MJO812 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 High ratio snow on the Euro for Friday 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, MJO812 said: High ratio snow on the Euro for Friday [snipped] What'd it show for Tuesday?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Taken with a grain of salt. My Wunderground forecast is calling for 24+ of snow, not counting today, till Feb. 22nd. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Correct me if I am wrong but our snowiest winters are la nina's? 95/96, 2010/2011, 2020/2021?. If true give me a LA Nina Winter with blocking any day. El Nino are to warm especially in our new climate. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 ECM has light snow Tue and more significant snow Thu-Fri and next Weekend, whatever this pattern is the one we should root for (not awfully cold but tons of storms tracking to our SE) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Eps agrees Snowy week ahead 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 pretty good agreement with all members of the ao forecast going to-5sd...then rises to near neutral...are we going to get another big one?...its a great signal...we'll see. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Clown range but HRRR drops 4-5" overnight Monday into Tuesday morning for the metro. So let's see we have Tuesday, Thursday/Friday, Sunday, and likely something beyond that. Biggest potential in terms of snowfall amounts is next weekend with PNA rising and NAO/AO going up. -5 AO too before it rises, which is very significant. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: Clown range but HRRR drops 4-5" overnight Monday into Tuesday morning for the metro. So let's see we have Tuesday, Thursday/Friday, Sunday, and likely something beyond that. Biggest potential in terms of snowfall amounts is next weekend with PNA rising and NAO/AO going up. -5 AO too before it rises, which is very significant. Yeah that HRRR run is pretty nuts. It’s crazy how the NAM really hates that event still though it has come south and is juicier than it was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 When I said last weekend we were probably due in next 10-15 years for an 09-10 DC or Boston’s historic winter a few years back I didn’t expect to possibly see it over an entire month not within 15 days potentially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 The makings of a 50" snow total for this month?: With this onslaught, as Arctic fronts spar with the SE Ridge, we can add this 30" to the 15" prior to today, and have another few days to get to 50". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gmendevils8204 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 49 minutes ago, bluewave said: This has to be one of the most fully loaded EPS runs for snow that we have seen. The EPS is one snowstorm after another right into mid to late February. I don’t know where the snow removal crews are going to pile up all the snow. Some of the individual members are off the charts. The right lane on a lot of roads will be out of commission for awhile. Will also need to be extra cautious making turns with the huge piles in so many spots. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 More snow Tuesday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Snow moves back into the area Thurs. morning predawn on the GFS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: Looks like the pattern is trying to make up for the lack of snow last two seasons in just one month. The only thing we'll have to watch is suppression especially given a -5 AO 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just got a look at that 12z Euro. That has to be about as fun of a run end to end as you could ask for. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 hour ago, gmendevils8204 said: The right lane on a lot of roads will be out of commission for awhile. Will also need to be extra cautious making turns with the huge piles in so many spots. Yeah my wife told me to call the town and tell them only one car could get through to the local highway....I called and got a recording saying we are busy and don't throw your snow in the street. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Tuesday shifted south on the Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Today's storm brought a large swath of 4"-8" snows with some locally higher amounts to the New York City region. Even heavier amounts were reported in parts of New England. Select accumulations included: Bridgeport: 7.4" East Killingly, CT: 9.6" Islip: 5.1" New York City: 4.5" Newark: 5.6" Norfolk, MA: 12.0" Sharon, MA: 12.0" Syosset (1 N), NY: 8.4" Westwood (1 NNE), NJ: 9.1" Another light snow event could affect parts of the region on Tuesday. Up in Canada's Nunavut Province, temperatures will reach record high levels tomorrow through at least Monday. That push of exceptional warmth will dislodge a frigid Arctic air mass currently located over northwestern Canada. That cold air mass will likely enter the Northern Plains States early next week. Afterward, it could slowly advance eastward and possibly reach the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions just before mid-month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.71°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.03°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through meteorological winter. The SOI was +13.26 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -3.730 today. On February 6 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.145 (RMM). The February 5-adjusted amplitude was 2.115. Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely through the second week of February. The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Since January 1, New York City has picked up 22.0" snow. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 80% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal February. February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 32.5°. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 some years with similar snowfalls around this date...the 1970's are well represented... 2/6-7/1972.....4.7"... 2/8/1974.........6.0"... 2/5-6/1976.....4.0"... 2/7/1979.........5.0"... 2/7-8/1986.....4.5"... 2/7/2003.........5.3"... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 9 hours ago, HVSnowLover said: ECM has light snow Tue and more significant snow Thu-Fri and next Weekend, whatever this pattern is the one we should root for (not awfully cold but tons of storms tracking to our SE) max cold dives into the mid west we get the snow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Today's storm brought a large swath of 4"-8" snows with some locally higher amounts to the New York City region. Even heavier amounts were reported in parts of New England. Select accumulations included: Bridgeport: 7.4" East Killingly, CT: 9.6" Islip: 5.1" New York City: 4.5" Newark: 5.6" Norfolk, MA: 12.0" Sharon, MA: 12.0" Syosset (1 N), NY: 8.4" Westwood (1 NNE), NJ: 9.1" Another light snow event could affect parts of the region on Tuesday. Up in Canada's Nunavut Province, temperatures will reach record high levels tomorrow through at least Monday. That push of exceptional warmth will dislodge a frigid Arctic air mass currently located over northwestern Canada. That cold air mass will likely enter the Northern Plains States early next week. Afterward, it could slowly advance eastward and possibly reach the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions just before mid-month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.71°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.03°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through meteorological winter. The SOI was +13.26 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -3.730 today. On February 6 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.145 (RMM). The February 5-adjusted amplitude was 2.115. Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely through the second week of February. The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Since January 1, New York City has picked up 22.0" snow. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 80% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal February. February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 32.5°. People are telling me "global warming" isn't real because of this bout of cold lol. This is exactly why it's called climate change and not global warming. One asked me how could we be having all this sustained cold when he had been told we could never get this kind of weather again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Today's storm brought a large swath of 4"-8" snows with some locally higher amounts to the New York City region. Even heavier amounts were reported in parts of New England. Select accumulations included: Bridgeport: 7.4" East Killingly, CT: 9.6" Islip: 5.1" New York City: 4.5" Newark: 5.6" Norfolk, MA: 12.0" Sharon, MA: 12.0" Syosset (1 N), NY: 8.4" Westwood (1 NNE), NJ: 9.1" Another light snow event could affect parts of the region on Tuesday. Up in Canada's Nunavut Province, temperatures will reach record high levels tomorrow through at least Monday. That push of exceptional warmth will dislodge a frigid Arctic air mass currently located over northwestern Canada. That cold air mass will likely enter the Northern Plains States early next week. Afterward, it could slowly advance eastward and possibly reach the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions just before mid-month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.71°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.03°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through meteorological winter. The SOI was +13.26 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -3.730 today. On February 6 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.145 (RMM). The February 5-adjusted amplitude was 2.115. Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely through the second week of February. The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Since January 1, New York City has picked up 22.0" snow. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 80% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal February. February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 32.5°. dont forget that 7" at JFK Don! Maybe the NYC/LGA numbers are off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 7 hours ago, bluewave said: This has to be one of the most fully loaded EPS runs for snow that we have seen. The EPS is one snowstorm after another right into mid to late February. I don’t know where the snow removal crews are going to pile up all the snow. Some of the individual members are off the charts. did anyone predict this kind of blocking? what happened? think we'll see the kind of fantasy storm we've been talking about for a few years (a benchmark track all snow slow moving triple phaser that drops 40" of snow here lol.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: People are telling me "global warming" isn't real because of this bout of cold lol. This is exactly why it's called climate change and not global warming. One asked me how could we be having all this sustained cold when he had been told we could never get this kind of weather again. Yeah they always do this. One month of cold/snow doesn't negate the dozens of very warm months before it. Dec/Jan were still several degrees above normal. However we are also getting a highly anomalous pattern that likely has something to do with climate change. lengthy blocking, a cold/snowy Feb La Nina. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 8 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Clown range but HRRR drops 4-5" overnight Monday into Tuesday morning for the metro. So let's see we have Tuesday, Thursday/Friday, Sunday, and likely something beyond that. Biggest potential in terms of snowfall amounts is next weekend with PNA rising and NAO/AO going up. -5 AO too before it rises, which is very significant. thats presidents day weekend right? it's early this year? or the weekend after, around the 20th which was also being highlighted by some? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Yeah they always do this. One month of cold/snow doesn't negate the dozens of very warm months before it. Dec/Jan were still several degrees above normal. However we are also getting a highly anomalous pattern that likely has something to do with climate change. lengthy blocking, a cold/snowy Feb La Nina. yeah this is pretty crazy and reminds me of 2009-10 and 2010-11, and one was an el nino and the other a la nina so this is something much bigger than enso....this is some sort of stuck pattern that keeps amplifying itself. imagine if we had a runaway greenhouse effect and the pattern kept getting stronger and stronger in a chain reaction? people wonder how the Great Red Spot on Jupiter is a permanent feature- imagine having a permanent Cat 5 hurricane or snowstorm roaming the planet for thousands of years lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 36 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: dont forget that 7" at JFK Don! Maybe the NYC/LGA numbers are off? Final at JFK: 6.9”. It was a nice storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 49 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Final at JFK: 6.9”. It was a nice storm. Wow. They made up for lost time. 6.0 here and 24 in 7 days. Incredible snow pack. @snowman19 thanks for the Niña pattern 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxSnowWx37 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Season snowfall so far for my location and for most of the borough of the bronx is already at 35+ inches of snow. Possibilities of more snow are also increasing on most models.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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