February 2021

[Allsnow]

Weeklies are a ice box for February 

[MJO812]

26 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Weeklies are a ice box for February 

They are warm for March

[donsutherland1]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

They are warm for March

Just last Thursday, they featured a lot of warmth for the week of February 8-14. March is outside their useful range. Eventually, the pattern will break. But before then there should be more cold and snow, possibly a bout of severe cold.

[Allsnow]

19 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

They are warm for March

Good. 

[White Gorilla]

41 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

They are warm for March

Sounds perfect.  Blistering winter followed by an early Spring.  We shall see. 

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Sounds perfect.  Blistering winter followed by an early Spring.  We shall see. 

Agree. I don’t want to see another cold snowy March in my lifetime 

[MJO812]

I want winter to be 12 months a year

[uncle W]

it will stay cold until the blocking breaks down...

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Well in 4 of the last 6 winters in NYC March has been the snowiest month. I doubt that happens again this year but who knows, one Blizzard of 88 redux and it's 5 of the last 7.

BTW from March 2 to April 2 2018 I had 50 inches of snow and snow cover the whole time. Why wouldn't I want that again? I think some of you need to have your snow loving credentials checked.

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 30degs.(25/35), or -4.0.

True to form, the often played and tampered with 18Z GFS, has lost our cold and snow.    This run should come with a public warning.   Shovels and plows Off/ SPF 45 On.

39*(76%RH) here at 6am.     {36* at Midnite}       41* at 7am.       Back to 40* by 9am.     43* by Noon.        45* at 1pm.      48* by 2pm---lite jacket while walking around.      Melting going on, so boots may be needed at the corners.        50* by 3pm.      51* at 4:30pm, High         42* by 10pm.

[crossbowftw3]

8 hours ago, MJO812 said:

I want winter to be 12 months a year

That’s overkill 

 

perhaps a much more useful guide on how long this pattern continues to sustain? https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:share:6763089451045535744

[ForestHillWx]

Woke up to some pretty good snow this morning. Point and click has 1-3” for us. 

[the_other_guy]

10 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

Woke up to some pretty good snow this morning. Point and click has 1-3” for us. 

Temps in urban areas already above 40.

Rain, rain and rain.

These two days were much warner than any forecast

[EasternLI]

Fab Feb if the EPS is right. Active with -nao right through. Some +pna too lol

[jm1220]

13 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

my davis hit 46!   Lost about 4-5 inches of snow due to compaction/melting.

Don’t think it got quite that warm here but some more snow on Sun would be nice. We’re losing more today too. 

[sussexcountyobs]

Snowing at home and here in Paterson, NJ

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

To date, Central Park has picked up 28.0” snow this season. As a result, New York City is on the cusp of its first 30” snow season since winter 2017-18 when 40.9” snow was recorded.

Both the AO and NAO are likely to remain negative through mid-month. The NAO is forecast to bottom out near February 8. Overall, the pattern remains favorable for Middle Atlantic and/or southern New England snow threats. 

In the first volume of their Northeast Snowstorms monograph, Paul Kocin and Louis Uccellini observed that “the weather patterns occurring during the negative phase of the NAO appear to establish conditions conducive to the formation of Northeast snowstorms, especially by locking in colder air throughout the Northeast.” They continued, “The transition period for the NAO also suggests that those conditions may ‘relax’ just prior to or during the storm.” February 7-8 continues to offer one potential timeframe for a storm threat, both based on the observations of Kocin and Uccellini and also a renewed clustering of EPS members with support from some of the operational guidance. Overall, a 2”-4”/3”-6” snowfall for Boston, Islip, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Providence with perhaps locally higher amounts appears to be a reasonable scenario. The highest amounts will likely occur from New York City eastward across Long Island and across the southern New England coastline.

Today will be mostly cloudy and seasonably cold. Some rain showers are likely near the coast while some snow and rain showers are likely well inland. Clouds could begin to break during the afternoon. Temperatures will likely top out in the lower 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 41°

Newark: 42°

Philadelphia: 45°

Tomorrow will be mainly sunny and a little cooler. Afterward, a storm will likely bring accumulating snow to the region on Sunday.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

9 hours ago, MJO812 said:

I want winter to be 12 months a year

 

1 hour ago, crossbowftw3 said:

That’s overkill 

 

perhaps a much more useful guide on how long this pattern continues to sustain? https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:share:6763089451045535744

That is overkill, 8 months would be fine.

A solid October to May winter, followed by Spring in June, a nice July & August summer, and fall in September. Which somewhat describes the high country of the Adirondacks, heaven on Earth.

[ForestHillWx]

At least 1” now with moderate snow continuing to fall. 

[North and West]

Temps in urban areas already above 40.
Rain, rain and rain.
These two days were much warner than any forecast

That’s an amazing delta. We’re at 31° with moderate to heavier snow, and MMU isn’t that far inland.


.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, EasternLI said:

Fab Feb if the EPS is right. Active with -nao right through. Some +pna too lol

It will be interesting to see if we can hold this blocking pattern right into spring. 

 

[jm1220]

15 minutes ago, North and West said:

That’s an amazing delta. We’re at 31° with moderate to heavier snow, and MMU isn’t that far inland.


.

Southerly flow off the ocean raising temps quite a bit here. Temp 40 now. 

[SnoSki14]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It will be interesting to see if we can hold this blocking pattern right into spring. 

 

These patterns have been known to persist for many months. I'm not convinced it all breaks down by March.

[wdrag]

Am on the cusp of a Topic for a potentially large event Feb 12-13, snow ice and maybe even rain.   Would like to see a little GEPS or EPS consensus. I'll add a few graphics from ensembles and hold off til either late today or tomorrow if the model vision continues. 

In essence a little WAA snow or ice on the 9th (no thread unless the snow-ice sags south to I80-LI), then turning a bit colder in advance of what appears to me to be a developing trough in the eastern USA around the 13th.  There could be a lead short wave on the 12th that splits the energy. It might be better that way because if all the energy goes into one primary, that primary might go west of us. For now am going to count on overall blocking being an assist to the colder side. Really would like to see a bigger southward dive to the trough but what you see attached should be a good start.

Have added the 00z/5 RMOP which is arguing for a trof - positive tilt for now Great Lakes southward and the comparison look from 00z/4 which had a flat w-e flow with a modest vortex over se Canada.  Thats the change in 24 hours.  

Then the 06z/5 GEFS mean trough with the blocking in eastern Canada, followed by the 06z/5 GEFS Plumes for qpf at LGA. I didn't post snow plumes because their are precip type issues so resultant snow etc is up in the air, and finally the chance of 1"+"of qpf in 48 hours...already about 60% just on the southern edge of the forum.   No guarantees that much qpf but I do think an event is coming, at least with a period of wintry precip types for part of the event.  

 

[bluewave]

21 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

These patterns have been known to persist for many months. I'm not convinced it all breaks down by March.

We are on track for only the 4th winter since 1950 with a -1 or lower AO for Dec, Jan, and Feb. The previous years were 09-10, 76-77, and 69-70. But it’s unprecedented for this to occur  following a winter with such a strong +AO and polar vortex like we had last year. So the atmosphere continues to exhibit impressive  extremes in this new climate era.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/monthly.ao.index.b50.current.ascii.table

2020  2.419  3.417  2.641  0.928 -0.027 -0.122 -0.412 -0.381  0.631 -0.072  2.086 -1.736
2021 -2.484

2009  0.800 -0.672  0.121  0.973  1.194 -1.351 -1.356 -0.054  0.875 -1.540  0.459 -3.413
2010 -2.587 -4.266 -0.432 -0.275 -0.919 -0.013  0.435 -0.117 -0.865 -0.467 -0.376 -2.631

1976  0.034  1.656  0.587  0.440  0.060  0.328 -0.325  0.559 -0.743 -0.804 -0.087 -2.074
1977 -3.767 -2.010  0.344  1.329  0.104 -0.226 -0.492 -1.412  0.586 -0.009  0.605 -0.240

1969 -2.967 -3.114 -1.582  0.438 -0.720 -0.348  0.410 -0.782 -0.083  0.098  0.326 -1.856
1970 -2.412 -1.325 -2.084  0.302  0.531  0.875  0.139 -0.263  0.030  0.098  0.378 -0.399

 

 

 

[ForestHillWx]

Brief lull and back into moderate snow (radar seems like this is the last batch). Just shoveled had close to 2”. 

[EastonSN+]

18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We are on track for only the 4th winter since 1950 with a -1 or lower AO for Dec, Jan, and Feb. The previous years were 09-10, 76-77, and 69-70. But it’s unprecedented for this to occur  following a winter with such a strong +AO and polar vortex like we had last year. So the atmosphere continues to exhibit impressive  extremes in this new climate era.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/monthly.ao.index.b50.current.ascii.table

2020  2.419  3.417  2.641  0.928 -0.027 -0.122 -0.412 -0.381  0.631 -0.072  2.086 -1.736
2021 -2.484

2009  0.800 -0.672  0.121  0.973  1.194 -1.351 -1.356 -0.054  0.875 -1.540  0.459 -3.413
2010 -2.587 -4.266 -0.432 -0.275 -0.919 -0.013  0.435 -0.117 -0.865 -0.467 -0.376 -2.631

1976  0.034  1.656  0.587  0.440  0.060  0.328 -0.325  0.559 -0.743 -0.804 -0.087 -2.074
1977 -3.767 -2.010  0.344  1.329  0.104 -0.226 -0.492 -1.412  0.586 -0.009  0.605 -0.240

1969 -2.967 -3.114 -1.582  0.438 -0.720 -0.348  0.410 -0.782 -0.083  0.098  0.326 -1.856
1970 -2.412 -1.325 -2.084  0.302  0.531  0.875  0.139 -0.263  0.030  0.098  0.378 -0.399

 

 

 

Would think that rise mid month would signal a potential large event.

[rclab]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

We are on track for only the 4th winter since 1950 with a -1 or lower AO for Dec, Jan, and Feb. The previous years were 09-10, 76-77, and 69-70. But it’s unprecedented for this to occur  following a winter with such a strong +AO and polar vortex like we had last year. So the atmosphere continues to exhibit impressive  extremes in this new climate era.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/monthly.ao.index.b50.current.ascii.table

2020  2.419  3.417  2.641  0.928 -0.027 -0.122 -0.412 -0.381  0.631 -0.072  2.086 -1.736
2021 -2.484

2009  0.800 -0.672  0.121  0.973  1.194 -1.351 -1.356 -0.054  0.875 -1.540  0.459 -3.413
2010 -2.587 -4.266 -0.432 -0.275 -0.919 -0.013  0.435 -0.117 -0.865 -0.467 -0.376 -2.631

1976  0.034  1.656  0.587  0.440  0.060  0.328 -0.325  0.559 -0.743 -0.804 -0.087 -2.074
1977 -3.767 -2.010  0.344  1.329  0.104 -0.226 -0.492 -1.412  0.586 -0.009  0.605 -0.240

1969 -2.967 -3.114 -1.582  0.438 -0.720 -0.348  0.410 -0.782 -0.083  0.098  0.326 -1.856
1970 -2.412 -1.325 -2.084  0.302  0.531  0.875  0.139 -0.263  0.030  0.098  0.378 -0.399

 

 

 

Good morning, BW. I believe you have given us an appropriate substitute for the terms Climate Change/Global Warming: “New Climate Era”. As always ....

[Heisy]

The new king, the icon

 

[bluewave]

54 minutes ago, rclab said:

Good morning, BW. I believe you have given us an appropriate substitute for the terms Climate Change/Global Warming: “New Climate Era”. As always ....

Some of the greatest AO and NAO swings occurred in the decade following the publication of this paper.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/01/090113101200.htm

Swings In North Atlantic Oscillation Variability Linked To Climate Warming

 

January 14, 2009

 

Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

 

Using a 218-year-long temperature record from a Bermuda brain coral, researchers have created the first marine-based reconstruction showing the long-term behavior of one of the most important drivers of climate fluctuations in the North Atlantic.

 

    

Using a 218-year-long temperature record from a Bermuda brain coral, researchers at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) have created the first marine-based reconstruction showing the long-term behavior of one of the most important drivers of climate fluctuations in the North Atlantic.

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a wide-ranging pressure seesaw that drives winter climate over much of North America, Europe and North Africa. Past reconstructions of the NAO have relied mainly on terrestrial, or land-based records, such as tree ring chronologies combined with ice cores and historical climate data. Those records do not fully capture oceanic processes linked to NAO variability, and short instrumental records from relatively few locations limit the understanding of ocean–atmosphere dynamics with regard to NAO behavior.

“By analyzing the coral, we were able to look at changes in the ocean relative to changes on land,” said Nathalie Goodkin, lead author of the study published in the December issue of the journal Nature Geoscience. “Because they are slow growing and have long life-spans, corals can provide high resolution records that are well dated and centuries long.”

As they grow, corals accrete seasonal and annual growth layers, similar to tree rings.  The proportions of trace elements versus the major element (calcium) found in the layers of the skeleton largely depend on the temperature of the seawater in which it was formed.  By analyzing the strontium to calcium ratio in the Bermuda brain coral, Goodkin and colleagues — WHOI scientists Konrad Hughen, Scott Doney and William Curry — were able to reconstruct monthly changes in ocean temperatures and evaluate variability of the NAO during both cold and warm periods from the Little Ice Age (1800–1850) to modern day. 

The research team found the variability of the NAO decade-to-decade (multi-decadal scale) has been larger, swinging more wildly, during the late twentieth century than in the early 1800s, suggesting that variability is linked to the mean temperature of the Northern Hemisphere. This confirms variability previously reported in past terrestrial reconstructions.

“When the Industrial Revolution begins and atmospheric temperature becomes warmer, the NAO takes on a much stronger pattern in longer-term behavior,” said Goodkin. “That was suspected before in the instrumental records, but this is the first time it has been documented in records from both the ocean and the atmosphere.”

The North Atlantic Oscillation is described by the NAO index, calculated as a weighted difference between the polar low and the subtropical high during the winter season. (For more information about the NAO index, see animation.) In a positive phase, both the low-pressure zone over Iceland and high pressure over the Azores are intensified, resulting in changes in the strength, incidence, and pathway of winter storms crossing the Atlantic. In a negative phase, a weak subtropical high and a weak Icelandic low results in fewer and weaker winter storms crossing on a more west-east pathway.

The NAO index varies from year to year, but also exhibits a tendency to remain in one phase for intervals lasting more than a decade. An unusually long period of positive phase between 1970-2000 led to the suggestion that global warming was affecting the behavior of the NAO.

“Anthropogenic (human-related) warming does not appear to be altering whether the NAO is in a positive or negative phase at multi-decadal time scales,” said WHOI paleoclimatologist Konrad Hughen. “It does seem to be increasing variability. Clearly, this has implications for the future.”

“As temperatures get warmer, there’s potential for more violent swings of the NAO — the phases becoming even more positive and even more negative,” Hughen added. “If the NAO locks more into these patterns, intense storms will become more intense and droughts will become more severe.”

The climatic influence of the NAO extends from the eastern United States to Western Europe, impacting human activities such as shipping, oil drilling, fisheries, hydroelectric power generation and coastal management. Improving the ability to predict shifts in the phase and intensity of the NAO is a prerequisite to mitigating the economic impacts of future climate change.

While additional modeling and palaeoclimatic studies are needed, a broad distribution of marine records could advance our knowledge of NAO variability and serve to improve future projections, said Goodkin, now an assistant professor in the Department of Earth Sciences at the University of Hong Kong.

A WHOI Ocean and Climate Change Institute Fellowship, and grants from the National Science Foundation and Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution supported this work.