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February 2021


snowman19
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The last 8 days of February are averaging 34degs.(29/39), or -3.0.

Month to date is 31.6[-2.9].          February should end near  32.3  or about -3.0.

The first 9 days of March are averaging 45degs.(37/53), about +5.0 or +6.0, by contrast.

The only Snow is about 2" near the 22nd.

GFS, is still trying to re-create March 1-2, 1914, however. >957mb to 961mb in NYC.    The TeleConnections do not look good for this time: PNA hopelessly -,  NAO&EPO are nueutral.       Week 2 looks better.

The fans that were never there have left the corona virus stands.      It is Over.       Get ready for the hottest summer in history, because it is  unfortunately an 11-Year Solar Cycle Job.

24*(65%RH) here at 6am.      26* by 8am.     27* by 9am.        35* by 2pm.       39* by 4pm.       40*  at 4:30pm.         33* by 8pm.

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We are finally on track for a colder winter month. This will be only the 4th colder winter month since the historic +13.3 December 2015. But we needed an extreme -AO pattern to pull it off.

NYC

Dec 15....+13.3

Jan 16....+1.9

Feb 16....+2.4

Dec 16....+0.8

Jan 17....+5.4

Feb 17....+6.3

Dec 17....-2.5

Jan 18.....-0.8

Feb 18....+6.7

Dec 18....+2.6

Jan 19....-0.1

Feb 19....+0.9

Dec 19....+0.8

Jan 20....+6.5

Feb 20....+4.8

Dec 20.....+1.7

Jan 21.....+2.2

Feb 21.....-2.9

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  On 2/21/2021 at 1:05 PM, MJO812 said:

Winter as a whole looks to be over. Maybe an early March event but the pattern doesn't scream winter to me.

 

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I’m more than satisfied if that’s the case. Actually starting to look forward to the warmer weather. Will be nice to get back outside since so many other things aren’t available to us right now.

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Morning thoughts...

Today will be partly to mostly sunny and cold. Temperatures will likely top out in the lower and middle 30s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 36°

Newark: 36°

Philadelphia: 37°

A period of rain or snow changing to rain is likely tomorrow. Some accumulation is likely, especially north and west of New York City. New York City could receive a small accumulation. The remainder of the week will likely see readings generally somewhat above seasonal norms.

Meanwhile, parts of China, Japan, and South Korea experienced historic February warmth earlier today. At Beijing, the temperature soared to 79°. That broke the February mark of 69° set just yesterday. The prior record was 68°, which was set on February 13, 1996.

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Februaries have become really frontloaded for snow since 2011.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Ending Date
Total Snowfall Feb 1 to Feb 14
Missing Count
2021-02-14 21.2 0
2020-02-14 T 0
2019-02-14 1.2 0
2018-02-14 0.5 0
2017-02-14 9.4 0
2016-02-14 2.6 0
2015-02-14 6.3 0
2014-02-14 25.7 0
2013-02-14 12.2 0
2012-02-14 0.2 0
2011-02-14 1.6 0


 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Ending Date
Total Snowfall Feb 15 to Feb 28
Missing Count
2021-02-28 4.4 8
2020-02-29 0.0 0
2019-02-28 1.4 0
2018-02-28 4.4 0
2017-02-28 0.0 0
2016-02-29 1.4 0
2015-02-28 7.3 0
2014-02-28 3.3 0
2013-02-28 T 0
2012-02-29 T 0
2011-02-28 3.2 0
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  On 2/21/2021 at 12:40 PM, bluewave said:

We are finally on track for a colder winter month. This will be only the 4th colder winter month since the historic +13.3 December 2015. But we needed an extreme -AO pattern to pull it off.

NYC

Dec 15....+13.3

Jan 16....+1.9

Feb 16....+2.4

Dec 16....+0.8

Jan 17....+5.4

Feb 17....+6.3

Dec 17....-2.5

Jan 18.....-0.8

Feb 18....+6.7

Dec 18....+2.6

Jan 19....-0.1

Feb 19....+0.9

Dec 19....+0.8

Jan 20....+6.5

Feb 20....+4.8

Dec 20.....+1.7

Jan 21.....+2.2

Feb 21.....-2.9

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January should have been colder but the cold was on the other side of the globe. The -ao was not help for that month. 

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  On 2/21/2021 at 2:31 PM, Allsnow said:

Seasonal forecasting has become meaningless now. The enso state is just a small piece of the puzzle. You need to wait until the end of December to see what the Pv and mjo look like. Coming into December everyone was calling for a torch Niña February. 

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Majority of the long range forecasts had a warm winter with below average snowfall for the majority of the east coast.

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  On 2/21/2021 at 2:31 PM, Allsnow said:

Seasonal forecasting has become meaningless now. The enso state is just a small piece of the puzzle. You need to wait until the end of December to see what the Pv and mjo look like. Coming into December everyone was calling for a torch Niña February. 

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True-  Feb will end up below normal temp wise and close to historic for snow.   Who had that?  

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  On 2/21/2021 at 2:29 PM, Allsnow said:

January should have been colder but the cold was on the other side of the globe. The -ao was not help for that month. 

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This was only our 4th winter with a -1 or lower AO for each of the 3 winter moths. But notice how much more south based this one was vs the previous 3. So that made this the warmest winter of the 4.

20-21

05176534-2ADD-4EA9-B2BA-5E1F22D6FC1C.gif.a22f63075b84d40ac12fd3712c26830c.gif
09-10

1B475AD1-7B26-48F4-BF4C-EEA0262E6AF0.gif.0bc7bba7039c570d456435d4dcf0b0c3.gif

76-77

21710316-17B0-42C1-A218-E975FC38581D.gif.8a1f3935596e17e104f7b25e7c3ced8e.gif

69-70

34B82F52-9FC5-40E1-B3D8-74E73E7A59E1.gif.6932e25e77b90b6f54dd797c3080b020.gif

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  On 2/21/2021 at 2:52 PM, bluewave said:

This was only our 4th winter with a -1 or lower AO for each of the 3 winter moths. But notice how much more south based this one was vs the previous 3. So that made this the warmest winter of the 4.

20-21

05176534-2ADD-4EA9-B2BA-5E1F22D6FC1C.gif.a22f63075b84d40ac12fd3712c26830c.gif
09-10

1B475AD1-7B26-48F4-BF4C-EEA0262E6AF0.gif.0bc7bba7039c570d456435d4dcf0b0c3.gif

76-77

21710316-17B0-42C1-A218-E975FC38581D.gif.8a1f3935596e17e104f7b25e7c3ced8e.gif

69-70

34B82F52-9FC5-40E1-B3D8-74E73E7A59E1.gif.6932e25e77b90b6f54dd797c3080b020.gif

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09-10 was pretty mild? I remember ever event was a KU but really no artic air that year 

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  On 2/21/2021 at 3:15 PM, Allsnow said:

09-10 was pretty mild? I remember ever event was a KU but really no artic air that year 

Expand  

It was colder than this winter. But the coldest departures were in the Southeast. 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Season
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
2020-2021 35.2 8

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Season
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
2009-2010 33.8 0
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  On 2/21/2021 at 3:20 PM, bluewave said:

It was colder than this winter. But the coldest departures were in the Southeast. 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Season
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
2020-2021 35.2 8

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Season
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
2009-2010 33.8 0
Expand  

Funny how this winter played similar to 09-10. We had one event in December then the snow didn’t return until February. Hopefully we get a warm march Like 2010 

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  On 2/21/2021 at 3:22 PM, Allsnow said:

Funny how this winter played similar to 09-10. We had one event in December then the snow didn’t return until February. Hopefully we get a warm march Like 2010 

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Yeah, we just didn’t have the supercharged STJ. The south based blocking seems to have helped to tuck in the storm tracks more than normal. The ridging poking down just east of New England allowed storms to track closer to Southern NJ. It also probably helped to give us about a degree or two of warming. My guess is that we would have the 50”+ of snow like Allentown as of today had the blocking been a little less south based.

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  On 2/21/2021 at 1:48 PM, MJO812 said:

Not good for winter lovers 

20210221_084703.jpg

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I'm looking forward to the mild weather and am ready for things to melt. 

Based on tellies March should end up very warm but with all these crazy factors and seasonal changes in play you just never know. 

For all we know the month will torch with a random blizzard squeezed in somewhere.

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  On 2/21/2021 at 3:29 PM, bluewave said:

Yeah, we just didn’t have the supercharged STJ. The south based blocking seems to have helped to tuck in the storm tracks more than normal. The ridging poking down just east of New England allowed storms to track closer to Southern NJ. It also probably helped to give us about a degree or two of warming. My guess is that we would have the 50”+ of snow like Allentown as of today had the blocking been a little less south based.

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Every storm took like 2-3 days to move out. I never remember a winter where it would snow for so long after the maine event 

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