wdrag Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Low pressure in the Virginia's late Wednesday will get picked up by an intensifying short wave moving east across the Mid Atlantic states Thursday and become a pretty good sized nor'easter as it departs the mid Atlantic coast Thursday afternoon. Does development occur fast enough to bring significant wind driven snow to a part of the NYC forum (rain or snow LI/NJ coast?)? 12z/23 GEFS is fairly robust on qpf, but further south than it's 00z/23 version, while 12z/23 EPS and GEPS are indicating too little too late. One small caveat: the low levels should remain fairly moist after the Tuesday - Tuesday night ( 26th) event (whatever it is) and there may be some advance snow or snow grains/freezing drizzle/drizzle late Wednesday or Wednesday night, in part related to leftover moisture and some sfc convergence. That too is an unknown. Added the WPC day shift forecast qpf and chance of 3+" of snow (darker green). Will update Monday the 25th, when some of the nor'easter threat to our area has resolved itself. Also added the NAEFS qpf... seems a little high near and north of I80 but it could happen. Also added the 12z/23 GEFS 500MB spaghetti for 12z/Thursday. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 My prediction is it misses southeast but would watch closely on LI or the Jersey Coast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Gfs about 1-2 inches for nyc, the good stuff still stays south of MD/PA border 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 18 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Gfs about 1-2 inches for nyc, the good stuff still stays south of MD/PA border I'm about as south as you can get and still be in NY state so it looks like we could get something here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 33 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: My prediction is it misses southeast but would watch closely on LI or the Jersey Coast Agree at hour 114 looks like we are in for at least a SECS then after that forgetaboutit.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, NEG NAO said: Agree at hour 114 looks like we are in for at least a SECS then after that forgetaboutit.......... we're already in the blue by then, should be good for a couple of inches here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: Agree at hour 114 looks like we are in for at least a SECS then after that forgetaboutit.......... If only it went NE instead of East, even ENE wed probably get a few inches but due east will shunt the precip away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: we're already in the blue by then, should be good for a couple of inches here yea but in many other instances a look like that at 114 turns into a SECS - but not this time............as of right now - need major changes in the atmospheric setup....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Looks like a lot of rain for DC to start but once it bombs out the rain/snow line really crashes, very dynamic storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 19 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: If only it went NE instead of East, even ENE wed probably get a few inches but due east will shunt the precip away. For those who are south of I 78 in NJ maybe a few inches - but where you are less then that but of course we are just evaluating this particular run of a unreliable model..OP 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 18Z GFSv16 - you would think this would be at least a SECS here too close to write this off completely on this model run..especially when we are still almost 5 days out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 12 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: 18Z GFSv16 - you would think this would be at least a SECS here too close to write this off completely on this model run..especially when we are still almost 5 days out Yea I don’t think it’s being written off completely but I think people would become interested if any model other than the gfs was even showing it this close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 18Z GEFS Total Precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 18 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Yea I don’t think it’s being written off completely but I think people would become interested if any model other than the gfs was even showing it this close. The GFS usually isn’t correct when it’s further north than the Euro, CMC, and UKMET 120 hrs out. The red flag is that the GFS usually has a suppression bias with our biggest coastal storms. So when it’s an amped outlier, it usually corrects to the other models as we get closer to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: The GFS has never been correct when it was further north than the Euro, CMC, and UKMET 120 hrs out. The red flag is that the GFS usually has a suppression bias with our biggest coastal storms. So when it’s an amped outlier, it usually corrects to the other models as we get closer to the event. It is all about TPV. You would think this will come north given the state of the blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: The GFS has never been correct when it was further north than the Euro, CMC, and UKMET 120 hrs out. The red flag is that the GFS usually has a suppression bias with our biggest coastal storms. So when it’s an amped outlier, it usually corrects to the other models as we get closer to the event. But its amazing that when I view some prominent online METS I always see them using the GFS as their model of choice in their videos........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: But its amazing that when I view some prominent online METS I always see them using the GFS as their model of choice in their videos........ yeah I don't get it-I know the Euro was typically a pay model so maybe that was part of it-but how many times have you seen people buy into the GFS OTS bias only to get burned? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 23 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It is all about TPV. You would think this will come north given the state of the blocking. There is a limit on how far north this one can come. The ridge is too far to the east in the Plains. We also have a strong -AO and 50/50 low with and TPV pressing south from Hudson Bay. The due east motion off the coast would also tend to limit the deeper moisture from getting up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 4 hours ago, NEG NAO said: 18Z GEFS Total Precip 0z gfs came a little south, absolute monster down to 969 in the Atlantic but nothing for this subforum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 13 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: 0z gfs came a little south, absolute monster down to 969 in the Atlantic but nothing for this subforum It’s getting the boot straight east if not ESE at some point. Blue wave listed the reasons. Hopefully it can gain a little latitude to off the Delmarva before that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 4 hours ago, bluewave said: There is a limit on how far north this one can come. The ridge is too far to the east in the Plains. We also have a strong -AO and 50/50 low with and TPV pressing south from Hudson Bay. The due east motion off the coast would also tend to limit the deeper moisture from getting up here. Also looks like a badly timed reinforcement on the 50-50 low to press the confluence down. Plenty of time for it to change but right now not ideal. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 It’s sort of funny. Who would ever look at the GFS 108 hour panel and think that storm would be mostly a miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: It’s sort of funny. Who would ever look at the GFS 108 hour panel and think that storm would be mostly a miss Depends how you view it, understanding this is a bowling ball system and not a true coastal it’s not surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, HVSnowLover said: Depends how you view it, understanding this is a bowling ball system and not a true coastal it’s not surprising. and we are the gutter on the alley........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 6 hours ago, bluewave said: The GFS usually isn’t correct when it’s further north than the Euro, CMC, and UKMET 120 hrs out. The red flag is that the GFS usually has a suppression bias with our biggest coastal storms. So when it’s an amped outlier, it usually corrects to the other models as we get closer to the event. wasnt this also the case with the early Feb 2010 event? a notorious and perhaps the most infamous suppressed storm, this one is like a flurry compared to that behemoth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 6 hours ago, bluewave said: There is a limit on how far north this one can come. The ridge is too far to the east in the Plains. We also have a strong -AO and 50/50 low with and TPV pressing south from Hudson Bay. The due east motion off the coast would also tend to limit the deeper moisture from getting up here. wheres that semipermanent SE Ridge when we need it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 24, 2021 Author Share Posted January 24, 2021 Good Sunday morning everyone, Jan 24. I dropped the rain out of this Thursday 28th topic. Otherwise I leave with two WPC graphics from their overnight shift (chance of 3+" of snow --see legend-chance is in the 10-29% category for the southeast part of our NYC forum, and their QPF forecast). I see this as a grazer, at worst ,between LI-I80 and I195 (TTN east). There could be a period of snow or flurries up to I80/LI Thursday morning midday- but otherwise so far, guidance suggests mostly a miss to our southeast- development just a little too late. However, do monitor future guidance. There still is a chance of a track that is a little closer. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 I think the GFS will cave at 12Z. The NAM looked okay at 84 but it was going to be a miss I think, more so than the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I think the GFS will cave at 12Z. The NAM looked okay at 84 but it was going to be a miss I think, more so than the GFS The PV is too far south on the Nam. It would crush the system as it heads north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 16 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I think the GFS will cave at 12Z. The NAM looked okay at 84 but it was going to be a miss I think, more so than the GFS this is as close as it got at 6Z to refresh everyones memory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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