LibertyBell Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 On 2/3/2021 at 6:22 PM, donsutherland1 said: Parts of the region experienced snow flurries and even some light snow. Seasonal snowfall amounts to date include: Albany: 46.4" (10.3" above normal) Baltimore: 6.1" (5.1" below normal) Binghamton: 77.4" (28.7" above normal) Boston: 24.3" (0.1" below normal) Bridgeport: 28.9" (14.6" above normal) Buffalo: 46.5" (17.2" below normal) Burlington: 44.1" (2.1" below normal) Caribou: 57.9" (4.9" below normal) Harrisburg: 24.5" (8.8" above normal) Islip: 19.5" (6.2" above normal) New York City: 28.0" (14.9" above normal) Newark: 31.1" (16.4" above normal) Philadelphia: 14.7" (3.4" above normal) Portland: 34.5" (1.2" below normal) Providence: 18.4" (1.8" below normal) Washington, DC: 3.5" (5.6" below normal) Somewhat milder air will return to the region in coming days, but its stay won't be long. Another shot of cold air will likely arrive during or after the coming weekend. Prospects of snowfall have diminished. The number of EPS members showing measurable snowfall has fallen over the past two cycles. The operational guidance also suggests that a storm will pass too far to the south and east of the region on Sunday to have much if any impact. Nevertheless, there remains some uncertainty. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.71°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.03°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through meteorological winter. The SOI was +18.01 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -2.762. On February 2 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 2.382 (RMM). The February 1-adjusted amplitude was 2.074. Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely through the middle of the second week of February. The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Since January 1, New York City has picked up 17.5" snow. Don is JFK at 20.2"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Don I heard Lee Goldberg say that this storm could be a very rare SW Nassau jackpot of 8 inches. I also really like that this will be an all day time event, those are very photogenic. Nassau County is in a good spot for this storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Don is JFK at 20.2"? JFK is 20.0”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 17 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: wow 2015 is in first place by a lot over 2011..... I remember 1968-69 did not have a 50 degree temp from late Dec to mid March... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 5 minutes ago, uncle W said: I remember 1968-69 did not have a 50 degree temp from late Dec to mid March... it must be because of that long lasting blocking. weird thing is based on how we had the Lindsey storm (over 20 inches at JFK and LGA), you'd think we should've had a much higher seasonal snowfall total than 30"...I wonder if there were a lot of close calls that winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: it must be because of that long lasting blocking. weird thing is based on how we had the Lindsey storm (over 20 inches at JFK and LGA), you'd think we should've had a much higher seasonal snowfall total than 30"...I wonder if there were a lot of close calls that winter? i think the pna was neg alot that winter...Feb max was 44 and the min19...one day was 35/34...not much range in temps in Feb 69... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Rain wasn’t much today but snowpack actually took a decent hit from the sun and temperature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 11 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Rain wasn’t much today but snowpack actually took a decent hit from the sun and temperature. Definitely lost a good amount today. You can feel the strength of the sun increasing as it actually feels warm in direct sunlight on days like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 3 hours ago, LibertyBell said: wow 112 is impressive! You must get really hot there, Ed The highest I've ever recorded is 105.6 in July 2011 which was the hottest day I've ever experienced. The previous record was 103.8 recorded just the year before during the hottest summer I ever experienced. I think the real temperature was in the 90s. The sensor was picking up heat radiating from the garage roof. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 2 hours ago, HVSnowLover said: Rain wasn’t much today but snowpack actually took a decent hit from the sun and temperature. Long Beach had at least 12” but numerous grassy patches here. More left over in Huntington before I drove down today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 5 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Long Beach had at least 12” but numerous grassy patches here. More left over in Huntington before I drove down today. the stuff that got shoveled is down to black top again but I suspect the Sunday storm will be a nice refresher. Storms like that have become rare so it'll be nice to see one like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Will add a new thread for the 9th by 8A/6. Another event seems on its way (not necessarily the 14th), but more so the 16th-17th---that one might be sizable. I do think folks I95 northwest will need to monitor roof loads, gutter damming the next two weeks for safe .. SAFE mitigation processes. Not worth a concussion, broken leg or worse but it appears to me a fair amount of wintry qpf is coming the next 12 days. Everyone for fire hydrant clearance when possible, especially late 7th, late 9th, and 13th. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 26degs.(19/33), or -8.0. GFS back to a -6! reading at mid-month. Coldest since 1943 and with about the same timing-----so it might miss being a record! Snow potential tonight into tomorrow about 3"-6" on all models. NAM way down too. Up to 16" total over next two weeks still possible. 34*(57%RH) here at 6am. 37* by 9am. 41* by 11am. 43* at Noon. 45* by 2pm. 40* by 10pm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Very active pattern this week on the euro, storm threats all week. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, HVSnowLover said: Very active pattern this week on the euro, storm threats all week. This is what happens when we get one of the strongest west based blocks for this time of year. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Morning thoughts... Through February 5, New York City has seen 15.4” snowfall for the month. With a moderate to significant snowfall likely tomorrow, Central Park could see 20” monthly snowfall for the first time in February since 2014 when 29.0” snow accumulated. Today will be mostly sunny and seasonably cold. Temperatures will likely top out in the lower 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 40° Newark: 40° Philadelphia: 44° Snow will overspread the region before sunrise tomorrow. Snow will then fall moderately to occasionally heavily at times into the afternoon. A general 4”-8” snowfall with locally higher amounts is likely. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 with 17.5" of snow since 26th NYC needs 12.5 more inches by Feb. 24th to have 30" in 30 days... 30" in 30 days... The short list... 02/24-03/24, 1896.....32.0" 02/06-03/07, 1914.....35.2" 12/26-01/24, 1948.....43.4" 01/15-02/13, 1961.....34.1" 01/16-02/14, 1978.....37.2" 02/02-03/03, 1994.....30.8" 12/14-01/12, 1996.....35.2" 01/28-02/26, 2010.....38.2" 01/07-02/05, 2011.....37.6" 01/21-02/19, 2014.....42.1" 01/17-02/15, 2016.....31.9" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 57 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Morning thoughts... Through February 5, New York City has seen 15.4” snowfall for the month. With a moderate to significant snowfall likely tomorrow, Central Park could see 20” monthly snowfall for the first time in February since 2014 when 29.0” snow accumulated. Today will be mostly sunny and seasonably cold. Temperatures will likely top out in the lower 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 40° Newark: 40° Philadelphia: 44° Snow will overspread the region before sunrise tomorrow. Snow will then fall moderately to occasionally heavily at times into the afternoon. A general 4”-8” snowfall with locally higher amounts is likely. 37 minutes ago, uncle W said: with 17.5" of snow since 26th NYC needs 12.5 more inches by Feb. 24th to have 30" in 30 days... 30" in 30 days... The short list... 02/24-03/24, 1896.....32.0" 02/06-03/07, 1914.....35.2" 12/26-01/24, 1948.....43.4" 01/15-02/13, 1961.....34.1" 01/16-02/14, 1978.....37.2" 02/02-03/03, 1994.....30.8" 12/14-01/12, 1996.....35.2" 01/28-02/26, 2010.....38.2" 01/07-02/05, 2011.....37.6" 01/21-02/19, 2014.....42.1" 01/17-02/15, 2016.....31.9" Wow! @snowman19 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 45 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Wow! @snowman19 Snowy week ahead Watch Tuesday's little event and then the big one next weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Signals of a big storm next weekend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 MJO refuses to go into phase 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 18 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: MJO refuses to go into phase 8 And yet we are getting snow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 23 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: MJO refuses to go into phase 8 It looks to die in 7 which isn't bad with blocking. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Snowy week ahead Watch Tuesday's little event and then the big one next weekend. What about Thursday? GGEM and GFS have accumulating snow that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: What about Thursday? GGEM and GFS have accumulating snow that day. That's the overunning event before the main storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: That's the overunning event before the main storm And it has decent potential due to plenty cold air in place. In addition to today's GFS and GGEM, last night's Euro also had accumulating snow Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: That's the overunning event before the main storm I'm a little weary about this one. Too much SE ridging for my liking but there should be ample cold up north to resist it. There's def a 50/50 in place and hopefully that trends stronger too. It'll likely be a redeveloper but could favor northern areas. We might see a snow to sleet/rain type storm but it's still early. I am getting a more northern/warmer PD 2 vibe though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Overrunning storms into cold airmass can sometimes be real fun but yes there is a threat of change to rain at the coast and ice inland. If you get a good track you get last weekend if you get a worse track you get above scenario. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 17 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I'm a little weary about this one. Too much SE ridging for my liking but there should be ample cold up north to resist it. There's def a 50/50 in place and hopefully that trends stronger too. It'll likely be a redeveloper but could favor northern areas. We might see a snow to sleet/rain type storm but it's still early. I am getting a more northern/warmer PD 2 vibe though. Look at the ensembles this far out instead of the ops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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