jm1220 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Amazing how Central Park has 32.5” this season and Syracuse only 47.6”. Also more snow on the ground down here vs there. Also around 32” now for the season in Huntington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 15 minutes ago, bluewave said: This big a swing from the exact date last year is unprecedented. The +AO almost made it to +6. Just ridiculous volatility for two consecutive Februaries. 2020 2 9 5.765 2020 2 10 5.910 What are your thoughts on the large AO spike? Do you think it will drop again or is this the start of the break down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 14 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Question is can February reach or exceed 30" of snow or even 40".....we're going to get past 20" this month before Valentine's Day! Heck, we're not even 10 days into the month yet! 30” is still the on the table. A lot will depend on the second half of the month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 A weak system tracked somewhat farther to the north than had been modeled. As a result, accumulating snow was confined to the north and west of New York City and its nearby suburbs. The 0z HREF did well to catch the shift in snowfall. Following the departure of this weak system, tomorrow should be partly sunny. Temperatures will run several degrees below normal. Afterward, another light snowfall is possible on Thursday and/or Friday particularly from central Pennsylvania to central New Jersey and southward. Meanwhile, parts of western Canada experienced near record cold and record cold temperatures. Minimum temperatures included: Burwash Landing, YT: -49°;Carmacks, YT: -56° (old record: -54°, 2008); Dease Lake, BC: -43° (old record: -28°, 2017); Faro, YT: -50° (old record: -48°, 1979); Norman Wells, NT: -48° Whitehorse, YT: -44° That frigid air mass will slowly advance eastward and possibly reach the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions around mid-month. There is some uncertainty as to whether this air mass will move directly into the region sending temperatures into the single digits even in New York City or merely pass nearby delivering a glancing blow with single-digit cold avoiding New York City but affecting areas outside of New York City and Newark. The probability of the latter outcome has increased in recent days. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is now severely negative and at its lowest levels in more than five years. It is forecast to rise sharply toward mid-month. A dramatic increase in the AO has sometimes coincided with storminess. Therefore, the February 14-24 period might offer a window of opportunity for a meaningful storm. Details about possible storm tracks or precipitation types are premature at this point. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around February 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.00°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through meteorological winter. The SOI was +30.93 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -4.618 today. That is the lowest AO figure since the AO was -4.898 on January 16, 2016. On February 8 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.142 (RMM). The February 7-adjusted amplitude was 2.121. Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely through the middle of the third week of February. The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Since January 1, New York City has picked up 22.0" snow. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 84% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal February. February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 32.3°. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 The T has dipped below 32 by 7pm and for the next 8 days may not exceed freezing. The snow outlook is not very good till the 15th/19th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 13 hours ago, bluewave said: All the guidance continues the -AO Greenland block until further notice. Looks like a -AO gradient pattern in the immediate future. You can see the MJO 7 influence with the flat SE Ridge. suppression is also in play (a reverse gradient pattern?) as the next storm will miss us to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 20 hours ago, gravitylover said: Fairy Dust or Diamond Dust. I love that stuff. I've seen it accumulate an inch or two in the mountains when it's really cold, ultimate fluff. It's the residual moisture freezing out of the air and it tends to happen after a warm(ish) sunny day with really low RH. As the snow surface melts a bit the humidity in the lowest levels shoots way up and then the sun goes down and it's a rapid drop the dust starts to freeze out around 10-15*. Can it also happen during the day? I love that stuff too, seeing it makes me feel like I'm dreaming lol. I hope we get to see it this winter, it's very rare down here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Will update all on-going threads by 830AM except the recap of the 9th around 1030AM. OBS thread for tonight has posted. Snow and ice coming to LI the next 6 days, multiple events. The event of the 18th-19th seems warmer but significant as well and that may end this precarious balance of multiple minor-moderate events with a subfreezing cold pool in a portion of our subforum. In other words, more seasonable temps with the EPS and GEFS considerably on how much loss of the the -NAO/-AO but both are the trending milder, especially after the 18th. I have no skill determining which one prevails nor the impact of the MJO phase, but I think via NAEFS, that we're good for snow and ice in the subforum for another 8 days with a warmer trend for the 18th event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 39 minutes ago, wdrag said: Will update all on-going threads by 830AM except the recap of the 9th around 1030AM. OBS thread for tonight has posted. Snow and ice coming to LI the next 6 days, multiple events. The event of the 18th-19th seems warmer but significant as well and that may end this precarious balance of multiple minor-moderate events with a subfreezing cold pool in a portion of our subforum. In other words, more seasonable temps with the EPS and GEFS considerably on how much loss of the the -NAO/-AO but both are the trending milder, especially after the 18th. I have no skill determining which one prevails nor the impact of the MJO phase, but I think via NAEFS, that we're good for snow and ice in the subforum for another 8 days with a warmer trend for the 18th event. Walt, snowfall for 6 consecutive days on Long Island? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Walt, snowfall for 6 consecutive days on Long Island? I don't think I implied that, did I? Snows 11th, probably later 13-14 (snow to ice?), 16th. There is still an outside chance we'll see more snow than modeled for the 12th but will count on that southwest of LI. The way I see it, 3 of those 6 days will see some sort of snow accumulation whatever it is. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 24degs.(18/29), or -10.0. Up to 10" of snow possible over the next 10 days, via the major models. 27*(63%RH) at 6am/7am here. 30* by 10am. 31* at 11am. 32* by 12:30pm. 33* at 1pm. 35* at 2pm. 36* at 3pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Can it also happen during the day? I love that stuff too, seeing it makes me feel like I'm dreaming lol. I hope we get to see it this winter, it's very rare down here! Yes but it has to be, or have been, sunny enough to cause evaporation and really still air too so that the crystals can form and precipitate out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Morning thoughts... Today will be partly to mostly cloudy and somewhat colder than normal. Temperatures will likely top out in the lower and middle 30s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 32° Newark: 34° Philadelphia: 35° A weak system will pass eastward across the Middle Atlantic region. It could bring a small accumulation of snow to New York City and its nearby northern suburbs. The northward extent of 1”-3” snows will likely be across central New Jersey. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Not sure what to make of the weeklies and ensembles. NAO stays negative throughout however EPO goes positive and some guidance floods the country with above normal temps after 240 (GEPS). Definate troughing over Alaska which should flood country with Pac air. However, unlike January where Canada was void of any Arctic air, this go around it should take a while to remove the dense cold air from Eastern Canada. I guess worst case is we eventually go back to the Jan pattern with a better source region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 14 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Not sure what to make of the weeklies and ensembles. NAO stays negative throughout however EPO goes positive and some guidance floods the country with above normal temps after 240 (GEPS). Definate troughing over Alaska which should flood country with Pac air. However, unlike January where Canada was void of any Arctic air, this go around it should take a while to remove the dense cold air from Eastern Canada. I guess worst case is we eventually go back to the Jan pattern with a better source region. And remember models often rush a pattern change....that'll buy us another week to 10 days. This is working out nicely-wouldn't mind if the pattern broke around 3/10 and we headed into spring. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Looks like our first -5 AO reading during a La Niña February. The other 3 Februaries were El Niño years. 2-14-10...-5.132....2-6-10....-5.205....Niño 3.4....+1.5 2-5-78.....-5.291....................................................+0.7 2-13-69....-5.285...................................................+1.1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 2020-21 noted for snowstorms... winters with a -5sd ao... winter.......AO min. date......winter noted for... 1976-77...-7.433...01/15/1977...severe cold... 1969-70...-6.365...03/05/1970...severe cold... 1984-85...-6.226...01/19/1985...severe cold... 2009-10...-5.821...12/21/2009...snowstorms... 2012-13...-5.688...03/20/2013...Feb snowstorm... 1977-78...-5.291...02/05/1978...Jan/Feb snowstorms... 1968-69...-5.282...02/13/1969...Feb snowstorm... 2010-11...-5.172...12/18/2010...snowstorms... 1965-66...-5.130...01/28/1966...late Jan snowstorm... 1962-63...-5.010...01/21/1963...severe cold... 2015-16...-4.916...01/17/2016...Jan snowstorm... 2000-01...-4.854...02/25/2001...Dec snowstorm... 1959-60...had a -5sd in Nov...March snowstorm 2002-03...had a -5sd in Oct...snowy winter... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 The T's that were showing for NYC last week for the mid-month period seem set to happen in Texas et al instead---as even Houston gets to 0* apparently. Not even single digit hits here. This is in Houston. Maybe elevation is playing a role here. Hard to believe this is really 2M above sea level. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 When's the brutal cold arriving ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 hour ago, Dan76 said: When's the brutal cold arriving ? We are in a cold pattern hence the ice threats for next week even with storms not taking ideal tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 2 hours ago, Dan76 said: When's the brutal cold arriving ? I think that backed off-we'll be cold, but the subzero cold is not happening around here-midwest maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 3 hours ago, CIK62 said: The T's that were showing for NYC last week for the mid-month period seem set to happen in Texas et al instead---as even Houston gets to 0* apparently. Not even single digit hits here. This is in Houston. Maybe elevation is playing a role here. Hard to believe this is really 2M above sea level. the potential result of this incredible anomaly: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, bluewave said: You can see the influence of the amplified MJO phase 7 in the latest model runs. New run Old run that explained the messier storm strack with it running on the edge of that SE ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Imo would be a major letdown if we did not get at least one more 6+ snowstorm before the blocking breaks down (or blocking stays but country flooded with Pac puke) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 7 hours ago, bluewave said: Looks like our first -5 AO reading during a La Niña February. The other 3 Februaries were El Niño years. So it’s no surprise that the models continue the -AO pattern. 2-14-10...-5.132....2-6-10....-5.205....Niño 3.4....+1.5 2-5-78.....-5.291....................................................+0.7 2-13-69....-5.285...................................................+1.1 2001 was close (2000-01 la nina) 2000-01...-4.854...02/25/2001...Dec snowstorm... from Uncle How many la ninas have had a -5 SD at some point in the winter? I saw 10-11 is also in the list, but that one was in late December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: that explained the messier storm strack with it running on the edge of that SE ridge yeah if we truly had that extreme arctic air here it would very likely be frigid and dry with the storm track suppressed to the gulf coast and florida Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 9 hours ago, wdrag said: I don't think I implied that, did I? Snows 11th, probably later 13-14 (snow to ice?), 16th. There is still an outside chance we'll see more snow than modeled for the 12th but will count on that southwest of LI. The way I see it, 3 of those 6 days will see some sort of snow accumulation whatever it is. I'm seeing comparisons to Feb 1994 (which also occurred on the same date), but much shorter duration and less extreme than that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: yeah if we truly had that extreme arctic air here it would very likely be frigid and dry with the storm track suppressed to the gulf coast and florida this 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 ewr needs 3.2" for a 40" winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, forkyfork said: this when I see so much blue on the map thats what I immediately think of. It's best to be just inside the outer edge of the blue or, since we're right in the middle of winter, in the white area between the blue and red anomalies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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