bluewave Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 NYC has finally made it to 10+ consecutive days with at least 1” of snow cover. This is a first since 2016. But it’s tough to compete with years like 10-11, 13-14, and 14-15. 2010 to 2021 longest snow cover >= 1 Number of Consecutive Days Snow Depth >= 1 for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Run Length Ending Date 1 53 2011-02-17 2 50 2015-03-14 3 48 2014-03-10 4 12 2010-02-21 5 11 2021-02-11 6 10 2016-02-01 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 27 minutes ago, bluewave said: NYC has finally made it to 10+ consecutive days with at least 1” of snow cover. This is a first since 2016. But it’s tough to compete with years like 10-11, 13-14, and 14-15. 2010 to 2021 longest snow cover >= 1 Number of Consecutive Days Snow Depth >= 1 for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Run Length Ending Date 1 53 2011-02-17 2 50 2015-03-14 3 48 2014-03-10 4 12 2010-02-21 5 11 2021-02-11 6 10 2016-02-01 2021 has 13 counting 1/31 and today... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 streaks of seven days or more with at least 1" of snow on the ground in February at Newark... 1946 from the 19th-26th... 1947 from the 20th-28th...11" max depth on the 21st... 1948 from the 1st-17th.....11" max depth on the 5th... 1958 from the 15th-25th...13" max depth on the 16th... 1961 from the 1st-19th.....26" max depth on the 4th.. 1962 from the 9th-17th... 1966 from the 1st-10th... 1967 from the 6th-15th.....15" max depth on the 7th... 1969 from the 9th-28th.....14" max depth on the 10th... 1972 from the 19th-26th... 1974 from the 4th-12th..... 1976 from the 2nd-10th... 1977 from the 3rd-10th... 1978 from the 6th-28th.....19" max depth on the 7th... 1979 from the 7th-24th.....19" max depth on the 20th... 1983 from the 6th-19th.....19" max depth on the 12th... 1985 from the 1st-12th... 1986 from the 7th-18th... 1994 from the 8th-21st.....18" max depth on the 12th... 1995 from the 4th-11th... 1996 from the 2nd-9th..... 2000 from the 1st-9th... 2003 from the 7th-28th.....23" max depth on the 18th... 2005 from the 20th-28th..... 2006 from the 11th-17th...20" max depth on the 12th...est... 2007 from the 14th-20th... 2010 from the 10th-20th...13" max depth on the 10th... 2011 from the 1st-14th.....15" max depth on the 1st... 2014 from the 3rd-24th.....18" max depth on the 14th.... 2015 from the 1st-28th..... 2017 from the 9th-15th..... 2021 from the 1st-13 and counting...............17" max depth... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Today was fair but cold in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. The ongoing colder-than-normal regime will continue through the weekend. A period of light precipitation is likely tomorrow night into Sunday. Little or no snow accumulation (0.5" or less) is likely in Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City. Some freezing rain is possible, with larger amounts north and west of those cities. Additional storms will very likely impact the region next week. Meanwhile, parts of the Northern Plains and Canada experienced a continuation of record and near record cold temperatures from what has been the coldest air mass since February 1994 in parts of that region. Minimum temperatures included: Cut Bank, MT: -38° (old record: -32°, 1936) ***Coldest reading since February 8, 1994*** Estevan, SK: -29° (old record: -28°, 1951) Flin Flon, MB: -45° (old record: -41°, 1981) Gillam, MB: -43° Great Falls, MT: -33 (old record: -21°, 1936) Lynn Lake, MB: -43° (old record: -39°, 2008) Norway House, MB: -44° (old record: -24°, 2008) The Pas, MB: -40° (old record: -38°, 1946) Thompson, MB: -50° (old record: -45°, 1979) Timmins, ON: -31° Williams Lake, BC: -25° (old record: -18°, 1975) Winnipeg: -27° That frigid air will continue to slowly advance south and eastward through this weekend. This will lead to snow and record-breaking cold in Texas. Dallas will likely see temperatures fall to the single digits and likely the coldest levels on record so late in the season. However, this air mass will likely avoid any direct impact on the Middle Atlantic and New England areas. A piece of the air mass could still graze the region at some point next week. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is now rebounding from its lowest levels in nearly eight years. It is forecast to rise sharply in coming days. The latest guidance suggests that the AO could attain positive values for the first time since December 25, 2020 when the AO was +0.226. Whether this development will mark the end of the prolonged period of blocking that has prevailed throughout winter 2020-21, and the evolution toward a sustained milder pattern, remains to be seen. A dramatic increase in the AO has sometimes coincided with storminess. Therefore, the February 14-24 period might offer a window of opportunity for a meaningful storm. That window of opportunity could extend through the end of February should blocking persist or return. Since 1950, there were 11 cases during the January 16-February 28 timeframe that saw the AO rise at least 3 sigma from a minimum value of -4.000 or below within a 7-day period. Four cases saw a major snowstorm in parts of the Middle Atlantic or New England regions within 3 weeks of the AO's reaching its minimum value. The dates of the AO's minimum value for those four cases are January 25, 1958, January 19, 1969, February 15, 1969, and January 16, 2016. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around February 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.00°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through meteorological winter. The SOI was +6.15 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -4.597 today. On February 11 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.131 (RMM). The February 10-adjusted amplitude was 2.075. Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely through the end of the third week of February. The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Since January 1, New York City has picked up 23.3" snow. In addition, 78% of winters that saw 10" or more snow in New York City during December had measurable snow in March or April vs. the 77% figure for all other winters. However, the subset of the December cases with less than 10" snow in January and more than 10" in February saw 83% of cases with measurable snowfall in March or April. When it came to 6" or more snow in March or April, that's where there was some divergence. For all cases without 10" or more snow in December, 35% had 6" or more snow in March and/or April. For the 10" December cases, that figure was somewhat lower at 30%. For the subset of December cases, it was 50%. The single exception from the subset was winter 2009-10 when just a trace of snow was recorded after February. All said, it is more likely than not that there will be additional measurable snowfall after February. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 86% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal February. February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 32.1° (3.2° below normal). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: Today was fair but cold in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. The ongoing colder-than-normal regime will continue through the weekend. A period of light precipitation is likely tomorrow night into Sunday. Little or no snow accumulation (0.5" or less) is likely in Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City. Some freezing rain is possible, with larger amounts north and west of those cities. Additional storms will very likely impact the region next week. Meanwhile, parts of the Northern Plains and Canada experienced a continuation of record and near record cold temperatures from what has been the coldest air mass since February 1994 in parts of that region. Minimum temperatures included: Cut Bank, MT: -38° (old record: -32°, 1936) ***Coldest reading since February 8, 1994*** Estevan, SK: -29° (old record: -28°, 1951) Flin Flon, MB: -45° (old record: -41°, 1981) Gillam, MB: -43° Great Falls, MT: -33 (old record: -21°, 1936) Lynn Lake, MB: -43° (old record: -39°, 2008) Norway House, MB: -44° (old record: -24°, 2008) The Pas, MB: -40° (old record: -38°, 1946) Thompson, MB: -50° (old record: -45°, 1979) Timmins, ON: -31° Williams Lake, BC: -25° (old record: -18°, 1975) Winnipeg: -27° That frigid air will continue to slowly advance south and eastward through this weekend. This will lead to snow and record-breaking cold in Texas. Dallas will likely see temperatures fall to the single digits and likely the coldest levels on record so late in the season. However, this air mass will likely avoid any direct impact on the Middle Atlantic and New England areas. A piece of the air mass could still graze the region at some point next week. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is now rebounding from its lowest levels in nearly eight years. It is forecast to rise sharply in coming days. The latest guidance suggests that the AO could attain positive values for the first time since December 25, 2020 when the AO was +0.226. Whether this development will mark the end of the prolonged period of blocking that has prevailed throughout winter 2020-21, and the evolution toward a sustained milder pattern, remains to be seen. A dramatic increase in the AO has sometimes coincided with storminess. Therefore, the February 14-24 period might offer a window of opportunity for a meaningful storm. That window of opportunity could extend through the end of February should blocking persist or return. Since 1950, there were 11 cases during the January 16-February 28 timeframe that saw the AO rise at least 3 sigma from a minimum value of -4.000 or below within a 7-day period. Four cases saw a major snowstorm in parts of the Middle Atlantic or New England regions within 3 weeks of the AO's reaching its minimum value. The dates of the AO's minimum value for those four cases are January 25, 1958, January 19, 1969, February 15, 1969, and January 16, 2016. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around February 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.00°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through meteorological winter. The SOI was +6.15 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -4.597 today. On February 11 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.131 (RMM). The February 10-adjusted amplitude was 2.075. Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely through the end of the third week of February. The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Since January 1, New York City has picked up 23.3" snow. In addition, 78% of winters that saw 10" or more snow in New York City during December had measurable snow in March or April vs. the 77% figure for all other winters. However, the subset of the December cases with less than 10" snow in January and more than 10" in February saw 83% of cases with measurable snowfall in March or April. When it came to 6" or more snow in March or April, that's where there was some divergence. For all cases without 10" or more snow in December, 35% had 6" or more snow in March and/or April. For the 10" December cases, that figure was somewhat lower at 30%. For the subset of December cases, it was 50%. The single exception from the subset was winter 2009-10 when just a trace of snow was recorded after February. All said, it is more likely than not that there will be additional measurable snowfall after February. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 86% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal February. February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 32.1° (3.2° below normal). Don what did you mean by this: For the 10" December cases, that figure was somewhat lower at 30%. For the subset of December cases, it was 50%. Which subset of December cases are we talking about that raises the figure to 50%? Do you mean the ones which saw more than 10" of snow in December and February but not in January? Isn't the famed 1966-67 winter in this list? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 28 minutes ago, MJO812 said: excellent chart....JFK approaching 30"....where did you find this chart, ANT? do they also post a chart like this for storm totals? I saw one like it for Jan 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 2 hours ago, bluewave said: Wednesday may be the coldest temperature of the month in NYC. Euro and GFS MOS have a low around 15° in NYC. Still cold, but not the readings around 0° the models were showing a week ago. KNYC GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 2/12/2021 1200 UTC FHR 24 36| 48 60| 72 84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192 SAT 13| SUN 14| MON 15| TUE 16| WED 17| THU 18| FRI 19|SAT CLIMO N/X 22 30| 26 39| 33 42| 24 24| 16 25| 24 39| 38 47| 34 26 42 Chris, when is the sky going to be clear again at night- it seems like we're going to have a week of cloudiness. Do you think it might clear early Tuesday evening or will it be early Wednesday evening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 32 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Is that right? DC's average through 2/12 is 15" (only 1" less than NYC) ? I would have thought they averaged less... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Don what did you mean by this: For the 10" December cases, that figure was somewhat lower at 30%. For the subset of December cases, it was 50%. Which subset of December cases are we talking about that raises the figure to 50%? Do you mean the ones which saw more than 10" of snow in December and February but not in January? Isn't the famed 1966-67 winter in this list? The winters where December had 10” or more snow, January had less than 10”, and February had 10” or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said: The winters where December had 10” or more snow, January had less than 10”, and February had 10” or more. it does sound like 1966-67. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 26 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: excellent chart....JFK approaching 30"....where did you find this chart, ANT? do they also post a chart like this for storm totals? I saw one like it for Jan 2016. It’s posted on the NWS Eastern Region Headquarters Facebook page: https://m.facebook.com/pg/NWSEastern/posts/?ref=page_internal&mt_nav=0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: it does sound like 1966-67. NYC got 9.1" of snow in Dec 66...23.6" in Feb 67...Newark had 13" in Dec and 25" in Feb...1961-62 had a 10" snowfall in Dec and 13" more fell in Feb in small doses... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 2/13 0z GFS at 81 hours for HPN: Icy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 5 hours ago, bluewave said: Wednesday may be the coldest temperature of the month in NYC. Euro and GFS MOS have a low around 15° in NYC. Still cold, but not the readings around 0° the models were showing a week ago. KNYC GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 2/12/2021 1200 UTC FHR 24 36| 48 60| 72 84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192 SAT 13| SUN 14| MON 15| TUE 16| WED 17| THU 18| FRI 19|SAT CLIMO N/X 22 30| 26 39| 33 42| 24 24| 16 25| 24 39| 38 47| 34 26 42 It's the SE ridge rearing its head. The core of the cold is shooting down the Plains/Midwest and we get a relatively glancing blow. Austin getting down to 6 would equivalently mean us getting down well below zero? That says something by itself-NYC may make it to 15 but much of TX in a much more subtropical climate where palm trees can naturally grow may get 5-10 degrees colder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Such a fine line, too cold and every storm is squashed but some warmth and its so easy to warm our area , its a pretty lousy winter climo although the atlantic does provide some big storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Current temp 24/DP 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 7 hours ago, jm1220 said: It's the SE ridge rearing its head. The core of the cold is shooting down the Plains/Midwest and we get a relatively glancing blow. Austin getting down to 6 would equivalently mean us getting down well below zero? That says something by itself-NYC may make it to 15 but much of TX in a much more subtropical climate where palm trees can naturally grow may get 5-10 degrees colder. Yeah, the strongest Arctic outbreaks in recent years have been to our west around the Plains. You can see how the Plains are warming more slowly than other parts of the country. The record Atlantic SSTs and SE Ridge have been a dominant force in our weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 30degs.(24/36), or -4.5. GFS snowless still, while keeping way AN liquid amounts to work with. CMC/EURO going the wrong way. btw: Models are inializing with a 2mT that 7 to 10 degrees too low. How do you predict the future w/o the correct present? 28*(42%RH) here at 6am/7am. 32* by Noon. 33* at 6pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Probably in the minority here, but I’m just about ready for it to melt. We’ve had a nice run of over 3’ here in the month, and my backyard is under a ton of crusted over snow. Hoping for a nice stretch of sun and 45 degree temperatures to commence a gradual melt after this week.. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Morning thoughts... A weak system will move rapidly from the Gulf of Mexico off the Virginia Capes over the next 24 hours bringing some light precipitation to the region. With a warm layer at 800 mb to 850 mb, most of the precipitation will not fall as snow. Today will be mostly cloudy and unseasonably cool. Light snow, sleet or freezing rain will develop in parts of the region later this afternoon or evening. Any snow accumulations from Philadelphia to New York City will be minimal (0.5” or less). Temperatures will likely top out in the upper 20s to perhaps lower 30s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 29° Newark: 29° Philadelphia: 30° Tomorrow will likely see additional light precipitation. In the long-range, there is growing consensus among the ensembles that a sustained milder pattern will develop around or just after February 20. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 44 minutes ago, North and West said: Probably in the minority here, but I’m just about ready for it to melt. We’ve had a nice run of over 3’ here in the month, and my backyard is under a ton of crusted over snow. Hoping for a nice stretch of sun and 45 degree temperatures to commence a gradual melt after this week. . No parking at all here in Brooklyn I want it to melt 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Models had snow after snow but the orientation and the placement of the pv changed everything. Instead of moving over the lakes like it was modeled last week , it ended up spilling into the middle of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 No parking at all here in Brooklyn I want it to meltThe parking lot of the Trader Joe’s and Dunkin’ in Florham Park looks like it might not melt until Easter.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, North and West said: The parking lot of the Trader Joe’s and Dunkin’ in Florham Park looks like it might not melt until Easter. . Same here in the mall parking lots Huge piles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 16 minutes ago, MJO812 said: No parking at all here in Brooklyn I want it to melt You're the same people that complain when we don’t have snow. We haven’t had any appreciable snow on the ground in two years. It has been on the ground for a whopping 2 weeks and you want it gone. In a week or two it will be gone for 10 months (sans a wet March snow) and you can enjoy the record dewpoints that the cement jungle provides us these days. For the record, there is never anywhere to park in Brooklyn...that is why people who want a car lifestyle eventually leave Brooklyn 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Signs point to an end to our wintry weather (for now) however I do think we'll see another round of blocking end of Feb or early March. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 You're the same people that complain when we don’t have snow. We haven’t had any appreciable snow on the ground in two years. It has been on the ground for a whopping 2 weeks and you want it gone. In a week or two it will be gone for 10 months (sans a wet March snow) and you can enjoy the record dewpoints that the cement jungle provides us these days. For the record, there is never anywhere to park in Brooklyn...that is why people who want a car lifestyle eventually leave Brooklyn . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 36 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: You're the same people that complain when we don’t have snow. We haven’t had any appreciable snow on the ground in two years. It has been on the ground for a whopping 2 weeks and you want it gone. In a week or two it will be gone for 10 months (sans a wet March snow) and you can enjoy the record dewpoints that the cement jungle provides us these days. For the record, there is never anywhere to park in Brooklyn...that is why people who want a car lifestyle eventually leave Brooklyn I'm dumb for staying in NYC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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