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Jan 24-26th Potential Something Part 2


Chicago Storm
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It's just an interesting choice thats all. I'm sure its a confidence thing, as the watches as posted are really only for the areas that are consistently modeled to receive 10-12" or more. I can see some benefits for doing that, such as getting the word out earlier for those most likely to receive high end impacts, but the issue I see with that is conflicting messaging by issuing watches on the fringes later on. It would seem logical to just issue two watches with different criteria, especially when the ceiling is so high. I mean this isn't a 5-7" storm with no wind. Some areas could feasibly see north of 14" especially if convective elements and banding play out, in addition to wind concerns that flirt with blizzard criteria. Their reasoning is probably confidence based as stated, but imo, with this storm that may not be the best approach. Best to just get the word out, you can always modify the watches later on.

 

 

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1 minute ago, hlcater said:

It's just an interesting choice thats all. I'm sure its a confidence thing, as the watches as posted are really only for the areas that are consistently modeled to receive 10-12" or more. I can see some benefits for doing that, such as getting the word out earlier for those most likely to receive high end impacts, but the issue I see with that is conflicting messaging by issuing watches on the fringes later on. It would seem logical to just issue two watches with different criteria, especially when the ceiling is so high. I mean this isn't a 5-7" storm with no wind. Some areas could feasibly see north of 14" especially if convective elements and banding play out, in addition to wind concerns that flirt with blizzard criteria. Their reasoning is probably confidence based, but imo, with this storm that may not be the best approach.

 

 

Mt Holly hoisted watches 72 hours prior to 12/17 for the reasons you mentioned and it was a total bust around Philly. I don’t disagree with you, just saying it happens even when things look great.

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Just now, mimillman said:

Mt Holly hoisted watches 72 hours prior to 12/17 for the reasons you mentioned and it was a total bust around Philly. I don’t disagree with you, just saying it happens even when things look great.

With storms like this, I really do think that's a risk worth taking. I'd rather overwarn because that way you're afforded some wiggle room if that band shifts 40-50 miles north. It's one thing to warn something and bust completely, but I'd argue it's another to be liberal with watches in a high ceiling scenario to avoid conflicting messaging by issuing separate watches at separate times. I'd agree most of the time, but when real threats are on the table, it's best to be liberal.

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from KLOT

For snow totals, we`re still too far to reasonably push
deterministic numbers far and wide, but the likelihood of over 4
inches for much of the area north of I-80 from Monday afternoon -
Tuesday morning is fairly high. For 6-8 inches, that potential is
there and hence why about one more shift of seeing that we will be
ready for a Watch, but just how much of a footprint is still
unknown, including northeast Illinois and especially far
northwest Indiana.

The snow type will be a wetter one, with ratios in the 7:1 to 10:1
possibly all the way through Monday night. Tuesday should see
ratios inch slower up under cooling mid-level profiles. With
northeast winds gusting to 30 mph Monday night (near 40 mph
possible near the lake), this seems like it could be the character
of event where wet snow is plastered on signs/stoplights/windows.
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15 minutes ago, RyanDe680 said:

Out of curious, how much deeper was the GHD pressure this far out?

Not sure I understand the wording of your question, and not sure which GHD storm you are referencing, but the GHD 2011 surface low bottomed out under 1000 mb as it appears this one will do.  Big difference is that GHD had a 1050+ mb surface high that only gradually weakened, leading to a very impressive pressure gradient.  GHD 2015 was also under 1000 mb, but had a weaker surface high.

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8 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

For Hoosier, the 21z RAP has over a foot of snow already at 00z Tue for much of southern IA with snow continuing.  

 

It all seems to be coming together out there.  May be flirting with an all-timer where the max band occurs.

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7 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Except the 5" difference for Madison, lol. I've seen anything from over 9" to less than 0.5" on the solutions posted within just the last couple hours. @madwx, make it make sense!

That cutoff on the para would be so painful. You guys get 9 while I get like 3. That would suck if that actually happened.

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4 minutes ago, Geoboy645 said:

That cutoff on the para would be so painful. You guys get 9 while I get like 3. That would suck if that actually happened.

It seems like steep gradients in totals along both the north and south sides of the "jackpot" band are just how snowstorms work in this region. I'm guessing it's the -NAO block suppression keeping the meat of this south of us, while it's mixing issues on the south edge.

Euro had several consecutive runs with Madison getting over 11" going into Thursday morning, then dropped us to less than 2".

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I was briefed in on DVN's thought process today and I don't mind sharing some details:

First off, they had to go into unplanned service backup, so ARX actually had to spin up and do all grids and products, except probably graphics.

I think the word is that they felt they had time for the counties east of those they put in the watch to give next shift one more look. DVN has been aggressive in the past with watch issuance (they were very bullish with early watch for failed event last Feb), so I was personally surprised they didn't issue up to the LOT CWA. Our lead forecaster today would've been fine going with a watch into our CWA.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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33 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Not sure I understand the wording of your question, and not sure which GHD storm you are referencing, but the GHD 2011 surface low bottomed out under 1000 mb as it appears this one will do.  Big difference is that GHD had a 1050+ mb surface high that only gradually weakened, leading to a very impressive pressure gradient.  GHD 2015 was also under 1000 mb, but had a weaker surface high.

Yeah I was referring to the original... that's what I was looking for thanks...there's no real gradient here to work with like that storm did and all there is to contend with is NAO block

 

Be interesting to overlay this storm track with that one when all is said and done.  

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1 minute ago, RCNYILWX said:

I was briefed in on DVN's thought process today and I don't mind sharing some details:

First off, they had to go into unplanned service backup, so ARX actually had to spin up and do all grids and products, except probably graphics.

I think the word is that they felt they had time for the counties east of those they put in the watch to give next shift one more look. DVN has been aggressive in the past with watch issuance (they were very bullish with early watch for failed event last Feb), so I was personally surprised they didn't issue up to the LOT CWA. Our lead forecaster today would've been fine going with a watch into our CWA.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

All in due time. Inevitable products will be issued. Now the totals in the watches on the other hand.... 

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