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Jan 24-26th Potential Something Part 2


Chicago Storm
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2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I think the takeaway for me is that once again, it appears we are going to fail to put the best band in the I-80 corridor of eastern LOT/northwest Indiana.  Probably been a few years now (Feb 2018?) since that corridor jackpotted in a significant snowstorm in the LOT cwa.  But at least it appears that several inches is likely to occur.  

I do not love the look on the RGEM or even the 12z euro for that matter in terms of orientation of the axis of heaviest snows. The RGEM is relatively alone for the time being but I would not want to see other models trend similarly.

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9 minutes ago, mimillman said:

I do not love the look on the RGEM or even the 12z euro for that matter in terms of orientation of the axis of heaviest snows. The RGEM is relatively alone for the time being but I would not want to see other models trend similarly.

Same here. A more sw to ne oriented snow band would screw a lot of us. Dry slot galore

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KLOT brief update

325 PM CST

Sunday Night through Saturday...

A short AFD for now and then will send a more thorough one with
the scientific details in a bit. The bottom line is that the
message for Monday-Tuesday continues near similar, with some more
honing in on details as possible. The potential for heavy snow is
increasing for northern Illinois, it`s just how much of the area
north of I-80 is favored and the duration of the snow into Tuesday,
while the confidence in a mix for the southern CWA has also
increased further. This still does not look like a significant ice
event due to the character of the system, but at least minor
icing is likely. For the area most favored for the heavy snow,
at this time no Winter Storm Watch given still 48 hours from the
heaviest snow and the uncertainties, but if trends continue, one
will likely need to be issued in the next 12-18 hours.

MTF
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5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I think the takeaway for me is that once again, it appears we are going to fail to put the best band in the I-80 corridor of eastern LOT/northwest Indiana.  Probably been a few years now (Feb 2018?) since that corridor jackpotted in a significant snowstorm in the LOT cwa.  But at least it appears that several inches is likely to occur.  

I was really hoping for around 6" or a little more even if we weren't in the main band but it does seem like that's becoming more unlikely. I know this is setting the bar really low but with how the last few years have gone, it would be nice to at least get the grass covered and get a wintery look which appears to be reasonable to expect at this point.

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Just now, cyclone77 said:

Dammit, DVN stalled the east edge of the new winter storm watch about 6 miles west of here at the Rock Island/Whiteside CO border.  Bad omen???  Jk :P

Left out CR too for some reason. I'll almost certainly be in IC for this one, but models are showing a big hit in CR too, especially those that are on the northern end of the spectrum.

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1 minute ago, hlcater said:

Left out CR too for some reason. I'll almost certainly be in IC for this one, but models are showing a big hit in CR too, especially those that are on the northern end of the spectrum.

Yeah if it were up to me I def would have included another row or two of counties up that way.  Can always back it down to an advisory if needed later on, and the risk is worthy of a watch given the potential high impact if directly hit.  

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1 minute ago, cyclone77 said:

Yeah if it were up to me I def would have included another row or two of counties up that way.  Can always back it down to an advisory if needed later on, and the risk is worthy of a watch given the potential high impact if directly hit.  

Exhibit A: The 18z GFS. Absolute crush job for essentially the entire DVN CWA. Chicago folks do well too.

snku_acc.us_mw.png

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23 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

That FRAM map is scary for areas just south of the Calumet region....half inch of ice with possible 40 mph winds.....ouch!

Even though it is FRAM, which is better than looking at the basic freezing rain qpf, I do think it represents the top end scenario.  I still think there could be a band of around/over a quarter inch of ice somewhere, but temps are on the marginal side and profiles aloft don't favor a particularly wide band.  If somebody does get a quarter inch, it may be like 10-20 miles wide.

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Always fun to come in here and see people who aren't meteorologists question the decisions made by the professionals. Easy to be critical when you're hiding behind a screen from a dark corner in the basement.

LOT explained their reasoning for not issuing a watch, I'm sure we'll see DVN's here shortly.  The products look to be consistent with other NWS guidance, particularly from the WPC.

Quote

48-hour probabilities for at least 8" of snow:

198941733_ScreenShot2021-01-23at4_06_43PM.png.197b4104a42e33bce181d3e1aafe7197.png

Surface low track w/ ensemble positions plotted (indicating the amount of spread in both timing and track/location):

lowtrack_ensembles.thumb.gif.34e0ca86d14501d87cef10a2626c5bef.gif

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Always fun to come in here and see people who aren't meteorologists question the decisions made by the professionals. Easy to be critical when you're hiding behind a screen from a dark corner in the basement.

LOT explained their reasoning for not issuing a watch, I'm sure we'll see DVN's here shortly.  The products look to be consistent with other NWS guidance, particularly from the WPC.

you’re on the wrong streets.

 

being a meteorologist does not necessarily make you a professional, nor guarantee you’re good at your job. there are plenty of quality mets, and there are plenty of crappy ones that non-degreed people can outperform. some around here have clearly proven it both ways recently.

 

 

.

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7 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

Always fun to come in here and see people who aren't meteorologists question the decisions made by the professionals. Easy to be critical when you're hiding behind a screen from a dark corner in the basement.

LOT explained their reasoning for not issuing a watch, I'm sure we'll see DVN's here shortly.  The products look to be consistent with other NWS guidance, particularly from the WPC.

48-hour probabilities for at least 8" of snow:

198941733_ScreenShot2021-01-23at4_06_43PM.png.197b4104a42e33bce181d3e1aafe7197.png

Surface low track w/ ensemble positions plotted (indicating the amount of spread in both timing and track/location):

lowtrack_ensembles.thumb.gif.34e0ca86d14501d87cef10a2626c5bef.gif

To be fair to LOT at least, onset of precipitation is later than previously modeled, looking more like Monday late afternoon/early evening. So a watch hoisted in 12 hours makes sense, it’ll probably end up happening in the wee hours of the AM as Ricky alluded to. As for eastern DVN, they’re probably coordinating with LOT

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9 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

For those interested in the lake effect/lake enhancement, 18z GFS keeps it going on IL side into Wednesday lol.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

I was just looking at that and making a gif as you posted.  It is definitely out of the ordinary to not see the low level flow back northwest/west more quickly after the storm departs, but this has been shown on guidance for a while and continues to be shown as the surface high does not come southward into the Midwest quickly.  Wouldn't be surprised to see spits of snow on the western shores of Lake Michigan at least into Wednesday.

floop-gfs-2021012318.sfcwind_mslp.us_mw.gif.954db2effdb6c93bb829ec41d50648e3.gif

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