LibertyBell Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 15 minutes ago, bluewave said: The other thing is how much warmer strong -AO patterns have become. This is only the 4th year with with a -1 AO or lower for all 3 winter months DJF. I believe Don had a great post a while back on the warming -AO patterns. This winter so far through February 10th is the warmest on the list. NYC average temperature for a -1 or lower AO for each individual month Dec, Jan, and Feb Dec 1 to Feb 10 average temperature NYC 20-21....36.4° 09-10....33.7° 76.77....26.0° 69-70°...30.1° wow almost 3 degrees warmer than the next one. And if it weren't for February all three months would have been above normal. The streak of below 50 highs is also interesting- how many are we up to now, Chris? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: wow almost 3 degrees warmer than the next one. And if it weren't for February all three months would have been above normal. The streak of below 50 highs is also interesting- how many are we up to now, Chris? NYC is at the 23rd longest streak under 50° days at 41 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: NYC is at the 23rd longest streak under 50° days at 41 days. is JFK on a similar streak? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Third run in a row with no snow here, then total boredom sets in. No precipitation and temperatures too warm for snow anyway in Week 2. Please NB that the CMC/EURO still hanging with 6" on this same run. Don't forget that the GFS' Clown's Night Out Run (18Z)-----will be here by around 7pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 14 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: is JFK on a similar streak? No. Its streak is 26 days (through yesterday), which ranks as the 41st longest on record. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 21 minutes ago, CIK62 said: Third run in a row with no snow here, then total boredom sets in. No precipitation and temperatures too warm for snow anyway in Week 2. I may regret this but what kind of temperatures are we talking about in week 2? still cold and clammy or maybe some early spring time warmth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Looks like the models are really backing off the cold and therefore the metro area is going to get more plain rain and the more expected climo spots will be at risk of significant icing. (could still change) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, HVSnowLover said: Looks like the models are really backing off the cold and therefore the metro area is going to get more plain rain and the more expected climo spots will be at risk of significant icing. (could still change) watching these models is about as bad as watching the stock market Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 4 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Looks like the models are really backing off the cold and therefore the metro area is going to get more plain rain and the more expected climo spots will be at risk of significant icing. (could still change) That's a relief. I'll gladly take a cold rain over ice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Highs stuck in the 20’s with deep snow cover. This is great for February 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 hour ago, CIK62 said: Third run in a row with no snow here, then total boredom sets in. No precipitation and temperatures too warm for snow anyway in Week 2. You posted the same charts that had nothing before nyc got 26 inches in two weeks. What’s the point? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Storm on 2/16 looking less promising and one on 2/18 starting to look maybe a bit more promising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: That's a relief. I'll gladly take a cold rain over ice. Still a tricky forecast especially just NW of the city where Euro is 33-34 during the storm, if its off by a few degrees it would change things a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Storm on 2/16 looking less promising and one on 2/18 starting to look maybe a bit more promising yea these models are definitely like the stock market Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 hour ago, CIK62 said: Third run in a row with no snow here, then total boredom sets in. No precipitation and temperatures too warm for snow anyway in Week 2. wow torch city in the LR....clown timeframe but 60 would feel tropical 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 17 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: wow torch city in the LR....clown timeframe but 60 would feel tropical The blocking and big time -AO saved us so far. When that relaxes we’ll torch for sure on the SE ridge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 9 minutes ago, jm1220 said: The blocking and big time -AO saved us so far. When that relaxes we’ll torch for sure on the SE ridge. I doubt winter is over though. Have to be careful with the short wavelengths in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowzone Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 26 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: wow torch city in the LR....clown timeframe but 60 would feel tropical Not looking forward to that. I try not to think about it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I doubt winter is over though. Have to be careful with the short wavelengths in March. Perhaps, but if you look back to 2010-11-the pattern lasted about 6 weeks and that was it-I think we went snowless that March.....We need the next 10 days to deliver.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 34 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: yea these models are definitely like the stock market Each storm affects the next one so its so hard to forecast 3 storms out 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Perhaps, but if you look back to 2010-11-the pattern lasted about 6 weeks and that was it-I think we went snowless that March.....We need the next 10 days to deliver.... I thought we had some snow in March? Like maybe a 4 inch event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowzone Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Perhaps, but if you look back to 2010-11-the pattern lasted about 6 weeks and that was it-I think we went snowless that March.....We need the next 10 days to deliver.... Yes. Most of that winter's snow and cold occurred between the Boxing Day snowstorm on December 26 - 27th - the end of January. March 2011 was very mild, including 65 degrees on the 17th and 76 degrees on the 18th. However, I did have 2.3" of wet snow on March 21st and 2.5" of snow March 23-24th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarrenCtyWx Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 There was also I believe a SWFE that gave north and west areas significant snow around February 21 in 2011. It wasn’t quite a total shutout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 models have gotten worse over the years maybe due to changing climate.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 30 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Perhaps, but if you look back to 2010-11-the pattern lasted about 6 weeks and that was it-I think we went snowless that March.....We need the next 10 days to deliver.... We were supposed to be torching right now so the fact that we have 20+ inches in Feb and will likely finish BN for temperatures is a huge feat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 18 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: We were supposed to be torching right now so the fact that we have 20+ inches in Feb and will likely finish BN for temperatures is a huge feat. yep after the last 2 years I'll take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: The blocking and big time -AO saved us so far. That’s for sure. Our winters have alternated between blocking or the SE Ridge. Once we lose the blocking, the SE Ridge returns. Even when we did have the strong blocking this winter, several of our snowstorms were more tucked in than usual. Probably related to the record SSTs off the East Coast forcing the baroclinic zone closer to the coast. So we seem to have the SSTs and MJO amping the SE Ridge. It takes some extreme type of blocking to suppress the SE Ridge enough. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: I thought we had some snow in March? Like maybe a 4 inch event? We did get a 4 inch event. Not sure if it was late Feb or March that year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: We did get a 4 inch event. Not sure if it was late Feb or March that year. president's day weekend. I don't remember anything in March but I do remember a 3-4 incher in Feb on that long weekend 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Back tomorrow morning but adding one graphic that should alert everyone to potential for some heavy duty removal problems by the 20th. WPC7 day QPF.. most of this should be ice/snow I84 corridor and i doubt any big warmup next Friday. Too difficult to be sure of what will happen but I think I84 has a pretty good chance of 6+ by next Friday- tbd. Modeling continues the heavy snow axis similarly for the past 4+cycles, really back to the 00z/8 cycle. The question on our southern side of the axis, how much of that is erroneously high due to sleet 10 to 1 conversion. Finally: today was beautiful cloudy subfreezing mid 20s day here in nw NJ with deep snowpack. Wednesday the 17th may be the last such beaut before we return to warmer temps starting next weekend (and melting). 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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