February 2021

[Rtd208]

Cold morning out there.

Current temp 17

[wdrag]

Will update thoughts on the multiple threads by 8A, and post CoCoRAHS maps around 930A and start a new OBS topic for 3A-6P Tuesday (messy LI-i78 south). Nothing for me past the 18th. My initial thinking by the time Valentines Evening is done...minimum 2" new NYC and go up from there inside of I95. Uncertainty-Reasonings will follow in the threads with nothing bombastic coming but just annoying (for some) multiple additional snowfalls.

[gravitylover]

56 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Cold morning out there.

Current temp 17

I've got 8°. Yup it's cold.

[Rtd208]

Temp down to 15 here now.

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 24degs.(17/30), or -10.0.

Yesterday's snow was 4.5".      Total for February now 19.9",  32.5" for season.      Expect 4" to 8" more during the above period.

19*(52%RH) here at 6am.          18* briefly at 7am.         20* by 9am.        25* by Noon.         30* by 3pm.      Really a very benign sub-32 high.         32* near 4pm.

[wishcast_hater]

5 degrees this morning. 

[North and West]

We’ve had about 36” of snow so far in February here. Isn’t that absolutely bonkers?


.

[wdrag]

Good Monday morning everyone - Feb 8! Will you become snow weary pretty soon? Appears a fair amount of wintry elements are coming the next 10 days: Tuesday the 9th, Thu-Fri 11th-12th, Valentines Day (14th as a reminder) and sometime between the 16th-18th. I think minimum 2" NYC by 6PM Valentines evening. 

 

Safest driest travel days entire ne USA east of the Appalachians are today, Wednesday the 10th before 6PM, maybe the 13th? and probably Monday the 15th. The rest, be aware and plan safe travel with at least extra time allotted if the forecast for your travel day is confidently snowy.  I will parse this overview out into the threads, but this holds til I get there. 

 

Focus below is the I84-I95 corridors.

 

Tuesday the 9th: Hazardous snowfall of 2-5" for the entire I84 corridor. Mostly the daylight hours but starts ne PA/nw NJ 3A-6A; CT-MA 7A-9A. Will melt on treated roads but caution advised hills and secondarys. Heaviest NORTH of I84, especially northern CT-MA where ~4" common. Expect 1-3" here in northern NJ possibly down to Easton PA as well. Could be a little ice I80 southward too. Plan for possible travel slowdowns. NYC-LI--- looks like snow to start but melts during the late morning afternoon and may change to rain?  My take is 1/2" NYC but uncertain.  I just worry about melting-like yesterday when probably more fell than the 4a.5 recorded but melted-compacted due to urban heat.  

 

Thursday-Friday the 11th-12th: Periods of snow especially PA/NJ with less certainty northern CT. My initial expectation from Baltimore northward is anywhere from 2-10" total by 11PM the 12th. Best chance of large accumulations I80 southward but who gets what?? Does look like travel problems at times, especially if the first part develops near midnight Thursday morning (or late Wednesday evening the 10th). Snow accums may only be 2" Philly to Baltimore because of freezing rain/sleet? That would place best axis of accumulative snow somewhere down across central NJ. Lots of uncertainty on details.  The 10" may be high but it was initial impression yesterday and I don't drop that unless it's clearly not happening.  Ensembles suggest decent snowfall and modeling may yet trend back north? This should bring NYC 1-2" for starters.  Think the NAM/RGEM will be helpful on trends.  No GFSv16 available (to my knowledge).

 

Valentines Day: looks like a snow event for the I84 corridor. For a start: 1-4" maybe even NYC. NAEFS is cold! 

 

Pretty cold the morning the 15th with either wind chill near 15 below I84 corridor or widespread temps down to zero or colder I84 corridor (not that cold urban centers). 

 

Tue-Thu 16th-18th: more snow and ice coming I80 region northward. Saw the warmer GFS op but other modeling including NAEFS look colder. 

 

Graphics added: the chance of 1" or more of snow Tuesday. Pretty high chance in the orange colors. Chance of 4" or more is much less on Tuesday but graphic gives the idea along and north of I84. Also the chance of 3"+ snow on Thursday the 11th. The axis of the greens and blues are the most important... shows best chance for adverse snowfall. 623A/8

 

 

 

 

 

[EasternLI]

Good grief the 06z gefs long range. 

[bluewave]

With more snowfall opportunities ahead of us, JFK is already top 10 for February snowfall. NYC and ISP aren’t too far behind. So our record snowfall pattern since the 02-03 winter continues.

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Total Snowfall	Missing Count
1	2003	32.1	0
2	2010	29.6	0
3	1961	25.4	0
4	1983	24.7	0
5	1994	23.7	0
6	1969	22.4	0
7	2014	21.0	0
8	1967	19.9	0
9	2021	18.8	21
10	1996	18.4	0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Total Snowfall	Missing Count
1	2010	36.9	0
2	2014	29.0	0
3	1934	27.9	0
4	2006	26.9	0
5	1994	26.4	0
6	1926	26.3	0
7	2003	26.1	0
8	1920	25.3	0
-	1899	25.3	0
9	1967	23.6	0
10	1978	23.0	0
11	1907	21.8	0
12	1983	21.5	0
13	1996	21.2	0
14	1894	20.5	0
15	1979	20.1	0
16	2021	19.9	21

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Total Snowfall	Missing Count
1	2013	31.4	0
2	1969	29.5	0
3	1978	28.9	0
4	1983	26.1	0
5	2014	24.5	0
6	2010	21.7	0
7	1994	20.0	1
8	2006	19.9	0
9	1967	19.5	0
10	1996	19.0	0
11	2021	17.4	21

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

Today will be partly sunny and unseasonably cold. Temperatures will likely top out in the upper 20s and lower 30s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 29°

Newark: 30°

Philadelphia: 32°

A system will likely bring a swath of 1”-3” snow to parts of the region with local amounts of up to 4”, especially north and west of Newark and New York City. Central Park could even pick up an inch or two of snow, but there is uncertainty about the southern extent of the snow.

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, EasternLI said:

Good grief the 06z gefs long range. 

Thanks!

How do GEPS and EPS look?

[wdrag]

58 minutes ago, bluewave said:

With more snowfall opportunities ahead of us, JFK is already top 10 for February snowfall. NYC and ISP aren’t too far behind. So our record snowfall pattern since the 02-03 winter continues.

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Total Snowfall	Missing Count
1	2003	32.1	0
2	2010	29.6	0
3	1961	25.4	0
4	1983	24.7	0
5	1994	23.7	0
6	1969	22.4	0
7	2014	21.0	0
8	1967	19.9	0
9	2021	18.8	21
10	1996	18.4	0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Total Snowfall	Missing Count
1	2010	36.9	0
2	2014	29.0	0
3	1934	27.9	0
4	2006	26.9	0
5	1994	26.4	0
6	1926	26.3	0
7	2003	26.1	0
8	1920	25.3	0
-	1899	25.3	0
9	1967	23.6	0
10	1978	23.0	0
11	1907	21.8	0
12	1983	21.5	0
13	1996	21.2	0
14	1894	20.5	0
15	1979	20.1	0
16	2021	19.9	21

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Total Snowfall	Missing Count
1	2013	31.4	0
2	1969	29.5	0
3	1978	28.9	0
4	1983	26.1	0
5	2014	24.5	0
6	2010	21.7	0
7	1994	20.0	1
8	2006	19.9	0
9	1967	19.5	0
10	1996	19.0	0
11	2021	17.4	21

EXCELLLENT... better presentation than mine and comprehensive. Thanks. 

[MJO812]

I'm finding it hard to believe that the storms will be suppressed going forward. The NAO is not even going to be strong going forward.  The AO is going to be at rock bottom but is expected to rise.

[crossbowftw3]

2 hours ago, wdrag said:

Good Monday morning everyone - Feb 8! Will you become snow weary pretty soon? Appears a fair amount of wintry elements are coming the next 10 days: Tuesday the 9th, Thu-Fri 11th-12th, Valentines Day (14th as a reminder) and sometime between the 16th-18th. I think minimum 2" NYC by 6PM Valentines evening. 

 

Safest driest travel days entire ne USA east of the Appalachians are today, Wednesday the 10th before 6PM, maybe the 13th? and probably Monday the 15th. The rest, be aware and plan safe travel with at least extra time allotted if the forecast for your travel day is confidently snowy.  I will parse this overview out into the threads, but this holds til I get there. 

 

Focus below is the I84-I95 corridors.

 

Tuesday the 9th: Hazardous snowfall of 2-5" for the entire I84 corridor. Mostly the daylight hours but starts ne PA/nw NJ 3A-6A; CT-MA 7A-9A. Will melt on treated roads but caution advised hills and secondarys. Heaviest NORTH of I84, especially northern CT-MA where ~4" common. Expect 1-3" here in northern NJ possibly down to Easton PA as well. Could be a little ice I80 southward too. Plan for possible travel slowdowns. NYC-LI--- looks like snow to start but melts during the late morning afternoon and may change to rain?  My take is 1/2" NYC but uncertain.  I just worry about melting-like yesterday when probably more fell than the 4a.5 recorded but melted-compacted due to urban heat.  

 

Thursday-Friday the 11th-12th: Periods of snow especially PA/NJ with less certainty northern CT. My initial expectation from Baltimore northward is anywhere from 2-10" total by 11PM the 12th. Best chance of large accumulations I80 southward but who gets what?? Does look like travel problems at times, especially if the first part develops near midnight Thursday morning (or late Wednesday evening the 10th). Snow accums may only be 2" Philly to Baltimore because of freezing rain/sleet? That would place best axis of accumulative snow somewhere down across central NJ. Lots of uncertainty on details.  The 10" may be high but it was initial impression yesterday and I don't drop that unless it's clearly not happening.  Ensembles suggest decent snowfall and modeling may yet trend back north? This should bring NYC 1-2" for starters.  Think the NAM/RGEM will be helpful on trends.  No GFSv16 available (to my knowledge).

 

Valentines Day: looks like a snow event for the I84 corridor. For a start: 1-4" maybe even NYC. NAEFS is cold! 

 

Pretty cold the morning the 15th with either wind chill near 15 below I84 corridor or widespread temps down to zero or colder I84 corridor (not that cold urban centers). 

 

Tue-Thu 16th-18th: more snow and ice coming I80 region northward. Saw the warmer GFS op but other modeling including NAEFS look colder. 

 

Graphics added: the chance of 1" or more of snow Tuesday. Pretty high chance in the orange colors. Chance of 4" or more is much less on Tuesday but graphic gives the idea along and north of I84. Also the chance of 3"+ snow on Thursday the 11th. The axis of the greens and blues are the most important... shows best chance for adverse snowfall. 623A/8

 

 

 

 

 

The craziest part of all of this is that these all read off as minor-moderate events at their best...definitely showing how you don’t need big storm after big storm to keep piling on the snow 

[EasternLI]

15 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks!

How do GEPS and EPS look?

Eps looks snowy. Didn't look at the Canadian. This is a pretty impressive ensemble mean.

 

And the end of the run is retrograding Scandinavian blocking to Greenland.

[Allsnow]

How much snowfall does nyc have now? 

[EastonSN+]

15 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Eps looks snowy. Didn't look at the Canadian. This is a pretty impressive ensemble mean.

 

And the end of the run is retrograding Scandinavian blocking to Greenland.

Nice. Looks like a positive EPO but also a positive PNA. SE ridge to provide moisture.

Not sure if that look is cold enough would be my only concern.

[bluewave]

Who could have guessed after the raging polar vortex last winter that the AO would be negative nearly every day of this winter?

2020 12  1  0.236
2020 12  2 -0.011
2020 12  3 -1.188
2020 12  4 -1.713
2020 12  5 -1.363
2020 12  6 -1.468
2020 12  7 -1.555
2020 12  8 -1.108
2020 12  9 -1.002
2020 12 10 -1.395
2020 12 11 -2.139
2020 12 12 -2.657
2020 12 13 -2.813
2020 12 14 -2.857
2020 12 15 -2.937
2020 12 16 -2.760
2020 12 17 -2.260
2020 12 18 -1.736
2020 12 19 -1.125
2020 12 20 -0.884
2020 12 21 -1.214
2020 12 22 -1.739
2020 12 23 -1.511
2020 12 24 -0.451
2020 12 25  0.226
2020 12 26 -0.467
2020 12 27 -2.752
2020 12 28 -3.197
2020 12 29 -2.516
2020 12 30 -2.602
2020 12 31 -2.949
2021  1  1 -2.909
2021  1  2 -2.685
2021  1  3 -2.427
2021  1  4 -3.069
2021  1  5 -3.418
2021  1  6 -3.436
2021  1  7 -2.995
2021  1  8 -2.895
2021  1  9 -2.602
2021  1 10 -1.611
2021  1 11 -0.849
2021  1 12 -0.650
2021  1 13 -0.909
2021  1 14 -2.176
2021  1 15 -2.515
2021  1 16 -1.796
2021  1 17 -1.302
2021  1 18 -1.696
2021  1 19 -1.919
2021  1 20 -2.283
2021  1 21 -2.290
2021  1 22 -2.022
2021  1 23 -2.124
2021  1 24 -2.694
2021  1 25 -3.582
2021  1 26 -3.543
2021  1 27 -3.202
2021  1 28 -2.593
2021  1 29 -2.726
2021  1 30 -2.825
2021  1 31 -2.513

[Kaner587]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Who could have guessed after the raging polar vortex last winter that the AO would be negative nearly every day of this winter?

2020 12  1  0.236
2020 12  2 -0.011
2020 12  3 -1.188
2020 12  4 -1.713
2020 12  5 -1.363
2020 12  6 -1.468
2020 12  7 -1.555
2020 12  8 -1.108
2020 12  9 -1.002
2020 12 10 -1.395
2020 12 11 -2.139
2020 12 12 -2.657
2020 12 13 -2.813
2020 12 14 -2.857
2020 12 15 -2.937
2020 12 16 -2.760
2020 12 17 -2.260
2020 12 18 -1.736
2020 12 19 -1.125
2020 12 20 -0.884
2020 12 21 -1.214
2020 12 22 -1.739
2020 12 23 -1.511
2020 12 24 -0.451
2020 12 25  0.226
2020 12 26 -0.467
2020 12 27 -2.752
2020 12 28 -3.197
2020 12 29 -2.516
2020 12 30 -2.602
2020 12 31 -2.949
2021  1  1 -2.909
2021  1  2 -2.685
2021  1  3 -2.427
2021  1  4 -3.069
2021  1  5 -3.418
2021  1  6 -3.436
2021  1  7 -2.995
2021  1  8 -2.895
2021  1  9 -2.602
2021  1 10 -1.611
2021  1 11 -0.849
2021  1 12 -0.650
2021  1 13 -0.909
2021  1 14 -2.176
2021  1 15 -2.515
2021  1 16 -1.796
2021  1 17 -1.302
2021  1 18 -1.696
2021  1 19 -1.919
2021  1 20 -2.283
2021  1 21 -2.290
2021  1 22 -2.022
2021  1 23 -2.124
2021  1 24 -2.694
2021  1 25 -3.582
2021  1 26 -3.543
2021  1 27 -3.202
2021  1 28 -2.593
2021  1 29 -2.726
2021  1 30 -2.825
2021  1 31 -2.513

Solar min finally exerting its effect???? There’s always at least one blocky winter surrounding it. Obviously that’s not the only or main driver (qpo ENSO pdo etc) but interesting nonetheless).

[nycwinter]

56 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

How much snowfall does nyc have now? 

i'm guessing since december about 32.1 inches give or take a tenth or 2..

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

How much snowfall does nyc have now? 

Around 32

[bluewave]

39 minutes ago, Kaner587 said:

Solar min finally exerting its effect???? There’s always at least one blocky winter surrounding it. Obviously that’s not the only or main driver (qpo ENSO pdo etc) but interesting nonetheless).

The record warm pool east of New England this year could be another factor.

 

 

[uncle W]

the ao is below 4sd today and heading to below 5sd...either we are going to get a real arctic blast or a bigger snowstorm this time a cold one or both...

dates..................-AO

1...01/15/1977.....-7.433...5" of snow and below zero temps followed

2...01/16/1977.....-7.331...

3...01/14/1977.....-7.311...

4...01/13/1977.....-6.520...

5...03/05/1970.....-6.365...very cold winter continued with a late March snowstorm...

6...01/19/1985.....-6.226..below zero record cold...

7...01/17/1977.....-6.168...

8...03/06/1970.....-6.114...

9...03/04/1970.....-5.918...

10 11/18/1959.....-5.896...near record cold and a snowy winter a head... 

 

11 12/21/2009.....-5.821...snowy winter...

12 01/12/1977.....-5.802...

13 01/18/1985.....-5.693...

14 03/20/2013.....-5.688...

15 01/20/1985.....-5.581...

16 12/23/2009.....-5.577...

17 11/19/1959.....-5.545...

18 01/03/2010.....-5.533...

19 03/07/1970.....-5.525...

20 03/09/1970.....-5.519...

 

21 12/22/2009.....-5.508...

22 01/04/2010.....-5.403...

23 03/21/2013.....-5.399...late season snowstorm...

24 01/02/2010.....-5.384...

25 12/20/2009.....-5.341...

26 01/11/1977.....-5.333...

27 03/08/1970.....-5.320...

28 02/05/1978.....-5.291...major blizzard followed...

29 12/29/1976.....-5.287...

30 02/13/1969.....-5.282...digging out from a major blizzard...

 

31 12/18/2010.....-5.265...major blizzard followed...

32 12/24/2009.....-5.256...

33 03/22/2013.....-5.240...

34 12/28/1976.....-5.206...very cold winter...

35 02/06/2010.....-5.205...

36 03/19/2013.....-5.193...

37 01/05/2010.....-5.180...

38 02/14/2010.....-5.132...

39 01/28/1966.....-5.130...snowstorm follows...KU 

40 03/10/1970.....-5.115...

 

41 02/15/1969.....-5.102...

42 10/18/2002.....-5.098...snowy winter follows...

43 12/25/2009.....-5.052...

44 02/06/1978.....-5.026...

45 01/21/1963.....-5.010... near record cold in a very cold winter...

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

How much snowfall does nyc have now? 

32.5” for winter 2020-21.

[rclab]

15 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

32.5” for winter 2020-21.

Good morning Don. For many years working in the IE office of the USPS I remember the senior engineers advising us on graph interpretation. If a trend was steady in direction, the base situation/operation was still in control. If, however, the data points spiked with sharp highs and lows than the situation/operation was likely out of control. I wonder how our various weather statistics would appear on a simple line graph. Maybe I rather not wonder. As always ...

 

[bluewave]

13 minutes ago, rclab said:

Good morning Don. For many years working in the IE office of the USPS I remember the senior engineers advising us on graph interpretation. If a trend was steady in direction, the base situation/operation was still in control. If, however, the data points spiked with sharp highs and lows than the situation/operation was likely out of control. I wonder how our various weather statistics would appear on a simple line graph. Maybe I rather not wonder. As always ...

 

Yeah, we are now in the all or nothing snowfall era. 
 

All years...................09-10, 10-11, 12-13, 13-14, 14-15, 15-16, 16-17, 17-18, 20-21

Nothing years..........11-12, 18-19,19-20

Islip seasonal snowfall since 2010

 

[wdrag]

2 hours ago, crossbowftw3 said:

The craziest part of all of this is that these all read off as minor-moderate events at their best...definitely showing how you don’t need big storm after big storm to keep piling on the snow 

Agreed... especially with little melting.  Once this is done, hopefully it goes out slow, not with 3" of rain in March/April.  Will try to add SWE. NOHRSC seems to be inconsistently  up on connectivity. 

[donsutherland1]

29 minutes ago, rclab said:

Good morning Don. For many years working in the IE office of the USPS I remember the senior engineers advising us on graph interpretation. If a trend was steady in direction, the base situation/operation was still in control. If, however, the data points spiked with sharp highs and lows than the situation/operation was likely out of control. I wonder how our various weather statistics would appear on a simple line graph. Maybe I rather not wonder. As always ...

 

There’s a lot more variability now. It’s a different climate regime than it was even 30 years ago.

[snowman19]

3 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Nice. Looks like a positive EPO but also a positive PNA. SE ridge to provide moisture.

Not sure if that look is cold enough would be my only concern.

That’s actually not a good look. The EPO is raging positive, the PAC floodgates are going to be wide open and you’re going to have Pacific maritime air flooding Canada, all that -NAO would do is trap PAC garbage