HVSnowLover Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Yep GFS caved. Precip barely into NJ this run. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, NEG NAO said: Raining in NJ but snowing on Virginia Beach. Nice Dynamics down south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Yep GFS caved. Precip barely into NJ this run. its basically the same as 6Z but rain along the jersey coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Raining in NJ but snowing on Virginia Beach. Nice Dynamics down south. weird to say the least for late January - in fact this setup is one for the books............or is this model off its rocker ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: weird to say the least for late January - in fact this setup is one for the books............ Yea pretty unusual for NJ coast to be raining with a 982 low in January. It is the GFS but we've also seen odd things the last two winters. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 12Z GFSv16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: 12Z GFSv16 What a cruel joke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: What a cruel joke At least that version of the gfs is snowing in NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 18 minutes ago, MJO812 said: What a cruel joke yea and the Canadian is in on the joke too at 12Z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Poor DC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 11 minutes ago, Rjay said: Poor DC At least they'll stop the snowless streak but yea not looking like a major storm for them at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 12Z GEFS Precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 8 minutes ago, bluewave said: There may be a silver lining for us from this event. I believe this is the first cold season 960s class low south of 38 N off the East Coast since 2018. The coastal storm track has been nearly dormant the last few years. So perhaps this is a precursor storm for something closer to the BM in February or March. In any event, it looks like hurricane force wind warnings will be required for that part of the Atlantic this week. So something for shipping interests to avoid. I normally do not trust models, even at this range handling vorts in Canada but in this case since the vort is basically already there you'd think its being sampled correctly...the wildcard could be the shortwave when it comes ashore in the west being sampled and being much more potent but that likely won't save us up here, it could save S NJ/S PA and DCA though I think if that ends up being more vigorous and is able to get the system more north before its shoved out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 3 hours ago, HVSnowLover said: Yea pretty unusual for NJ coast to be raining with a 982 low in January. It is the GFS but we've also seen odd things the last two winters. cold air is marginal. Will have to come down heavy to stick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Why is it that even if all the models were showing a direct hit we would not be the least bit surprised of a shift a few hundred miles to screw us? YES, I get what the models are showing and a miss makes perfect sense at this time, but the models aren't close to perfect at this range and enough of a shift could still happen that gets us into the good snows. Could also miss further south or develop too late, but this will hold my interest until at least the 00z runs tomorrow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Seeing this trend south and weaker makes me feel less bad about missing out but I do feel bad for DC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 25, 2021 Author Share Posted January 25, 2021 It's not over, but not looking good for much if any snow here Thursday. GEPS and EPS led the way on being down for this event. Again not over, but nothing much enticing, Which means, enjoy whatever we get Tuesday-Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 8 hours ago, HVSnowLover said: At least they'll stop the snowless streak but yea not looking like a major storm for them at this point At this point WDC is within 10 days of setting their longest snow-less streak so why bother breaking it now? Go for the gold, I'm hoping Thursdays storm hits Hilton Head. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 25, 2021 Author Share Posted January 25, 2021 Other than band or two of flurries in the eastern part of our forum Thursday, it looks like this will be too little too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Gfs did horrible with this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Its amazing how the 1st wave is trending north but the 2nd wave can't. The PV comes down and ruins the 2nd wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 its weird-CT/MA/RI now do well with the storm, initially it was questionable whether the dry air would keep precip out. Now the initial wave comes so far north due to the SE ridge.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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