bluewave Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 We are back to 20 days or more of 1”+ snow cover like 16-17 and 17-18. But still well behind the 50+ day years like 10-11, 13-14, and 14-15. I can still remember the snow piles that looked like a mini mountain range near the LB Boardwalk in 2011. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Number of Days Snow Depth >= 1 Oct 1 to Apr 30 Missing Count 2021-04-30 20 77 2020-04-30 2 0 2019-04-30 12 0 2018-04-30 20 0 2017-04-30 20 0 2016-04-30 11 0 2015-04-30 55 0 2014-04-30 59 0 2013-04-30 11 0 2012-04-30 3 0 2011-04-30 57 0 2010-04-30 25 0 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 48 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: You're the same people that complain when we don’t have snow. We haven’t had any appreciable snow on the ground in two years. It has been on the ground for a whopping 2 weeks and you want it gone. In a week or two it will be gone for 10 months (sans a wet March snow) and you can enjoy the record dewpoints that the cement jungle provides us these days. For the record, there is never anywhere to park in Brooklyn...that is why people who want a car lifestyle eventually leave Brooklyn We nearly lost our minds during the winter of 10-11 in Boston when we had 72" in six weeks and we had a 2 year-old. Sprung for a garage spot in advance of the next winter (11-12) Carless in Manhattan near a park is the way to enjoy it now. Let it keep piling up. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Couple things I learned were not true. Long periods of blocking do not always end in a good snowstorm. Models sometimes are correct in rushing the break down of a pattern. I am all for melting and warmer weather. However I still want 6 more to get to 40. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 16 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Couple things I learned were not true. Long periods of blocking do not always end in a good snowstorm. Models sometimes are correct in rushing the break down of a pattern. I am all for melting and warmer weather. However I still want 6 more to get to 40. Yep I thought we were going to get a big snowstorm once I saw the AO rising. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Yep I thought we were going to get a big snowstorm once I saw the AO rising. This winter is a win already with getting to average. However it looks like I may have seen my last inch of snow looking at the LR guidance after 2 days ago it looked like deep winter into March. The way it ended is what bothers me. So abruptly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: This winter is a win already with getting to average. However it looks like I may have seen my last inch of snow looking at the LR guidance after 2 days ago it looked like deep winter into March. The way it ended is what bothers me. So abruptly. So why couldn't it go back to a wintry look. You can't automatically assume the warm scenario will win out. There's still every reason to believe we get more snow late Feb or March. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 19 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: This winter is a win already with getting to average. However it looks like I may have seen my last inch of snow looking at the LR guidance after 2 days ago it looked like deep winter into March. The way it ended is what bothers me. So abruptly. Its only Feb 13 We have a while to go Hopefully we will cash in 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowzone Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: Couple things I learned were not true. Long periods of blocking do not always end in a good snowstorm. Models sometimes are correct in rushing the break down of a pattern. I am all for melting and warmer weather. However I still want 6 more to get to 40. Thus far, I have received 38.7" of snow. My average for the entire winter is 34". So I can't complain. Especially when just 14 days ago I had just 10.7". My concern with the upcoming ice events is that I still have a good deal of snow on my roof, and having it encased in heavy ice is a big concern. Keep in mind that we have solar panels on our roof and safely removing it from our roof is certainly not going to be an easy task. Yet with all that said, I do not want warmer weather just yet. Maybe just enough to lighten the weight of snow on my roof. Then, bring on more snow and cold through about March 10th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Roadtrip to Dallas ? This is where the PV ended up. Models had it over the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 After showing 23" of snow about 6 runs ago, the GFS has been Zippo-Ing it: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Guidance for the next 7 days has really gone to shit. It's hard to see how we snow in any of these setups. 2 okay storms and one great one locally... 6", 19", 5" and then a few nuisance events. It could have been a little better, but it could also have been a lot worse. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Yep I thought we were going to get a big snowstorm once I saw the AO rising. Sometimes, such storms favor New England e.g., the late February 1969 snowstorm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 15 hours ago, uncle W said: NYC got 9.1" of snow in Dec 66...23.6" in Feb 67...Newark had 13" in Dec and 25" in Feb...1961-62 had a 10" snowfall in Dec and 13" more fell in Feb in small doses... Uncle, how many times has NYC had three double digit snowfalls in a single season? I know it happened in 2009-10 and almost happened in 2010-11 and we missed by the closest of margins in 1960-61 (but I think JFK did have three double digit snowstorms that season.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 9 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Sometimes, such storms favor New England e.g., the late February 1969 snowstorm. the 100 hour snowstorm? was that all rain here, Don? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 12 minutes ago, eduggs said: Guidance for the next 7 days has really gone to shit. It's hard to see how we snow in any of these setups. 2 okay storms and one great one locally... 6", 19", 5" and then a few nuisance events. It could have been a little better, but it could also have been a lot worse. three 6"+ events here this season, cant really ask for more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 13 minutes ago, CIK62 said: After showing 23" of snow about 6 runs ago, the GFS has been Zippo-Ing it: is that thing showing a big cold wave to start March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: three 6"+ events here this season, cant really ask for more. This could have been a pretty sweet month. Two weeks of snow cover and multiple stacked events at the coast is still nothing to complain about, but if modeling had been correct about 2/15-2/25 this month would have been one to remember. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 2 hours ago, bluewave said: This gets back to the competing influences theme of the last few winters. In recent years, our biggest snowstorms have come after the lowest -AO readings. It’s unusual for the biggest snowstorm to come over a week before the -5 AO reading. The earliest February snowstorm before a -5 or lower reading was 4 days in 1969. This year the storm occurred more than a week before the -5 AO. The two events in 2010 were 4 to 12 days later. The February 1978 blizzard arrived right at the date of the lowest -AO. NYC 1-31 to 2-2...2021....17.8.......-5 or lower AO on 2-10 and 2-11 2-10...2010...10.0........-5 AO....2-6 2-26...2010....20.9.......-5 AO....2-14 2-6.....1978....17.7...... -5 AO....2-5 2-9.....1969....15.3.......-5 AO....2-13 whats the record for how long after a -5 AO the big snowstorm comes? Maybe we still have a chance at the end of the month or the first week of March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 3 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: This winter is a win already with getting to average. However it looks like I may have seen my last inch of snow looking at the LR guidance after 2 days ago it looked like deep winter into March. The way it ended is what bothers me. So abruptly. last inch of snow is a bit harsh I sincerely doubt that. You might not get 10 more inches of snow, but it would be extremely weird not to get 4-6 at some point, even in a bad pattern. Don showed the statistics support that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: So why couldn't it go back to a wintry look. You can't automatically assume the warm scenario will win out. There's still every reason to believe we get more snow late Feb or March. yeah I mean we got 4 inches of snow in a bad pattern at the tail end of 2010-11. 4 inch snowfalls are rather routine in bad patterns, thats how we got most of our snowfall in the late 80s and early 90s during some of the worst patterns this area has EVER seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 3 hours ago, MJO812 said: I'm dumb for staying in NYC no you're dumb for having a car- why do you want a pollution causing dirty fossil using POS car anyway? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: three 6"+ events here this season, cant really ask for more. Yeah that's pretty solid. But not everyone got three big events. And we could always ask for more To me this winter so far has been all about the big one we got. That was a great storm. Nothing else was particularly memorable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, LibertyBell said: no you're dumb for having a car- why do you want a pollution causing dirty fossil using POS car anyway? the same reason millions of Americans drive... 2 hours ago, bluewave said: This gets back to the competing influences theme of the last few winters. In recent years, our biggest snowstorms have come after the lowest -AO readings. It’s unusual for the biggest snowstorm to come over a week before the -5 AO reading. The earliest February snowstorm before a -5 or lower reading was 4 days in 1969. This year the storm occurred more than a week before the -5 AO. The two events in 2010 were 4 to 12 days later. The February 1978 blizzard arrived right at the date of the lowest -AO. NYC 1-31 to 2-2...2021....17.8.......-5 or lower AO on 2-10 and 2-11 2-10...2010...10.0........-5 AO....2-6 2-26...2010....20.9.......-5 AO....2-14 2-6.....1978....17.7...... -5 AO....2-5 2-9.....1969....15.3.......-5 AO....2-13 when you look back at this winter it was a winter with a -5sd ao and had a major blizzard...comes with territory...as the block eases we are missing the big storm I envisioned..,there is still time left for another big one...after the ao gets slightly positive it could get negative again for some March madness...TWT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I know lol but in a densely populated city it's probably not the best idea. Out in the suburbs it's a different story. It's much easier to get around NYC on mass transit. I can make it in from western LI to Manhattan in 45 minutes on the LIRR, in a car it takes over an hour. You posted some excellent numbers about -5 SD, I remember you stated that we either get a big snowstorm (I assume this means double digits totals?) or extreme cold (I assume this means single digit temps or colder?) Do you consider that this verified....would you count the storm at the beginning of February as being associated with the extreme - AO even though the storm preceded it by more than a week? If not perhaps it could happen in the first week of March? I count it...In March 1970 the ao dropped to -6sd...it took four weeks before NYC saw a snowstorm...the Easter 1970 storm... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, uncle W said: I count it...In March 1970 the ao dropped to -6sd...it took four weeks before NYC saw a snowstorm...the Easter 1970 storm... I remember you said that this was like an early 70s winter....snow+ice+cold but just like back then, we didn't fully realize the potential that was there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 28 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Uncle, how many times has NYC had three double digit snowfalls in a single season? I know it happened in 2009-10 and almost happened in 2010-11 and we missed by the closest of margins in 1960-61 (but I think JFK did have three double digit snowstorms that season.) NYC only 2009-10 had three 10" storms...but 1960-61 had three with one being 9.9"...Newark had three in 1957-58 and 1960-61... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, uncle W said: I count it...In March 1970 the ao dropped to -6sd...it took four weeks before NYC saw a snowstorm...the Easter 1970 storm... April snowstorm! I think that happened in 1964 too'? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, uncle W said: NYC only 2009-10 had three 10" storms...but 1960-61 had three with one being 9.9"...Newark had three in 1957-58 and 1960-61... I think JFK had it both in 2009-10 and 1960-61, not sure on that though as I'm not sure if JFK got to double digits in the middle storm in Jan 1961. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I remember you said that this was like an early 70s winter....snow+ice+cold but just like back then, we didn't fully realize the potential that was there. 1973-74 was one of the analogs that had the snowiest coldest month in Feb...that winter had its share of ice also... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, uncle W said: 1973-74 was one of the analogs that had the snowiest coldest month in Feb...that winter had its share of ice also... Yes that was comparable to the ice storm in Jan 1994 from what I've read Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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