McHenrySnow Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, RCNYILWX said: I think we're still a bit far out to be concerned about the finer scale details of a particular operational run. There's a pretty good consensus developing on the big picture, which is I-80 and north favored and northern tier looking much better. New ECMWF in a vacuum is less favorable with southward extent, though I'm sure when the ensembles roll we'll see wiggle room within the general consensus of the EPS, that's been rock solid consistent. Takeaway from the prolonged mid-level forcing on Tuesday is it would be a nice way to tack on higher ratio fluff with 850s down around -10C. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Couldn’t agree more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said: Be prepared to be piled on, but you’re used to it, I know. All good. I do think it can come across as a bit selfish when areas near I-80 and IKK may unfortunately miss out on the storm entirely...and at the same time you and I are concerned about not getting 6"+. I think that's what some other posters are alluding to. Mimilliman and baum are good posters, as are most here. It's not personal. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, McHenrySnow said: Their harassment started long before my tag, but thanks for the input. Because of your posts being terrible, nothing has improved with that tag and it actually makes it much harder for those of us also with the tag having to correct your posts. There is a bit of value carried in having that tag attached to your account. 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 23, 2021 Author Share Posted January 23, 2021 Couldn’t agree more. you agree, yet you’re the one that’s getting concerned about the smaller scale details. . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Last 3 runs of the NAM ending at 12z Tuesday. Context matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, Hoosier said: Last 3 runs of the NAM ending at 12z Tuesday. Context matters. As I said, I like the trend. Said it so many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 To everyone else, I apologize if at times I seem a bit hot headed. I do love this hobby and really enjoy the debate that we have. The posts from many of you are very enjoyable to read and I’m very thankful that we have some great Mets on the board participating. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 As I said, I like the trend. Said it so many times.My polite suggestion moving forward is to try to not wear your emotions on your sleeves as much with every post. As red taggers in here, we can add to our credibility by posting in measured tones. Of course everyone in here loves snow, we wouldn't be posting in this thread otherwise, so nothing wrong with alluding to the desire of it to work out for ones area. Just to try to be more objective when discussing the meteorology, which also is to the benefit of everyone trying to learn. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 3 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, mimillman said: To everyone else, I apologize if at times I seem a bit hot headed. I do love this hobby and really enjoy the debate that we have. The posts from many of you are very enjoyable to read and I’m very thankful that we have some great Mets on the board participating. nice try. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 The last page of the thread reminds me of work emails.. Which sux because I come here to get away from those 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Is it still gonna snow? 8 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, ChiTownSnow said: The last page of the thread reminds me of work emails.. Which sux because I come here to get away from those Actually pretty tame. If this thing hiccups somewhere it'll really head off the rails. Plus it occurred during model down time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 New EPS is more concerning for east of Chicago. A majority of members still keep the precip swath intact into Chicago proper, but also majority dampening quicker eastward. We'll have to watch that trend related to shearing of the h5 wave. Feel like at this longitude we'll be okay still, but a bit worried for posters to our east. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wegoweather Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 12 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Is it still gonna snow? Somewhere it is going to snow. Accumulations between a turd duster and a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: New EPS is more concerning for east of Chicago. A majority of members still keep the precip swath intact into Chicago proper, but also majority dampening quicker eastward. We'll have to watch that trend related to shearing of the h5 wave. Feel like at this longitude we'll be okay still, but a bit worried for posters to our east. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk How’s the mean look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIstorm97 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, hlcater said: How’s the mean look? Here ya go 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, hlcater said: How’s the mean look? He got banned a couple of days ago... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 31 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Last 3 runs of the NAM ending at 12z Tuesday. Context matters. I like when you do this - puts perspective. I dont know how you overlay those images, but keep doing it. I think it helps everyone with perspective and to think twice before commenting... wink wink. thanks for doing this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 How’s the mean look?Here you goSent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 First call would be 7-10" for most of Chicagoland. Except 2-3" measured at ORD... just kidding. I feel like this is sort of on the low to middle end of the possibilities and giving enough respect to the shearing/weakening trend with time. Certainly possible it could hold on longer and lead to widespread amounts over 10" in a swath all the way through LOT. But for now, I would put the 12-18" band in places like southern Iowa and extending over the Mississippi River into some of DVN's Illinois counties. Will be curious to see if somebody can come in with 20". 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 23, 2021 Author Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, Hoosier said: Except 2-3" measured at ORD... just kidding. Measuring is in good hands for this one luckily. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, Chicago Storm said: Measuring is in good hands for this one luckily. That's the second time you have said that...is it you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Some Chicagoland/LOT northern IL specific comments re. 12z EPS:Looking at all 51 members, it's pretty clear a few outlier duds are skewing the mean a bit. A majority still bring 6+ at 10:1 across the whole metro. If we saw a lot more duds would be more concerning. The op seems to be leading the way toward prolonging snow on Tuesday with the 700 mb forcing hanging back. My guess is the duds don't have that and merely dampen eastward from shearing of 500 mb vort. If 18z op holds serve from 12z, we should see more EPS members hinting at prolonged snow on Tuesday for the 18z run. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paulie21 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Not sure if this was mentioned but... "All six weather balloon launch sites along the West Coast and northwest Mexico did not report data this morning, for various reasons. Thus, the major system that is going to affect the Midwest and Great Lakes on Sunday night into Tuesday has limited data for forecasters and models to work with. Ugh. Use all morning and afternoon models with even more caution." From Gilbert Sebenste 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 57 minutes ago, beavis1729 said: Yep, agree overall. With that said, I think it's natural to be on edge and worry before the storm...thinking more about what could go wrong vs. what is likely to occur. For northern LOT specifically...a couple days ago it looked like the initial/separate WAA snow tonight would be 2-3", now it may only be a dusting. So, that doesn't help. And, although I know op runs should be taken with a grain of salt at range, there were a couple of op Euro runs showing close to 2 feet in northern LOT...which now is nowhere to be found. It's all relative. Plus, if the storm really does weaken/shear out due to the effects of the block, it's likely to take a bit more southern route...which could favor the heart of the city instead of the northern areas. And, even if lake enhancement does occur, it may tend to favor the lakeside counties instead of McHenry and further west. Again - all else being equal, I think there are still concerns in northern LOT, especially away from the lake...just like there are (different) concerns elsewhere in LOT and northern IN and into MI. That's why we need a true spread-the-wealth storm...so that everyone shares in the fun. I initially thought this storm might be it...but it appears to be transitioning to a narrow swath of heavier snowfall for a lucky few. And by heaviest, I mean 10"+. Not meant to complain...just human nature to be on edge a bit, given the snow drought that many of us have experienced over the last 2-3 years. Its been my experience at least in extreme SE McHenry that we do receive some lake enhancement from some big events 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 10 minutes ago, Paulie21 said: Not sure if this was mentioned but... "All six weather balloon launch sites along the West Coast and northwest Mexico did not report data this morning, for various reasons. Thus, the major system that is going to affect the Midwest and Great Lakes on Sunday night into Tuesday has limited data for forecasters and models to work with. Ugh. Use all morning and afternoon models with even more caution." From Gilbert Sebenste Should let SpaceX handle that too 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crispus Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Not liking the trends from a Peoria standpoint, but if we're not going to get 6", I'd just as soon get as little as possible. Go big or go home away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just got home excited to catch up on this thread and it’s been kind of like reading the comments on a teenybopper YouTube vid. Those contributing solid analysis despite the noise, well done. Still looks good for the metro and still like where I sit. I’ll set my expectations at a realistic 6.5” and enjoy the storm from here on out. Sounds like duration with flakes in the air will be solid. Kids are pumped for an actual snowfall not bungled by sleet and rain with hopes of building an epic snowman. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wegoweather Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Plumes trending up to 7.5 total at ORD. Less than an inch from the first wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, wegoweather said: Plumes trending up to 7.5 at ORD. I spent 20 minutes looking for that - can you post the link from weather.gov? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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