LibertyBell Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 18 minutes ago, bluewave said: It certainly does make long range seasonal forecasting more interesting. Looks like the oceans have warmed to the point that it’s interfering with the expected ENSO responses. Absent better seasonal models and more computer power, seasonal forecasts will be even more challenging than they were before. will we have to start thinking about Atlantic SST cycles too? I remember when warmer Atlantic waters were in our favor because it caused faster bombing systems, has that warming gone too far now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: will we have to start thinking about Atlantic SST cycles too? I remember when warmer Atlantic waters were in our favor because it caused faster bombing systems, has that warming gone too far now? Yeah, Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Ocean warming are all important. We just don’t have the seasonal forecast models that can accurately handle those interactions. Sometimes one model may get a part of the forecast right. But miss other important drivers. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 there are different ways la nina winters play out...most of the time if January is very cold February isn't...examples 1964-65...2008-09...Dec and Jan cold...Feb isn't...examples 1955-56...2000-01...then there are the ones that start mild and gradually get colder...Dec mild...Jan not as mild...Feb is cold...examples...1971-72...1973-74...March is always the wild card... some times March is a comeback month when February is mild...examples 1955-56...1983-84...2017-18... edit...winters like 1988-89 and 2005-06 had cold Decembers...Mild Januarys...Colder february's... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 8 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Ocean warming are all important. We just don’t have the seasonal forecast models that can accurately handle those interactions. Sometimes one model may get a part of the forecast right. But miss other important drivers. Isn't the IO warming faster than any other ocean, Chris? If that's the case then it may be having downstream effects on the Pacific and so forth. MJO Phase 8 is becoming rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 6 minutes ago, uncle W said: there are different ways la nina winters play out...most of the time if January is very cold February isn't...examples 1964-65...2008-09...Dec and Jan cold...Feb isn't...examples 1955-56...2000-01...then there are the ones that start mild and gradually get colder...Dec mild...Jan not as mild...Feb is cold...examples...1971-72...1973-74...March is always the wild card... some times March is a comeback month when February is mild...examples 1955-56...1983-84...2017-18... 1995-96, 2010-11 and 2017-18 are my three favorites! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Isn't the IO warming faster than any other ocean, Chris? If that's the case then it may be having downstream effects on the Pacific and so forth. MJO Phase 8 is becoming rare. The North Atlantic can influence the Indian Ocean also. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 Just now, bluewave said: The North Atlantic can influence the Indian Ocean also. The world is round so it's natural that everything is interconnected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 3 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: I only need 1 inch to get to 40. Hope it works out might get it this evening.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 This is just one of those winters where it wants to snow in nyc. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: 1995-96, 2010-11 and 2017-18 are my three favorites! all three winters were cold in Dec and Jan but Feb was somewhat milder...2018 was very mild...2011 didn't have a March like 96 or 2018... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 Gfs has the storm a week from now, it’s just in the Carolinas as of now. Curious to see if that trends further north to our area over the next few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 34 minutes ago, uncle W said: all three winters were cold in Dec and Jan but Feb was somewhat milder...2018 was very mild...2011 didn't have a March like 96 or 2018... yes 1996 was my all time favorite. I like breaks in the wintry pattern and nature cleaning up the snow before a fresh batch falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 34 minutes ago, Brett said: Even if this pattern comes to an end next week like some are saying and it looks likely it will this has been quite the wild last three weeks lol NYC has 38 inches, I think they'll easily get another 2 inches at some point to reach 40.....we've had 4 inch snowstorms in March before with temps above freezing during the day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 23 minutes ago, weatherfreeeeak said: Gfs has the storm a week from now, it’s just in the Carolinas as of now. Curious to see if that trends further north to our area over the next few days Keeps showing up on most models each run now in one location or another - lets see if any of the models that are currently suppressed start trending north....watch that HP to the north an important ingredient in all of this......... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 Regarding the seasonal prognostication discourse, as someone who has been engaging in biannual long range outlooks (summer, winter) since 2006-07, with a high degree of success, I would state that the outcome which occurred this winter as it pertains to the AO domain in particular, (to a lesser extent the NAO), is very rare statistically speaking, wrt the indicators I analyze. The type of atmospheric alteration which occurred Nov-Dec and at the magnitude at which it occurred, was a nigh impossibility when considering the 1950-2020 indicator data. I expected the PNA+ outcome (Dec/Jan +, Feb -) and EPO+, and thought the NAO would go + Dec, - Jan, +Feb (but the DJF will be negative, a miss), and the AO severely negative was a major derogation from expectations. My formula that I utilize which incorporates several disparate variables and prognosticates the NAO at circa 90% success did not foresee this, thus, this AO-NAO outcome to me was a true curveball in the sense that the indicators actually supported an opposite average DJF outcome for the modality of the NAO-AO. I've determined upon analysis that the salient variables which emerged, in my view at least, could have only been potentially foreseen if I had waited another 10 days or so to write my winter outlook. There were red flags I noticed later in November that suggested the AO may not be positive for the winter. Overall, a very fascinating winter from the standpoint of atmospheric and oceanic nina-esque and nino-esque imprints. The SSW was a wildcard which disturbed the timing of the temperature progression, although the winter will average warmer than normal as I thought. I would hypothesize that a displacement outcome rather than a split may have allowed the colder January I thought would occur, but we ended up with a split, and a rather benign pattern for our -NAO month in January. The major stratospheric warming event was another highly unusual outcome given certain precursor signals, but the indicators did favor a perturbed and weak tropospheric vortex for January. 7 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: might get it this evening.... We did it we did it. 40! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 With today's additional snowfall, monthly snowfall totals have reached the following amounts in select cities: Allentown: 34.7" (3rd snowiest February) Bridgeport: 29.8" (4th snowiest February) Islip: 23.8" (6th snowiest February) New York City-JFK: 26.0" (3rd snowiest February) New York City-LGA: 22.5" (6th snowiest February) New York City-NYC: 25.6" (8th snowiest February) Newark: 29.4" (5th snowiest February) A fair and cold weekend now lies ahead. In response to the Arctic Oscillation's having gone positive, a pattern change will likely occur early next week. The advance of the milder air could be preceded by a storm that could bring some rain or snow changing to rain to parts of the region. Following the shift in the prevailing pattern, a period of warmer than normal temperatures is likely in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.2°C for the week centered around February 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.50°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.00°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through mid-March. The SOI was +22.82 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.829 today On February 18 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.477 (RMM). The February 17-adjusted amplitude was 1.901. Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely through the end of February. The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Since January 1, New York City has picked up 27.7" snow. Winters that saw December receive 10" or more snow, less than 10" in January, and then 10" or more in February in New York City, saw measurable snowfall in March or April in 83% of cases. Winter 2009-2010 was the exception where only a trace of snow was recorded. This group of winters saw 6" or more snow during the March-April period in 50% of the cases. All said, it is more likely than not that there will be measurable snowfall after February. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 92% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal February. February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 33.0° (2.3° below normal). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 I don't know if CP can rise from #8 snowiest FEB on record, but we may give it a good try to go at least #5. Am not yet quite ready to start a new thread, but thinking on two, one 26-28; which has CFS-V16 support. Beyond Feb, March 4-6 has some nterest. (NAEFS) Both above may be only interior nw of I95 but winter is not done. Wetter snows with near or somewhat above normal temps to start the first week of March from what I can gather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 31degs.(26/36), or -5.0. Maybe 1" of snow on the 22nd. then nothing in the City. First 8 days of March averaging 42degs.(35/49) by comparison as of now. The just updated 90-Day Outlooks have Spring at 2.2:1 for AN. The Summer is still a whopping 4.5:1 favorite for AN. EURO TeleC's are all awful for the next 15 days. MJO needs some Geritol. The EURO WEEKLIES are no better than this either. After a Week 1 BN, the next 5 consecutive Weeks are AN. Even making all precipitation into snow at a 10 to 1 ratio, we'd barely reach 6", and most of this precipitation comes when 850mb. T >0C at any rate. It is going to be an Anti-Log setup to produce a big one. An accident. 29*(67%RH) here at 6am. 28* at 6:30am. 33* by Noon. 34* by 1pm. 36* at 4pm. 29* by 10pm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 Will attempt a decently worded thread of Feb 26-March 1 at 11A. Definitely interesting potential. March 4-6 has interest but nothing on this for a few days (NAEFS). Both above may be only interior nw of I95 but winter is not done. Wetter snows (rain coasts?) with seasonable temps Monday the 22nd through the first week of March with a somewhat unstable 500 mb pattern developing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 This has been the one of the most tucked in storm track snowy winters of the last 30 years. Very unusual for NYC not to have 50” when ABE does. So you can see how rare it is to have a snowy season with the storm tracks so close to Southern NJ. Time Series Summary for Allentown Area, PA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date ABE Snowfall NYC Snowfall 1 1994-04-30 75.2 53.4 2 1996-04-30 71.4 75.6 3 2014-04-30 68.1 57.4 4 2010-04-30 59.8 51.4 5 2003-04-30 54.4 49.3 6 2021-04-30 53.2 38.2 7 2015-04-30 50.1 50.3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 All of this said this morning: I don't see an end to the snow thread(t)s yet. Just not getting a persistent big ridge in the se USA and all the warming seems to be shunted south as we draw closer to the proposed warmed events. Note the southward displacements of the max snow axis in recent long range modeled further north events. The 06z/20 GEFS actually has 2-3 members of a closed low here about March 1. LOTS of spread and so, with climo, you'd think NYC so far, no advy-warnable even,t but I do think one or the other for I84 in this 26 Feb-March 1 time frame. What it is? Gotta run... i dont want to get LI/NYC coast wise of I95 disappointed and so think mostly rain there, but lots tbd. All i know, is something significant (small ensemble signal) is probably coming to our forum the end of the month and I think also in that 3/4-6 time frame. Noting the first 18 days of the month (HPRCC), above normal precipitation in our forum. Most of it snow or ice. NWS updates it flood potential outlooks March 4th, when I think we'll have a better idea of how this is all going out. For now, the CPC week 3-4 update beginning March 6 is below normal pcpn, is below normal qpf w above normal temps. That's good, lessening flood potential. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 Morning thoughts... At 8:55 am, an area of light snow was moving southward over central Long Island. Snow was falling at Huntington Station, Smithtown, Brentwood, and Patchogue. The snow will end later this morning with the sun returning. Elsewhere, the region will be partly sunny and cold. Temperatures will likely top out in the lower and middle 30s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 33° Newark: 34° Philadelphia: 33° Tomorrow will be another fair and cold day. Next week could see the development of a sustained milder pattern. That milder air could be preceded by some rain or snow changing to rain. Some accumulation is possible, especially north and west of New York City. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 This glacier is not going to melt for a while. Just 13” of ice all over the place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 Last chance during the 1st week of March before mud season appears ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 50° is about the warmest that we can do over the next week. So EWR should remain near the top 5 lowest max temperature for Jan and Feb. We’ll have to see if Newark can sneak in higher than 53° before the end of the month. Very odd to have such a low maximum temperature with a mild average DJF above freezing. KEWR GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 2/20/2021 0000 UTC FHR 24| 36 48| 60 72| 84 96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192 SAT 20| SUN 21| MON 22| TUE 23| WED 24| THU 25| FRI 26| SAT 27 CLIMO X/N 34| 19 38| 24 41| 33 45| 36 50| 36 44| 25 38| 21 41 27 45 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Highest Max Temperature Jan 1 to Feb 28 DJF Average Temperature 1 1969-02-28 48 31.7° 2 1941-02-28 50 32.1° 3 1968-02-29 51 32.0° - 1963-02-28 51 29.4° 4 2003-02-28 52 30.7° 5 2021-02-28 53 34.4° 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Last chance during the 1st week of March before mud season appears ? I kind of see the above as a 1 to 2 week break before AO goes negative and PNA goes neutral positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 23 minutes ago, Brett said: 2 weeks after that would be mid March I would think time would be starting to run out at that point March can be historically snowy. 2 years ago March was our snowiest month. 3 years ago was absolutely historic with a 6 plus in April. 4 years ago a big 6 to 12. 2015 4 4 to 8 snowstorms. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: It will be interesting to see if NYC can get more than 4.3” of snow in March. This is only the 4th year since 48-49 with more than 10” of snow for NYC during Dec and Feb with so little in Jan. While the sample is very small, this type of winter snowfall distribution has been very rare since 48-49. Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 2020-2021 0.0 0.0 10.5 2.1 25.6 M M 38.2 2009-2010 0.0 0.0 12.4 2.1 36.9 T 0.0 51.4 2002-2003 T T 11.0 4.7 26.1 3.5 4.0 49.3 1948-1949 0.0 T 25.3 1.8 10.7 4.2 0.0 42.0 Honestly March is so volatile it's always a coin toss. MJO page has not updated however the teles late with the PNA rise and AO fall seem to line up with yesterday s depiction of MJO heading into low 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 Delayed new thread til 4P. Just want another look at the very uncertain ensemble info. 27th is out of that 26-March 1 period. Rest okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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