February 2021

[HVSnowLover]

6 minutes ago, EpicHECS said:

How is this something people are locking in? Again: How widespread of a major icing event do you expect in the NYC metro area? .25? .50? 

I can't say that this far out and certainly nothing is a lock at this point but with the trough axis that far west and very cold air in place its screaming ice storm setups for the metro area. Hopefully we get more sleet than ZR. I think you said you are 65 miles NW of the city so you would be in better position to see snow.  

[LibertyBell]

On 2/10/2021 at 7:11 PM, bluewave said:

Yeah, those areas will be closer to the path of the current record breaking high pressure when it drops south.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=FWD&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0

The freezer door will then be propped open on Sunday as mid level
ridging amplifies over the Northwest U.S. and our polar low over
Southern Canada pivots eastward allowing a chunk of arctic air to
spread southward through the Plains. A 1050 mb high will surge
southward behind a strong cold front but ahead of a compact
shortwave ejecting out of the southwest U.S. This will set the
stage for some exceptionally cold air to spread into North Texas
over the latter half of the weekend into early next week. We`re
becoming increasingly concerned for a prolonged cold spell with
actual air temperatures falling into the single digits to near 0
across parts of the region by Monday. While the GFS is currently
the coldest guidance, other global guidance and ensemble members
indicate 850 mb temps falling into the -12 to -17 degree range
which would be in the coldest 10% of temperatures in our observed
sounding data. In addition, a pool of moisture will reside across
much of East Texas and should quickly surge northwestward into the
region as strong forcing overspreads North Texas late Sunday into
Monday. With column temperatures as cold as currently forecast,
widespread moderate to heavy snow would be expected to develop as
the shortwave spreads across the Southern Plains. The current
forecast will reflect these trends with all snow by late Sunday
night and continuing into Monday. While it`s a little early to pin
down exact accumulations, as of now, it appears that widespread
snowfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches will be possible over a large
area of the region. Column temperatures would be cold enough to
support higher snowfall ratios than we typically see which could
result in significantly heaftier snow totals. North winds 15 to 25
mph could also result in significant reductions to visibility
during the snow. This will be a fast moving system, but definitely
has the potential for significant impacts to travel and
infrastructure across the region. Extremely cold weather will
continue into the middle of next week.

It should be stressed that this bout of extreme cold may have
significant impact to infrastructure over the latter part of the
weekend into early next week. Exposed pipes are likely to burst in
the prolonged cold. Preparations should be made now to protect
exposed pipes or other infrastructure sensitive to the cold. Plans
should be made for pets and people.

 

Dallas has a strong chance to get below zero, when was the last time that happened?

 

[Rtd208]

Current temp is 21 here.

[wdrag]

Good morning everyone, I'll get to the thread updates by 9AM ish. 

If i had to do over again... I'd lump the 13th-19th as one messy wintry period with a a wide ranging spread of solutions every day. I do think NJ/E PA will see wintry precip every day (13,14,15,16, 18, and maybe 19).  At least 5 of the 7 days with 17th being mostly likely the driest day and the 19th the least certain for wintry).  NYC/CT/se NYS might escape the 13th.. Precip on the 13th,14th should be just light. late 15-16 much more important, and the biggest scoop probably on the18th-19th.  

Snow axis for every ensemble cycles on the EPS has focused PA-NYS-Central and northern New England with amounts breathing up and down with each cycle. That means the subforum is on the southern edge where leaning on snowfall for more than a couple inches s of I84 could be a big mistake. However the southern edge of that axis should be a lot of ice with rain reserved mainly for a part of the 19th. 

The EC take on 18th-19th could be a one cycle aberration.  I'm being careful by not buying into this, until I see two or three successive cycles of similar snowy scenario. Right now the NAEFS does not support the EC. 539A/12

[SnowGoose69]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Dallas has a strong chance to get below zero, when was the last time that happened?

 

2/2/96

[LibertyBell]

24 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

2/2/96

1996 was an underrated cold winter....people keep talking about how mild it was after the blizzard but they forget how extreme the cold got in many parts of the country in February.  Minnesota had their all time state record of -60 in Feb 1996.  Impressive come back winter after what happened in January.

 

[LibertyBell]

50 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Good morning everyone, I'll get to the thread updates by 9AM ish. 

If i had to do over again... I'd lump the 13th-19th as one messy wintry period with a a wide ranging spread of solutions every day. I do think NJ/E PA will see wintry precip every day (13,14,15,16, 18, and maybe 19).  At least 5 of the 7 days with 17th being mostly likely the driest day and the 19th the least certain for wintry).  NYC/CT/se NYS might escape the 13th.. Precip on the 13th,14th should be just light. late 15-16 much more important, and the biggest scoop probably on the18th-19th.  

Snow axis for every ensemble cycles on the EPS has focused PA-NYS-Central and northern New England with amounts breathing up and down with each cycle. That means the subforum is on the southern edge where leaning on snowfall for more than a couple inches s of I84 could be a big mistake. However the southern edge of that axis should be a lot of ice with rain reserved mainly for a part of the 19th. 

The EC take on 18th-19th could be a one cycle aberration.  I'm being careful by not buying into this, until I see two or three successive cycles of similar snowy scenario. Right now the NAEFS does not support the EC. 539A/12

the latest EC was very snowy, Walt?  Weird that it was so quiet on here with no one posting about it

 

[wdrag]

8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

the latest EC was very snowy, Walt?  Weird that it was so quiet on here with no one posting about it

 

Probably an example of why we can't buy into one model that shows what we want, but just ride out all the variations and try to smooth out to a reasonable expectation of reality. I don't think that EC cycle will be mirrored on it's 12z/12 run.  If it shows consistency, there will be lots of chatter but for now, conservative is best, imo. 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 26degs.(20/32), or -8.5.

GFS has gone from 20" to NO INCHES over the next 16 days, and much warmer after the 21st.   That's two straight runs at ZERO"!    The v16 won't let anything like that happen-----RIGHT?

CMC/EURO are 8" over the next 10 Days.

24*(52%RH) here at 6am.     23* at 7am.         31* by Noon.         29* at 1pm.        29*-32* all afternoon and 32* at 10pm.

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Good morning everyone, I'll get to the thread updates by 9AM ish. 

If i had to do over again... I'd lump the 13th-19th as one messy wintry period with a a wide ranging spread of solutions every day. I do think NJ/E PA will see wintry precip every day (13,14,15,16, 18, and maybe 19).  At least 5 of the 7 days with 17th being mostly likely the driest day and the 19th the least certain for wintry).  NYC/CT/se NYS might escape the 13th.. Precip on the 13th,14th should be just light. late 15-16 much more important, and the biggest scoop probably on the18th-19th.  

Snow axis for every ensemble cycles on the EPS has focused PA-NYS-Central and northern New England with amounts breathing up and down with each cycle. That means the subforum is on the southern edge where leaning on snowfall for more than a couple inches s of I84 could be a big mistake. However the southern edge of that axis should be a lot of ice with rain reserved mainly for a part of the 19th. 

The EC take on 18th-19th could be a one cycle aberration.  I'm being careful by not buying into this, until I see two or three successive cycles of similar snowy scenario. Right now the NAEFS does not support the EC. 539A/12

Thanks Walt.

What a massive disappointment for the end of the historic blocking period. Usually blocking ends with a snowstorm. Happy that we at least reached average snowfall for winter.

 

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The 0z long range guidance is correcting warmer now that the models are trying to bring the MJO back closer to Phase 6 again.

 

looks like we've probably had our biggest snowstorm of the season already.

it's going to be extremely difficult to top the early February event

 

 

[LibertyBell]

34 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Probably an example of why we can't buy into one model that shows what we want, but just ride out all the variations and try to smooth out to a reasonable expectation of reality. I don't think that EC cycle will be mirrored on it's 12z/12 run.  If it shows consistency, there will be lots of chatter but for now, conservative is best, imo. 

Yes, I'm already going in with the assumption that we've probably already seen the largest storm of the season.  I'd put that at 90%...anything from here on out is gravy since we're already at or above average snowfall for the season.  We've had three storms of over 6" of snowfall, that's more than we expected to begin with.

 

 

[MJO812]

40 inches or bust for NYC

[LibertyBell]

18 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks Walt.

What a massive disappointment for the end of the historic blocking period. Usually blocking ends with a snowstorm. Happy that we at least reached average snowfall for winter.

 

we're above average snowfall....could still hit 40" in the city.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, MJO812 said:

40 inches or bust for NYC

it'll probably hit 40 inches this season for NYC even if we have a lot of snow to mix scenarios.....we'll pick up a 2 inch storm here and a 2 inch storm there and that will be enough to get us to 40 inches and that's even if we get nothing in March.

 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

it'll probably hit 40 inches this season for NYC even if we have a lot of snow to mix scenarios.....we'll pick up a 2 inch storm here and a 2 inch storm there and that will be enough to get us to 40 inches and that's even if we get nothing in March.

 

I'm at 32.5

Just need 7.5 inches more.

Hopefully we get it this week. 

Hopefully one year the 1996 snow record for NYC will be broken.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I'm at 32.5

Just need 7.5 inches more.

Hopefully we get it this week. 

Hopefully one year the 1996 snow record for NYC will be broken.

I'd say 70% odds we get to 40" even with this "milder" outcome  just because of the frequency of storms and they dont need to be all or even mostly snow to get us there.

93-94 was like this way which is what most people forget.  Only two storms that entire winter were all snow.  It was the frequency of storms that got NYC to 50"+  also only one storm that winter had double digit snowfall.

 

 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I'd say 70% odds we get to 40" even with this "milder" outcome  just because of the frequency of storms and they dont need to be all or even mostly snow to get us there.

93-94 was like this way which is what most people forget.  Only two storms that entire winter were all snow.  It was the frequency of storms that got NYC to 50"+  also only one storm that winter had double digit snowfall.

 

 

32.5 is the most snowfall that I have gotten since  2015-2016 winter where I had 36 inches.

Hopefully we can end winter with a huge bang with a big snowstorm since the AO is rapidly increasing.

[donsutherland1]

6 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Dallas has a strong chance to get below zero, when was the last time that happened?

 

December 23, 1989 when the temperature was -1 degree. The all-time record low is -8, which was set on February 12, 1899.

[EastonSN+]

18 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I'd say 70% odds we get to 40" even with this "milder" outcome  just because of the frequency of storms and they dont need to be all or even mostly snow to get us there.

93-94 was like this way which is what most people forget.  Only two storms that entire winter were all snow.  It was the frequency of storms that got NYC to 50"+  also only one storm that winter had double digit snowfall.

 

 

Yeah not saying we don't scrap our way to 40 (I am at 34 now which is average for my area), I am more disappointed in the fact that usually when blocking breaks down we get a hecs or mecs, especially if the blocking hits historic levels. 

We may get couple inches here or there to 40, and we all know March is a roll of the dice no matter the background state, just wanted this historic blocking to go out with a bang.

[EastonSN+]

20 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

32.5 is the most snowfall that I have gotten since  2015-2016 winter where I had 36 inches.

Hopefully we can end winter with a huge bang with a big snowstorm since the AO is rapidly increasing.

Wow that's crazy. 2017/2018 was a top 5 winter for me and 2016/2017 was over 40. Surprised you did not crack 40 or 50 either of those years.

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

December 23, 1989 when the temperature was -1 degree. The all-time record low is -8, which was set on February 12, 1899.

that all time record was just before the historic blizzard wasn't it?  The one which caused measurable snow in New Orleans and Tampa and 34" at Cape May?

 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Wow that's crazy. 2017/2018 was a top 5 winter for me and 2016/2017 was over 40. Surprised you did not crack 40 or 50 either of those years.

I'm surprised too, I think NYC went over 40" in both years....JFK also went over 40" in 2015-16

 

 

[Allsnow]

Yeah the blocking is breaking down and we might go back to more of a traditional Niña look. It was a good run and I’m sure we will snow again at some point. 

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Yeah the blocking is breaking down and we might go back to more of a traditional Niña look. It was a good run and I’m sure we will snow again at some point. 

I wonder if someone will claim victory if the 2nd half of Feb turns into a Nina look after all this snow.

[donsutherland1]

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

that all time record was just before the historic blizzard wasn't it?  The one which caused measurable snow in New Orleans and Tampa and 34" at Cape May?

 

It was. The 1899 Arctic outbreak and blizzard is a one-of-a-kind event. 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

At 7:50 am, a storm was moving away from Virginia. Rain was falling at Norfolk while some snow was reported in Charlottesville. That storm will not impact the Philadelphia to New York City region. Today will be partly sunny and unseasonably cool. Temperatures will likely top out in the upper 20s to perhaps lower 30s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 28°

Newark: 29°

Philadelphia: 30°

Tomorrow will become mainly cloudy. A system could bring some precipitation to the region tomorrow night and Sunday. Most of the precipitation will be in the form of sleet, freezing rain or rain. Any snowfall amounts will be light, generally a half-inch or less.

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I wonder if someone will claim victory if the 2nd half of Feb turns into a Nina look after all this snow.

There's strong evidence that these "looks" dont really apply....they broadbrush patterns.  If you look at the top 10 winters of all time, you'll see them range all across the board.  And if you look at the bottom 10 winters, they also range all across the board LOL.  Also, it wont be the second half of February, if anything it'll just be the last 9 days of the month, a 28 day month, which means just the last third of the month.

 

These ENSO fundamentalists annoy me, they're almost as irrational as religious fundamentalists.

 

[Allsnow]

6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I wonder if someone will claim victory if the 2nd half of Feb turns into a Nina look after all this snow.

I’m sure he will be back to try and spin it but we all know he was wrong. 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

It was. The 1899 Arctic outbreak and blizzard is a one-of-a-kind event. 

This event being discussed this week having frozen precip going all the way to the Gulf Coast reminds me of it, but isn't nearly of the same magnitude.