bluewave Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 The coming pattern is a great example of we need extreme blocking these days to get really cold around here. This will be one of the strongest west based blocks at 500 mb that we have seen during the month of February. Models have a 5.5 SD west based block in the coming days. 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Snowing again! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Wild guess, but looking at some stuff this morning. Window for a big one 15th - 18th timeframe. JMO. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 4 hours ago, snowman19 said: Famous last words ;-) Ready for some brutal cold air ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 18 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Wild guess, but looking at some stuff this morning. Window for a big one 15th - 18th timeframe. JMO. Surprising to see the Euro drop it considering how good the ensembles looked at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Morning thoughts... Today will be mostly cloudy and cool. Some areas could still experience a snow flurries or snow showers. Clouds could begin to break during the day. Temperatures will likely top out in the upper 30s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 35° Newark: 36° Philadelphia: 36° Tomorrow will be mostly sunny and a bit milder. In the extended range, there remains a possibility that another storm could impact the region late in the weekend or early next week, though the spread among EPS members has widened since the 2/2 12z cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 53 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Wild guess, but looking at some stuff this morning. Window for a big one 15th - 18th timeframe. JMO. We saw s SE jackpot shift from the12-17 event to the recent one on 1-31 to 2-2. BGM was the epicenter on 12-17 and that moved over to Northern NJ with the recent storm. The blocking was weaker in December so this allowed the low to tuck in over Southern NJ. The blocking intensified this past weekend and the low tucked in a little further east of ACY. Now with the strongest blocking of the whole season and years coming up, maybe the storm track will shift more SE toward the BM. So perhaps at some point this month ,we get the maximum snowfall totals from a KU setting up on Long Island to Southern New England. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Wantage NJ (this part) 8a report 0.2" since midnight. snowing lightly at 8a. I don't consider as direct to the storm of 2/1-2 (indirect yes, direct not me). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 EWR 18.7" comes on 1.86 LE Rutgers in New Brunswick recorded 14 inches with 2.17 LE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 1 hour ago, bluewave said: We saw s SE jackpot shift from the12-17 event to the recent one on 1-31 to 2-2. BGM was the epicenter on 12-17 and that moved over to Northern NJ with the recent storm. The blocking was weaker in December so this allowed the low to tuck in over Southern NJ. The blocking intensified this past weekend and the low tucked in a little further east of ACY. Now with the strongest blocking of the whole season and years coming up, maybe the storm track will shift more SE toward the BM. So perhaps at some point this month ,we get the maximum snowfall totals from a KU setting up on Long Island to Southern New England. What do you think the odds are for another KU event? I'm guessing pretty good though the PNA isn't great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 1 hour ago, bluewave said: We saw s SE jackpot shift from the12-17 event to the recent one on 1-31 to 2-2. BGM was the epicenter on 12-17 and that moved over to Northern NJ with the recent storm. The blocking was weaker in December so this allowed the low to tuck in over Southern NJ. The blocking intensified this past weekend and the low tucked in a little further east of ACY. Now with the strongest blocking of the whole season and years coming up, maybe the storm track will shift more SE toward the BM. So perhaps at some point this month ,we get the maximum snowfall totals from a KU setting up on Long Island to Southern New England. Or hitting the Mid-Atlantic with 2 feet of snow while giving NYC some cirrus clouds and flurries. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 GGEM at 210 hours: 1060 mb high on the Saskatchewan-Montana border. It’s not often one sees such strong highs in North America, even on the guidance. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 9 hours ago, snowman19 said: Famous last words ;-) Southeast ridge update? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 3, 2021 Author Share Posted February 3, 2021 26 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Southeast ridge update? Ask the new Euro ROTFLMFAOOO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Ask the new Euro ROTFLMFAOOO Ain't happening. Big dip in the AO/NAO coming up. Models will flip back. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 7 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Ask the new Euro ROTFLMFAOOO Seriously ? This is not cutting with the huge block. Its either going to reform off the coast or shred this. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 3, 2021 Author Share Posted February 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Ain't happening. Big dip in the AO/NAO coming up. Models will flip back. You can absolutely have a strong SE ridge along with a -NAO and -AO. It’s totally false, total bunk that a SE Ridge can’t co-exist along with a -NAO and -AO. It’s a fairy tale wishcast that the weenies spread on twitter, they need to start it with “Once upon a time, it’s impossible to have a SE Ridge and a -NAO” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 6 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Ask the new Euro ROTFLMFAOOO Winter's over.... 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: You can absolutely have a strong SE ridge along with a -NAO and -AO. It’s totally false, total bunk that a SE Ridge can’t co-exist along with a -NAO and -AO. It’s a fairy tale wishcast that the weenies spread on twitter, they need to start it with “Once upon a time, it’s impossible to have a SE Ridge and a -NAO” Not when it's as strong as depicted. The storm will likely turn into a SWFE or Miller B. We just saw how what was supposed to be a huge ridge post Mondays storm got turned into a frontal passage and that's without a big Greenland block. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 8 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Ask the new Euro ROTFLMFAOOO How’s the February Niña pattern looking? 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Very cold on the euro next week with the TPV over Minnesota. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Haha 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 30 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Not when it's as strong as depicted. The storm will likely turn into a SWFE or Miller B. We just saw how what was supposed to be a huge ridge post Mondays storm got turned into a frontal passage and that's without a big Greenland block. The models have been falling the last week or two going too strong on any SE ridging beyond day 4-5. Just 5 days ago models had highs in the 60s and 70s tomorrow across the SE US in SC NC GA and now they’ll be lucky to crack 55. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 The CPC GEFS AO forecast is correcting more negative with the extreme 500 mb blocking pattern. Looks like a -4 to -5 SD drop coming up. We have a nice track record for snowstorms following winter AO drops of this magnitude in the past. But as always, how soon the biggest storm arrives following these big AO drops can be quite variable. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 14 minutes ago, bluewave said: The CPC GEFS AO forecast is correcting more negative with the extreme 500 mb blocking pattern. Looks like a -4 to -5 SD drop coming up. We have a nice track record for snowstorms following winter AO drops of this magnitude in the past. But as always, how soon the biggest storm arrives following these big AO drops can be quite variable. Eps shows a Miller b next weekend 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Been hyping it, but IMO it’s after the block is done retrograding and low heights head into 50/50 region that I think a big event is possible. Look at the end of the euro run. Elongated tpv with HP behind it. PNA ridge building, if any wave in between there is strong enough it would be perfect 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Eps shows a Miller b next weekend Problem is the Tpv is west of lakes this will make it tough for any low to track south of NYC. Think the gradient will be very close to NYC though but I’d favor SNE and NNE right now. Looks more like a SWFE to me. HP is not in an idea location because of the ULL positioning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Funny how the troll was quiet when everybody recvd 12+ from the latest storm that wasn't going to happen because winter is over. LMAO. 4 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Snow has largely disappeared for the next 10 days. EURO is Sub-Zero here on the 13th and the CMC and GFS are only near 20 degrees. Who will surrender first? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Only the 4th time since 2010 that NYC went 40 days without reaching 55°. Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature < 55 for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Run Length Ending Date Period of record: 2010-01-01 to 2021-02-02 1 65 2015-03-10 2 63 2011-02-13 3 40 2010-03-06 - 40 2021-02-03 4 33 2014-03-07 5 28 2018-03-29 6 26 2019-03-13 7 24 2010-01-24 8 23 2018-01-11 - 23 2013-01-13 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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