hlcater Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 It's just an interesting choice thats all. I'm sure its a confidence thing, as the watches as posted are really only for the areas that are consistently modeled to receive 10-12" or more. I can see some benefits for doing that, such as getting the word out earlier for those most likely to receive high end impacts, but the issue I see with that is conflicting messaging by issuing watches on the fringes later on. It would seem logical to just issue two watches with different criteria, especially when the ceiling is so high. I mean this isn't a 5-7" storm with no wind. Some areas could feasibly see north of 14" especially if convective elements and banding play out, in addition to wind concerns that flirt with blizzard criteria. Their reasoning is probably confidence based as stated, but imo, with this storm that may not be the best approach. Best to just get the word out, you can always modify the watches later on. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 18z GEFS look great. Southern Iowa...wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, hlcater said: It's just an interesting choice thats all. I'm sure its a confidence thing, as the watches as posted are really only for the areas that are consistently modeled to receive 10-12" or more. I can see some benefits for doing that, such as getting the word out earlier for those most likely to receive high end impacts, but the issue I see with that is conflicting messaging by issuing watches on the fringes later on. It would seem logical to just issue two watches with different criteria, especially when the ceiling is so high. I mean this isn't a 5-7" storm with no wind. Some areas could feasibly see north of 14" especially if convective elements and banding play out, in addition to wind concerns that flirt with blizzard criteria. Their reasoning is probably confidence based, but imo, with this storm that may not be the best approach. Mt Holly hoisted watches 72 hours prior to 12/17 for the reasons you mentioned and it was a total bust around Philly. I don’t disagree with you, just saying it happens even when things look great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 23, 2021 Author Share Posted January 23, 2021 18z GEFS Mean. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, mimillman said: Mt Holly hoisted watches 72 hours prior to 12/17 for the reasons you mentioned and it was a total bust around Philly. I don’t disagree with you, just saying it happens even when things look great. With storms like this, I really do think that's a risk worth taking. I'd rather overwarn because that way you're afforded some wiggle room if that band shifts 40-50 miles north. It's one thing to warn something and bust completely, but I'd argue it's another to be liberal with watches in a high ceiling scenario to avoid conflicting messaging by issuing separate watches at separate times. I'd agree most of the time, but when real threats are on the table, it's best to be liberal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Out of curious, how much deeper was the GHD pressure this far out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Re 18Z GEFS: my professional take is I hope that vibrant pink color gets all the way to my back yard. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, Baum said: my professional take is I hope that vibrant pink color gets all the way to my back yard. Being that you're about 10-15 miles to my west, I second that. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 6 minutes ago, mimillman said: 18z GEFS look great. Southern Iowa...wow Pay homage to the lake for some enhancement around here. I think we’d be cut 30% without it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 5 minutes ago, weathafella said: Pay homage to the lake for some enhancement around here. I think we’d be cut 30% without it. Welcome to Chicago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 from KLOT For snow totals, we`re still too far to reasonably push deterministic numbers far and wide, but the likelihood of over 4 inches for much of the area north of I-80 from Monday afternoon - Tuesday morning is fairly high. For 6-8 inches, that potential is there and hence why about one more shift of seeing that we will be ready for a Watch, but just how much of a footprint is still unknown, including northeast Illinois and especially far northwest Indiana. The snow type will be a wetter one, with ratios in the 7:1 to 10:1 possibly all the way through Monday night. Tuesday should see ratios inch slower up under cooling mid-level profiles. With northeast winds gusting to 30 mph Monday night (near 40 mph possible near the lake), this seems like it could be the character of event where wet snow is plastered on signs/stoplights/windows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 For Hoosier, the 21z RAP has over a foot of snow already at 00z Tue for much of southern IA with snow continuing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, mimillman said: Welcome to Chicago It’s like our ocean enhancement. Hoping for days and days of snow but would like to be home by Friday..lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 13 minutes ago, weathafella said: Pay homage to the lake for some enhancement around here. I think we’d be cut 30% without it. Always a wild card though..I never count on it happening verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 53 minutes ago, hlcater said: and the para. Essentially in lock step with the operational. Except the 5" difference for Madison, lol. I've seen anything from over 9" to less than 0.5" on the solutions posted within just the last couple hours. @madwx, make it make sense! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 15 minutes ago, RyanDe680 said: Out of curious, how much deeper was the GHD pressure this far out? Not sure I understand the wording of your question, and not sure which GHD storm you are referencing, but the GHD 2011 surface low bottomed out under 1000 mb as it appears this one will do. Big difference is that GHD had a 1050+ mb surface high that only gradually weakened, leading to a very impressive pressure gradient. GHD 2015 was also under 1000 mb, but had a weaker surface high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 8 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: For Hoosier, the 21z RAP has over a foot of snow already at 00z Tue for much of southern IA with snow continuing. It all seems to be coming together out there. May be flirting with an all-timer where the max band occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 7 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: Except the 5" difference for Madison, lol. I've seen anything from over 9" to less than 0.5" on the solutions posted within just the last couple hours. @madwx, make it make sense! That cutoff on the para would be so painful. You guys get 9 while I get like 3. That would suck if that actually happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Mixing to I-80 in the LOT cwa at the end of the RAP run. Not necessarily a very useful model that far out though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 4 minutes ago, Geoboy645 said: That cutoff on the para would be so painful. You guys get 9 while I get like 3. That would suck if that actually happened. It seems like steep gradients in totals along both the north and south sides of the "jackpot" band are just how snowstorms work in this region. I'm guessing it's the -NAO block suppression keeping the meat of this south of us, while it's mixing issues on the south edge. Euro had several consecutive runs with Madison getting over 11" going into Thursday morning, then dropped us to less than 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 23, 2021 Author Share Posted January 23, 2021 18z GEM bumped north again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Still some clunkers dragging things down, but 7.5” SREF mean at ORD with a bunch in double digits. This has all the ingredients to be an over performer, and I think somewhere in LOT will crack a foot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Still some clunkers dragging things down, but 7.5” SREF mean at ORD with a bunch in double digits. This has all the ingredients to be an over performer, and I think somewhere in LOT will crack a foot. It’ll be in northern LOT the way things are headed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 4 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 18z GEM bumped north again. Just wanted to point out that darker red swath in Iowa is 50 mm qpf, or 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, mimillman said: It’ll be in northern LOT the way things are headed I really like the area between mby and RFD based on trends. But of course, am waiting on high res models to inevitably shift things a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 I was briefed in on DVN's thought process today and I don't mind sharing some details:First off, they had to go into unplanned service backup, so ARX actually had to spin up and do all grids and products, except probably graphics.I think the word is that they felt they had time for the counties east of those they put in the watch to give next shift one more look. DVN has been aggressive in the past with watch issuance (they were very bullish with early watch for failed event last Feb), so I was personally surprised they didn't issue up to the LOT CWA. Our lead forecaster today would've been fine going with a watch into our CWA. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 33 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Not sure I understand the wording of your question, and not sure which GHD storm you are referencing, but the GHD 2011 surface low bottomed out under 1000 mb as it appears this one will do. Big difference is that GHD had a 1050+ mb surface high that only gradually weakened, leading to a very impressive pressure gradient. GHD 2015 was also under 1000 mb, but had a weaker surface high. Yeah I was referring to the original... that's what I was looking for thanks...there's no real gradient here to work with like that storm did and all there is to contend with is NAO block Be interesting to overlay this storm track with that one when all is said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Just wanted to point out that darker red swath in Iowa is 50 mm qpf, or 2" Oof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxDanny Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, RCNYILWX said: I was briefed in on DVN's thought process today and I don't mind sharing some details: First off, they had to go into unplanned service backup, so ARX actually had to spin up and do all grids and products, except probably graphics. I think the word is that they felt they had time for the counties east of those they put in the watch to give next shift one more look. DVN has been aggressive in the past with watch issuance (they were very bullish with early watch for failed event last Feb), so I was personally surprised they didn't issue up to the LOT CWA. Our lead forecaster today would've been fine going with a watch into our CWA. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk All in due time. Inevitable products will be issued. Now the totals in the watches on the other hand.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 18z RGEM. Similar to the para GFS. It has some substantial lake plumes hitting the western shore at this time which would probably dump a couple additional inches in lucky spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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