17......+0.8....+5.4.....+6.3 ................3.2.......7.9......9.4 11-12......+5.8....+4.7.....+5.6 .................0.0.....4.3........0.2 10-11......-4.7.....-2.9......+0.7 ...............20.1.....36.0.....4.8 08-09......+0.6.....-4.7.....+1.4 .................6.0......9.0......4.3 07-08.......+4.9.....+3.9....+0.5 .................2.9........T.........9.0 05-06.......-2.2.......+8.3.....+0.4 ..................9.7.......2.0......26.9 00-01......-6.4......+1.0....+0.6 ................13.4......8.3......9.5 99-00......+2.4......-1.3.....+3.5 ..................T.........9.5.......5.2 98-99.......+5.6.....+1.3.....+3.5 .................2.0........1.5.......4.7 95-96.......-5.1......-2.1.......-1.5 .................11.5......26.1......21.2 the 1970's had three winters in four years that were la nina with Feb being the coldest snowiest month...1971-72...1973-74...1974-75... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 38 minutes ago, uncle W said: the 1970's had three winters in four years that were la nina with Feb being the coldest snowiest month...1971-72...1973-74...1974-75... Yeah, that was in the era of much colder Februaries. When we get cold these days in February, it really stands out. The coldest recent February was 2015 with the weak El Niño. Our only February below 0° was during the Super El Niño in 2016. Those 1970s La Niñas were during our long 10”+ snowstorm drought from 1970 to 1977. This winter we already have 2. NYC February average temperature 1970-1980....32.4° 2010-2020....36.0° 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Topic started for the Friday (2/5) more minor (but higher confidence) event for some in the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 The 18Z ICON likes it for inland people 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said: The 18Z ICON likes it for inland people That could happen but with cold air ahead of it, a gorgeous west-based Greenland block and blocking extending from Alaska through the Arctic we are def in the game. Our more coastal pattern this year is also a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 7 hours ago, MJO812 said: 40 inches is looking good for NYC for the winter We're at 47" for the year here so far after this storm. Getting light accumulating snow as we speak. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 We are due for a cold snowy February. This will be it 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 It has been snowing for about 52 hrs non stop. Haven't seen that in a long time, or ever that I can remember. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Following the January 1996 blizzard, New York Times columnist Russell Baker wrote in the January 9, 1996 edition of that newspaper: "Where are the snows of yesteryear?" asked the poet. We can now tell him. The weekend blizzard, like the snows of yesteryear, not only was wonderfully copious but also, like those storms of childhood, brought adventure for almost everybody. Baker continued, "Thomas Mann in 'The Magic Mountain' observed that time slows down when one escapes the normal order and that life becomes more interesting and, because time has slowed, longer." Just over 25 years later, those sentiments ring true again. A large part of northeastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, southeastern New York, including New York City, and southwestern Connecticut are covered by a thick mantle of snow. Although the joy that this most recent snowstorm brought to those who are open to nature's beauty might not prolong one's lifespan, it surely will make life just a little more rewarding. After the snow-starved winter of 2019-20, the region has already witnessed two big snowstorms. If the 0z and 12z runs of the European Model are reasonably accurate, perhaps there will be another such storm in the near-term. While such an outcome is not yet certain, it is among the possibilities that lie ahead. Somewhat milder air will return to the region in coming days, but its stay won't be long. Another shot of cold air is possible during or after the weekend. Moreover, EPS ensemble members are increasingly clustering around February 7-8 for another possible snow event. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.71°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.03°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through meteorological winter. The SOI was +9.17 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was not available. On February 1 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 2.070 (RMM). The January 31-adjusted amplitude was 2.174. Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely through the middle of the second week of February. The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Since January 1, New York City has picked up 17.3" snow. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Wait, snowman started the Feb thread?? I'm going to get a new shovel. 2 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 32 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Wait, snowman started the Feb thread?? I'm going to get a new shovel. He knew deep down the cold and blocking from the ssw was coming this month 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 another blizzard inbound thanks to snowman making the february thread. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 21 minutes ago, Allsnow said: He knew deep down the cold and blocking from the ssw was coming this month It does look like there's a big time AO tank on the horizon. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, EasternLI said: It does look like there's a big time AO tank on the horizon. Haha. Ssw ftw 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Haha. Ssw ftw the best is still to come if the ao tanks lower than what its been... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 well this is pretty damn impressive 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 18 hours ago, MJO812 said: I also noticed that Two snowstorms where the low was tucked near SNJ. if the Dec 1992 event had happened this season it likely would've dropped 20 inches here lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 10 hours ago, bluewave said: Yeah, that was in the era of much colder Februaries. When we get cold these days in February, it really stands out. The coldest recent February was 2015 with the weak El Niño. Our only February below 0° was during the Super El Niño in 2016. Those 1970s La Niñas were during our long 10”+ snowstorm drought from 1970 to 1977. This winter we already have 2. NYC February average temperature 1970-1980....32.4° 2010-2020....36.0° we're also in a much wetter climate now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 3, 2021 Author Share Posted February 3, 2021 8 hours ago, Allsnow said: He knew deep down the cold and blocking from the ssw was coming this month Famous last words ;-) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 29degs.(24/34)., or -4.0. No snow for the next 5 days. Nothing major showing yet after that time either. The storm that just passed was 2.0"+14.8"+0.4" = 17.2". My area in CI was no where near this much. Barometer still in the 29.40"---29.47" for over a day I think. Still at the latter now. EURO is 10 degrees colder than the other models. Say repeated single digit lows to the teens on the CMC and GFS. 30*(75%RH) here at 6am. 32* by 9am. 35* by 10am. 36* by Noon. 37* by 3pm. Briefly was 38*. 35* by 7pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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